This post contains my analysis on 6 graded events listed for today.
While waiting for Belmont Stakes Day, I’ve started long-term analysis on exactas and how I can possibly spot a triple-digit payoff on them in advance. Having hit a couple of them before, I want to be ahead of this curve if I can.
What exactly am I doing? I am looking at the results of most major and some minor tracks, spotting the top several $2-rate payouts on exactas, then reverse-engineering by handicapping the race to see if I could spot the proper contenders and also see what variables might have contributed to a particular 1-2 finish. I plan to examine a total of 90 races. I’m up to 12 through Friday. By mid-July I expect to complete the analysis.
Now for those stakes races:
at Woodbine: Nassau Stakes
Forest Uproar has the best winning Brisnet # at Woodbine, a 98, which she earned in a G2 race last summer. Fantastic Cousin is a lifetime sprinter moving up to this route distance of a mile. Woodbine is not kind to horses making this move. Her jockey GL Olguin aligned with trainer Reade Baker just once in the last 60 days, and winning that race for an ROI of +20.60. Roxy Gap is also hindered by the sprint-to-route move here. She does get the best winning jockey trainer combo in P Husbands (21%) and Mark Casse (21%). Last race was a G2 stakes win just 3 weeks ago here.
Inglorious has won at 12 furlongs, tied with Marketing Mix for longest distance win of the field. Inglorious is the lone closing horse of the bunch; that fact alone may give her an edge. She’s already the fastest horse to her style, with 2 triple-digit Brisnet scores in the stretch last two races.
Marketing Mix also won at the Grade 2 level, a race at CD last autumn, and threatens to bounce off her 100 Brisnet number (G2 race last month also at CD). She also has best lifetime Brisnet on turf, a 101
Selections: Inglorious, Marketing Mix, Forest Uproar. The morning-line odds do not look promising with value in this race.
This is really a 2-horse race amongst the 6 entered. Belle Of The Hall should be a good surprise. She and the other major contender, Nicole H. own best winning Brisnet # for Belmont at 102. Belle Of The Hall gets the rail position, which has won 24% of the time during the meet, and 33% during the week. Also has the best speed figures on an ‘off’ track such as today’s race will be, a 102. Further she gets the best jockey/trainer combo in JJ Castellano and Tom Albertrani. Nicole H.’s edge comes from winning at the G2 level previous (last year’s Distaff Handicap at Aqueduct), and has the fastest current pace of all horses here (109 and 106 2nd call numbers in last 2 races).
CC’s Pal is the only other who might rate; she has won at 9 furlongs, longer than the other horses have, tho this race is just 6.5 furlongs. Neither CC’s Pal nor Nicole H. worked out before this race. Nicole H. went from a 91 to a 100 score in her last race on 5/26, likely to bounce.
Selections : Belle Of The Hall (early morning line value of 8-1), Nicole H, CC’s Pal.
at Betfair Hollywood Park (I haven’t gotten used to typing Betfair yet): Californian Stakes
Game On Dude comes out of a terrible 12th place finish in the G1 Dubai World Cup 3/31. Well suited to the 9 furlong distance, and has won at 10 furlongs (2010 Santa Anita Handicap). Multiple G1 victories. Morning Line won last year’s Carter Handicap, also G1. Shares the best winning Brisnet at BHP with a 104 win, which was in her last race, a Grade 2 race, 5/5. Prayer For Relief finished in that race to him. Both also earned best all-weather Brisnet numbers of this field, a 103. Both horses could bounce from these efforts, having gained sharply in Brisnet from their prior races. Yet Prayer For Relief just pushed through his 3YO best (100) and he might actually be improving, suggesting great form. He also has best jockey/trainer combo of Bejarano (29%) and Baffert (42%). Kettle Corn, the lone dead closer seems to have the fastest pace of these, in the money last 5 races.
Selections: Prayer For Relief, Kettle Corn, Morning Line. No value here.
Last 3 are at Churchill Downs, under the lights.
Winning Colors Stakes
Good Deed forged lifetime top in her last effort, the 8 Belles Stakes, last month. Still lunder influence of prior effort to that, a 98, Both races pushed past her 2YO best of 97. She led in the 8 Belles until the stretch, finished 2nd. Gleaming is the best in class, winning a 118k statebred race for fillies last year. Beat The Blues could bounce from her last race, moving from an 86 to a 98 (Carousel Stakes win last time out). 2nd in last year’s version of this race, losing by a neck, and posting best Brisnet on this track of this field, a 102. Honey Chile is easily best in form: This sprinter was caught in deep stretch last 2 races. Jockey CJ Lanerie has worked with trainer Wayne Catalano twice in last 60 days, and has won 1, in the money both times. ROI: +2.30. Page Springs is another sprinter who lost speed duels in her last 2 races. She might bounce down from an 85 Brisnet in her last race. Lifetime 5 wins in 7 races, winning first 5 races. Island Bound also with good ROI angle: jockey Leandro Goncalves has worked 10 races with trainer Ian Wilkes, winning 4, while being in the money 6 times. ROI: +7.26 Has won at 7 furlongs. Also winning at 7 furlongs is Fortune Play. She appears to have the fastest speed numbers to her run style in this field.
Track bias for 6 furlongs on dirt here at CD favore pure speed, winning 51% during the meet, and 44% this week. This gives an advantage to Good Deed, Honey Chile, and Page Springs.
Selections: Fortune Play, Honey Chile, Beat the Blues. Pretty good value in this race.
Global Power has the only route wins of the field, which may help in regard to running 6 furlongs. Noble’s Promise is the defending stakes winner, and owns the only Graded stakes victory of the field. Also gets best jockey/trainer combo of CJ Lanerie (24%) and Ken McPeek (18%).
Will’s Wildcat won last year’s Jimmy V Stakes on this track with a 111 score, best of the field at CD. Comes out of the G2 Churchill Downs Stakes as well. Whiskey Rebellion is fresh off reclaim by Akiko Gothard, very positive angle re form. While under Gothard’s initial care, he was 1st, then 4th, then claimed by Amalio Garcia, winning 3 straight after an initial 7th place effort. Also..a risk at bouncing, going from 96 to lifetime best 104 in last 2 races, actually 3rd straight increase in Brisnet, all done at Mountaineer. No works since that 104 effort 4/24. Cash Refund was 2nd for much of his last race but didn’t kick in the stretch. He does own great speed figures for his mid-race style, usually in the triple-digits.
Selections: Cash Refund, Whiskey Rebellion, Noble’s Promise, as I call for 2 huge value horse to finish ahead of a favorite.
Early Times Mint Julep Handicap:
Bizzy Caroline should have no problem handling 8.5 furlongs; this late pace runner had won at 9.5 furlongs previous, while the rest of the field hasn’t. Winner of last year’s G3 Regret Stakes. True horse-for-course, 2 wins in 3 life races at CD, best Brisnet of 101 here in the aforementioned Regret. Artemus Kitten scored a 100 2 races back in the Bayou Handicap at Fair Grounds…just past her 3YO best of 95. Bounced off that effort with a 79 in an optional claim 80k race at Keeneland. I am suspecting she’s still in the influence of exploding to 100 and should bounce up again. Heavenly Landing won a G3 race earlier this year at Gulfstream, running in Graded company last 4 races. Best jockey/trainer combo in CJ Lanerie (again!) and Ed Kenneally (29 win %). Might bounce from her 97 effort in a G2 race last month. Hard Seven comes out of a G2 race in April, finishing 3rd. Ravi’s Song has 2 different ROI angles worth looking at: Jockey Mena has worked with trainer Carl Bowman on 3 races in last 60 days, with 1 win. ROI: +6.73. Also, Bowman has run 23 horses this year, winning 17%, in the money 26% for a barely break-even score of +2.01. Snow Top Mountain won a G3 event in February at Gulfstream 2 races back. She has best turf Brisnet number of the field, a 105 in that G3 at Gulfstream. She has the best pace numbers for her dead closer style of the field.
Selections: Snow Top Mountain, Bizzy Caroline, Heavenly Landing. Decent race to play.
Not wagering $ on these races!
Next week I’ll give you my analysis of the entire Belmont card for Belmont Stakes Day. I’ll also reveal some early trends, should any pop up, in my hunt for triple-digit exactas.