Lifetime 129 of 166 cuts made, 43 top 10s, 4 wins.
Lifetime 129 of 166 cuts made, 43 top 10s, 4 wins.
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA: is world #14, and makes his first appearance at Chambers Bay, and his 3rd US Open (peaked at 10th in 2013). This year he’s missed 1 cut in 15 tourneys and has 12 placings in the top 25. Lifetime 42 of 50 cuts, 13 top 10s and one win, last year’s Memorial.
Strongest cycles:Physical,emotional,intuition, awareness, passion. Lacking in mental and aesthetic cycle strength.
Best holes at Augusta:
My fandom of golf is really more about the competition rather than rooting
for household names. Though, I will appreciate a good guy to fans (Lefty), a
feel-good story, or a one-win player who just got their card recently and
got the magic invite, (how about Matt Jones and the called chip-in Sunday!)
to Augusta National, or a player or three who have great resumes but have
not yet won a major (hello again, Sergio Garcia).
That typed, I’m not a Tiger fan, and I won’t watch (or refuse to watch)
based on whether or not Tiger is involved.
I believe in fair courses. After all, golf ideally is man vs the elements,
especially in links courses. The best golf does reward good driving and
approaches, punishes really bad shots, and has a decent but not overly sense
of fairness to it. Some courses specialize in having trees, water, sand,
rough, all of it, as prime hazards. I haven’t calculated or begun to figure
out which holes or courses at large have the most trouble of different types
to overcome, but I can certainly give you my take on whether or not a hole
is really good. Frankly, I’d like risk-reward holes over any other type.
Prototypical is the 17th ‘island’ hole in The Players Championship. Any
hole that I call a knee-knocker, one where you really have to watch your
yardage and wind situation, say, the 18th at Pebble Beach, or sometimes the
1st at St. Andrews, is worth viewing. I have sometimes played the
interactive World Golf Tour, and I really like the narrow dogleg fairways
and risky holes of Congressional Country Club, notably the 6th, where you
have a risk-reward element on your 2nd shot. Do you go over the water to the
green or lay up in a bottleneck fairway? So many ways to score low or high
on it. That’s what I love about golf, and about great players who make those
I guess that’s why I put a premium on two stats above all others: Ball
Striking (combo of rank in ‘Total Driving’, which itself combines driving
distance and accuracy) and Scrambling, the art of getting into trouble and
out of it again, and still scoring par or better. The best in Total Driving
on the PGA Tour right now, and whom you’ll see at Augusta, is Derek Ernst.
Best in Scrambling? Sergio Garcia.
What I did here was take the combined ranks of the players listed in both
categories, and used the lowest raw scores to determine my ideal foursome
who should contend and win in the Masters.
Sergio is 1st in Scrambling, 20th in Ball Striking = 21
Zach Johnson 11th in Scrambling, 17th in Ball Striking = 28
Bubba Watson 10th in Scrambling, 22nd in Ball Striking = 32
Webb Simpson 25th and 19th = 44
Just behind these: John Senden, 28th, 17th = 45
Also notable but not playing this week: Chris Stroud, Charles Howell III,
Russell Knox, Brendan Steele.
A little more about each player:
Sergio, as cited above, seems to be on everyone’s list as the best player
without a major title. 8 Tour wins. Currently #1 in Scoring Average on the
PGA Tour, 3rd in Sand Saves, 9th All-Around, 3rd in Par 4 Birdie or Better,
3rd in Par 4 performance. Top 10 also in these categories: Scrambling over
30 yards, Greens in Regulation under 75 and also 175-200, approaches
200-225, putting from inside 5′, over 25′, rough proximity, average distance
of putts made, 3-putt avoidance, back 9 scoring average, club head speed,
spin rate, distance to apex.
Average round at Augusta: 72.96 (low 66, high 79), making 11 of 15 cuts.
Best finish: 4th.
Here are his biorhythm cycles for the 4 day tournament:
On the negative side but might see an emotional surge, a rather uphill battle for the 1st 2 rounds. Doubtful he will be able to execute, especially with the physical critical day for round 2. Not sure he’ll make the cut.
Zach Johnson won this tournament in 2007. Top 10 in these stats: Driving
accuracy %, birdie and scoring average, all-around, par breakers, par 3-4
birdie or better, bounce back, par 3 and 4 performance, GIR % 150-175, GIR
under 125 and under 100, putting over 25′, right rough tendency, fairway
proximity, scrambling from rough, back 9 scoring, launch angle.
Average round at Augusta: 73.27 (low 68, high 81), making 6 of 9 cuts.
All depends on day 1 as his strength is just past his peak but prone to mental errors. In fact, a double critical approach in the first 3 rounds. I think he’ll survive but has to avoid thinking with his heart and just go for it.
Bubba Watson won the 2012 Masters. Top 10s: Driving distance, holes per
eagle, par 4 birdie or better, round 3 and final round scoring, par 4
performance, scrambling over 30 yards, GIR % under 75 yards; approaches
175-200, putting inside 5′, 15′-20 and 15′-25′, driving % over 300 yards,
GIR % other than fairway, going for the green, scrambling from rough, 3 putt
avoidance, avg distance to hole after tee, avg distance after going for it,
club head speed, ball speed, distance to apex, apex height, hang time, carry
Average at Augusta: 72.15 (low 67, high 78), making all 5 cuts.
He’s quite likely to outthink the competition and master this course. It comes down to the execution, and right now he’s fairly lacking in that department. He’ll have to rely on his short game and putting here.
Webb Simpson qualified bywinning the 2012 US Open. 4 Tour wins.
Top 10s: Strokes gained in putting, birdie average, all-around, par
breakers, par 5 birdie or better, putting 10′-15′ and 20′-25′, avg distance
of putts made, proximity to hole from sand.
73.83 average at Augusta, (low 70, high 78), making 1 of 2 cuts. Best
Amazingly, Webb has a triple high for exactly one day, while feeling the effect of a mental critical and a coming emotional critical on top of that. Physically he’s in peak form. Very good cycles for the 4 days. He’d have to rely on the long distance and hope he can be fairly accurate to adhere to his stats, especially GIR, seeking his success with putting.
I’d pick Webb to do the best of this foursome, tho I truly think these 4 are most likely to contend at Augusta among the 97 playing, and even to win.