Enligtened Derby trail update

This post was edited following scratches/changes.

Today’s Enlightened Trail race is at Presque Isle Downs in Erie PA. It’s the Fitz Dixon Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes. It’s an ungraded stakes event, 6.5 furlongs, worth 100k in purse money for these 2YO colts. Several horses with prior EDT points are in the field.
1 LESS THAN PERFECT is one of those horses. 4th in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine 2 weeks prior.  Top average winning distance numbers from pedigree (Pleasantly Perfect/Special Date, by the Irish-bred Aragorn). Just 2 races of 6 in the money, and is reunited with the jockey that earned him the maiden debut win on this track in Willie Martinez. Trainer Kevin Rice  has 1 win and 4 placings in 9 non-graded stakes events this year, for a 4.20 ROI.  Strong gain in Brisnet speed figure last time with an 85, so a bounce from this sprinter could happen.  ML odds: 8/1. Me: 4/1. Contender at a price.
3 DRAW NIGH has 1 win and 3 placings in 6 races. Really lost in the shuffle in this field.  Trainer Jim Rankin has 3 wins and 6 placings this year with horses doing the sprint-route-sprint shift, for ROI of 2.32.  ML: 20/1. Me: Worse. Avoid.
4 BOURBON COWBOY was 4th in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. Slight gain from 83 to 88 Brisnet speed in that race. The 88 score is the best of this field on the all-weather surface. ML: 7/2. Me: worse than 20/1.  Avoid.
5 DUFF won an ungraded stakes event last time out on this track, and also was 3rd in the Mountaineer Juvenile. 2 wins and a 2nd in 3 PID races. Nice effort compared to his prior races at the maiden level, and might bounce back after winning with a 78 last time out. That score is the best on this track of the field.  ML: 5/1. Me: 7/1   Outside contender.
6 COURT’S RULING won both lifetime races rather convincingly. Big gain in his last race, with a dazzling 96 Brisnet in a state-bred 4 furlong race. Considering he returns in a middle post as he was for previous, that may be an advantage.  ML: 5/1. Me: 5/2. Contender.
8 SERAPH, who was 6th in the Arlington-Washingon Futurity in his 2nd lifetime start, produced one sharp work since that race. Outside of that, no real evidence to support a win. ML: 9/2. My odds: 16/1. Dark horse.
9 MACHINATION graduated from maiden in 3rd try. Ranking him for his pace progression, a solid 80 in that final maiden race, ahead of 2 races in the 70s. I’ve rated this sprinter the early speed of the field.   ML: 4/1.  Me: 7/1  Outsider.
12 COOPER’S CRESCENT graduated after his 7th and most recent star at the 29k level. For 6.5 furlong races, track bias is favoring both stalking-type horses (34%) and outside posts (17%); this horse is the one to fit both qualities.  ML: 12/1. My odds: 3/1. Contender, overlay.
My top 4:
12 Cooper’s Crescent
1 Less Than Perfect
6 Court’s Ruling
5 Duff
Overlays: 1, 12.
Expecting value to surprise in this race and to add 2 new faces on the point-total list for the Trail.
I secured one past performance set for one race of TOE’s progeny, it’s the 4th race at Delaware Park, maidens, 30k level, 5.5 furlongs.   Rain has turned this into just a 3-horse race of first-time starters.  It is the debut of Jane Says.  Dam is Judy B, out of Marquetry. She’s done all her workouts here, and the last 4 have been very last.  I actually think she’ll run 2nd to Divine Excitement, who not only has great works, but the last 2 have been bullets, and has Kerwin Clark aboard (22% wins) plus trainer Larry Jones (36%).

PS: Going to try again for The Racing Biz’s next 10-race contest, which includes 7 races at Laurel and 3 of the big stakes races at Belmont.  Also that day, races to follow at Remington (if I survive today and Friday,) and the last weekend of contest action at Emerald, which, rumors have it, could be my next home track.