Enlightened Derby Trail update, analysis of stakes at Emerald, Remington

The Enlightened Derby Trail continues it’s trek toward next year’s Run For All Those Roses with today’s Gottstein Futurity at Auburn, WA’s Emerald Downs.   This will be my home track as I’m moving, somehow, to the Seattle metro area in the next few weeks. Great timing on my part as it’s actually closing day.
Here’s my look at the contenders:

1 PRIME ENGINE won his maiden debut at the 18k level in pure cruise control in the stretch.  Best average winning distance from pedigree (Northern Afleet/Gravy Train’s Song, by Unbridled’s Song).  ML odds: 8/5. My odds: 20/1 Dark horse.

2 VAL DE SAIRE is the one horse who was a steady increase in pace. Ater his 2nd place finish in his maiden debut in August, he increased Brisnet speed to 66 in another ungraded stakes race. Finally he breaks maiden status in his most recent race at the 18k level, pairing up the 66 with a 69. It could be a sign of better things. He’s the best of the 3 late threats should there be a pace duel. ML odds: 15-1. My odds: 9/2. Contender, overlay.

3 OLD FASHIONED GRIT won his maiden debut with a good stalking effort. 3 works since, then, 1 rather fast, best work tab of the field. He’s the x factor here. Will he keep pace with Trackattacker? ML odds: 10/1.  My odds: 7/1   Contender, possibly an overlay.

5 TRACKATTACKER is the other ML fave at 8/5 and deservedly so.  He leads in nearly every variable I track.  After winning his maiden debut, he was on layoff, then won 3 straight ungraded stakes also at Emerald, all at 50k, and wiring the field, winning each race with ease.  This is a superbly exciting horse to see.  I am declaring the race the Trackattacker Invitational, and he easily should pick up the 100 points for the EDT race.

Top 4
5 Trackattacker
3 Old Fashioned Gift
2 Val de Saire
1 Prime Engine
*****
Now the capsule view..just the top 3 contenders profiled…for the 6 ThoroEnduro contest races at Remington Park.

Race 2 is the a 5.5 furlong claiming race for fillies and mares who are non-winners of 2 races.

5 DELIGHTFUL DELILAH graduated from maiden status in his 4th try last time out, his first race at RP. He wired the field with a 69 Brisnet score. This, paired up with  65 in previous may indicate better things today.  Best jockey/trainer combo: Jareth Loveberry (21% wins), JR Caldwell (30%). ML odds: 4/1. My odds: 2/1. Favorite,.
4 DAKAMO DENIA broke maiden in 2nd start nearly 2 years ago, and has had trouble in higher class ever since. 89 Brisnet score from 2 years ago is best speed on RP surface of this field. Off a year long layoff, she’s worked out steadily since, with 1 recent work being rather fast, and having run 4 furlongs in those works in the last 3. Respective to post position, she runs the fastest of these.  ML odds 2/1. My odds: 6/1.
10 ETASONG graduated last year at Lone Star, and also had trouble against better fillies since, even with recent switch to route and turf. She switches back to dirt and sprint here.  This sprinter has the best early and consistent speed for her style in her class.  Looking for a bounceback, after scores of 47, 57 and 47 in the last 3 races.  ML odds: 30/1. My odds: 6/1. Overlay.

Not much value for this race. Frankly I think it’s a one horse race, with the real race being for 2nd.
Race 5 is the Remington Green Stakes, 9 furlongs on turf, for 3YO+., 100k.
5 HOLIDAY MISCHIEF comes out of a 6th place finish in the Unbridled at Lousiana Downs, and prior to that, 2 dazzling Brisnet scores of 105 and 107, the John Bullit and a 35k allowance race respectively.  Top jockey/trainer here: CM Berry is 20% Joe Offolter 10%. Nice pace overall from a middle post. I’m expecting a bounce back up considering the 85 he posted in his last race.  Track bias in his favor also: Sprinters in turf routes are winning 36%, and posts 4 through 7 are 13% winners. ML odds: 20/1. My odds: Better than 2/1. Favorite, overlay.
6 GENTLEMAN’S KITTEN won a 50k ungraded stakes last time out, matching his lifetime best with a 102 score. 5 wins in 12 lifetime on the turf. That 102 score is the best of the field on turf. 95 for the distance, achieved in Fair Grounds this winter, is also tops of the field.  Only hose in the field with good pace progression considering the 102 and the gain from his previous start. I rank this stalker as fastest of the field. Another horse who can benefit from the middle post. ML odds: 8/5. My odds: 2/1.
4 GREENGRASSOFWYOMING last won in February in a 50k allowance race. On a 2 month layoff, posted 4 works at Churchill, with 2 works very fast. Also prefers a middle post.  ML odds: 6/1. My odds: 8/1.
Challenging contest race here, which is really between 5 and 6, calling for a major upset by 5.
Race 6 is the Flashy Lady Stakes, 50k, fillies and mares 3YO+ going 6 furlongs.
4 SNAPPY GIRL is 12 of 18 in the money lifetime, 7 wnis, and a streak of 7 in the money, and won 2 ungraded stakes in the process. Switches from turf to dirt and back up from 5 furlongs, a frequented switch in her career as of late. Best class win was a 100k stakes win at Evangeline Downs earlier this year. Comes out of 2 races posting her lifetime best Brisnet scores of 99 each. 3 workke s since last at RP, 2 of them very fast. Very good trip last time out, wiring the field. ML odds: 9/5. My odds: 2/1. Favorite
7 LASTING BUBBLES ships from TX, has 6 wins and 2 2nds at the distance, plus a 102 lifetime best for the distance, best of this field. Trainer Kevin Peek has 7 wins and 13 placings with horses shipping in, for a decent return of 2.37.  On the bench since mid-July, she has proven to win without rust previously. Gained from 84 to 100 in last race, with a great stalking trip in the Valor Farms. She is definitely the speed of the field.  ML odds: 2/1. My odds: 9/2.
8 AMERICAN SUGAR is the lone closer. Best AWD numbers here (Harlan’s Holiday/I Love America, by Quiet American). 2 wins in 4 here at RP, with a 95 Brisnet, which is best of this field. That score was achieved last November. Posted scores of 82 in a 6 furlong sprint on dirt, then 90 in a turf sprint, then 82 in a turf route.  With the distance and surface switch, this may aid in a bounceback.  ML odds: 30/1. Me: 8/1. Overlay.
Another tough race to figure but the chalk should bear out.
Race 9 is the marquee race, the Oklahoma Derby, a Grade 3 race for 3YOs, going 9 furlongs. 14 horses going at it. This to me was the toughest race I’ve had to study in a long time.
3 STREET PRANCER in the money 4 times of last 5 races, including 3 wins.  Posted a lifetime best 87 2 races back in a 75k stakes win, then trailed off to 74 in a distant 2nd place finish in a 50k stakes event. Best works of the field, with all 3 at RP, 1 very fast. Won 2 races from an inner post. Aiming for a bounceback in this effort today.  ML odds: 30/1  Me: 3/1. Favorite and overlay.
7 TONITO M started his career south of the 48 in Puerto Rico, then has had alternating mixed results in the US, but all in sharp company. Best horse in pace progression of the field.  In studying the generally blank races he ran at Canonero Race Track, he’s definitely improved overall with the stateside runs, including a 95 Brisnet last time out in a 200k stakes race. It can be surmised it’s his lifetime best.  ML odds: 8/1. My odds: 9/2. Overlay.
10 IBAKA has 6 wins in 8 lifetime, and a 5 race win streak.  Also has 2 wins and a show with a 94 best score at RP, best score of this field. That was his graduation out of maiden status in November 2013. Outside post should not be an issue.  Looked good in his stalking effort last time out in a 44k statebred allowance race here in August.  ML odds: 15/1. My odds: 5/1. Overlay.
Yes, 3 overlays per morning-line, in what should be an exciting event.  This is one to savor.

Race 9 is the Remington Park Oaks for 3YO fillies going 8.5 furlongs, 200k at stake.

4 SHANNON NICOLE is a runaway fave here. The closer had won a 200k race at Indiana Downs last time out after mixed blessings in other races of lesser class. She’s also unaffected by rust, having won off layoff in that prior race. Gained from 88 to 94 Brisnet, which is her lifetime best, and a short new top at that. That is a good sign.   She’s also the speed of the field with a great stretch kick, has 4 works since last race, 3 very fast, one a bullet. More? Also likes a middle post. and is one of 2 horses with a relatively clean trip coming in. ML odds: 3/1. I fully agree, and probably better than that.
6 LADY FIFTY TWO won the Washington Oaks last time out at Emerald in August, then headed to the bench. Pace progression is her best feature. Gained a new top going from 82 to 90 in the race at Emerald.   Has to be considered to get a piece.  ML odds: 12/1. My odds: 9/2. Overlay.
3 HAVEYOUGONEAWAY won a 40k allowance race last time out in her only start at Remington, with an 86 Brisnet. That’s best for the track in this field.  Best jockey/trainer combo here: Jareth Loveberry has 21% wins, and Allen Milligan has 9%.  ML odds: 12/1. My odds: 9/1. Possible overlay.
One horse race here, as Shannon Nicole is my lock between all 6 races.

Race 10 is the Remington Park Sprint Cup Stakes, 3YO+ going 6 furlongs for 150k.

7 ALSVID won ungraded stakes at Prairie Meadows and Zia in the last year. 4 wins and a 2nd lifetime at RP. 107 Brisnet is best of those who have raced at RP. 7 wins and 6 2nds in 15 lifetime for the distance with a lifetime best of 113; clearly he’s master of the distance of the field.  Jockey/trainer combo advantage is this: CM Berry with 20% and Chris Hartman with 13%. No rust for this gelding, having won off layoff prior. I have the stalking horse rated as fastest of the field. Nice works too: 6 in all, 5 at RP, 2 very fast, last one a bullet.  ML odds: 5/1. My odds: better than 2/1. Favorite.
8 CASTLETOWN won a 40k restricted stakes effort at Cantebury last time out, surging in Brisnet from 93 to a lifetime best 104.  That new top is slightly better than a 101 she ran 2 years hence.  Good sprinting effort last time too.  ML odds: 9/2. My odds fully agree.
6 HEITAI is the only other sprinter here. Switches from turf and gains a furlong after a 3 month layoff and a great sprinting effort in a 300k stakes race.  4 works in the layoff at RP, last one a bullet. Middle post should help chances.
Very good betting race here tho I have 7 the clear choice at mild value.