Breeders Cup 2013 day 1 analysis

To begin with, I am NOT wagering a dime. I don’t really have a dime to my name at this moment. I wish I did, so I could do some practical things like pay bills and such. Getting personal a bit, I’m struggling to make ends meet and have zero dispensary income for gambling.

Nevertheless I attempt to handicap this year’s 2-day Breeders Cup, held this year at Santa Anita Race Track. This post focuses on the Friday races. Overnight, I will publish the Saturday findings.
Outside of these picks I’m involved in two different handicap challenges: Derby Wars features the first 5 races of the Santa Anita card, this the pre-meet races, all good races themselves. I am not delivering picks here, but I will post what I have at the tourney page (I’m cblue456):  I have to be in the top 5 of 45 to earn points.

Further aside I’ve heavily involved in another free challenge, this at Remington Park. 123racing’s series of challenges are fun and you can win in several ways. I believe prizes are for the top 10 in wins and in virtual $ won. I’m cblue456 there and I have publicly given picks in the tourney’s ‘stables’ areas. I’m pretty excited as I am top 10 in $ won there. 3 races tonight, scheduled to run after the BC’s. 

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BC MARATHON: 3-10-4-5: Commander is running 3rd race under reclaim by Dennis Terry. Since the reclaim, he was a competitive 2nd in a 50k stake, and won the Grade 3 Premier, both at Hastings. More importantly, I feel he’s ready to win today. Track bias is playing favorably to inside posts during routes. In fact, his last 3 wins have come from a rail post. He, and Indian Jones proved to have had the best trips last out from this field. Worldly also carries value here. Recovered in form after a 4 month layoff, running relatively solid Brisnet numbers around 100 in each. The 102 he scored last in the Homecoming Classic at Churchill was just past his lifetime best of 100. This may suggest a further increase here. It is, tho, part of a triple high, and probably a bounce downward for this early-stalking horse. Nevertheless he is rated as the fastest horse here. Ever Rider is slightly favored in morning-line. The great unknown matter here is that he’s raced exclusively at Argentina and he makes his North American debut here. As an Argentinian bred horse, he does have some interesting average winning distance numbers: 10.7 from sire line Candy Stripes, having Blushing Groom and Nasrullah in direct male line, and 6.8 by Il Corsaro as the dam-sire, a son of Northern Dancer. Ever Rider won a Grade 2 race last time out, plus 6 works right at Santa Anita, the 2nd last work a bullet. Suns Out Guns Out is a longshot that should get consideration. Was a winner for today’s jockey, Julien Leparoux, who has had just the one race with trainer Dale Romans in the last 60 days. The question is whether lightning can strike twice again here. This horse also in recovery form, running in the mid 90s for pace. Those races since a 6 week layoff were a triple high spike in pace numbers, so a bounce is possible. 4 works since last race, 2 at Santa Anita, 2nd last very fast at 6 furlongs, 3rd last a bullet work at Churchill.
Based on morning line numbers, we could see some good betting across the board, as it were, and the Argentinian as favorite is probably not going to win this. Good betting race.

BC JUVENILE TURF: 7-11-10-5: I actually have 3 longshots out to destroy the chances of the morning-line fave. Aotearoa (how does Trevor Denman pronounce this? Ay-tee-uh-row-a) won the ungraded Zuma Beach last time out on this track, 3rd lifetime effort, with an 89 Brisnet. This is the best pace number of those who have won at the track and among routers. Also has Corey Nakatani aboard, with Leonard Powell training, combining to have best win % of the field. Their only combo together in the last 60 days was with this horse (yes, small sample, I know). The 89 was the best of Aotearoa’s 3 lifetime races, slight possible bounce here. A good trip from there should lead to a good trip here. Poker Player is the lone closer. Broke maiden last time in winning the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland. Paired up Brisnet number of 85, could bounce from here. I rate him as the fastest of the field, should he get the proper trip to make a stretch run. Ontology I don’t give much weight to here, but he has worked out well: 3 works at Santa Anita, 2 of them competitively fast. Bobby’s Kitten is out of two convincing wins, one a 95k maiden race, and the Grade 3 Pilgrim. He has the best turf numbers of the field, and also at risk from bouncing off a sharp gain pace (ran a 97 in the Pilgrim).
Might be good to use Bobby’s Kitten with these 3 longshots, those 3 for wins each if odds form holds. Another good betting race.

BC DIRT MILE: 12-6-8-7. No sign of morning-line fave Verrazano in the top 4. Goldencents, 2nd favorite, gets the nod from me. The Santa Anita Derby winner comes out of a 107 Brisnet at this same track, winning another Grade 1 race. No other horse has such a home course advantage from this field. There is the chance he could bounce down tho. Was on 2 month layoff, then ran 3 sprints, and now returns again to routes.  Broadway Empire is off of two Grade 3 wins, and a winner of 4 of 6 lifetime. Early-stalking style is fastest of the field. Seems to like the middle post. Convincing win last time makes him a contender here. Holy Lute is in the money for all 4 lifetime races. Mike Smith aboard for trainer James Cassidy. They have won all 3 races as combo in last 60 days, for a 6.07 ROI. Best win % combo of the field too, buoyed by Smith’s 37% win rate in 30 races at the meet. Holy Lute forged lifetime best of 101 last time, running 3rd in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby, might bounce from this.Alpha, winner of last year’s Travers (OK, dead heat) and this year’s Woodward, was last of 12 in last year’s BC Classic held here last year. The pedigree is undeniable (Bernardini-Munnaya, out of Nijinsky II). He ran his lifetime best in the Woodward, then put in an off race last time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, so a bounce back may be in order. At the same time, the Woodward was just a few ticks past his 3YO best in the Travers, so it strengthens the case for future progress.
No chalk to be found in this race.

BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: 4-3-10-11: More good value to be had here. Kitten Kaboodle broke maiden in style, winning the Grade 3 Jessamin at Keeneland last time. She equaled her lifetime best of 87 and could bounce down from that here. Gets an inside post again here and should relish this,especially after the big win. Colonel Joan was 3rd in the Surfer Girl held 3 weeks ago here, still seeking first win. Paired up scores in the 80’s from last 2 races, might bounce. She’s a straight closer, and needs perfect trip to succeed. If she does, she will be fastest of all. Clenor began career in Ireland, now at home on the West Coast, and 4th US start, 2nd at Santa Anita. Hasn’t disappointed yet, winning all 3 North American starts including the aforementioned Surfer Girl. The 89 scored here is best performance on this track of this field, as well as best among routers. Also the best jockey/trainer combo in Rafael Bejarano and Doug O’Neill. Also out of a pair of races in the 80’s and could bounce. Ready To Act in 3rd lifetime race. Last time out, lost rider in the Grade 2 Natalma. Entered this race on layoff, as he did in first race, a winning 80k maiden effort. No reason to think she can’t win again off layoff, or at least contend. 5 works since the Natalma, 2nd last a bullet.
Another very good betting race.

BC DISTAFF: 5-3-6-4. Absolutely tough to separate much of the 6-horse field based on trips, post and track bias, categories that I give the largest weight too. Nevertheless, here’s how I see it. Beholder is my best bet of today’s prime races. Ran 1st or 2nd in 10 of his 11 lifetime races (the one miscue came in his first race). Winner of 4 Grade 1 races, all at Santa Anita, including the Zenyatta last time. true horse-for-course, 5 wins in 6 races, and a 110 best Brisnet scored in an allowance race last year. Plus, he has Gary Stevens aboard with Richard Mandella training, strong combo here. 4 works since the Zenyatta, all here, 2 were very strong. Not much to add here, really. Pace form is good, tho might bounce; should do well with the outside post. Close Hatches is 5 of 7 lifetime, winning the Cotillion and the Mother Goose, both at Grade 1, in last 2 races. I’ve rated him fastest of the field with her early pace. Princess Of Sylmar dueled a win over my 4th choice, Royal Delta in the Beldame Invitational last month. 8 of 10 lifetime, also a winner of 4 Grade 1 efforts. Interestingly, the win in the Beldame was a drop in pace to 99, this down from a lifetime best 107 in the Alabama, last of a triple peak of runs. Bounce back to triple digits again is very possible. As for Royal Delta, she has the best pedigree (Empire Maker, Delta Princess, out of AP Indy). Has the best Brisnet number of the field for the distance, at 110. Must consider with these despite the losing stretch duel.
This is the one race I’d avoiding wagering if I were you. All the others show promise of good value.

I’ll post overnight tomorrow with thoughts on the 9 Saturday races.

2012 Breeders Cup day 2 selections

Firstly the recap of yesterday. If this looks typed in a rush, it is. I gave myself little time to prep for 12 races for today. I did take a bit of a loss but I also scored 3 wins and 2 exactas across the 10 races.
Race 4 was the biggest, with a win and exacta that nearly got overturned via DQ.
Race 5 was a win
Race 8 was another win
Race 9 was an exacta score.

Here’s how I will be wager. I WILL be wagering actual $ this time:

*Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
*Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
*If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.
Plus/minus will measure the horses that fall outside my top 4 selections to suggest the horses that may be worth a few more $ to play. The most sensitive areas are these: If the 4th selection is involved in the strong side of the plus/minus, I may use that in exactas more so with other strong horses and favorites, regardless of odds.
Also: Any horses who are strong and outside of the top 4 and better than 5-1 will definitely be used as win. I might combine strong horses with each other for exactas, and also under favorites if they come at large price.

Trend ranks are a bit different. The only real change is that I’m removing horses in recovery form from the ‘plus’ category, and inserting horses who had no works since last race (tho there are just 4 such horses in the 12 races). On the minus side, I’m adding the horses who are of ‘exploding’ form type, and removing the top turf specialists from this list.
On yesterday’s card, only one variable shone; that was the horses who benefited from track bias. 7 of 12 horses in exacta positions actually finished in the top 2. No other variable broke 50%.

Race 1: BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLY SPRINT PREVIEW
4-1-5-3
Plus: 4,1
Minus: 1,3,5
#4: UNUSUAL WAY has lone track bias edge: Sprinters going 7 furlongs on dirt won 2 of 5 such races this meet, and also the 1 scheduled this week. Increased speed from 57 to 90 in last race, so bounce risk.

Race 2: BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT PREVIEW
6-12-4-10
plus: 1,4,10,12
minus: 6
Yes, I’m actually downgrading #6, ONE FIRM CAT only because it’s rated in one of the lower-performing variables, that being ‘forging’ a lifetime best speed figure in the last 60 days. Outside of that, he comes off the best turf performance on this track of this field, breaking his maiden just 3 weeks ago, scoring an 83. Might bounce a bit, as he increased from 75 in prior race.
For extra value, consider #1: SCHERER MAGIC has some track bias value. Horses with early-pace types, running 6.5 furlongs on turf have won 32% of the races during the meet, and 3 of 5 this week.

Race 3: Damascus Stakes
4,2, (then 5 or 7, whoever has worse odds will be my 4th).
plus: 2,4,5,7
minus: 2,3,5
Will include #7 in the mix.
I actually have #4 and #2 even, but give it to #4 for having track bias edge and no real downside.
#4:MILE HIGH MAGIC ‘s best on this track is a 101, breaking maiden on 3/3. He and #5 Private Zone are the lone speed (see race 1 for track bias). Both of these come out of losing speed duel. Mile High Magic lost by a length, being outkicked in last race, 6.5 furlongs on 9/9. Best jockey/trainer combo in Rafael Bejarano (22% wins) and Bob Baffert (31%)

Race 4 BC JUVENILE TURF
4-8-9 4th will be between 3,6,14. I’ll take the worst odds of these three.
Plus: 3,6,8,14
minus: 7,8,10,11,12,13
Whoever drops out of my 4th selection choices (3,6,14) will likely be included as extra bets for wins and exactas to either each other or to public favorite. These horses each are moving from sprint to route, the highest performing variable within the 9 racecards I’ve studied. Meanwhile… #4 GERVINHO is 2 of 2 lifetime. Comes out of an 88 score from 10/8, best track performance of the field. Best jockey/trainer combo in Bejarano, and Carla Gaines (26%)

Race 5: BC FILLY/MARE SPRINT
2-10-7-1 
Plus: 2
Minus: 2,5 
Not much confidence in this race, really. #2 BELLE OF THE HALL comes off lifetime best, a 103 run at Belmont last month. She is the fastest horse of this field, and also slightly moved past her prior best mark, a 98 scored during Belmont’s spring meet.

Race 6: BC DIRT MILE
7-3-5-8
Plus: 2 through 8
Minus: 2,3 
Will bring in #4 and #6 and #8 for value
Six horses in the field have track bias edge: Horses #2, 6, 8 are pure sprinters. Sprinters going a mile on the dirt this meet have won 58% of the races, along with going 2 of 4 this week. Further, horses in post positions 4 through 7 are winning 22% during the meet at this surface’s distance, and 23% this week. Along with the track bias, EMCEE, #7, moves from sprint to route, a big plus in my book here. #4, JOHN SCOTT and #6 SHACKLEFORD also get the track bias, but I have even more love for Shackleford: He led much of the G2 Kelso on 9/29 at Belmont, lost in the stretch and finished 2nd. Moved from 91 to 102 in that race, so a bounce risk.

Race 7: BC TURF SPRINT
9-3 or 6-1 
Plus: 1,5,6,8,9,11
Minus: 4,5,7,10,14
Will bring in #1, #8 and #11 for value, mainly on track bias basis.
#9 BRIDGETOWN is one of 5 horses with track bias edge (see race 2 info). Fastest pace of the field (last 3 2nd-call numbers are all over 100). Also has recovery angle: After 9 month layoff, scored 100 in 5f Turf Sprint at Churchill back on 5/5, then ran races of 98, 96, and then circled back fully with a 101 in the Troy Stakes at Saratoga 3 months ago. Pushed forward in the Woodward Stakes last time out 3 weeks ago with a 103.

Race 8: BC JUVENILE
4-1-9-8
Plus: 4,8,9
Minus: 2,3 and 5 through 9
#4 SHANGHAI BOBBY is fastest of these colts and geldings (last 3 2nd call numbers are 96, 98, 108). Despite a very small sample, he has best jockey/trainer combo in Rosie Napravnik (1 of 4 races won this meet) and Todd Pletcher (1 of 2)

Race 9: BC TURF
11-1-8-9
Plus: 1,8,9
Minus: 1,5,11 
#11 SLIM SHADEY has best track performance here among winners here, a 100 scored in a 2nd place finish earlier this year. Increased speed from 92 to 98 in last race on 9/30. Best jockey/trainer combo in Garrett Gomez (22% wins), and Simon Callaghan (29%). ROI angle: Gomez and Callaghan have worked one other race together, winning that race, for return of 6.40 (this is probably referencing the horse’s last race).
#9: DULLAHAN for value. Fastest pace of the field (last 3 stretch numbers are 117, 93, 82).

Race 10: BC SPRINT
13-8-7-11 
plus: 4 through 7 and 13
minus: 1,7,9,13,14 
Bringing in 4,5,6 for value. Each of these horses have track bias edge. In 6 furlong races on the dirt this meet, posts 4 through 7 are winning 16%, along with going 1 for 4 this week.
#13: Poseidon’s Warrior has the fastest pace numbers (last 3 2nd call numbers all over 105). Finished 3rd in the Vosburgh last time out after nearly wiring the field. ROI angle: Trainer Robert Reid has saddled 20 horses at the Graded stakes level. He has 15% wins, 40% in money, for return of 8.54.

Race 11: BC MILE:
2-3-7-4 
plus: 2
minus: 2,3,4,6 
#2 WISE DAN (love the name) is just about a lock here. 4 for 5 lifetime on turf, with highest score a lifetime best 110, run 3 races back at Saratoga. Easily the fastest of this field (overall pace numbers in last 3 range from 103 to 110). ROI angle: Trainer Charles Lopresti has had 22 shipping horses this year, with 27% wins and 45% in money, for an even return of 2.00.

Race 12: BC CLASSIC
5-1-2-9
plus: 1,2
minus: 1,2,7 
#5 GAME ON DUDE is ideal horse for course, 5-for-5 lifetime here with top score of 109 achieved in last start 5 weeks ago. Increased in speed from 103 in prior start, so slight bounce risk. Has Bejarano/Baffert connection (see race 3)

2012 Breeders Cup day 1 selections

(Edited 105pm ET to include latest changes)
And here we are. A year after a rather successful run of handicapping, at least from the major-race standpoint. I aim to follow up this up with even more winnings for the big Breeders Cup two-day event.

I studied the last 8 racecards, including yesterday’s races. Top 4 winning trends among my variables include these:
*Horses stretching from sprint to route.
*Horse identified as having fastest Equibase numbers in last 3 races, per run style.
*Horses identified as recovering in form. I calculate this by studying how the horse’s overall pace varied since last layoff.
*Horses receiving positive value from track bias during the meet and the week, divided by both post position and/or run style.
Worst 4 trends:
*Horses with identifiable ROI angle via jockey or trainer
*Horses under reclaim
*Horses who forged lifetime best figure in last 60 days ages 2 or 3. Older, 90 days.
*Horse identified as having fastest winning or overall best turf speed in field.

I will NOT be updating you all on twitter for the 2 day event but I will be editing these blog posts when scratches/changes occur. This will likely be finalized at about noon Eastern time.

Here’s how I will be wager. I WILL be wagering actual $ this time:

*Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
*Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
*If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.

Plus/minus will measure the horses that fall outside my top 4 selections to suggest the horses that may be worth a few more $ to play. The most sensitive areas are these: If the 4th selection is involved in the strong side of the plus/minus, I may use that in exactas more so with other strong horses and favorites, regardless of odds.
Also: Any horses who are strong and outside of the top 4 and better than 5-1 will definitely be used as win. I might combine strong horses with each other for exactas, and also under favorites if they come at large price.
Race 1: 5-4-11-13
Plus: 4,5
Minus: 2,9,11,12
#5 GOD OF WAR has 9 lifetime starts, beginning in Brazil, then adapting to West Coast racing. Just one race at Santa Anita, his last race, which was one mile on this turf. He won with a 94 Equibase number, top score on this track’s surface of the field. Further he has fastest overall pace numbers (2nd call numbers in last 3: 111,90, 103) He might bounce, as he increased from score of 85 in race prior to last. 20-1 morning line, could be value here.

Race 2: 1-10-4-3
Plus: 1,8,9,10
Minus: 2,4,3,6.
#1 AMY’S OUTBURST is an early-pace type will benefit from track bias: Horses of this style running 6.5 furlongs have won 38% of races this meet, and 1 of 2 this week. Only horse in field to have entered speed duel in last race and lost, actually losing 3rd late in a 6 furlong effort after leading through much of the race. Possible bounce: she moved from 77 to 89 overall pace in last race, also setting lifetime best number. That 89 score represents a recovery number as well. After 8 month layoff and trainer change to Kathy Walsh, she ran an 80, then the 77, then 89.
I’m also giving horses #8 and #9 opportunity for score via plus/minus. #8, MY BRITE CAROLINE, and #9, MAGICAL BRAND, are 2 of the other 3 horses who also have the early-pace style which will work to their favor here.

Race 3: 10-2-1-6 
Plus: 1,2,3
Minus: 1,4,11
#10 SOLAR ROCKET is 3 of 6 lifetime on Santa Anita’s main track, with best winning score in the field here, a 103 back on 3/24. In last race at 6.5 here on 10/19 he led much of the race, lost a real battle to finish ahead, held 3rd place. Moved from 65 to 92 in that race. No works since that 10/19 race.

I will also use #3 for extra value. PRIDE OF SILVER can be helped by track bias: Closer-type horses have won 2 of the 4 races this meet run at 7 furlongs on dirt.
Race 4: BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE SPRINT.
3-1-4-6
Plus: 3
Minus: 1,3,6
Not a very wagerable race the way it looks, especially with my top choice, #3 being morning line favorite. MERIT MAN, has won both lifetime starts. Shares best winning speed on track, scoring 98 in last race. Fastest pace numbers in field (2nd call numbers are 101, 100). ROI angle: Jockey Patrick Valuenzuela teamed up with trainer Robert Hess Jr on 3 races in last 60 days, winning 2 (this is likely based on Merit Man’s 2 wins), for ROI of 14.73.

Race 5: BREEDERS CUP MARATHON
1-14-3-10
Plus: 1,4,5,6,7,10,11
Minus: 1,5,7,8,10,11,14
ATIGUN has fastest pace numbers (last 3 stretch call numbers for this closer: 99, 91, 114). Moved from 101 to 108 overall place in last race, forging new lifetime best. 
I’m willing to bring #4,6 and #7 for extra value. All 3 can benefit from track bias. Looking at all horses running dirt route races this meet, 16% winners come from posts 4 through 7, along with 19% during the week. With 3 runners beyond 3 or 4 more to factor in, this could get complicated to wager.

Race 6: BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF. 16 entered, not all running of course.
13-1-8-2 
Plus: 1,3,10,12, 13, 15„8
Minus:6,5,8,9, 4, 11, 13
#13: FLASHY WAYS is 2 for 2 lifetime. Fastest winning track speed of these, a 91 in last race.Fastest overall pace, too (overall pace numbers are 89 and 91). ROI angles: Jockey Joe Talamo has worked 1 race with Richard Baltas in last 60 days, scoring that 1 win for 14.40 return. Also: Baltas is 2-for-2 in saddling 2YO horses this year for return of 18.40. This jockey/trainer combo is best in the field (Talamo 22% wins, Baltas 2-for-2).
I’d bring in as many as 6 horses that have extra value. #1 KITTENS POINT is the one reliable horse to benefit fom track bias. On turf miles during the meet, horses set on the rail have won 14% of races, and 20% this week. Horses #3, 10, 12, 15, 15 and 16 are all stretching from route to sprint.

Race 7 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES:
Plus: 8-1. 3,6,7 I like equally
Plus: 1,8
Minus: 1,3,5,6,7
#8 KAUAI KATIE is undefeated in 3 career starts. Lost after 35 starts but maintian smoke status. Benefits from track bias: In 15 races going 8.5 furlongs on dirt, horses from the #8 post and beyond have won 21% during the meet, and won all 3 such races this week. Stretches from sprint to route here. Also with fastest pace numbers of the field (last 3 2nd call numbers are 99, 99, 105). Best jockey/trainer win % combo in Rosie Napravnik (1 of 4), and Todd Pletcher (1 of 2)
Race 8: BREEDERS CUP FILLY & MARE TURF:
9-1-then 2 or 4 (I’ll take whoever has worse odds at post time)
Plus: All except 10
Minus: 1,8,9,10, 11.
#9: MARKETING MIX is identified with fastest winning speed on this track (99 in last race, 9/29), and fastest on turf overall (105 at Woodbine, 7/28). Overall best pace numbers of the field (pace numbers 99, 102, 105). Best jockey/trainer combo in field: Garrett Gomez 22 % wins, Thomas Proctor 25% wins).
3,6,7,12 should also be brought in for extra value. I’d probably keep it simple and go for straight win bets since there are more than a few to factor in still. Track bias will help each of these (3,6,12 have ideal run style, while 7 has advantageous post position)

Race 9 BREEDERS CUP LADIES CLASSIC

8-5-2-1 
Plus: 1,2,5,6,
Minus: 1,3,7,8 
#8: LOVE AND PRIDE has fastest track speed winning the Zenyatta Stakes here on 9/29 with a score of 106. Set new lifetime mark in prior race to that, a 107 on 8/26 at Saratoga, winning the Personal Ensign. Still under influence of that race.

Bringing #6 for extra value to use, tho likely not much more. ROYAL DELTA will get track bias help….she is one of 4 early-pace type horses in the field. 1 other turf race was run at 9 furlongs during the meet, won by an early-pace type.
Race 10: Twilight Derby:
9-6-4-8
Plus: 6
Minus: 1-8-5-9
#9 HUNTSVILLE has fastest numbers at this track. Lost pace duel in optional claimer with a 94 last time out, 3 weeks ago. Was reclaimed by Barry Abrams in August, has run 5 races since, winning 2 and finishing 2nd last time out.

Santa Anita race analysis, 4/22/12

I’ll be handicapping the final race day of the Santa Anita meet today. I have past performances for 8 fo the 10 races. I’m working on a new wrinkle of an angle: track/race bias stats. The stats determine what post positions and race-types win most at a track. I will use these stats to play an extra win bet if the horse is 6/1 or worse, and exacta under favorites or my top overall pick. TwinSpires.com/tv , where I watch races, keep up-to-date numbers on these. They also have Profit Line indicators, suggesting overlays. For the time being I’m ignoring those but keeping watch for the future.
I look for these stats onBrisnet past performances, tho I imagine TwinSpires updates these quicker to the latest races.
Bear in mind I won’t be wagering these races, but I’ll give you my top 3 selections as they happen, on Twitter at @radiocblue

RACE 1: 3YO maiden fillies going 6 furlongs, none who have made more than 4 starts. LADY TEN has the best Brisnet speed number at this track, an 88, reached last time out. She also has best pedigree (Rock Hard Ten/Mismonique) DIXIE IN PINK has the best overall pace, saving all its strength for the stretch.

FORM: No one with a decided angle, positive or negative.
PACE/POSITION BIAS: Inconclusive for pace. Position suggests horses in posts 4 through 7 do best…so give an extra edge to DIXIE IN PINK, LADY TEN, and also to first time starter PLAYFUL HUMOR.
Looks like just a 2-horse race thus far, not much value at all.
RACE 2: 6 furlong allowance, optional-claim, $80k. 5 horses go at it.
GUN BOAT has best dosage in this short field (Congrats/White Ruffle).INNOCENT MAN has won at 6 furlongs, and has the best pure sprint speed of the field, based on his first lifetime start. LET’S GET CRACKIN, the only two-time winner in the field, also has won at 6 furlongs. HODGE has the fastest winning speed at Santa Anita, scoring a 92 and breaking his maiden in November here.
FORM: Nothing outstanding to consider here.
PACE/POSITION BIAS:These have greatly favored the horse on the rail; that honor goes to INNOCENT MAN.
Little to no value here so far.
RACE 3: 6.5 furlongs for fillies/mares, going downhill on the turf. Allowance, optional claim $40k.
MRS. ROSA with best dosage here (Mr. Greeley/Noches De Rosa). Also has win on the track and best speed here (88 Brisnet). DIAMOND DUCHESS, in 3rd US start, has run consistently in route races in the UK and also won one. HAKUCHI has best class of these, winning in South America. No horses in the field have won locally tho. TIZALWAYSOMETHING has pure early speed and the best pace numbers of the field.
FORM: No edge here.
PACE/POSITION: Inconclusive.
Good wide open race.
RACE 5: $22-25k claimer, 1 mile for fillies/mares. MUSICAL GRACE has best dosage (Swiss Yodeler/Enduring Grace). LILLY’S PERFECT has won at 8.5 furlongs. TAXI RIDE also won at 8.5 furlongs, doing so in an $48k allowance race. VAN BRIT is 7 for 12 lifetime at Santa Anita, and a dazzling 95 Brisnet number. HALFAPONDAROSA has the best pace speed of these, running as a dead closer.
FORM: Negative bias to SIZZLING GOLD. He comes off a 7 furlong win here last month, but the increase from 77 to 90 will take too much out of him here. Granted, as a late running mare, such a horse doesn’t bounce nearly as much as do younger horses and sprinters, but I will not give benefit of doubt here. Tough call tho, and probably deserving of 12/1 morning-line odds. No horse with strong positive bias here either.
PACE/POSITION: Definitely favoring positions 4 through 7…give slight edge to PURE STORM, MUSICAL GRACE, ENTABENI, and SIZZLING GOLD.
Wide-open race.
RACE 7: Allowance optional claimer, $62.5k, a mile on the turf for 4YO+ horses.
FIRE WITH FIRE with best dosage (Distorted Humor/Cosmic Fire). Two horses have longest distance wins in the field, BARNEY REBEL and TIPPETY TAP TAP. SHEDIAK won an 85k ungraded stakes race at Del Mar last autumn, classiest win of this field. Three horses share best winning Brisnet number (97) at Santa Anita: RED DEFENSE, ROMEO ROYALE, TAMARACK SMARTY. Speaking of, TAMARACK SMARTY has best pace numbers to her runstyle of the field (closer).
FORM: No perceived positive bias. On the negative side, BARNEY REBEL makes his 2nd US start after racing in the UK. I predict downturn.
PACE/POSITION: Favoring posts 4 through 7: FIRE WITH FIRE, ROMEO ROYALE, MEGASTAR, SHEDIAK.

RACE 8: Maiden claimer for CA-breds, $40-50k, 6.5 furlongs.
CATQUEST has best dosage (Cat Dreams/Smooth Quest). SOI PHET has the best track performances here, an 89 pace number scored last month, in a race he just missed out on.
WARREN’S RAIL BIRD owns best current pace numbers of the field, strong closer.
FORM: Negative toward SOI PHET, who had peaked 2 races back with that 89 score. Still might be under the influence of that race, and being a 4YO, might take more time to bounce back from.
PACE/POSITION: All early runners will be helped out in this field, best bias to the sprinters. Give the edge to BRINGON THE WAIN and SOI PHET. Posts 4 through 7 are winning the best at this distance here. Edge to I FEEL FREE, SOI PHET, WARREN’S RAIL BIRD, AMERICA RISING.
SOI PHET certainly may have edge here but cautious at best.
RACE 9: San Juan Capistrano.
This 14-furlong race (!) has just 6 runners at morning-line. EAGLE POISE has best dosage (Empire Maker-Reams Of Verse). Only recent winner of this distance in the field, a Grade 3 win at Woodbine last December. DHAAMER makes his second lifetime start in the US. He ran 2nd in a Grade 3 race on this track. For form, often a horse who makes a big effort shipping from overseas in his debut will falter in his second race. BOURBON BOY (M/L fave) has run in consistenly great class, winning a Grade 2 race last time out at this track. Lifetime best was also established at this track earlier in his career, a 109 Brisnet number, best of this group. BONFIRE KNIGHT is a dead closer with the fastest closing kick of this field.
FORM BIAS: No one has any real edge, tho I do give DHAAMER an automatic disadvantage (see above)
PACE/POSITION BIAS: Meet totals suggest that a dead closer wins 35% of the time here, which gives BONFIRE KNIGHT a fair advantage. He’ll break from stall 5, which seems a bit more fortunate than the other positions.

RACE 10: Final race of the card and the meet, 6.5 furlongs, maiden claimers for $30k. Big 12 horse field.
MASTER RUDY has best dosage of the field (Fusaichi Pegasus/Sacred Sue). MIDNIGHT CON has 3 2nds in 5 lifetime races at Santa Anita, and best track speed here, with an 86 back in January. VERY UNUSUAL in the #12 hole has super early speed, best pace of the field.

FORM: I’m highly against VERY UNUSUAL, despite the fact that he goes back to dirt from turf and from 1 mile to 6.5 furlongs. With the propelling of his early speed in his races, he’s already forged 2 new tops last 2 races, to an 81 last out, and I think he’s more than due to downturn this time around. He’s also just making a pace recovery from his last layoff (first race back 2/25). No other positive/negative bias on any other horse.
PACE/POSITION: 6.5 furlongs for fillies here absolutely favores pure speed. Consider these 4 horses: MASTER RUDY, VERY UNUSUAL (caveat emptor), ZANDER, MR. PADRE. Also favors positions 4 through 7, so give edge to DREAM CAUGHT, GIVIMAWAY, SUPERCHUPACABRA, and MASTER RUDY, the latter who proves to be good value at 8/1 and dual qualifier