Breeders Cup 2016 Friday predictions

   November is a busy here, what with the Zone Master stats getting published (batting side available, pitching side later in the month), and the Enlightened Trails taking us to the big Breeders Cup events at Santa Anita this weekend.
As with prior years, I’ll have live $ to wager.  In this post, I’ll give you my top 3 plus overlays.
For Friday’s 4 races in the 2-day meet, I will be working and will not be wagering.  Saturday I’ll be home to wager and to help cover the event on social media.
I’ll post 4 or 5 of the races between now and Thursday.
BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE TURF
Top 3 are Good Samaritan, and overlays Channel Maker and Wellabled.
 Good Samaritan is 2nd in the ML. Winner of his debut going 8.5 on Saratoga’s turf course, then again at a mile at Woodbine, in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes.  No rust for this horse, having won its debut and is coming out of a 7 week layoff. Best works of the field; 5 works, 4 at Saratoga, 2 bullets, a 3rd very fast.
 Channel Maker ran 3rd to Good Samaritan in the Summer, this after debuting 3rd at Woodbine in July, then won over a yielding WO turf course in August, in the restricted 150k Vanderbilt.  Was near the front in the Summer, but despite having a matching new top of 92, he had a bumpy start and that may have cost him a win.  If measured by his 2nd call stats, he’s the speed of the field.
 Wellabled I’ve touted before, and for good reason; owner of 350 points in my Enlightened Derby Trail for wins in the Arlington-Washington and Fitz Dixon Memorial. Was 2nd in the Skidmore at Saratoga and also won his maiden race, wiring that field and winning by 7. Alternating scores of 92 and 87 for lifetime speed numbers.  His lone 2nd place finish came on turf, the others were on Arlington Park’s all-weather surface.  I think the speed figure pattern will hold for this race.
One other horse with EDT points coming in: Favorable Outcome (3rd, Champagne, 50 points)
 BREEDERS CUP DIRT MILE
Top 3 are Accelerate, Dortmund, Tamarkuz. Overlays: Accelerate and Point Piper.
Accelerate broke maiden in 4th try, winning first route race by 8 lengths on 7/28.  Won a 100k stakes event at Delmar 8/26, then won the Los Alamitos Derby (Grade 2) last time out 9/24. Those 3 wins were at speed figures of 99, 97, 91.  Best workouts; 4 fast ones at SA, last one a bullet.
 Dortmund has had a light 4YO campaign; 2nd in the San Diego (Grade 2) at Del Mar; 3rd in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic there, 2nd in the Awesome Again (Grade 1) on 10/1 here.  Triple digit speed figures in last 5. 108 speed figure in the San Diego is his lifetime best, and he’s definitely the speed here. Only sprinter in the field. Switching back to Martin Garcia, who rode him in the Derby Trail series last year. Prior distance cutback win, plus a win here last fall. Deserving of the 6/5 ML grade.
Tamarkuz is a 6YO with a series of stakes race wins at Meydan in Dubai, then entered the last 2 runnings of the Kelso, Forego and Metropolitan. 4 wins in 8 at the distance. 105 rating last time in the Met Mile represents his lifetime best. 105 is also a forged/exploding pace top. He actually ran a bit wide in the Met Mile and might have won that race.
 Point Piper was rather busy in 2016, with his last win coming in August at my home track of Emerald Downs (EMD’s best race, the Longacres Mile).Best AWD numbers (Giant’s Causeway/Imagine, out of Sadler’s Wells). Another horse with forging/exploding pace numbers, his 103 surpasses last year’s best of 102. Improved 2nd call speed figure by 9 points first race following the Mile and an 8 week layoff.
 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
 Top 3 in a value-packed race: Victory To Victory, Sweeping Paddy, Lull. Overlays: Victory To Victory, Sweeping Paddy, Madam Dancealot, La Force.
Victory To Victory 5th vs maidens in debut at Saratoga, then 2nd in a 74k allowance race at Woodbine, then won the Grade 1 Natalma, first time at route. Set 2nd straight new top with an 89, matched with prior 84. 35% wins for turf mile closers, and 14% for horses 4-7. Gained .75 length on leader between 1st and 2nd call last time out
3 works at Woodbine, 2 at CD. All 5 works very fast.
 Sweeping Paddy gets in with 2 scratches. Won 2nd maiden start, first time at route and turf, by 12 lengths. Followed up with 4th place finish in the Grade 3 Jessamin at Keeneland last month.  Best figures for distance and surface, a 97, scored in his maiden win. Could bounce back after bounce to 87 last time. Can be considered the speed of the field.
Lull won her maiden debut, then in a 100k stakes event lost rider and did not finish.  Afterward, she won the KD Juvenile Fillies, and placed 2nd in the Jessamin. Pair of 91s in those last 2 races, rating her as one of the speedsters.

Madam Dancealot makes her US debut after 6 competitive GB races, including 3 Graded ones.  She won 2 of those Graded races. Trainer Richard Ballas has done well in preparing her; owner of a stretchout and shipping win, a prior win with similar 4 lb drop in weight, first time Lasix, and waiting since 9/1 to stretchout.

La Force makes 2nd US start since her initial 3 races in Italy. Debut was here at SA, 3rd in the Surfer Girl stakes with an 82 Brisnet, her first route race at that. 82 is best of those on this track of the field. She got off to a slow start and ran wide on the lane, so a win definitely escaped her.

UPDATE: With late scratches announced, my new top 3 are Sweeping Paddy, Lull and Madam Dancealot. Not in position to fully recalculate stats but this is what I’m going with.

BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF
Top 3: Beholder, Stellar Wind, Land Over Sea. Overlay: Land Over Sea.
One of those races that looks like chalk will prevail.   Beholder was on a nice winning streak, and has since finished 2nd in her last 3.  On her home track, where she’s gone 15-13-2-0, she’s already got best distance and track speed figures of the field. Being specific, her best here in both categories was a 112 in last year’s Pacific Classic.  2nd in this year’s Zenyatta here, she’s on a nice pattern of close triple digit scores.  Turn time leads the field as well.

Stellar Wind has a great history, with 11-7-2-1, and 5-4-1-0 at SA. In fact, she’s edged out Beholder in their last 2 meetings. Neatly forged two new small tops (best, 107) in those races.  Usually runs one race, then gets layoff. The pattern continues and she has a few wins with that scenario in place.  Improved off of layoff at 2nd quarter, and made up some ground on Beholder in the Zenyatta last time out.
Land Over Sea won this year’s Fair Grounds Oaks, and that’s just 1 of 2 lifetime wins in 12 races. Ran 4th in the Cotillion at Parx last time out, small gain to 85 speed. She had a lot of trouble in that race, and I can certainly toss out the number. Only late closer in the field. Improved 1st after layoff in the Cotillion.
Coming up, my take on the first 5 out of the 9 Breeders Cup races for Saturday.

Zone Master 2016 batter statistics now available

Building on my original Fear Factor stat creation, I’ve completed work on the 2016 starting players, using the most active  8 (NL) or 9 (AL) players per position per team. I use Baseball-reference.com’s list per team to determine who belongs in this study.  I grouped the players as their website lists them, from catcher, infield, outfield and DH.
The first column of numbers is the Fear Factor stat itself, and the 2nd being the Bill James creation, Percentage of Offensive Value.  Numbers in bold mean this players is in the top 25 of that stat.
The most interesting matter to be found is that 4 players fit both Top 25 lists, 3 of them being second-basemen.
Here is the full list. 

I will update the historical list that I had originally posted to account for 3 seasons.  Vladimir Guerrero should still be the top batter in the post-expansion era.
If you’re looking for pitching stats, I will be hard at work on that, likely after this week as the Breeders Cup has priority.

Idealistic Stats podcast 10/23/15, show #21

20th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.
RSS: http://idealisticstats.podomatic.com/rss2.xml
Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive
mp3:
Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com
Listen to exclusive soundbites of my analysis at Clammr:
This week’s podcast includes the following:
Analysis of Crawford/Jean prizefight
MLB greatest games update
NFL binomial/mean predictions/analysis
Enlightened Trails coverage
Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)” and “Sol Aurora”
I’m currently seeking more music appropriate for this program. Contact me
directly to inquire.
Thanks for listening!
Dan Herman
idealisticstats.wordpress.com
dan@radiocrystalblue.net
Twitter: @idealisticstats
Clammr: http://www.clammr.com/app/user/27316

Idealistic Stats podcast #20, 10/17/15

20th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.
Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive
mp3:
Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com
Listen to exclusive soundbites of my analysis at Clammr:
This week’s podcast includes the following:
Analysis of Golovkin/Lemieux middleweight prizefight
MLB greatest games update
NFL binomial/mean predictions/analysis
Fantasy football team update
Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)” and “Sol Aurora”
I’m currently seeking more music appropriate for this program. Contact me
directly to inquire.
Thanks for listening!
Dan Herman
idealisticstats.wordpress.com
dan@radiocrystalblue.net
Twitter: @idealisticstats

Idealistic Stats podcast 9/18/15

16th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.
Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive:
mp3:
Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com
This week’s podcast includes the following:
Analysis of top stakes action at Parx for 9/19
Fantasy football thoughts re my team toward Week 2
Update to the MLB greatest games project, completing first phase of data.
Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)” & “Shimmer”
Thanks for listening!
Dan Herman
idealisticstats.wordpress.com
dan@radiocrystalblue.net
Twitter: @idealisticstats

Enlightened Trails update (stakes analysis of Canterbury, Woodbine, Louisiana for 9/12/15)

And away we go….. 5 races on a Super Saturday for the Enlightened Trails.  Here they are in order of post time:
Woodbine: Natalma Stakes, 1 mile on the turf for 2YO fillies; this Grade 2 event pays out $200k, and offers 250-100-50-25 for the top 4 finishers in my EOT  (Enlightened Oaks Trail) system. It’s the 2nd such race in my East Coast division.
My top 3 are these: 1-10-4
Caren is undefeated in 3, winning stakes of 100 and 125k here, each against restricted and statebred. Each race earned him Brisnet between 85 and 89 figures. First time on the grass. Some risk of bounce with regard to her big stakes winning efforts, but she has best works of the field, 4 in all right here, 2 of them very fast.  Can she improve further at a route? My instinct says yes.
Miss Metropolitan won her maiden debut,then faltered to 7th in a 150k event,then 3rd first time on turf in a 74.5k allowance race. Nice pattern of Brisnet ratings, 75 to 81 in all 3 of her races. Only early-presser pace type in the field, so should contend sometime along the backstretch. Longshot and worth the price.
Gamble’s Ghost won her maiden debut with an 87 Brisnet and by 8.25 lengths.   Gained 1.5 lengths vs leader, and showed turn-time of 22:4, best of this field.
Suggested odds: Know Clouds 29-1; Paddy Point 29-1; Catch A Glimpse 7-1; Caren 3-2;Miss Metropolitan 4-1 (overlay); Pulled The Goalie 16-1; Gamble’s Ghost 7-1.
Good wagering race as I can eliminate the favorite out of the first 2 spots.

Next is the Happy Ticket at Louisiana Downs, a 75k event for 2YO fillies, going a mile on the turf.  My top 3: 3-12-4

Jazz Song has 2 3rds and 2 wins, breaking maiden in her 3rd start,which was her first on turf and a stretch to 7.5 furlongs. Back on dirt last time and shortening to 7, she won fairly easily in a 21k allowance race. Those last 2 races represented Brisnet scores of 75 and 78.  Best speed figures for the distance and the surface. Track bias is favoring early-pressers in turf routes at a rate of 38% wins, plus 14% in posts 1-3. With the increase in class and distance,plus the prior shipping win, and a return to turf, she’s worth the 5-1 morning line choice.
Saritta has one start, winning her maiden debut in July at Lone Star Park by 1.5 lengths and a 79 Brisnet, a score that’s best of the field. Has a number of workouts in prep, all very fast.
Flashy Appeal won the EvangelineDowns Starlet by 7 lengths with a 70 Brisnet last time out,first race other than maiden class. Pattern of Brisnets are 62-70.
Suggested odds: Theron 16-1(overlay); Jazz Song 2-1; Flashy Appeal 4-1; Dreamofhonor 11-1 (overlay); Saritta 4-1 (overlay); Sombree 8-1.
Very tasty wagering race here also; no faves in my top 3.  As it turns out, Sombree is the morning-line fave at a weak 4-1.
After this is the Sunday Silence Stakes at LaD, 75k ungraded event for top 2YOs, going 1 mile on the turf.  My choices here are 1-10-9.
Kid Creole broke maiden status in his 3rd try vs statebreds, peaking at 78 speed rating, that effort on turf. Faltered to 56 in the Evangeline Downs Starlet, returning to dirt. Best speed figures for distance and surface. I am willing to play the bounceback angle here.  He’s measured as top speed here based on pace.
Masterly has 1 win in 2 starts, graduating from maiden status last time out with a nice 79 Brisnet score, first time on a fast track,5.5 furlongs.  Yes he could bounce from that,but I like his turn time most among other variables.  Can’t see him bouncing here.
Better Than Magic was 3rd last time out in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile, impressed with a 73 Brisnet…this above his maiden win of 62 Brisnet, which was his only race on turf.  Possible bounce risk here. No Bute for this race; switch back to turf, where he’d won before, should be a positive. 3 works at Remington in prep.
Suggested odds: Hunsa’s Magic 29-1;Mimosa Morning 29-1; Kid Creole 2-1 (overlay); Masterly 3-1 (overlay); Aztec Lion 5-1 (overlay) Better Than Magic 5-1.
Another great race that promises a lot of value.

Next is the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, Grade 2 event for 2YOs, 1 mile on the turf.  My top 3 are 4-1-3
First time starter Conquest Enforcer a deserving morning-line pick.   I’m banking on the strength of his works; 6 of them here, 2 of them very fast, mainly at 5 furlongs.
Sky Marshal has 2 good runs on this turf course, with a 92 last time out in a 74.5k allowance. It was his first time with blinkers. That speed figure is best on this track of this field.  With a win increasing in class and in distance, plus a sharp work since last, he must be considered at a price.

Manhattan Dan (love the name) is a turf specialist with scores of 27, 81 and 95 running at the NY tracks.  Best turf speed of the field, best pace of the field overall. Turn time last time out was 22:4.
Suggested odds:  Hollywood Hideaway 11-1; Hammers Vision 29-1; Sky Marshal 9-2; Manhattan Dan 2-1 (overlay); The Zip Zip Man 6-1; Dragon Bay 19-1; Gigantic Breeze 10-1; Conquest Enforcer 8-1 (overlay).
Decent value here but favorite in my top slot.

Finally there is the Shakopee Juvenile at Canterbury Park, a 75k race,6 furlongs,for top 2YOs. My top 3 are 4-9-7

The highly regarded Stormation is my top choice. 3 wins in 3 races, 2 here, one at Prairie Meadows, Brisnet scores from 81 to 86.  Wire to wire victories in all 3 as well. He’s the absolute speed here. Track bias is favoring sprinters in posts 4 through 7 in 6 furlong dirt races. Gained 4/5 of a second of turn time in last race despite a lower speed figure.  I cannot see anyone defeating him..so here’s the best of the rest:
Bushrod has one start, a win in his maiden debut here on 6/7, 62 Brisnet.   Lots of works since the layoff, all at Canterbury, some of them rather fast.
Native Princess was 2nd in the Sorority at Prairie Meadows, prior to that a 3rd in the Prairie Gold Lassie. Brisnets range from 72 to 78.  Best Brisnet speed figures for the distance.
Suggested odds:  Cable Jet 29-1; Bushrod 3-1; Native Princess 8-1 (overlay); Amariah Grace 14-1; Rocket Joe Copper 24-1, Cashel Rock 24-1; Stormation 1-1.
Probably a race to pass up.

Idealistic Stats 9/4/15 podcast

14th edition of the weekly Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.
Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive:
mp3:
Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com
This week’s show includes coverage of 6 out of 9 Enlightened Trails races for this weekend. Also an update to the MLB greatest games project, and mention of Sunday’s WBA bantamweight title fight
Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
Ian Siegal “Stone Cold Soul” – The Porch Sessions CD http://www.iansiegal.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)”
Thanks for listening!
Dan Herman
idealisticstats.wordpress.com
dan@radiocrystalblue.net
Twitter: @idealisticstats