Remington Park ThoroEnduro contest analysis,picks 10/18/19

I decided to join tomorrow’s 8-race free handicapping contest put together by The Racing Biz. Maryland Millions Day is Saturday. I get 2 entries; I will put outright win picks in one set, and 2nd place choices in another.
I remain in the ThoroEnduro contest at Remington Park, with 6 contest races tonight. Here’s how I see them:
Race 4 5-6-1 Cuando Again, Little Bit Okie, Lady Orchid.
Cuando Again should prevail here, this race being my biggest choice for a pricey upset. Best AWD numbers of the field (Dominus/Jezebella, out of Wild Again). This sprinter owns the best tactical speed of the field. Last 3 1st call numbers: 98, 83, 95. Floyd Wethey Jr returns to ride (prior winner with him last November). 11 cashes in 16 lifetime races at RP. Also a prior winner going from turf to dirt and removal of blinkers. Great increase at 1st and 2nd call in last start, after being 7 weeks away. He also gained well on leader, but falted afterward.

Race 6: 6-2-8 Drowningndiamonds, Sladens Dream, Welder.
Drowningndiamonds ran an 84 last time out, tho finished 5th out of 8, 6-wide at some point, yet gaining at nearly each call. 5 wins in 17 starts at RP. Waiting 3 weeks to stretch out. 2 works since at RP
Race 7: 1-6-2 Three Chords, Okie Diva, Jackson Hill.
Jackson Hill best of the non-favorites here. He surged to a 79, beyond his prior start of 42, absorbing a considerable drop in class, 50k to 30k, plus addition of Bute. Waiting since 5/4 to stretch out from 5.5 furlongs. 44% of sprinters in 6 furlong races have won during this meet. 14% of runners have won at this distance from posts 1 through 3.

Race 8: 2-10-3 Cowboy Mischief, Morhawk, Pacific Typhoon.
Morhawk ideal longshot for an upset. He’s the lone late closer of the field, tho has 1 lifetime win in 16, 9 cashes. Gained well vs leader at 2nd call last time out, and nearly won.
Race 9: 1-8-3 Shotgun Kowboy (best bet), Tuff Kid, D Toz.
Tuff Kid best of the rest here. Best AWD numbers (Don’t Get Mad/Tuff Chick, out of Wild Again). 6th race under reclaim by Karl Broberg. 1 win and 2 shows in those 5 races. In his last start, 1st after being 2 months away, and a distance/surface switch, he did better at 2nd call, and gained steadily on leader.

Race 10: 6-2-1 Sweet Mary M, Princess Asya, Special Treasure. Very mild value up front, but no real favorites. I like Special Treasure as a possible. Still a maiden after 3 races here vs 42k horses. Matched lifetime best of 66 last time out. Best tactical speed of these. 1st call numbers: 96, 90, 90. One of several fillies to carry 114, due to her maiden status. Similar track bias to Jackson Hill.

ThoroEnduro (Remington Park) contest picks, 9/29/19

I’m still towards the back of the pack in this year’s ThoroEnduro contest at Remington Park. Not faring well with winners, but have scored with a few longshot, and managed to stay consistent with payouts.
Today is OK Derby Day, with 6 contest races: 3,4, and 10 through 13. Here’s my take:

Race 3: 7-8-9…Valiant Defender, Pickens, Southgate.
Overlays: Valiant Defender, TC’s Image.
Valiant Defender owns the best AWD numbers coming in (Stay Thirsty/Northern Deputy, by Deputy Commander). All 3 lifetime races at 71 or 72, winning his maiden debut at Lone Star, then 2nd in the El Joven at Retama, 5th last out in the Sunday Silence. I have to give him points for consistency. Plus, he’s the lone early closer here, and did nicely last out vs leader at 2nd call.
TC’s Image was 4th in the EL Joven, his debut on turf, and also did well vs leader. Laid off 6 weeks since, slight bounce risk.

Race 4 picks: 11-2-7… Cayman a Bikini, Keetonville and Brilliant Stew. These 3 are all overlays.
Cayman a Bikini set the best distance and turf speed of the field, a 90, 2 races back vs optional claimers for 15k. That was on 8/14 at Retama, making her 2 for 2 on turf lifetime. Switches back to Sasha Risenhoover as well as turf here.
Keetonville has a prior 1st-off-layoff victory. Best work tab of the field with 6 of them since early May. Showed some backstretch gain last time out.
Brilliant Slew achieved her lifetime best of 90 2 races back last month at Retama, matched with an 88 since. She’s proven to be the true speed of the field; last 3 numbers are 88, 90, 70. Even her 88 could have been faster, as she ran just a bit wide at the turn, but contended throughout.

Race 10: 1-3-5: Spring Steen, Poets Dreamed, Brave Daisey.
Poets Dreamed is the lone overlay here. Never mind the 30-1 odds; she won her debut vs 100k maidens at Oaklawn in April, 75 BRIS. Followed up with an 81 vs 34k allowance horses here last month. Both were on dirt tho neither in optimal, fast conditions. The trip last out was somewhat eventful, with a bumpy start from the gate, and a wide trip around the turn, yet still showed some fight at the end. Only early closer in the field.

Race 11 picks: 4-1-11 Lookin At Lee, Keep Quiet, Net Gain. Overlays are Lookin at Lee and Net Gain.
Lookin at Lee won the Albuquerque Downs Handicap last time with small new top of 102, 2 races back. This late closer has the best tactical speed of the field. Last 3 stretch call numbers: 112, 100, 91. 4 works at RP since the Governor’s Cup on 8/23, 1 bullet amidst them.
Net Gain I mainly value for consistency. Last 3 BRIS numbers: 94, 89, 93. In fact, in the last 10 races, going back a year, he’s ranged from 86 to 96.

OK Derby: 9-10-4 Long Range Toddy, Mucho Gusto, Sleepy Eyes Todd.
Overlays: Long Range Toddy, Chess Chief, Sleepy Eyes Todd

Long Range Toddy’s lifetime wins include the Grade 2 Rebel, and 3 races here: The Springboard Mile, the Clever Trevor and his 2nd maiden race. 3 wins in 4 races here, with a top speed of 89 in the Springboard. Off since the Indiana (Downs) Derby on 7/13(briefly leader halfway through), he’s posted 4 RP works, last one a bullet. This is my best bet of the day.

Chess Chief hasn’t proven much since his maiden victory at Fair Grounds in March. He did post a lifetime best 99 last time out in the Travers, despite finishing 8th. Last 3 BRIS: 99, 91, 94. Only worried about a bounce here.
Sleepy Eyes Todd has 3 wins in 5, and debuts in Graded company as well as this 9-furlong distance. Won last time out with a 102 at Canterbury, good track, vs 25k optional claimers. David Cabrera is back in the saddle for him; this plus the familiarity of running at RP should be helpful.

Race 13: 11-3-10…Smart Lassie, Trixie Racer, Twirling Around. Overlays: Smart Lassie, Twiring Around, Tap and Spin, and Lone Star Lady.

Smart Lassie I judge on the relative quick trip, a 67 BRIS from her lone start. It was a slightly wide trip, that race here 10 days ago, though still gained a bit at 2nd call, and finished 4th.

Twirling Around took a bounce after graduating from maiden company and debuting both on turf, Retama, and at a route. She’d be expect to bounce back, cutting back to a sprint and a slightly smaller class.

Lone Star Lady took 3 tries to break maiden status and did so with a n 11-length win last out at Retama in August, 82 BRIS. Should do well with the 2nd small increase in distance and the 45 day layoff.

Tap and Spin ships from Lone Star, winning her maiden debut, then a distance 9th in a 100k event. Laid off since mid-July, she’s got 5 RP works, 3 of them very fast.

Remington Park stakes analysis, 9/30/18

Even though I temporarily am ‘in the barn’
with the ThoroEnduro contest at
Remington Park, and am missing out on
the 6 races all-stakes contest day, I
decided to give you my picks and analysis
for the 6 races:

6th race is the Red Earth Stakes, 7.5
furlongs on the turf course, open to
3YOs+ OK foals. Top 3 are 3-9-
7….favored Pacific Typhoon, then longshot
overlays Night Strike and Tenspeed.
Curmit is another overlay here.
I actually have both overlays very close in
this one. Night Strike I like on the strength
of his most recent race, facing OK breds at
the 43k allowance level. It was a slow
paced race for this deep closer, who stayed
closed to the lead in this 8-horse field. He
had improved 5 points at 1st call from his
last effort 2.5 months prior, and improved
a bit at 2nd call within the race.
Tenspeed has a very similar
pattern…improvement 6 weeks after layoff
at 1st call, and a gain of 2.5 lengths at 2nd
call in his last race vs 10k claimers. Gets
positive trainer change to Lynn Chleborad,
currently at 24% wins.
Curmit could bounce back in pace after
acheiving his lifetime best of 89 2 races
back last December. He bounced to 79
last out to begin his 4YO campaign route-
to-sprint. He’s the lone early closer of this
field. He might require a fast pace to win.

7th is the David M Vance Stakes, 150k
purse for 3YO+ going 6 furlongs. Top 3
are 2 of the favorites in Pop Keenan and
Welder, followed by Devil’s Halo. Leadem
in Ken is the lone overlay. 7-2-3
Devil’s Halo has 2 wins in 4 lifetime, his
maiden debut at the 58k level, then an 87k
allowance with a 94 BRIS score. He remains
under influence from that score and
should run back to it. Leadem in Ken gets
positive jockey switch to Israel Hernandez,
with whom he has 2 recent wins, tho
hasn’t been part of the RP meet. Early-
presser horses have won 15 of 42 races at
6 furlongs during the meet so far. Posts 4
-7 are winning 15% of them.

9th is when we really get going with the
values. This is
the Bob Barry Memorial Stake, for
fillies/mares 3YO+ going 7.5 furlongs on
turf, for a purse of 70k. Top 3 are 8-7-4..
Fiddler’s Tsumai, Just Leave and Penguini.
Overlays: Fiddler’s Tsunami, Penguini,
MImi’s Money, Rosie O’Prado and Sunday
Night Miss.
Fiddler’s Tsumani as an early.-presser has
the best tactical speed of the field. Recent
pattern of BRIS scores: 86, 84, 80.
Finished 4th and wide last time but well vs
40k horses in a 5-furlong allowance race,
just her 2nd time on turf.
Penguini was 6th in this race last year.
This race serves as her 6YO debut. She’s
done a number of works here since
October, last one very fast at 4 furlongs.
Mimi’s Money could benefit from track
bias. In 7 turf sprints during this meet, late
closers have won 2; 18% winners have
come from posts 4-7.
Rosie O’Prado owns strong AWD numbers
here (Paddy O’Prado/Nashwan Rose from
GB, out of Nashwan). Carries the low
weight of 112 in this field due to non-
winners allowance and 3YO status.
Improved at 2nd call upon her 3YO debut
just 2 weeks ago here.
Sunday Night Miss did well in her 4YO
debut, improving 11 points at 2nd call
since her prior race, and closed up 2
lengths against the leader then, winning by
1.5 lengths in a 46k allowance race vs
fellow OK fillies.

10th race is the Remington Park Oaks,
Grade 3 event for 3YO fillies, an 8.5
furlong race, with a 200k purse. Top 3 are
10-5-3…Hold Her Tight, She’s a Julie and
Remedy.
Hold Her Tight is one of the 2 overlays.
Prior winner fresh off layoff. Track bias
from small sample can benefit the outside
post. Busy worktab with 3 bullets in prep.
Remedy recovered in pace progress 4 races
after layoff and the beginning of her 3YO
season. 91 winner last time out vs 25k
optional-claimer, running on dirt following
2 on turf. That 91 is her new lifetime best
tho could bounce from there. She is the
lone sprinter of the field.

11th is the marquee race, the Oklahoma
Derby. This event is Grade 3 for 3YOs, 9
furlongs on dirt, for a $400k purse. Top e
are 3-1-11….Believe in Royalty, Lionite
and First Mondays.
Believe in Royalty is an overlay here.
Winner last tims in Iowa Derby with an 88.
Waiting the longest of this field to stretch
out. 4 works in prep with 1 very fast.
Improved well vs leader at 2nd call last
time out.
First Mondays owns the best pace pattern
of the field. He has 3 lifetime runs, with
BRIS scores of 93, 94, 94, and 2 wins plus
a 3rd. 3rd last time out in the Grade 3
Smarty Jones.

12th is the Ricks Memorial, 8.5 furlongs
on turf for fillies/mares 3YO+, 75k purse.
Top 3 are 1-6-8, all longshot overlays:
Little Code, Titled, Strive.
Little Code receives great training in prep
from Steve Asmussen, a 23% winner here.
Drops 4 lbs here, a move that granted
Little Code a win 2 races back. 3 works in
prep, last 2 being very fast.
Titled comes out of her lifetime best, a
small new top of 86. This early/presser
has the best tactical speed of the field. Ran
6th with an 86 in a 50k ungraded stakes
event last time out, tho could have done
better if it weren’t for traffic issues.
Strive was reclaimed by 18% winner Donnie
Von Hemel. Best distance, track and turf
speed of the field, a 94, which was
achieved in last year’s running of this race.

Enlightened Trails (Assiniboia Downs) update plus reintro to Remington Park contest

The latest version of the Trails are here:
Derby: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13Jb4lEUn–ZEaYja-cv7TGnvnEjOCvCnDtfe1KMhxXs/edit#gid=0

Oaks: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17Jysm6YIt5uh49cgmgVTYhLjq9Qd75vhiogGLx8Y2Ao/edit#gid=0

Today’s Enlightened race is the Winnipeg Futurity at Assiniboia Downs…a race for open company 2YOs going 6 furlongs, with a 25k purse. Points for top 4: 100-50-25-10.  The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the Osiris, on the Derby Trail side, are running here as well: Dixieland Lake and Ty Lane.

My top 3 here are Trooper John and Escape Clause, a race where there is no overlay, and the favorites should win out.
Trooper John is the absolute speed, a horse with good backstretch runs. In 4 races at Northlands Park lifetime, he won his maiden-breaker, then was 3rd in the Edmonton Juvenile, then 2nd in an allowance. His lone win was his best score, an 87 Brisnet.  Followed it up with a 73, best for the distance of the field. I like that he gained well on the leader last time out between calls.
Bonus: Today begins the ThoroEnduro contest at Remington Park, a very permissive elimination contest. You must pick 1 horse in 3 contest races to finish 3rd or better.  Any miss of a day counts against you, with 2 lifelines to keep you going. Those missed days or picks on those days put you in the ‘barn’, which means you cannot play further that week, therefore falling behind until the next week.   Lose all your lifelines and then you must be very patient to wait it out. On a few days, some lifelines will be handed out.  There is also the absolute cutoff date for the barn. So when that date passes, you are gone from the tournament.  I was 2nd in this tournament in 2013, good for $1000.
Scores are based on WPS mutuel payouts at $2, with daily, weekly and game-long prizes to win.
My picks in the contest races for today, races, 4,8 and 9 are 4/1/5. Devious Rumor in 8th has positive pace form, speed figures in the 90s with small new tops, and benefits from sprinter/rail pace bias for turf sprints thus far this meet.
Play along, or watch to see how I do, at http://www.thoroenduro.com  (I am radiocblue)

Enlightened Trails update: Stakes action at Remington Park

A year since my first ever contest cashing, in last year’s ThoroEnduro at Remington Park, it’s been a somewhat bumpy ride attempting to repeat glory. Looking at my stats, it seems that I did very well early on…then had a run of terrible days with barely anything to cash.  November 14 was my best day, picking 2 of 3 horses for strong value,  close to $100 in earnings.    I am finishing this year’s tournament near the back of the pack.  Entering today’s 6 race finale, I am actually nearly dead-last out of 1321 survivors, and accrued earnings of $754.60. 1200 more players were eliminated.  With 186 races wrapped up, that means I averaged a $4 return, out of a mythical $6 investment.   The top 10 players have averaged $6.66 to $7.27 per race.  Barely profitable meet if compared to actual win-place-show wagers, but fun nevertheless.    The fun is over for me, as I have to look forward to paying taxes on the $1000 check I earned for last year’s 2nd place finish.

The final 2 races of the meet are involved in my Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trials.   Before looking at those races, I  must say that Take Charge Brandi is, well, tremendous. As I’ve stated before, I love sprinters who dominate or at least show heart in route races.  She did just that, and now has the overall lead in either EOT or EDT series, with 750 points, 3 wins in the EOT itself.   Feathered and Majestic Presence added to their point totals in the process.

Remington Park’s Trapeze Stakes for top 2YO fillies is the last of the EOT races for the 2YO portion of the series.  Coming into the race, here are the points that have already been earned by the entrants:  Lil Super Bear, 100; Strawberry Baby, 100; Donna’s Royal Slot, 10.    The points for the top 4 in this ungraded stakes event are 100-50-25-10.
Just 5 horses overall outside of Take Charge Brandi have at least 200: By The Moon, Conquest Harlanate, Condo Commando, Sunset Glow, and West Coast Belle.
10 of the 11 horses here have any real shot.  Here’s my top 3:
DANCING DIVA is 1st or 2nd in 3 lifetime, winning the OK Stallion Stakes here last time out with an 87 Brisnet. Previous races were run at 79 and 77. Along with that good trip last time out, both of her lifetime wins came in middle posts.  Value is good at 8-1. I think she’s much better. Overlay
PERFECT FIT has 2 wins in 3 lifetime, winning a 75k optional claimer last time with a 78 Brisnet.This is paired with maiden winner at 82 Brisnet speed.  Top jockey/trainer combo in the field (Berry 24%, Calhoun 25%). I measure this filly as being the speed of the field, and a nice value, as the morning-line suggests 12-1, likely because of the gain in class. Then again, winning 1st race since winning maiden does suggest the sky’s the limit. Overlay
The aforementioned STRAWBERRY BABY bounced last time out in the Clever Trevor here last month, 74 Brisnet.  Coming off Bute, maybe the lack of the drug had its effect. Best average winning distance from pedigree in this field (Warrior’s Reward/Kendall Hill, by champion older horse on 2 continents, the Irish-bred horse Theatrical).  Already having won gaining from maiden as well as stretching out from 7 furlongs, she should retain value in the public pools. Morning line says 8-1, which is about right.
Looks like an excellent betting race on tap.
Turning now to the Enlightened Derby Trail, and the last 2YO race for the year in the series, the Springboard Mile is worth 250k. Points here are allocated the same as in the Trapeze.  Just one horse in the field has any EDT points coming in: It’ll Be Fine, 4th in the Sunday Silence, 10 points.
HIGH NOON RIDER, shipping from NY tracks, broke maiden in his 3rd effort with a dazzling 97 Brisnet, first time on dirt, on a race scheduled for turf.  Best AWD numbers here (Distorted Humor/Modesty Blaise, by the legend AP Indy). I give high marks mainly because of this sprinter’s great route win last time, dueling much of the way.  The 97 score was a big spike over his 76 score prior.   3-1 morning line is accurate.  Great works alongsides.
PHENOMENAL PHOENIX broke maiden in 2nd lifetime start, both at Remington, both races in the early 80s.  Berry in the irons is paired with trainer Donnie Von Hemel (15% wins). Track bias in favor: In 90 mile races on the dirt here, 29 of them, 32% have been won with a stalking trip. Morning line is 12-1. I think he’s an overlay, worth more like 5-1.
SHOTGUN KOWBOY is the pregame favorite, with wins in the Clever Trevor and the OK Juvenile, plus a 3rd in the Kip Devillle, plus a strong win in his maiden debut.  Strong pace numbers, with an 89 last time out, which actually may present a bounce, having raced in the 90s prior to that.  Proven to win from gain in class and stretch out, plus it being 5 weeks since last stretchout, must consider.
Both the EOT and EDT series go dark until January. In the next post after these races, I’ll give an update re the points.
Et cetera:
*Woke up too late to do day 4 of the Festivus Challenge at Tampa Bay Downs, so I’m out of that contest.
*Will give you a look at the college bowl participants and predict the winners in a later post.
*Not pleased that no players got into the Baseball Hall Of Fame and Museum via the new Veterans Committee, tho I like that Dick Allen did come closest.

Enlightened Derby Trail update, analysis of stakes at Emerald, Remington

The Enlightened Derby Trail continues it’s trek toward next year’s Run For All Those Roses with today’s Gottstein Futurity at Auburn, WA’s Emerald Downs.   This will be my home track as I’m moving, somehow, to the Seattle metro area in the next few weeks. Great timing on my part as it’s actually closing day.
Here’s my look at the contenders:

1 PRIME ENGINE won his maiden debut at the 18k level in pure cruise control in the stretch.  Best average winning distance from pedigree (Northern Afleet/Gravy Train’s Song, by Unbridled’s Song).  ML odds: 8/5. My odds: 20/1 Dark horse.

2 VAL DE SAIRE is the one horse who was a steady increase in pace. Ater his 2nd place finish in his maiden debut in August, he increased Brisnet speed to 66 in another ungraded stakes race. Finally he breaks maiden status in his most recent race at the 18k level, pairing up the 66 with a 69. It could be a sign of better things. He’s the best of the 3 late threats should there be a pace duel. ML odds: 15-1. My odds: 9/2. Contender, overlay.

3 OLD FASHIONED GRIT won his maiden debut with a good stalking effort. 3 works since, then, 1 rather fast, best work tab of the field. He’s the x factor here. Will he keep pace with Trackattacker? ML odds: 10/1.  My odds: 7/1   Contender, possibly an overlay.

5 TRACKATTACKER is the other ML fave at 8/5 and deservedly so.  He leads in nearly every variable I track.  After winning his maiden debut, he was on layoff, then won 3 straight ungraded stakes also at Emerald, all at 50k, and wiring the field, winning each race with ease.  This is a superbly exciting horse to see.  I am declaring the race the Trackattacker Invitational, and he easily should pick up the 100 points for the EDT race.

Top 4
5 Trackattacker
3 Old Fashioned Gift
2 Val de Saire
1 Prime Engine
*****
Now the capsule view..just the top 3 contenders profiled…for the 6 ThoroEnduro contest races at Remington Park.

Race 2 is the a 5.5 furlong claiming race for fillies and mares who are non-winners of 2 races.

5 DELIGHTFUL DELILAH graduated from maiden status in his 4th try last time out, his first race at RP. He wired the field with a 69 Brisnet score. This, paired up with  65 in previous may indicate better things today.  Best jockey/trainer combo: Jareth Loveberry (21% wins), JR Caldwell (30%). ML odds: 4/1. My odds: 2/1. Favorite,.
4 DAKAMO DENIA broke maiden in 2nd start nearly 2 years ago, and has had trouble in higher class ever since. 89 Brisnet score from 2 years ago is best speed on RP surface of this field. Off a year long layoff, she’s worked out steadily since, with 1 recent work being rather fast, and having run 4 furlongs in those works in the last 3. Respective to post position, she runs the fastest of these.  ML odds 2/1. My odds: 6/1.
10 ETASONG graduated last year at Lone Star, and also had trouble against better fillies since, even with recent switch to route and turf. She switches back to dirt and sprint here.  This sprinter has the best early and consistent speed for her style in her class.  Looking for a bounceback, after scores of 47, 57 and 47 in the last 3 races.  ML odds: 30/1. My odds: 6/1. Overlay.

Not much value for this race. Frankly I think it’s a one horse race, with the real race being for 2nd.
Race 5 is the Remington Green Stakes, 9 furlongs on turf, for 3YO+., 100k.
5 HOLIDAY MISCHIEF comes out of a 6th place finish in the Unbridled at Lousiana Downs, and prior to that, 2 dazzling Brisnet scores of 105 and 107, the John Bullit and a 35k allowance race respectively.  Top jockey/trainer here: CM Berry is 20% Joe Offolter 10%. Nice pace overall from a middle post. I’m expecting a bounce back up considering the 85 he posted in his last race.  Track bias in his favor also: Sprinters in turf routes are winning 36%, and posts 4 through 7 are 13% winners. ML odds: 20/1. My odds: Better than 2/1. Favorite, overlay.
6 GENTLEMAN’S KITTEN won a 50k ungraded stakes last time out, matching his lifetime best with a 102 score. 5 wins in 12 lifetime on the turf. That 102 score is the best of the field on turf. 95 for the distance, achieved in Fair Grounds this winter, is also tops of the field.  Only hose in the field with good pace progression considering the 102 and the gain from his previous start. I rank this stalker as fastest of the field. Another horse who can benefit from the middle post. ML odds: 8/5. My odds: 2/1.
4 GREENGRASSOFWYOMING last won in February in a 50k allowance race. On a 2 month layoff, posted 4 works at Churchill, with 2 works very fast. Also prefers a middle post.  ML odds: 6/1. My odds: 8/1.
Challenging contest race here, which is really between 5 and 6, calling for a major upset by 5.
Race 6 is the Flashy Lady Stakes, 50k, fillies and mares 3YO+ going 6 furlongs.
4 SNAPPY GIRL is 12 of 18 in the money lifetime, 7 wnis, and a streak of 7 in the money, and won 2 ungraded stakes in the process. Switches from turf to dirt and back up from 5 furlongs, a frequented switch in her career as of late. Best class win was a 100k stakes win at Evangeline Downs earlier this year. Comes out of 2 races posting her lifetime best Brisnet scores of 99 each. 3 workke s since last at RP, 2 of them very fast. Very good trip last time out, wiring the field. ML odds: 9/5. My odds: 2/1. Favorite
7 LASTING BUBBLES ships from TX, has 6 wins and 2 2nds at the distance, plus a 102 lifetime best for the distance, best of this field. Trainer Kevin Peek has 7 wins and 13 placings with horses shipping in, for a decent return of 2.37.  On the bench since mid-July, she has proven to win without rust previously. Gained from 84 to 100 in last race, with a great stalking trip in the Valor Farms. She is definitely the speed of the field.  ML odds: 2/1. My odds: 9/2.
8 AMERICAN SUGAR is the lone closer. Best AWD numbers here (Harlan’s Holiday/I Love America, by Quiet American). 2 wins in 4 here at RP, with a 95 Brisnet, which is best of this field. That score was achieved last November. Posted scores of 82 in a 6 furlong sprint on dirt, then 90 in a turf sprint, then 82 in a turf route.  With the distance and surface switch, this may aid in a bounceback.  ML odds: 30/1. Me: 8/1. Overlay.
Another tough race to figure but the chalk should bear out.
Race 9 is the marquee race, the Oklahoma Derby, a Grade 3 race for 3YOs, going 9 furlongs. 14 horses going at it. This to me was the toughest race I’ve had to study in a long time.
3 STREET PRANCER in the money 4 times of last 5 races, including 3 wins.  Posted a lifetime best 87 2 races back in a 75k stakes win, then trailed off to 74 in a distant 2nd place finish in a 50k stakes event. Best works of the field, with all 3 at RP, 1 very fast. Won 2 races from an inner post. Aiming for a bounceback in this effort today.  ML odds: 30/1  Me: 3/1. Favorite and overlay.
7 TONITO M started his career south of the 48 in Puerto Rico, then has had alternating mixed results in the US, but all in sharp company. Best horse in pace progression of the field.  In studying the generally blank races he ran at Canonero Race Track, he’s definitely improved overall with the stateside runs, including a 95 Brisnet last time out in a 200k stakes race. It can be surmised it’s his lifetime best.  ML odds: 8/1. My odds: 9/2. Overlay.
10 IBAKA has 6 wins in 8 lifetime, and a 5 race win streak.  Also has 2 wins and a show with a 94 best score at RP, best score of this field. That was his graduation out of maiden status in November 2013. Outside post should not be an issue.  Looked good in his stalking effort last time out in a 44k statebred allowance race here in August.  ML odds: 15/1. My odds: 5/1. Overlay.
Yes, 3 overlays per morning-line, in what should be an exciting event.  This is one to savor.

Race 9 is the Remington Park Oaks for 3YO fillies going 8.5 furlongs, 200k at stake.

4 SHANNON NICOLE is a runaway fave here. The closer had won a 200k race at Indiana Downs last time out after mixed blessings in other races of lesser class. She’s also unaffected by rust, having won off layoff in that prior race. Gained from 88 to 94 Brisnet, which is her lifetime best, and a short new top at that. That is a good sign.   She’s also the speed of the field with a great stretch kick, has 4 works since last race, 3 very fast, one a bullet. More? Also likes a middle post. and is one of 2 horses with a relatively clean trip coming in. ML odds: 3/1. I fully agree, and probably better than that.
6 LADY FIFTY TWO won the Washington Oaks last time out at Emerald in August, then headed to the bench. Pace progression is her best feature. Gained a new top going from 82 to 90 in the race at Emerald.   Has to be considered to get a piece.  ML odds: 12/1. My odds: 9/2. Overlay.
3 HAVEYOUGONEAWAY won a 40k allowance race last time out in her only start at Remington, with an 86 Brisnet. That’s best for the track in this field.  Best jockey/trainer combo here: Jareth Loveberry has 21% wins, and Allen Milligan has 9%.  ML odds: 12/1. My odds: 9/1. Possible overlay.
One horse race here, as Shannon Nicole is my lock between all 6 races.

Race 10 is the Remington Park Sprint Cup Stakes, 3YO+ going 6 furlongs for 150k.

7 ALSVID won ungraded stakes at Prairie Meadows and Zia in the last year. 4 wins and a 2nd lifetime at RP. 107 Brisnet is best of those who have raced at RP. 7 wins and 6 2nds in 15 lifetime for the distance with a lifetime best of 113; clearly he’s master of the distance of the field.  Jockey/trainer combo advantage is this: CM Berry with 20% and Chris Hartman with 13%. No rust for this gelding, having won off layoff prior. I have the stalking horse rated as fastest of the field. Nice works too: 6 in all, 5 at RP, 2 very fast, last one a bullet.  ML odds: 5/1. My odds: better than 2/1. Favorite.
8 CASTLETOWN won a 40k restricted stakes effort at Cantebury last time out, surging in Brisnet from 93 to a lifetime best 104.  That new top is slightly better than a 101 she ran 2 years hence.  Good sprinting effort last time too.  ML odds: 9/2. My odds fully agree.
6 HEITAI is the only other sprinter here. Switches from turf and gains a furlong after a 3 month layoff and a great sprinting effort in a 300k stakes race.  4 works in the layoff at RP, last one a bullet. Middle post should help chances.
Very good betting race here tho I have 7 the clear choice at mild value.

future plans for handicapping

hinking of going back to ‘capping (going back to ‘capping..going back to ‘capping. Hm. There’s a song in there). Actually I have been handicapping since a self-imposed ban on posting about it. I’ve taken in a couple of free (that means no-cost to me) online challenges run by 123 racing. One is elimination-style at Monmouth Park..where you get to pick 1 horse per race in 3 chosen races. If you fail to hit the $ you get 2 more chances to avoid being shutout again. And if you last long into the competition, you get another ‘horseshoe’. I’m on my last free horseshoe with a few more weekends to go. Haven’t picked a lot of winners, but the favorites have come in when needed.
At Emerald Downs, a small track in Aurora, WA, the challenge is simply to earn the most based on the mutuel prices, using a $2 win/place/show bet, one hrose per race, in the last 6 races of each card, no elims. I’m in the upper third of all players, consistently getting my shares of wins and placings.
Even tho some major races are ahead this weekend, I have no temptation of gambling, being that I really can’t afford it.
Nevertheless I am redoing my system just a bit to give certain variables more weight, and also include something called trip handicapping. This involves, for me, watching the replay of the last race of each horse entered. It adds maybe another 15 minutes on top of my usual 10-15 minutes per race, but I feel it’s worthy. On my own, I had already felt like I knew how to watch a race, seeing when a jockey calls upon a horse, when horses travel wide, or when they make a move. I think sometimes I fail to see how a horse could have done when hemmed in in the stretch, or similar. And sometimes, having to watch online, you can’t always see how a horse gallops out after the race, seeing who is still full of run after the race.
While that is happening, I found a great instructional video on the almighty YouTube from the folks at HorsePlayerNow, giving equal time to thoroughbred and standardbred (yes, the one’s with the ‘drivers’ in the ‘sulkies’). Both systems can be looked at equally. Hmmm. Maybe I can wean myself away from my difference in understanding past performances in the latter. Meanwhile, I will concentrate on the thoroughbreds. In the video, there are nuggets of wisdom about the type of horse that is either compromised or aided along with the sequences of action in the race.

I paired this with an informative document that looks at a horse’s run style, be it sprinter, closer or somewhere in between. The stress is on pace, positioning and the race shape based on who’s in the field and the collection of styles. Add to this the prevailing track bias, and you have angles that some horseplayers don’t take into account. This is why I absolutely adore Brisnet and their BRIS ratings for including this in their ‘ultimate’ past performances.

So here’s what I have to look forward to this weekend:

Friday I handicap 3 races at Monmouth for Friday, and also the prescribed 6 for Emerald. Total of 9.
Saturday a new challenge, elim style, starts up at Remington Park, and I’m sure that’s 3 races worth. There is 3 more at Monmouth (IF I’m not shut out), 6 at Emerald, and 8 more with a one-day challenge from the folks at Equibase, with a focus on picking 1 horse to win 8 races, using $2 win and place only. The races include 5 major races at Saratoga (including the Travers) and 3 at Del Mar (including the Pacific Classic)
20 races in all.
Sunday? No idea what will be running those days.

I will devote the next handicapping post to  Saturday’s Travers and Pacific Classic, plus pick out a race on Friday for you all. 

Again, I share this info with no intent to gamble, and I do not have any temptation to do so. Frankly, I don’t care whether you do or not. If you do, hopefully you’ll feel armed with good knowledge.