Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum ballots have been delivered to the BBWAA members (read: long-time sportswriters, many of whom have never played the game), and now the countdown to the inevitable question begins again. Who will get inducted next year?
I have slightly expanded my reach of variables, tho still including stats from the venerable website www.baseball-reference.com The 10 variables I use to evaluate all players are these: Black Ink, Grey Ink, HOF Standards, HOF Monitor, JAWS, JAWSpos, WAR, WAR7 (7 year peak score), most similarity scores by career stats, most similarity scores per age. Descriptions for these are in their website’s glossary; no need to repeat here.
The players with the most top 10 ranks are the ones I would vote for. If I have to break a tie, I’ll compare the players involved on a head-to-head basis.
I considered my own formula, the combo of Fear Factor and the Bill James stat % of Offensive Value (and its pitcher equivalent, which is my creation), but will leave this aside for now.
The attached spreadsheet reveals the research on the 36 players on the ballot.
I only counted the top 10 in each category. Here are the benchmarks that were created for each variable based on the ranks.
Black Ink: 100 to 23. Any player scoring under 23 were out of the top 10. Frank Thomas is out at 21. In at 23 is Don Mattingly.
Grey Ink: 336 to 157. In at 157 is Bagwell. Out at 138 is Sammy Sosa.
HOF Monitor: 336 to 171 (Schilling). McGwire is 170 and out.
HOF Standard: 76 to 54 (Mussina). Out at 52: Sosa, Glavine.
WAR: 162.5 to 71.5 (Palmeiro). Out at 70.3 is Trammell.
WAR7: 72.8 to 44.3(Glavine) Out at 43.7 is Sosa.
JAWS: 117.7 to 57.5(Trammell) Out at 55.9 is Edgar Martinez.
JAWSpos: 1 to 11. 11 players in this stat counted here. In at 11 are Edgar Martinez, Trammell, Palmeiro. Out at 14 are Biggio and Lee Smith.
Similarity score by career stats: 9 to 4. 11 players qualified. In at 4 are Raines, Mussina, Glavine. Out with 3 are Larry Walker, McGriff, Frank Thomas, Kent, Luis Gonzalez and Leon Durham.
Similarity by age ranged from 14 to 4 between 9 players and left the cutoff there. In at 4 seasons are Lee Smith and Frank Thomas. Out with 3 are Biggio, Walker, Glavine, Durham.

My vote would go to these 10
Bonds
Maddux

Frank Thomas
Bagwell
Larry Walker
Glavine
Palmeiro
Schilling
Mussina.

First four out: Piazza, Raines, Trammell, Sosa.

In all, 21 of the 36 players received some top 10 consideration, and only 4 of the first timers at that.
I also looked at the players up for the early election via the Veterans Committee. I chose 7 players from the list and compared their numbers to this year’s standard ballot. Only Tommy John and Ted Simmons had any impact for comparison Joe Torre, who likely will be inducted as a manager anyway, got one top 10 entry, as did Dave Parker. Overall, none of those players deserve entry, but surely the executives and other figures will.

What I really want to study, beyond numbers, is see the actual ballots of actual writers and guess how they might vote next. That may be a Part 2 to this post.

Here’s the full spreadsheet

Idealistic Sport show #3 4/19/13

To hear this program you can access the Feedplayer linked at http://www.idealisticstats.wordpress.com That player gives you options to stream, download and share the content.
.mp3:  https://idealisticstats.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/idsport041913.mp3

RSS: http://www.bigcontact.com/idealisticsport/rss

I discussed golf and my pics for this week’s RBC Heritage Open at Harbour Town Golf Links. For boxing, I focused on 3 bouts that are taking place on 4/20 including biorhythmic study. Tennis not in focus, as the finalists in the ATP event is on Sunday, participants to be determined. Likewise I could not present a top 10 guess for drivers at Sunday’s NASCAR Sprint Cup event but I did give you the main particulars as to who has driven well at Kansas Speedway. Horse racing: I got in-depth about the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, taking place at Keeneland on 4/20.
Music for this show in order of appearance:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride the Sky http://www.anniewenz.com
Theopolis James “Our Brave” – A Different Kind Of Evil http://www.thirstyrecords.com
Automatic Children “Coming Over Me” – New Is Beautiful http://www.automaticchildren.com
Fellaheen “Karma’s Dog” – Death & Frolic http://www.fellaheen.com

This show ran 62 minutos, recorded and published on 4/19/13

Dan Herman
http://www.idealisticstats.wordpress.com
cblue456@comcast.net
@radiocblue
http://www.facebook.com/radiocblue

Introducing: Idealistic Sport podcast!

A call to sabermetricians, statheads, fantasy geeks, INFPs, and dreamers in flannel jerseys. This show is for you!
Idealistic Sport is my new podcast, focusing on out-of-the-box opinion, education, and predictions of different forms of sports.
Still in pre-production, Idealistic Sport begins life this weekend as I provide my idealistic take on various sports, and also share some statistical knowledge that I’ve done within each. I may have comments on current sports events. I also will wrap up each show with specific predictions for events occuring on that weekend. I may have a midweek version covering events happening before that weekend.
Coming from my music radio background in Radio Crystal Blue, I plan to have some musical interludes during each podcast
Sports I’m covering in focus, in no particular order of interest, include:
Thoroughbred racing
Auto racing
Tennis
Golf
Boxing
I don’t forget the major sports, tho outside of baseball, I have precious little to add to the other classic majors.
 
This weekly podcast will be available through my blog www.idealisticstats.wordpress.com as an audio stream, via download, and also replayable for as long as there’s room on the server. Typically this will be 6 months plus. The viral player housing the podcasts can be shared on one’s website or blog. The player will be further accessible as a Web site at http://bigcontact.com/idealisticsport
 
The initial podcast is currently slated to be recorded on Friday April 5. I plan to give an introductory welcome, present my thoughts on different sports and more of my own statistical and sports background. I’ll rely on some info from my blog site with regard to statistical formulas, including I’ve created for baseball. Finally I’ll give predictions and analysis on these events:
Horses: Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial
Boxing: Friday Night Fights
NASCAR Sprint Cup
Tennis: Family Circle Cup & Monterrey Open
On the blog:
All predictions and analysis made on the blog are the final word. When I record the show on Fridays, I am fully aware that many factors can change my own analysis and therefore my outlook.
Saturday morning I’ll give coverage to all 11 Graded stakes races that are being run, once late changes are presented. Also there’s the big Grand National at Aintree which will be the first race I focus on that day.
NCAA recap of my picks across 4 brackets for the men’s basketball tournament.
Sunday: NASCAR Sprint Cup selections.
Sunday: Finals in both women’s tournaments.
Later next week by Wednesday I’ll give analysis of this year’s Masters golf tournament.
Have your own say on what I’m presenting? Do you have analysis of your own?Want to suggest/contribute music for Idealistic Sport? Have at me at these locations:
Twitter: @radiocblue

Welcome aboard!

Rebooting the Tumblr presence on WordPress, making the transition with a new interface, interaction, inter-everything. Looking forward to connecting with you about sports, stats, and, maybe some other stuff.   I aim to post daily and at whim on various thoughts on sports.
If you’re a music aficionado, and enjoy the music of indie/underground/DIY types, you might want to peruse my other WordPress site

In the next week or so I will be posting info about the Big Game Super Bowl, and some thoughts on the first of three Kentucky Derby betting pools.    A personal primer coming up next.