Time to go horse-for-horse in the big event for fillies this week, the Black-Eyed Susans. this race is 9 furlongs in length, for a purse of $250k. 10 fillies are contesting this race.
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TELL YOUR MAMA has run since late last summer, still a maiden after 10 races. She’s run from levels 51k to 74, eased out of the Breeders Cup Fillies, and was 4th in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Best score was 83 in her 4th race, going from route to sprint for the first time. Michael and Ann Ewing claimed this filly from original trainer RB Hess Jr after the GP Oaks, saw it finish 2nd with an 80 Brisnet last time out. RB Hess Jr claimed her back upon that effort. I’m noting that a generally positive sign, despite the slight bounce risk moving up 7 points in speed rating.
MIDNIGHT DISGUISE owns 4 wins in 6 races, including the Busher and Busanda, both at her home track of Aqueduct. 4th last out in the Grade 2 Gazelle. Her trip was somewhat wide all through that 9 furlong race, yet still managed an 85, not far off her lifetime best of 91 at age 2. Slight gain at 2nd call in the race also. Gets a positive jockey switch to Irad Ortiz Jr, and adds blinkers for the first time.
Odds prediction: 9-1.
COACH ROCKS was a filly I seriously liked early on, even if it took her 7 tries to break maiden. Followed it up with a win in the GP Oaks, then was 7th in the KY Oaks. Best current pace pattern among fillies (last 3 speed figures were 87, 93, 90).
Odds prediction: 9-1.
RED RUBY won the Martha Washington, then was 4th in the Honeybee. Both races at Oaklawn. Lifetime best of 92 set in her maiden win in November.. Off since 3/10, she has a prior win 1st off layoff, and is waiting the longest of these to stretch. 3 works in prep, 1 work very fast. Nice gain at 2nd call last out in the Honeybee.
MIHRAB comes out of an optional claim win for 50k, this following 3 stakes events with mixed results. She set a nice lifetime best of 87, a spike up from her 58 in the GP Oaks. I have to forecast for a bounce.
CS INCHARGE won in her 5th maiden race, backing that up with a win in Suncoast at Tampa Bay, then was 6th last out in the Ashland. She’s yet to surpass that 92 score from her graduation from maiden status. Considering there is rain in the forecast, and that she put forth a superb score on a muddy Keeneland track for the Ashland, she has to be given some favorable looks. If anything, she did improve at the first 2 calls first race after layoff.
GOODONEHONEY has won both of her lifetime races, a 6 furlong race on 3/24, and the Weber City Miss at 8.5 furlongs on 4/21. She threatens as the true speed of this 10-horse field, having also posted 2nd-call scores of 102 and 92. I can make her a contender on this alone.
INDY UNION was 8th in the Miss Grillo, then won her 4th maiden race with a 93. After that, she bounced to 6th in the Demoiselle with a 71. Then was 2nd in the Weber City Miss, moving up to an 84, improving at each call from prior race first after layoff. Best AWD numbers of the field (pedigree is Union Rags/Fapindy, out of AP Indy). Regular rider Jose Ortiz Jr returns.
SARA STREET won her 2nd maiden race, then was 2nd in the Busher and in the Gazelle. 99 in the Gazelle marks the best speed for today’s distance, and her 3rd consecutive gain. Possibility of a bounce here, especially as she eclipses the track par figure of 96.
STAKES ON A PLANE was 7th in her route debut, the Grade 2 Demoiselles on 12/2. Won a 50k optional claimer on a muddy Laurel track as she began her 3YO career. She spiked up to an 83 with that win. 4th in the Beyond The Wire with an 81, then 4th in the Weber City Miss, matching that 83 score. I like the recent pattern of speed figures, all following a 10 week layoff. Receives Lasix for the first time, usually a good future indicator. Also, she’s the lone closer of the field. With an average pace throughout, she has a real possibility to score an upset or at least run near the shorter-priced horses.
Odds: 3-1. Lone overlay of the field.
Top 3 here, therefore, are Red Ruby, Stakes On A Plane, and Goodonehoney (4-10-7). Coach Rocks is the lone filly beginning with odds better than 4-1. This suggests we’ll have a value-filled race.
I can see using 4 and 7 with each other and over 10 in exactas, saving the 10 for a win wager (plus under the narrow ML choice of Coach Rocks).
As mentioned, with rain forecast for the weekend in Baltimore, an off track must be factored in. Generally, I don’t put much stock in using simply the lifetime figures for conditions, so I can only give CS Incharge so much rope to do better.
Odds movers: Coach Rocks and Sara Street are definitely ones to take on more money by the public. From the back, Tell Your Mama and Mihrab also should be looked at favorably. Getting ignored will be longshot Stakes On A Plane, and Red Ruby. Of course, I happen to like both horses very much.