Analysis of top stakes races at Parx 9/19/15 (updated)

Here’s 3 stakes races at Parx, the top races of the day for Saturday, in lieu of Enlightened Trails coverage.

This posted was edited 930am PT to reflect scratches/changes announced on Saturday.

First is the Gallant Bob Stakes, 6 furlongs, G3 event for 3YOs. My top 3 here are 4-2-3

Trouble Kid 2 wins in 6,5 in the money.  Best AWD numbers from pedigree (Harlan’s Holiday/Triumphantly by Mr.Greeley).  Posted new tops each of last 3 races, peaking last time with 99 in a 25k allowance, winning by 9 in a 5.5 furlong race.  46% of sprinters at 6 furlongs during the meet are winners (plus winners at 13% in posts 1-7). Owns a shipping win; waiting until 8/26 to stretch.
Recount in the money all 7 races,with 5 wins, notably last years Arlington-Washington Futurity.  Forged a 97 Brisnet 2 races back in a 50k ungraded race there, then bounced to 82 last time out at same level.I’m playing the bounceback angle here.  Also,3 strong works at AP in prep, and decent gain on leader early on last time.

Limousine Liberal 2 wins and 1 second lifetime; 2nd in the King’s Bishop last out with a 105 Brisnet, this ahead of a 98 in an allowance win,then his maiden debut win at 54k with an 83. Can he continue to reach new heights? I’m doubtful but his turn time last out is among the best here.
Suggested odds: Trouble Kid 2-1; Bayerd 9-1;  Hebbronville 14-1; Catalina Red 2-1 (overlay); Recount 5-1.

Next is the Cotillion, Grade 1 race, 8.5 furlongs for 3YOs. My top 3 are 4-5-11.
Stroke Play has 5 wins in 12 races, and 3 of 4 at Parx.  Owns 94 Brisnet on this track,best of this field, achieved 2 starts ago, followed up with a 93. This deep closer is best horse as measured by pace. Prior wins gaining in class and distance. Showed gain on leader in last race, as well as increased turn time despite slightly lower speed figure.
Take Charge Brandi 5 wins in 10 races including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies,the Delta Downs Princess, the Starlet and the Mount Washington, all consecutive. Best AWD numbers (Giant’s Causeway/Charming, by Seeking The Gold). 3 bullet works out of 5 strong efforts in prep.  Nice early effort in the Test last time before folding to last of 10.

Don’tforgetaboutme has 2 wins in 6, spiking to a 98 Brisnet last time out. Prior wins gaining in distance and class; gained the lead halfway through her 1 mile-70 yard race at Monmouth last time.
Suggested odds:  Take Charge Brandi 12-1.  I’m A Chatterbox 29-1; Embellish The Lace 14-1; Stroke Play 8-5 (overlay); Desert Valley 9-1 (overlay); Don’tforgetaboume 6-1 (overlay); Tara’s Tango, Keen Pauline, Peace & War, Calamity Kate all 20-1.  No favorites in this one.
Finally the Pennsylvania Derby is a Grade 2 race at 9 furlongs for 3YOs, $1 million at stake.  Top 3 are 7-6-1Tommy Macho 2 wins and 2 seconds in 5; 3rd in the Dwyer, then 7th in the WV Derby last time. Slight downturn from 98 to 93 Brisnet, maybe a mini-bounce. 4 works since, 2 of them very fast.

Frosted won the Wood Memorial and placed in a number of other prime stakes races; 11-2-6-1 lifetime.  Seconditis will not leave him in this race.   Best AWD numbers in the field (Tapit/Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister);  107 Brisnet achieved in the Wood Memorial is best for distance of the field. I measure him fastest of the field on basis of speed figures. His scores since the Wood: 96, 104,100 98. Joel Rosario returns to ride him again. Improved turn time and lowered speed figure in the Travers last out, should improve here.
Upstart won the Fountain Of Youth,Holy Bull and Funny Cide. 10-3-3-2. I like him mainly on the strength of his turn-time dominance.  His 23:2 turn time in the Travers is best of the field, itself a full 2 second gain from his run in the Haskell Invitational.
Suggested odds:  Frosted 3-1; War Story 9-2 (overlay); Island Town 7-1; Madefromlucky 7-1; Tommy Macho 7-1; Upstart 6-1; Mr.Z 10-1.

My monthly handicapping contest picks for The Racing Biz, 1/3/15

Just completed work on 10 races at Laurel Park and Parx Racing, including 4 stakes races at Laurel. I had direct access to past performances in 8 of the races. I took a quick look at jockey/trainer stats to determine the selections for the other 2.
For this contest, only the top horse counts, and only for win/place, for a mythical $2 wager.

Here’s who I selected
Laurel Park
Race 2: Sniper (10-1 morning line)
Race 3: Peaceadaaction (5/2)
Race 4: Stardust Lill (9/2)
Race 5: Lady Sabelia (1/1)
Race 6: Cutty Shark (4/1)
Race 7: Miss Mischief (3/1)
Race 8: Cerro (5/1)
Race 9: Ore Pass (6/1)

Race 7: Blue Cherokee (3/1)
Race 8: Joint Decision (5/2)
I’ll explain Sniper with the little time I have before post time: One of 2 horses to win off a gain in class in his career. Several good works since last race, all at Laurel, including a bullet. Already has a win upon shipping. Only horse stretching out in this field, and it’s been 8 weeks since.

Follow me at @idealisticstats for more coverage on these picks plus the previously cited Ekati’s Phaeton.

Handicapping today’s races at Parx 8/22/12 (part 2)

Race 8 Alphabet Soup Handicap. REVISED: 6-11-8-1
WINCHILL made decent stretch move in last race, but was on the wrong end of a DQ. Trainer Kathleen Demasi has +ROI of 4.38 with horses this year running in ungraded stakes events.  
 I’M SURE has the track speed edge, despite finishing 4th in the Roanoke. He briefly led in the far turn in that 8.5 furlong race but had extra ground to cover, running wide, tired out a bit in the stretch. He had scored a 92 in that race, short of his 96 best much earlier in his career. Also with no works since the Roanoke. Both horses are the early-mid pace style. During the meet, horses racing 8.5 furlongs on the turf who have this style have won at the rate of 40%, and 1-for-1 on such a race this week.

Race 9 Gallant Bob Stakes: Great value. 9-1-4-8 JAKE N ELWOOD comes out of a 25k optional claimer, running lifetime best 100, and has the ‘recovery’ form angle. He had 8 month layoff, ran a 94 in March here, and has finally surpassed that number with that 100 score, fastest of the field on this track. Might bounce from that number, too. Best jockey/trainer combo from regular riders here (Frankie Pennington, 18% wins, and Michael Petro, 14%). RAGING DAOUST is fastest overall (2nd call numbers in last three races are 109, 98, 108). He moved from 95 to lifetime best 104, and he could bounce down also. ROI angle for him: Jockey Victor Santiago has worked with trainer Charles Carlesimo Jr. in 7 races over the last 60 days, winning 2, placing in 5, for a return of +5.20. Also, Carlesimo has raced 13 horses this year who won their last start, earning 23% wins, 38% in the money, for return of +2.78. Both horses will gain from track bias: . As these are early-pace types, such horses running 6 furlongs on dirt during the meet have won at the rate of 37%, and 38% this week.

Race 10 Cotillion Stakes: Just four going at it here. 3-1-4-2. MY MISS AURELIA, undefeated in 5 races including the BC Juvenile Fillies, the Frizette and the Adirondack. She’s got the fastest speed of this field (last 3 2nd call numbers: 86, 111, 97). ROI angle for her: Jockey Corey Nakatani has worked with trainer Steve Asmussen in 3 races in the last 60 days, winning 2 and placing in all 3, for return of +3.00. MOMENT IN DIXIE may be only value here. Could be helped by track bias with her similar early-pace style that is very favorable on this track. Moves from 92 to 98 in last race, slight bounce risk. 
Had good contending run in last race, was 2nd by head at beginning of stretch, lost by half-length.
Race 11 Pennsylvania Derby 6-2-4 (4th will be 1 or 3, whoever has the worse odds). GOLDEN TICKET had that thrilling dead heat finish in the Travers last time out with Alpha, my 3rd choice. Fastest of the field (last 3 overall pace numbers are 102, 95, 93). Travers score of 102 is a new lifetime best, tho might bounce considering the increase from 95. ROI: Jockey David Cohen has worked with trainer Ken McPeek on 25 races in the last 60 days, winning 12%, placing in 32% for a return of +2.18. CASUAL TRICK has the best track speed here, with a score of 96 in a 47k allowance race 2 races back. Best jockey/trainer combo in Stewart Elliott (19% wins) and Nick Zito (24%) Track bias, tho in a small sample, favores Golden Ticket and Handsome Mike re run style, and post positions 1 through 3.

Race 12 Decent value in the final race. 4-6-7-8 BOSSY BREEN has fastest early fractions of the field and this sprinter easily fastest of these. Moved from 70 to 81 in her Equibase figures, so could bounce back. Led much of the way in her last race, had strong pace but was 2nd by 4 lengths last time. GIFT LIST has best track speed, an 86 from a 45k maiden race 2 races back in August. Had dueled much of her last race but mysteriously stopped late in that 6.5 furlong effort.