2015 Kentucky Derby analysis, selections

I sincerely hope that my work in the Enlightened Derby Trail has produced just the right horses.

The ones that reached my mythical Derby that did not make the actual field: Conquest Typhoon, Metaboss, Ami’s Flatter, Bridget’s Big Luvy, Why Two, A Day In Paradise, One Lucky Dane, Bodhisattva. So that means I agree on 12 of the 20 horses. I can live with that.
Here’s the 9 horses that were in the opposite position, those that are in the show but not for me: Ocho Ocho Ocho, Mubtaahij, Itsaknockout, Keen Ice, Mr. Z, Far Right, Frammento, War Story, Bolo

Here’s my analysis of the 2015 Kentucky Derby, horse-for-horse:

OCHO OCHO OCHO won the Delta Downs Jackpot, and won his first 2 races at Santa Anita from an inner post. In fact it’s his 5 race of 6 with an inner post. Gained in Brisnet from 83 to 96 last time out in the Blue Grass Stakes, so a possible bounce risk here.   Not in my top 10.

CARPE DIEM won the Blue Grass, Tampa Bay Derby and Breeders Futurity. Only horse in the field to make a small improvement over his 2YO numbers that still can impact today. He scored 100 in the Breeders Futurity, and then a 102 last time out in the Blue Grass. It was also ahead of his 96 score  in the Tampa Bay Derby…one of three horses to show great pace progress, tho also might show a slight downturn as well.  Projected odds: 15-1.
MATERIALITY is undefeated in 3 at age 3, all at Gulfstream Park, winning the Florida Derby last out with a 105 Brisnet, plus a 100 in the Islamorada.  One of several with outstanding wor tabs…3 works, each very fast, one at Churchill.  Proven to handle extra weight, as he won with 122 in the Florida Derby, gain of 5 from previous. Good current numbers, but is outclassed in this field.  Not in my top 10.
TENCENDUR placed in 3 Graded events to get here. All 5 lifetime races at Aqueduct. Exploded to a 105 Brisnet running 2nd in the Wood Memorial last time out, ahead of a 90 Brisnet in the Gotham. Switches back to Manuel Franco. Certainly a bounce risk here. Not in my top 10.
DANZIG MOON placed in 2 Graded events. Owns a basic recovery angle here. After a pair of 92s (sandwiched by a 14-week layoff), he bounced to 81 in the Tampa Bay Derby then pushed forward to a 99 in the Blue Grass. Bounce risk but minimized by his good pace progress. Projected odds: 15-1. Overlay.
MUBTAAHIJ is the big wildcard, as I have no pace numbers to reference. I have seen him win twice with a middle post, and put up final times that would probably be worth 80 to 90 Brisnet.  Won the UAE Derby to qualify.  Top average winning distance numbers of the field (sire Dubawi, damsire Pennekamp, both of who were multiple stakes winners across Europe). Comes out of a good trip. Projected odds: 42-1.
EL KABEIR switches back to Calvin Borel for this race. Placed in all but 1 race of his 9 lifetime. Won the Kentucky Jockey Club here in the autumn. Several wins from a middle post. Gained in Brisnet from a 95 to  101 in the Wood Memorial last time out, matching his lifetime best. Not in my top 10, tho I’d have ranked him higher if there were an off track situation. He won the Gotham under such conditions.
DORTMUND is undefeated in 6,winning the Santa Anita Derby last time out with a dazzling 106 and totally on the front end. A great effort for this sprinter, tho I take him down a notch for some trouble at the start of that race. 2 wins from a middle post.Best Churchill performance of the field,a 98 winner in an optional-claimer race on 11/29. Inherent numbers in spades. Steady increase in high Brisnet numbers. Projected odds: 10-1. Rank: 6th.
BOLO placed in two Graded events to get here. Only reason to give attention to him is the fact he’s posted a triple of good Brisnet numbers ahead of previous, 98, 100, 102. He could go either way with this. Not enough supporting evidence for a further increase, therefore not in my top 10.  Finished better on turf and seems quicker against Graded rivals on dirt but I doubt this trend will translate in this unique event.
FIRING LINE briefly was my top choice and remains an elite. 1st or 2nd in all 5 races, including a win in the Sunland Derby.  Forged 4 consecutive lifetime bests, up to a 101 last out. Has the most positive trainer changes (Simon Callaghan) of the field. Stretching out from 9 furlongs and hasn’t run since 3/22. Took on 4 extra pounds, 122 in all to win the Sunland, which was also his lone shipper win. One of a few entering this big race with a good, generally trouble-free trip.  Projected odds: 10-1. Rank: 4th. Will include in wagers.
INTERNATIONAL STAR won his last 3, all Graded events (Louisiana Derby, Risen Star, LeComte) all at Fair Grounds, plus the Grey Stakes in Woodbine.  Forged small lifetime bests in his last 4 and each of his 3YO starts, peaking at 99 last time out with a good trip in the Louisiana Derby. His last 3 scores, all in the 90s, are just ahead  of his prior races. I have him ranked evenly with Firing Line, but rank him lower because he has less changes entering.   Projected odds: 10-1. Overlay. Rank: 5th.
ITSAKNOCKOUT placed in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Won 3 of 4 lifetime, all at Gulfstream.  Great work tab here, with 3 works, 2 fast ones, one at Churchill, one a bullet work. 2 wins from a middle post.  Seems ready to win today.  Projected odds: 8-1. Overlay. Rank: 3rd. Will include in wagers.
KEEN ICE scored in 3 Graded events to earn his ticket. All 3 works at Churchill, 2 of them very fast. No real evidence to support a win here.  Not in my top 10.
FROSTED won the Wood Memorial and placed in 3 other Graded events before that. Good recovery angle in play. Following layoff and matching his lifetime best of 98 in the Holy Bull, he bounced to an 89 in the Fountain of Youth, then exploded to 107 last time out.  Another who could go either way with pace.  Both lifetime wins from a middle post.Projected odds: 11-1. Possible overlay.
WAR STORY placed in all 5 lifetime races. Only horse with a blinker change reported (blinkers off for the first time). Despite the small gains in Brisnet scores and placings in Graded events at Fair Grounds, no other evidence to support a win.  Not in my top 10.
MR. Z has run in Graded company for a number of races, and has burned a lot of money in the process.  Needed his 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby to belong.  I was an early believer in him and I’m glad he’s in.  Top dosage profile befitting a winner at Churchill in this field (Malibu Moon/Stormy Bear by Storm Cat). One stat pops out to me: 5 races in the last 60 days for both Ramon Vazquez and  D Wayne Lukas, earning 2 wins and 4 placings, for a 6.04 ROI.  Sharp gain in Brisnet last time out, 76 to 92.  Projected odds: 5-1. Big overlay.  Rank: 2nd.
AMERICAN PHAROAH is the projected favorite, having 4 wins in 5 races including the Arkansas Derby, the Rebel, the Front Runner and the Del Mar Futurity.  Thing is, he’s yet to do any better than his 103 in the Del Mar just after Labor Day. Adds 4 lbs from his prior race; he won the Front Runner adding 6, so carrying 126 shouldn’t be an issue. I did like his trip in the Arkansas Derby but I just can’t find a place for him in the top 10.
UPSTART won the Fountain Of Youth, Holy Bull, and ungraded Funny Cide.  This stalker has the top pace numbers in the field. Last 3 2nd-call numbers are 114, 106, 98. 2 wins from an outer post. Gained in pace from a 95 to a 103 last time out, plus showed a good trip in the Florida Derby last time out. Adds 4 lbs here; added 6 in winning the FOY also.    This is my pick to win the Run for the Roses.  Projected odds: 4-1. Big overlay.
FAR RIGHT won the Southwest, adding 5 lbs for that race, and adds 4 more here. Also won the ungraded Smarty Jones. No evidence to support a win here today.  Out of the top 10.
FRAMMENTO gets in with the defection of Stanford (whom I did like a lot early on). Placed in the Blue Grass and FOY. Also has no evidence to support a win. Out of the Top 10.
My top 4 that I will use in wins and exactas to each other, with a few exceptions:
1 Upstart
2 Mr. Z
3 Firing Line

4 Itsaknockout

Future wager impact:

To win:
Mr. Z 44-1
Dortmund 10-1
Upstart 18-1
I have exactas between Upstart over and under field from Pool 4: Tencendur, Danzig Moon, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Frammento.
Should any of my horses from here do worse in odds on Saturday, I’ll put up an extra win bet.  I will not wager extra if the odds are better.  As you know, I can afford to just keep things simple: $2 win bets, and $1 exactas.
In essence I have 9 horses to root for, 5 of them specifically in the win position.
Overlays based on most recent live odds (at the time of International Star’s scratch, Saturday morning): Mr. Z, Upstart, Itsaknockout, Firing Line. Yes, that’s 3 of my top 4.

I might place the top 2 post-time favorites over my top 4 as well.
Keep in touch on twitter at @idealisticstats

2015 Kentucky Derby Pool 4 wager musings

To begin with, here are my picks from each pool of the Derby Future Wager:
Pool 1 is where I chose 5 but ultimately didn’t feel confident enough to make the $2 win bets on:
Texas Red (14-1), Mr.Z (47-1), Imperia (27-1), Lucky Player (99), Ocho Ocho Ocho (29)
Pool 2 where I placed $2 win tickets on:
Texas Red (9)  El Kabeir (39), Imperia (24), Mr. Z (44), Dortmund (10)
Pool 3 I have win tickets of 3 horses, along with exactas to each other and the field (4):
Lord Nelson (39), Texas Red (14), International Star (22).  I had ranked Dortmund (9) and Upstart (15) below these.
Texas Red has since bowed out of the Derby Trail so that’s some $ burned right there. There are still 6 horses I directly have interest in, 4 of which are available in Pool 4 directly  The trick here is to buy with lower odds, enough to allow the reality principle to be in play (does the horse have enough points or earning on the real trail to get in the show?). Using the same mix of variables as with the prior pools, I’ll give you my top 8, in reverse order.    A range of horses scored very closely. I had to use several different head-to-head matchups to rank them all in such a way that made sense.
Ranked 8th: Materiality, who scored with great pedigree and AWD numbers (Afleet Alex sired), a combo no other horse here has. Winner at 9 furlongs (Islamorada Handicap at Gulfstream). 2 for 2 lifetime.  Next race for him will be the Florida Derby on Saturday.
Ranked 7th: Firing Line, who averages a 102 Brisnet if measured strictly by his running style. Winner at 9 furlongs, a 14 length victory and new track record in the Sunland Derby. Pace progressed from maiden debut of 92 to 101. Next: Unsure.
Ranked 6th: Bold Conquest. Sired by Curlin. 2nd in the Iriquois at Churchill with an 89 Brisnet. The 89 score represents good pace progression through his 2YO season.  Next:
I will consider my top 3 of 5 for any wagers, tho I will ignore a horse if he’s already been wagered on and I cannot get a better deal than previous pools.  In those cases I’ll use the 4th or 5th pick.  The field is always in play.

5th: UPSTART again is on the outside looking in.  Grade 2 victories in the Fountain of Youth and the Holy Bull, plus the ungraded Funny Cide.  Top pace numbers currently using his run style (2nd call numbers are around 103). Has one of the better dosage profiles. Sire is Flatter, out of AP Indy. Next race: 3/28, Florida Derby.
4th: MR Z again factors here. Another good dosage profile (AP Indy and Storm Cat his grandsires). In the mix thanks to a run over CD, a slow 81 in his maiden debut.  2nd best pace progress at 2YO of the field, peaking at 100. Next race: 3/28 LA Derby

3rd: DORTMUND graduates to favored status.  Arguably the top undefeated horse on the continent.  Winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity, the Robert B Lewis and the San Felipe.   Best Brisnet at Churchill, a 98 in an optional claimer worth 75k. Very good pace form, as he’s made 2 triple-digit small tops at age 3.  Next race: Santa Anita Derby,  4/4.
2nd: DAREDEVIL also shines here, with alternate good and decent efforts pace-wise. Winner of the Champagne Stakes.  2nd call numbers average a 102 score. Great dosage numbers (More Than Ready sire out of Southern Halo). A 106 Brisnet to begin his 3YO campaign is a small new top, and it’s a good time to have one.  Next: Wood Memorial on 4/4
1st: INTERNATIONAL STAR. Grade 2 winner of the Risen Star. Raced just about everywhere plus Canada. Brisnet of 89 at Churchill’s KY Jockey Club Gold Cup.Good 2YO progression leading up to that race.  Small tops up to 97 make him rather attractive. Next race: LA Derby, 3/28.
Here’s how I have to look at this: Should International Star threaten to be worse than, say, 27-1, I’ll place more bets his way.  Ditto with Dortmund at 15-1. If I do have to slip down to 4th to get Mr. Z, I have to see him worse than 49-1, which is certainly possible. If not, then I must  use Upstart.
Here’s the accompanying spreadsheet
I won’t be around to monitor the action live except for Saturday evening and all of Sunday.  Updates will come at @idealisticstats

Due to the weekend schedule being so soon, I’m posting my picks for 6 races overnight, 4 at Gulfstream, 2 at Fair Grounds.

Kentucky Derby 2015 Future Wager Pool 2 selections/analysis

I didn’t get to wager in the first pool, owing to my misjudgement of time zones. I had moved to Tacoma WA in October. There are days I still have to adjust for east coast timing.  This weekend is certainly one of those days.
Pool 2 of the 2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager is already upon us as of this typing. Much of the work involved with selections took place the night before.  I added and subtracted some variables but the accompanying spreadsheet tells just what I used.KDFW2015POOL2

DOSAGE: I compared the chef-de-race numbers to the average winning standard by all horses at Churchill Downs running in 2014.  The top 7 closest in differential to the standard get honors. In this category I counted just the standard 23 selections.

AWD: Average Winning Distance of sire/dam. I measure using the combined score of these, breaking ties with the higher individual score from either.
CLASS: Highest class that the horse has won in.
CD BRISNET: Fastest Brisnet speed at CD, breaking ties for horses with wins over the surface.
RUNSTYLE SPEED involves taking a progressive binomial mean of the last 3 races, choosing the point of call in a race most relevant to the horse’s run style. This style is already listed in Brisnet past performances.
2014 PROGRESS refers to a loosely translated system as explained in Dave Litfin’s Expert Handicapping: 2YOs that run before Labor Day ,then run that Labor Day weekend and improve in pace before the end of the year.
LONG DISTANCE: Long distance the horse won in career.
I gave honors to top 7 in each categories. Then I added 4 more variables, meant to be counted as 1 whole score, depending on who was in top 7 within getting the most subcategory mentions.    The references to exploding, forging, bounce and bounce back reflect the horse’s change in overall pace as mentioned by Brisnet as well as Litfin’s book.
So with 8 general areas to score in, my task was to pick 5 horses I would bet outright to win, $2 each. No exactas.
Before I give you my top 5 and snubs, I want to backtrack a bit to the Enlighted Derby Trail.  Based on my last post which updated you on my top 20, I counted 4 that were snubbed altogether: Blue Dancer, Private Prospect, Desert Sun and Saratoga Healer.  There were that did get in the All Others section: Bayerd, Souper Colossal, and Conquest Tycoon.
Comparing the All Others separately against the 23, I did find 2 horses that certainly deserved a better fate:
Cinco Charlie: Looking from the EDT perspective, he never ran in any relatively important races for my trail despite impressive pace stats. 8 of 9 in the money, 6 wins, 94 Brisnet win at CD in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor last June. He surpassed that lifetime best with a 102 in December in the 50k Sugar Bowl at Fair Grounds.  AWD numbers and long distance totals don’t measure up right now but that hopefully should change for the better.
Keen Ice is 5-1-0-1, hasn’t improved beyond maiden status but ran somewhat competitively otherwise.  Another horse who didn’t race on  my EDT path.  He’s grown from 73 in his debut to a 92 last out in the Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream.  ADWs are better than average, and he has his lone win at CD.  His pace respective of his deep closing style has to be respected.Now we’ll look at my top 5, the 5 I’ll place my first future wagers on for the 2015 campaign:DORTMUND won a tiebreak process for the #5 spot.  Burst onto my EDT spotlight, winning the Los Alamitos Futurity last month, now 3-3 lifetime. Further the 98 Brisnet win in November plus the 8.5 furlong win last time out, and a paired-up score of 97 makes him dangerous.  250 points on the EDT trail. Runs in today’s Robert B Lewis Stakes.  Currently 20-1

MR. Z has strong pedigree (Malibu Moon-Stormy Bear, out of Storm Cat). 3rd in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and 2nd 4 other Graded events.  Set lifetime best yet, losing by a nose in the Delta Downs Jackpot with a 100.  That effort is a great example of 2YO progression.  150 points on my EDT trail. Sure, slow winning score at CD but at least he has a win there. Next start is the Southwest Stakes on 2/16. Currently 55-1.

IMPERIA’s claim to fame is a win in the Grade 3 Pilgrim at Belmont. She would finish 10th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Then in his dirt debut, she finished 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club at CD. She’s been on layoff since that 11/29 race. Scoring a 96 Brisnet late in the year and at CD makes him an instant contender. One of the better pedigrees as well (Medaglia d’Oro-Cocoa Beach, by Doneraile Court, himself a son of Seattle Slew, winning some Graded events). Also, the Pilgrim race was at 8.5 furlongs.  Has 100 EDT points for the KJC effort.  Next start will be the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Maybe he’ll follow up in the Louisiana Derby after that, which is an EDT race. Currently 43-1
EL KABEIR, winner of the KYJC, already had built his reputation in the NY circuit, and would follow up with a win in the Jerome at Aqueduct’s inner dirt track. That effort was 101, slightly better than his maiden win of 100 at Saratoga.  This sprinter is getting the best speed figures of anyone in the KDFW group when adhering to his run-style. Also he’s a big contender in this year’s Enlightened Derby Trail series, even if he did score most in the Heartland division.  He runs in today’s Withers Stakes, so his success is vital to my picking him. Currently 37-1. Thinking he’ll be at much better odds with a win todayTEXAS RED is my top pick out of the wager. This is no real surprise, as he won the top 2YO race of all (and the key race of this wager), the BC Juvenile at the Grade 1 level, and with a 106 Brisnet. This would be paired with a 98 Brisnet, running 2nd to Lord Nelson in the 7-furlong San Vincente Deep closer who potentially is faster than El Kabeir given the proper trip. Very good breeding, too (Afleet Alex/Ramatuelle, by Jeune Homme). Looks like he may also be in the Risen Star, and then the Santa Anita Derby.  Currently the top choice of 5-1 among those not picking the field wager of 6/5.  No I’m not picking the field either.
So those are my 5. If one of those running today has a real bad outing, or worse, I might consider one of the following horses to replace, not yet in a particular order: American Pharoah, Carpe Diem, Competitive Edge, Daredevil, International Star, Lord Nelson, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Upstart. If matters come to that result, I’ll alert you.  Meanwhile, follow my antics on the Twitter at @idealisticstats

Enlightened Derby Trail update: Los Alamitos Futurity

Today, the Enlightened Derby Trail runs through Los Alamitos in the OC. The LA Futurity It’s the 3rd of 5 races in Cali on the list, and the last of the 2YO events on either Trail.
Here’s my top 3:
MR Z has competed at the Graded level in last 6 races, ever since a successful maiden debut, but has not won. Came closest last time in the Delta Downs Jackpot at today’s distance of 8.5 furlongs, losing by a pose to Ocho Ocho Ocho.  The 100 Brisnet score from that race is a new top, but this sprinter easily could bounce from there. Despite this, he’s the speed of the field, and one of two coming out of a very good trip.  Top pedigree of the field (Malibu Moon/Stormy Bear, by Storm Cat).
NO PROBLEM won the Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes last out, the only one of these 5 horses to win a Graded stakes event. The win was at 8-1,which reflects on a small sample of races combined by jockey/trainer combo Espinoza/McCarthy. Paired up Brisnet scores of 88 and 86 for his last 2 races. Decent works, tho nearly a bullet last time.
DORTMUND convincingly won his first 2 race, and is in his 2nd route race as well as Graded event. The Martin Garcia/Bob Baffert connection here is winning at a 28% clip. Proved to handle moving up in class and distance with win last out, along with shipping from his home state. Post position in the middle should help his cause.
Coming in, Mr. Z has the only points on the trail, with 100.  Point distribution –to the top 4 of this 5-horse field: 250-100-50-25.

After the race, I’ll provide a new set of mythical Derby and Oaks fields.

Meanwhile, I sorely owe you some bowl predictions. I’m still adjusting to Coast time for sake of all the events that take place eastward.

2015 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 picks

Can I really do it? Can I make $ on this future wager thing every year? For 4 years straight I have done just that.  I am confident that this trend will continue.
Firstly, here the horses who are part of the wager who were not part of my list of 23 from the previous post:
Blofeld
Classy Class
Dortmund
Eagle
El Kabeir
Frosted
Imperia
Lord Nelson
Lucky Player
Ostrolenka
Punctuate
The Great War
Unblunted
Of these, 3 horses had any of my Enlightened Derby Trail points, El Kabeir and The Great War with 25, and Lucky Player with 50.
So that means just 10 of my 23 made the official list.  Should I be surprised? Not at all, for my system is definitely one that wants to include more minor tracks and more ungraded stakes races, and level the playing field geographically.  I have a better system than the established; hopefully it will produce a winner.

Here, tho, I am assessing this field for next year’s run for all those roses.Here are the variables that I am working with:
Dosage (chef-de-race numbers)
Class
Churchill Downs experience
Best combined average winning distance from pedigree

best current pace based on run style
best pace score based on pace progression of those with races since Labor Day
Longest distance win
As with last year’s Pool 1, the top 7 in each category are ranked. Those with the most ranks in each category get considered. I rank my overall my top 5 from there.
Before introducing the top 5, something worth noting here: Every horse except one has raced in Cali or NY. There’s just one horse who raced in the South who got in. 3 horses have run in 3 geographic divisions (Carpe Diem, Lucky Player, Mr. Z) 18 are bred in Kentucky.  2 horses have only raced near where they were bred: Eagle, in the bluegrass section, and Ostrolenka in NY.  I was intrigued by the appearance of The Great War, invading from the UK and made his American debut in the Breeders Cup series.

Now for the top 5, Letterman style:
#5: OCHO OCHO OCHO: winner of the Juvenile Turf Sprint Stakes at Santa Anita (ironically, taken off the turf), and last week’s Grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot at 8.5 furlongs. One of the better combined AWD numbers of 16.7. Pedigree: 2007 KY Derby winner Street Sense, Winner, by Horse Chestnut, winner of the 1999 South African Triple Crown.  I’ve ranked him as fastest of the 23 horses here, with a stalking style. His 2nd call numbers in his last 2 races are 104 and 108. 3-for-3 lifetime.

#4: LUCKY PLAYER won the Grade 3 Iroquois and also his maiden debut at Churchill.  2nd in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Million. One of the better dosage profiles of the group. Lookin At Lucky won the Preakness, and maternal grandsire is the world-class Storm Cat. Having a 90 Brisnet win over Churchill, best of this field at the track gives him an advantage, along with the win at 8.5 furlongs. Rather slow pace compared to others, despite positive pace progress. Considering his wins at Churchill and the minor track appearance, I’d love to see him win it all next year.
#3 IMPERIA won the Grade 3 Pilgrim at Belmont. Good dosage profile and AWD numbers. Sire Medaglia d’Oro was a multiple stakes winner, 2nd in the  Belmont. Dam Cocoa Beach was a stakes winner in 3 continents. Her sire, Doneraile Court was on the Derby Trail but never placed in the Triple Crown races. Ranked well in terms of pace progress, with a 77 in his maiden debut, then peaked to a 95 in the Pilgrim. Only caveat is that he’s only raced on turf, so I can’t factor him for distance (my variable only takes into account dirt races).
#2 MR. Z has a leading dosage profile: Malibu Moon is a perennial top sire, and we all know about his maternal grandsire Storm Cat.  Won maiden debut at Churchill with an 81 Brisnet. Consistently fast with his stalking style. Another example of good pace progression. His best race before Labor Day was a 94 in the Saratoga Special. He improved last time out with a 100 in the Delta Downs Jackpot.  The lone win in 7 starts at the maiden level is the one big concern but otherwise looks like he’ll blossom nicely at 3.
#1 TEXAS RED is my top pick of the 23. Winner of the Breeders Cup Juvenile at 8.5 furlongs, scoring a 101 Brisnet.  Sire is Afleet Alex, 3rd in the KY Derby.  Grandsire is Jeune Homme, who won stakes races in the US and France. This closer has one of the faster paces of the group. Improved in pace in each of his lifetime efforts following his maiden debut, ranging from 76 to 101. Is he just winding up for a monster 2015?
Next post will come overnight on Saturday as I preview the next Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trail races, both taking place under those famous twin spires.