I foresee a late KO by Geale for him to become the new champion.
Idealistic Stats is an extension of my sports/stats/analysis blog at http://www.idealisticstats.wordpress.com
On this podcast, usually delivered early Thursday mornings, I focus on major sports events for the week, and air some appropriate music from top indie and emerging recording artists.
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show link: http://www.podcastgarden.com/episode/idealistic-stats-060415_49569
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Topics on this program covered:
PGA’s US Open at Chambers Bay
Boxing: Miguel Cotto vs Daniel Geale
Belmont Park major stakes races for Saturday
Music heard on this edition:
Opening: Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
David Uosikkinen’s In The Pocket “Change Reaction” – Essential Songs Of Philadelphia: Sessions CD http://www.songsinthepocket.org
Revel 9 “San Jose” – The Razorblade Diaries EP http://www.revel9.com
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Thanks for listening!
Huge boxing matchup tonight, this among other big sporting events during the day (French Open, Belmont Stakes). Here in this post I’m focusing on just the boxing: Sergio Gabriel Martinez vs Miguel Cotto, 12 rounds, middleweights, for Martinez’s WBC title.
Martinez rides a 7 fight streak. His last loss was his first fight against Paul Williams in 2009. 51-2-2, 28 KO wins, 1 KO loss. Only 7 of his 12-round fights have gone to decision. In his 10 KO wins at 12 rounds, 4 each have come early or late in fights, 2 in the middle rounds. Last KO win was vs Serhiy Dzinziruk in 2011. The green belt is up for grabs after Martinez had made one successful defense and after Marco Antonio Rubio won the interim title 2 months ago. He enters as The Ring magazine’s #7 pound for pound fighter, and their recognized champion of the class.
Cotto: 38-4-0, 31 KO wins and 2 KO losses. is ranked by Boxrec.com as the best light middleweight out of Puerto Rico, and #4 in the world. (Ring magazine says #3). First MSG arena appearance. Mixed record as of late, going 6-4 in his last 10. Indeed, that accounts for all 4 lifetime losses. He’s fighting the most seasoned opponent for him since Pacquiao in 2009. This is his first shot at the green belt, and his 9th appearance at MSG. In 17 wins by KO in 12-round fights, 3 have come early, 8 in the middle, 6 late.
Now we look at the cycles:
Not a good look for ‘Maravilla’ as he finds this to be a brief triple low. Will be a challenging fight for him, likely overemotional, maybe sullen at times. His power is below average, not much feeling put into the punches, and they won’t connect nearly as often as they should. His drive is experiencing a somewhat low but extended valley, not a peak.
Not so great cycles either but not a triple low either. Weakening physical scale, but he’s not easily brought down, showing a willingness to contest 12 rounds, and he’s gaining some mental strength alongsides. Overall not a great outlook. Might have to rely on his mental game to compete, but his pure athletic ability and focus are at quite a low.
Tough fight to pick, neither fighter with a huge advantage. I’m siding with the bias against the low cycles and will give this one to Cotto, by unanimous decision but it will be scored rather close.
WBA light middleweight title fight!
Here are Miguel Cotto’s cycles first (10/29/80)
Not pretty. Very weak in punching power, will be jumpy and fight out of desperation at times. If he ever was to give up during a fight, this would be the time.
Now for Austin Trout (9/18/85), champion:
Considerably better cycles, as all 3 are pointing up. He is still within a ‘critical’ physical period, suggesting he’s got a lot of power but he won’t really embody it, not really knowing his own strength well. But he will make good decisions and follow through. Overall he’s the stronger of the two.
Late round TKO for Trout.