We’ll look at the Fair Grounds Oaks first, a Grade 2 event for top 3YO fillies, going 8.5 furlongs. Top 3:
Street Fancy won the Starlet Stakes 2 races back, was 3rd in the Desi Arnaz prior to that. Won the Starlet first off layoff. Took a big step back in the Las Virgiennes last time out, bouncing to 60 from lifetime best 94. I’m willing to play the bounceback, as she’s waiting longest to stretch out. Prior stretchout and shipping win as well.
Adore won a 62k optional claimer last time, prior to that her maiden-breaker at the 68k level, both were routes. Top AWD numbers of the field (Big Brown/Cozhesaidso, out of Empire Maker). Small new top in pace form last time out with an 88. Lone early closer of the field.
Suggested odds: Adore 6-1; Dream Dance 44-1; Street Fancy 7-2; Land Over Sea 10-1; Northwest Tale 2-1; Stageplay 10-1; Midnight Of Oconee and Venus Valentine 22-1. Overlay: Street Fancy, Northwest Tale.
Mo Tom is the worthy favorite here. Winner of the LeComte and the Street Sense, 3rd in the Risen Star and the KY Jockey Club. Alternating wins and 3rd through 6 lifetime races. Small new top set with 95 Brisnet last out toughing out some trouble late in the Risen Star, ahead of a pair of 94s. Easily the true speed of the field tho will certainly require a solid early pace and subsequent collapse of same. 4th race since reclaim by Thomas Amoss. Progressive growth in pace from first race to present.
Gun Runner likewise a logical 2nd favorite. 3 wins of 4, including the Risen Star last time out. That race, a 97 Brisnet score for him, is best performance here of this field, along with proof positive of pace form. Also progressive pace in each of his races. 4 works here, 2 fast ones, one a bullet. Increased 2nd call speed in the Risen Star first after layoff.
Battery is my price play. 4th in his maiden debut, winning next at the 50k level, 2nd in a 75k optional claimer, winner of similar level after with strong 95 Brisnet at 9 furlongs. 95 is best for the distance of the field.