Enlightened Trails update: Lone Star @ Texas Prairie

Lone Star Park @Texas Prairie is the site for the initial Enlightened Derby Trail race of this campaign, twinned with the 2nd Oaks Trail race earlier on the card.

The Texas Futurity for fillies is 5 furlongs, with a 100k purse. My top 3 here are Silver In The City, then overlays Rockin’ Royalty and Western Maid. I also like first-time starter Golden Cat Tate as an overlay.

Silver In The City is consistent with 3 runs in the 70s, peaking at 72 on 6/10. Gained half-length on the leader at the 2nd call.
Rockin’ Royalty enters with good track bias: 40% of early-presser types running this distance have won (12 wins in 30). 16% of the winners have come from posts 4-7. Wears blinkers for the first time, and gets favorable jockey switch to Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez.
Western Maid also peaked 2 races back, running a 70 on 6/10, paired with 68 last out. Was close in contention all throughout her last race, a 21k statebred filly maiden event, and briefly led in the stretch.
Golden Cat Tate I will give benefit of the doubt as she does come in with great works.

 

2 races later, the colts take their turn in the similarly named Texas Futurity. It is open to colts and geldings for a 100k, going 5 furlongs.
My top 3 here are 2nd favored Almeria, Swift Shock, and longshot/overlay My Golden Tate. Other overlays: Solar Effect, Ramblin Fever, Toledo Pache
My Golden Tate just after claim, had runs in the 60s, breaking maiden with 65 lat out. Prior to that, ran a 69 in an open maiden race. Looked good in his progression vs leader last time.
Solar Effect broke maiden in 2nd start with gain from 64 to 72.
Ramblin Fever showed some gain vs leader in his 4th place debut start on 6/23
Toledo Pache with small new top to 72 in 3rd lifetime start, first time at 5 furlongs and on muddy track. I give respect to the pattern here.

today’s stakes races analyses

This post focuses on today’s graded stakes races.

TEXAS MILE STAKES at Lone Star:

Endorsement gets the edge for best pedigree for Lone Star winners. Three horses have won at 9 furlongs; these are Endorsement, Fifteen Love and Moonshine Mullin. Endorsement also with class edge, winner of the 2010 Sunland Derby.No other horse in this field with Graded wins
Lydia’s Last Step has best winning Brisnet number, from last year’s Lone Star Park Handicap. Track bias favors the majority of the field, leaning to both sprinters (Lydia’s Last Step, Coyote Legend) and post positions 4 through 7 (Get In Da House, Oak Motte, Moonshine Mullin, Hurricane Ike). No horse with a real form edge here. Bonus: Oak Motte’s jockey Lyndie Wade has combined with trainer Danny Pish for ROI of +3.64 based on 5 races (2 wins, 3 in the money). Endorsement and Moonshine Mullin could bounce from their speed numbers, the former especially, as he forged a new career best. Hurricane Ike and Coyote Legend both wired their respective fields before finishing 2nd.
Get In Da House has the fastest pace numbers of this field, being a closer type.
Selections are: Get In Da House, Endorsement, Lydia’s Last Step. Lot of value to work with here.
SAN FRANCISCO MILE at Golden Gate Fields: Pedigree edge goes to Dunmore East (Honour And Glory-Risky Seas). Worth repeating has stamina for days…won a 12 furlong race 2 races back, actually a year back, then raced 5th in a mile race a month ago. Classiest horse is Geranimo, with wins in the G2 Oak Tree Mile and G2 Citation. Hudson Landing has 3 wins in 4 lifetime races on the GG turf course. Best pace numbers belong to Sanger Silver, running at the lead or stalking close to it in his last 3. Track bias greatly favors pure sprinter…edge goes to 4 horses of this style: Worth Repeating, Positive Response, Dunmore East, Live Sundays. Nobody terribly impressed me with clusters of form that suggested a real edge. Jeranimo, tho, does come out of a Grade 1 race, and his trainer Michael Pender has a strong ROI in Graded races: in 23 races over the last 2 years, he has 7 wins, with 13 total in the money. ROI: +5.40. Selections: In a very competitive race, I like Sanger Silver, Hudson Landing, Jeranimo, with Worth Repeating 4th.

WESTCHESTER STAKES at Belmont
Already down to a 4-horse competition with 3 scratches.

Boys At Tosconova has the lone lifetime Grade 1 victory in this field. Fastest winning Brisnet # at Belmont, a 110 in a maiden race in 2010. Goombada Guska, alongwith To Honor And Serve, both won at 9 furlongs, longest distance race won of this group. Goombada Guska in best form of these: Slightly surpassed both his 3YO and 4YO best numbers in his last race, finishing 3rd in a 75k race at Aqueduct. Was off layoff then and off layoff here as well. To Honor And Serve has the fastest pace numbers here, an early-pressing type, with consistent runs in Graded company. Bold Deed has no redeeming factor that endears me to him for this race. Selections in no particular order: Goombada Guska (longshot), To Honor & Serve, Boys At Tosconova.

DERBY TRIAL at Churchill

I won’t be around to check out the race, but here goes:
Top pedigree (closest chef-de-race numbers for CD winners) is Saint of Saints (Pleasantly Perfect-Stylish Manner). Longest winning distance run is from Stealcase, 8.5 furlongs, breaking his maiden in his 3YO debut 3 races back. Motor City has consistent Graded stakes runs, including a G3 win in the Iriquois last year. Hierro is 1-for-1 at Churchill, scoring a 94 Brisnet, best of these. Best pace number belongs to dead closer The Black, who ran first or second in last 3 races, all in Cali. Selections: The Black-Hierro-Motor City. Morning-line suggests The Black and Motor City as longshots but with 2 early scratches, and the prior interest in Motor City being on the Triple Crown trail, value may drop on these. Still could be a good betting race. Bonus: Paynter drops from the Grade 1 to this Grade 3 race, having ran 4th in the Santa Anita Derby. The Black and Nonios are still on the influence of career best pace races.
With the selections, unless they are all chalk, I like to play exactas with each combo of my top 3, and win bets for any horses going off at worse than 5-1.
Next post will come once the Kentucky Oaks field is finalized as well as the Friday major stakes action at Churchill.