This week’s TVG Super 8 contest (5+ wins out of 8, and you cash) covers various races at Santa Anita and Gulfstream. Here’s how I see them:
Santa Anita race 2: 3YO maidens at the 54k level, 7 furlongs, dirt. Top 3 are all faves: Once On Whiskey, Paddock Pick and Facts Matter. Totally a passable race. No overlays to be found. Odds movement is proportional to the morning-line.
Santa Anita race 3: Optional-claim race 40k, non-winners of 2, fillies/mares 4YO+ running 6 furlongs on dirt. Top 3: Powder, Bad Ju Ju, Time For Ebby. No overlays here either. Odds, however suggest that Powder will be largely ignored and fall into overlay status. I think she’s an easy favorite, so I’d play her at 5-1 or worse. Stretch out to 6 furlongs is no problem here. She’s also been on layoff for about a month, and she’s won previously on layoff. Track bias is kind to pure sprinters, at a 43% over 80 races during the meet. Posts 4-7 are winning 16% too. Last out run was a small improvement at 1st call, seizing the lead for a while at 2nd call.
Gulfstream Park race 9 is a 5 furlong turf race for 4YOs+, optional claimers at 25k, non-winners of 2. Top 3 are Imprimis, Lost for Words and Our Independence. Overlays are Lost for Words and One Lucky Step. No real impact will be felt by any changes in odds.
Lost for Words is the only horse in the field with a recent small new top, even if he is a slight bounce risk. Was 86 speed last out vs 16k maidens here and at this level of claim, nearly wiring the field. Has blazing speed down the backstretch. 7-2-1-1 at GP lifetime. Gets 5-lb jockey allowance.
One Lucky Step also a bounce risk, moving from 75 to year’s best of 83. Very nice run last time out…3rd consecutive run directly off layoff, increasing at 2nd call point, and one place and 1 length on leader at that point.
Gulfstream Park race 10: Maiden race, 3YOs, 6 furlongs, 55k. Top 3 are Gran Togoshi, Elusive Hero, Breaking The Rules. Gran Togoshi the live overlay here. Stretches .5 furlong from his debut, a 71 last month here at similar class, tho a bit of a tough trip. He did improve a bit in pace and order by the 2nd call there. Breaking the Rules as a first time starter l like for the good pedigree (War Front/Protesting out of AP Indy). Very good work tab in prep…most works at GP, and a few bullets.
Gulfstream Park race 11: 8.5 furlongs on the turf course, for 4YOs+, 62.5k optional claimers. Top 3 are overlay Bronson, then favorites Conquest Sandman and Deeply Undervalued.
Bronson has superbly consistent numbers, running 84 to 88 in 8 straight. Blinkers off for this race, first time in 7 races. Prior shipping wins and similar cutback win early in career. 6 works here in prep, 4 of them rather fast.
Odds prediction: Look for Conquest Sandman to take favorite status here. Rocketry should drop from public favorite here. JR’s Holiday should take more $, considering he’s 2 removed from his lifetime best, and has a great work tab himself. The horse that will be largely ignored is Keep Quiet. I don’t believe he will drop far enough to be an overlay. I like the breeding (Elusive City/Luminosity, out of Sillery). Also he’s been off since November and is 2 races removed from a Grade 3 win.
Santa Anita race 6: 30k maiden fillies event, 3YOs, 21k purse, 6 furlongs. Top 3 here are favored Tengs Rhythm and Lucky Lula, then Stylist. Overlay is Quizlet.
Stylist impresses for me as a first time starter…a bunch of runs here, the majority of them were competitively fast.
Odds change: Little to no impact on the morning-line. I’d use Stylist with favorites here.
Gulfstream Park race 13: 7.5 furlongs on turf for maiden 3YOs, 20k level. Top 3 are all overlays: Particularly, Calypso Deep and Time For War.
Odds should not move much at all compared to morning-line.
Particularly 2 races back improved on his 1st race following layoff, suggesting he’s back in form now. Peaked at 74 first after claim at 5 furlongs, dropping to 66 last time tho increased in lengths vs leader by 2nd call for the first time. On a good uptick in pace. Adds blinkers for the first time.
Calypso Deep is waiting about a month to stretch from 6 furlongs. Gained 2 lengths on leader at 2nd call last time out.
Time For War is a first time starter with a few good fast works to prepare.
Santa Anita race 8 is for 3YO maiden fillies, running 6 furlongs, 30k claiming level. Top 3 are longshot overlay Calimonco Action, Ride Lady Ride and Dee Way To Go. Heather’s Wish also an overlay here.
Calimonco Action I suppose is quite the risk at 30-1. I happen to like the fact that she carries 5 lbs at 117, and she’s waited a month to stretch out half a furlong. Gained a length on leader last time out also. Ride Lady Ride set new top of 70 last time out vs 54k maiden fillies in debut on turf. Adds blinkers here and is up for a tag for the first time. Heather’s Wish as a first time starter has a number of fast local works.
I would not expect the odds to change all that much compared to morning-line.