Breeders Cup 2013 day 1 analysis

To begin with, I am NOT wagering a dime. I don’t really have a dime to my name at this moment. I wish I did, so I could do some practical things like pay bills and such. Getting personal a bit, I’m struggling to make ends meet and have zero dispensary income for gambling.

Nevertheless I attempt to handicap this year’s 2-day Breeders Cup, held this year at Santa Anita Race Track. This post focuses on the Friday races. Overnight, I will publish the Saturday findings.
Outside of these picks I’m involved in two different handicap challenges: Derby Wars features the first 5 races of the Santa Anita card, this the pre-meet races, all good races themselves. I am not delivering picks here, but I will post what I have at the tourney page (I’m cblue456):  I have to be in the top 5 of 45 to earn points.

Further aside I’ve heavily involved in another free challenge, this at Remington Park. 123racing’s series of challenges are fun and you can win in several ways. I believe prizes are for the top 10 in wins and in virtual $ won. I’m cblue456 there and I have publicly given picks in the tourney’s ‘stables’ areas. I’m pretty excited as I am top 10 in $ won there. 3 races tonight, scheduled to run after the BC’s. 

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BC MARATHON: 3-10-4-5: Commander is running 3rd race under reclaim by Dennis Terry. Since the reclaim, he was a competitive 2nd in a 50k stake, and won the Grade 3 Premier, both at Hastings. More importantly, I feel he’s ready to win today. Track bias is playing favorably to inside posts during routes. In fact, his last 3 wins have come from a rail post. He, and Indian Jones proved to have had the best trips last out from this field. Worldly also carries value here. Recovered in form after a 4 month layoff, running relatively solid Brisnet numbers around 100 in each. The 102 he scored last in the Homecoming Classic at Churchill was just past his lifetime best of 100. This may suggest a further increase here. It is, tho, part of a triple high, and probably a bounce downward for this early-stalking horse. Nevertheless he is rated as the fastest horse here. Ever Rider is slightly favored in morning-line. The great unknown matter here is that he’s raced exclusively at Argentina and he makes his North American debut here. As an Argentinian bred horse, he does have some interesting average winning distance numbers: 10.7 from sire line Candy Stripes, having Blushing Groom and Nasrullah in direct male line, and 6.8 by Il Corsaro as the dam-sire, a son of Northern Dancer. Ever Rider won a Grade 2 race last time out, plus 6 works right at Santa Anita, the 2nd last work a bullet. Suns Out Guns Out is a longshot that should get consideration. Was a winner for today’s jockey, Julien Leparoux, who has had just the one race with trainer Dale Romans in the last 60 days. The question is whether lightning can strike twice again here. This horse also in recovery form, running in the mid 90s for pace. Those races since a 6 week layoff were a triple high spike in pace numbers, so a bounce is possible. 4 works since last race, 2 at Santa Anita, 2nd last very fast at 6 furlongs, 3rd last a bullet work at Churchill.
Based on morning line numbers, we could see some good betting across the board, as it were, and the Argentinian as favorite is probably not going to win this. Good betting race.

BC JUVENILE TURF: 7-11-10-5: I actually have 3 longshots out to destroy the chances of the morning-line fave. Aotearoa (how does Trevor Denman pronounce this? Ay-tee-uh-row-a) won the ungraded Zuma Beach last time out on this track, 3rd lifetime effort, with an 89 Brisnet. This is the best pace number of those who have won at the track and among routers. Also has Corey Nakatani aboard, with Leonard Powell training, combining to have best win % of the field. Their only combo together in the last 60 days was with this horse (yes, small sample, I know). The 89 was the best of Aotearoa’s 3 lifetime races, slight possible bounce here. A good trip from there should lead to a good trip here. Poker Player is the lone closer. Broke maiden last time in winning the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland. Paired up Brisnet number of 85, could bounce from here. I rate him as the fastest of the field, should he get the proper trip to make a stretch run. Ontology I don’t give much weight to here, but he has worked out well: 3 works at Santa Anita, 2 of them competitively fast. Bobby’s Kitten is out of two convincing wins, one a 95k maiden race, and the Grade 3 Pilgrim. He has the best turf numbers of the field, and also at risk from bouncing off a sharp gain pace (ran a 97 in the Pilgrim).
Might be good to use Bobby’s Kitten with these 3 longshots, those 3 for wins each if odds form holds. Another good betting race.

BC DIRT MILE: 12-6-8-7. No sign of morning-line fave Verrazano in the top 4. Goldencents, 2nd favorite, gets the nod from me. The Santa Anita Derby winner comes out of a 107 Brisnet at this same track, winning another Grade 1 race. No other horse has such a home course advantage from this field. There is the chance he could bounce down tho. Was on 2 month layoff, then ran 3 sprints, and now returns again to routes.  Broadway Empire is off of two Grade 3 wins, and a winner of 4 of 6 lifetime. Early-stalking style is fastest of the field. Seems to like the middle post. Convincing win last time makes him a contender here. Holy Lute is in the money for all 4 lifetime races. Mike Smith aboard for trainer James Cassidy. They have won all 3 races as combo in last 60 days, for a 6.07 ROI. Best win % combo of the field too, buoyed by Smith’s 37% win rate in 30 races at the meet. Holy Lute forged lifetime best of 101 last time, running 3rd in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby, might bounce from this.Alpha, winner of last year’s Travers (OK, dead heat) and this year’s Woodward, was last of 12 in last year’s BC Classic held here last year. The pedigree is undeniable (Bernardini-Munnaya, out of Nijinsky II). He ran his lifetime best in the Woodward, then put in an off race last time in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, so a bounce back may be in order. At the same time, the Woodward was just a few ticks past his 3YO best in the Travers, so it strengthens the case for future progress.
No chalk to be found in this race.

BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: 4-3-10-11: More good value to be had here. Kitten Kaboodle broke maiden in style, winning the Grade 3 Jessamin at Keeneland last time. She equaled her lifetime best of 87 and could bounce down from that here. Gets an inside post again here and should relish this,especially after the big win. Colonel Joan was 3rd in the Surfer Girl held 3 weeks ago here, still seeking first win. Paired up scores in the 80’s from last 2 races, might bounce. She’s a straight closer, and needs perfect trip to succeed. If she does, she will be fastest of all. Clenor began career in Ireland, now at home on the West Coast, and 4th US start, 2nd at Santa Anita. Hasn’t disappointed yet, winning all 3 North American starts including the aforementioned Surfer Girl. The 89 scored here is best performance on this track of this field, as well as best among routers. Also the best jockey/trainer combo in Rafael Bejarano and Doug O’Neill. Also out of a pair of races in the 80’s and could bounce. Ready To Act in 3rd lifetime race. Last time out, lost rider in the Grade 2 Natalma. Entered this race on layoff, as he did in first race, a winning 80k maiden effort. No reason to think she can’t win again off layoff, or at least contend. 5 works since the Natalma, 2nd last a bullet.
Another very good betting race.

BC DISTAFF: 5-3-6-4. Absolutely tough to separate much of the 6-horse field based on trips, post and track bias, categories that I give the largest weight too. Nevertheless, here’s how I see it. Beholder is my best bet of today’s prime races. Ran 1st or 2nd in 10 of his 11 lifetime races (the one miscue came in his first race). Winner of 4 Grade 1 races, all at Santa Anita, including the Zenyatta last time. true horse-for-course, 5 wins in 6 races, and a 110 best Brisnet scored in an allowance race last year. Plus, he has Gary Stevens aboard with Richard Mandella training, strong combo here. 4 works since the Zenyatta, all here, 2 were very strong. Not much to add here, really. Pace form is good, tho might bounce; should do well with the outside post. Close Hatches is 5 of 7 lifetime, winning the Cotillion and the Mother Goose, both at Grade 1, in last 2 races. I’ve rated him fastest of the field with her early pace. Princess Of Sylmar dueled a win over my 4th choice, Royal Delta in the Beldame Invitational last month. 8 of 10 lifetime, also a winner of 4 Grade 1 efforts. Interestingly, the win in the Beldame was a drop in pace to 99, this down from a lifetime best 107 in the Alabama, last of a triple peak of runs. Bounce back to triple digits again is very possible. As for Royal Delta, she has the best pedigree (Empire Maker, Delta Princess, out of AP Indy). Has the best Brisnet number of the field for the distance, at 110. Must consider with these despite the losing stretch duel.
This is the one race I’d avoiding wagering if I were you. All the others show promise of good value.

I’ll post overnight tomorrow with thoughts on the 9 Saturday races.

Preakness Stakes analysis

In the throes of the Triple Crown season, while not engrossed each weekend
evening (Friday through Sunday) in the Emerald Downs handicapping challenge,
I’ve further worked on results and tracked variables for races run at
Pimlico Race Track. My mission is to understand which variables produce more
winners than others.
I have tracked the majority, but not all, of the racing at Old Hilltop since
May 3.  What I’m pointing out are the best performing variables I use for my own handicapping, and will certainly wager accordingly, taking or giving weight
to/from those who register or rank in these:
BEST:
Top Brisnet speed of those who’ve run and won at the prescribed distance or less
Horses who have forged new lifetime top in past 8 weeks (horses 4YO+,12 weeks)
Horses benefiting from track bias based on run-style and post position
Horses who possibly could bounce down in speed next race..horses who have sharp gain between last 2 races, especially those who have forged lifetime best effort in last 2-3 races.
(Small sample: Horses who returning to route races after a few sprints)
Horses with multiple wins in range of post positions.

Now we’ll go horse-for-horse in the Preakness:

Your Kentucky Derby winner ORB has to be considered. After a deserving win in the mud, forging a new lifetime best effort, he may well bounce down from that race. (111 in the Derby, up from 97 in the FL Derby). Has the best average winning distance from sire/dam-sire in the field (Malibu Moon, Unbridled). ROI angle: Jockey Joel Rosario has teamed with trainer Shug McGaughey in 5 races in the last 60 days, winning 2, placing in 3 for an even return of +2.00
GOLDENCENTS is the only other horse defeating Grade 1 fields, 2 races back in the Santa Anita Derby. Fastest pace numbers to his style in the race (last 3 second call numbers are all triple-digits). Only horse with exploding form, as his 106 from the Santa Anita is just better than his prior best at 2, a 101 in his maiden effort. Tossing a 58 in the Kentucky Derby, I say he is primed for a major bounce back.

TITLETOWN FIVE was competitive in the Gazebo but not so in 2 Graded events. Track bias tho is favoring sprinters: 31% of dirt routers in the meet thus far are pure sprinters. He went from a 96 in the LA Derby to an 88 in the Derby Trial. I am considering him also for a bounce back.

DEPARTING forged a lifetime top in the LA Derby two races back with a 102, paired with a 100 in the IL Derby. Both races are ahead of a 96 in the Texas Heritage stakes .I’m suggesting he will bounce down from triple-digits. Multiple wins from a middle post.

MYLUTE had forged lifetime best numbers of 107 in the KY Derby, and 105 in the LA Derby..both were ahead of a 95 score in teh Risen Star. He too will bounce downward.

OXBOW is the other pure sprinter here. Ran a 101 in the Rebel, 90 in the AK Derby, 101 again in the KY Derby. Pattern suggests a downturn today.

WILL TAKE CHARGE could bounce here also. Was a 98 in the KY Derby, a 101 in the Rebel, both numbers ahead of his 80 in the Southwest Stakes. ROI angle: Jockey Mike Smith has won 31% of his route races this year, 59% in the money, return of +2.78. Multiple wins from an outside post.

GOVERNOR CHARLIE shines as the horse with the best workout tab: 5 races, the last 3 at Churchill Downs, 4 were very fast, the last 2 with bullets. Paired up 2 fast races…a 99 in the Sunland Derby, and a 94 to break his maiden. Bounce potential should be high. Both lifetime wins came from an outside post, where he is today.
ITSMYLUCKYDAY has the best dosage profile in the field, based on the average Pimlico winner’s chef-de-race numbers, measured by differential number and then rank. Nothing else suggests a real positive for him.

My top 3:
2-1-3: Goldencents, Orb, Titletown Five. 

Allow me to do a postcript on my handicapping day from Friday and the Oaks win before we go horse-for-horse with the Run for all those Roses:
I had taken about 22 variables and treated them rather equally…variables measuring horses through elements of pace and form, trainre and jockey angles and the track, plus a few specific sabermetrics like Average Winning Distance, chef-de-race and so forth.    What I decided to do was give extra weight to the top 4 or 5 variables that, percentage were doing the best should that variable be active for that race, and likewise a negative for the worst performing stats.
After evaluating all 45 races at Churchill Downs in the meet going into today’s action, here’s which variables are doing the best.

Horse with the best Brisnet winning speed of the field on turf won 6 of 10 races.
Races with at least one forging-type horses (those who scored lifetime best Brisnet in the last 60 days, or within 90 days if 4YO+) saw a winner in that race in 16 of 38 tries.
Horses who have defeated the top level of class in field (Graded, leading stake by $ value otherwise) have won 10 of 32 races.
Races with at least one horse who were a possible bounce-threat (high spiking number or pair/triple of pace numbers in last races) still won a race in 16 of 42 tries.
Races with at least one horse with ‘exploding’ form (3YO best pace number slightly ahead of 2YO best, last 60 days for these 3YOs)
Horses from an advantageous general post position area (multiple race wins in early, middle or outward post positions) won 6 of 20 races.
Negatives:
Horses who had best winning pace number for Churchill Downs won just once in 40 races.
Horses with jockey or trainer with at least a visible ROI angle of +2.00 based on Brisnet past performances won twice in 37 races.
Horses who had the best combined Average Winning Distance from their pedigree have won 6 of 45 races.
Horses under reclaim by trainer won once in 10 races. Horses returning to route from sprint are 0-for-10. Before these stats made manifest I had already touted an 8-9-7 finish.  But with the weights going to different variables, Pure Fun, my third choice, actually received less love. She was the one with the negative track-based angle, and therefore received a slight demerit.   Princess of Sylmar gained because she was present among those with exploding and forging form patterns, along with an advantageous middle post.  It was enough to give her 3rd place consideration.   Princess went in with double-digit odds as did Rose To Gold.  You saw the tweet:

None of the Future Wager bets panned out….nothing from the ‘all others’ from the field, nore Pure Fun or Unlimited Budget.   Also of notice, Princess had the best dosage profile befitting a Churchill winner, having lowest differential of dosage numbers compared to 2012 chef-de-race stats, provided by both http://www.pedigreequery.com and http://www.chef-de-race.com

Now for the big preview of the Derby.  Black Onyx and Fear The Kitten are scratches, so 19 horses go at it starting from post 2. Also please note that I’m factoring in a wet track.   What I plan to do is see how the first 10 races on the card measure up, so I can weigh all variables properly. Top 5 stats get a positive, bottom 5 a negative.

OXBOW, based on the available Brisnet info benefits the most of this field from track bias. Horses on the rail from the autumn meet here in dirt routes have won 13%, better than other post areas.  Combine with this week’s stats, where posts 1-3 are winning at an 18% clip. Further, Oxbow is one of 3 horses who are absolute pure sprinters. But of those 3, only Oxbow is from a better post position than the others. Early type horses won 35% of the time last autumn, and 29% for the spring meet.  Interestingly, this will be his 2nd ever start in an early post. His first one, his maiden effort, saw him being pulled up and vanned off.  Forged lifetime best of 101 finishing 2nd 2 races back in the Rebel. Threw in an 90 afterward in the AK Derby….and I feel he will bounce back.

REVOLUTIONARY has one of the two best ‘off track’ wins of the field, a 103 scored at Aqueduct in a maiden winning effort. WInner of the Louisiana Derby at 9 furlongs.  Shows exploding form, with a 105 effort last time out from that Grade 1 race, though could bounce down because he’s up from a 96 score, winning in the Withers.

GOLDEN SOUL forged lifetime best number of 100 in the LA Derby last time out, up from 95 in the Risen Star, up further still from an 80 in the LeComte. The pair up of new lifetime bests suggest a bounce downward.  One of the future wager ‘field’ horses.

NORMANDY INVASION has the best pace numbers of the field. Last 3 stretch-call numbers for this late-running closer type are 114, 102 and 114.  Shares the Brisnet score from a winning/progressively achieving 2YO campaign, with a 104 number, losing by a nose in the Remsen to Overanalyze.

MYLUTE forged a lifetime best number of 105 in the LA Derby last time, up from a 95 in the Risen Star, and likely will bounce from that. Notably tho, he ralled very strong from 10th at 2nd call, to 2nd in the stretch. Have to give some merit to him for this.  Best workouts of the field: 4 works at Churchill, 2nd from last  was 2nd fastest of 81 horses, going 4 furlongs in 47 seconds.

GIANT FINISH enters the fray as one of the retroactive ‘field’ horses who entered after the future wagers closed up. Has this ROI angle present: Jockey Jose Espinoza has run 16 routes this year, winning 31%, in the money 79%, for return of $2.49 for your average $2.  By the way, not factoring jockey/trainer angles in this race, as a one-week sample is too few to measure. I usually wait for 2 full weeks of a meet to make such measurements. Paired up 93s in the John Battaglia Memorial, and the Spiral Stakes.  Expect bounce down from there.

GOLDENCENTS won the Santa Anita Derby last time out (Grade 1) at 9 furlongs., forging lifetime best of 106, high above his prior effort of 97, so could bounce from that.  Still, it’s just past his 2YO best of 101, scored in his first lifetime race (!). Racing in post #8, and has won twice from a middle post.

OVERANALYZE won the AK Derby last time out at 9 furlongs. Having won the aforementioned Remsen, showed the best promise out of this field at age 2 along with Normandy Invasion. Counting his AK Derby win for an ROI angle, returning $7.40 for $2, he retains jockey Rafael Bejarano. Won 3 times from a middle post.

PALACE MALICE made a good long run in the Blue Grass Stakes last time out, led very briefly in the stretch, fell to 2nd against Java’s War.  He has the top dosage profile based on closest differential compared to CD winners from 2012. (Sire is Curlin, dam-sire Royal Anthem, mutiple graded stakes winner in England and Canada) Seeing that the dosage angle helped give Princess of Sylmar a victory in the Oaks yesterday, can’t throw this colt out completely.

LINES OF BATTLE, given all the racing overseas, holds the most mystery for me, and probably for most bettors. Of course he is in thanks to a win at Dubai at 9.5 furlongs. No other horse has won at a longer distance, but for sake of my handicapping I’m putting him even with those who had won at 9.

ITSMYLUCKYDAY put up a 103 number on a sloppy Calder track winning a stakes race there last year, tying best ‘off-track’ number of the field.  Won the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull with paired Brisnets of 111 and 106, then raced to a 94, being 2nd in the FL Derby. He is primed to bounce back from that number. Along those lines, his run in the FL Derby shows that he can contend for the prescribed 10 furlongs here today. He had gained the lead in the stretch, but was denied victory by 2.75 lengths from Orb. 3 wins from a middle post.

FALLING SKY I see no real positive for in this race…outside of the fact that he ran and won with a modest 92 on a ‘good’ track at 2, has run 91 or 92 last 3 races. Just too slow for this field, and no improvement in form as of late.

VERRAZANO won the Wood Memorial, 9 furlongs, Grade 1.Undefeated in 4 races, 3 of those from middle post. No real current form to suggest any improvement today.

CHARMING KITTEN is one of the Pool 2 field horses. Running with a current pace projection in the low 90s, forging lifetime best of 96 in the Blue Grass, but that was up from an 85 in the Palm Beach, and probably will bounce down.

ORB won the FL Derby, 9 furlongs, Grade 1. Paired up a 97 Brisnet with a 102 prior in the Fountain of Youth, up from a 89 before that, and probably bouncing as well.

WILL TAKE CHARGE won the Rebel last time out, forging a 101 there, way up from an 80 prior to that, and am expecting a bounce. Only horse in the field coming off layoff. Won after layoff earlier in his career, breaking maiden at the time. Twice a winner from an outside post.

FRAC DADDY has the best Brisnet number on this track in the field, a 101 scored in his maiden win. 2nd in the AK Derby with a 92, up from a 77 in the FL Derby, so am expecting a bounce down.

JAVA’S WAR won the Grade 1, 9-furlong Blue Grass, scoring a 96.  Best average winning distance from his pedigree (sire War Pass, dam-sire Rainbow Quest). Exploding form as proven from prior race, with a 97 in the Tampa Bay Derby. That effort was just past his 2YO best of 95 in the Breeders Futurity.  The last 2 races were a step from his 3rd last, that a 6th place effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club, scoring an 87.  Lots to read into here,..could bounce down or otherwise gain in the future.

VYJACK is quick enough to contend but rather slow runs for this early-pace type. 3rd in the Wood Memorial, he gained to 2nd in the stretch, fell back to 3rd losing by a length to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion. Should have enough horsepower to manage 10 furlongs but not sure that his speed will be enough.

Keeping each variable at equal weight, without any influence from the other races on the spring meet, here’s how I’d rank the top 5:   Oxbow, Itsmyluckyday,  Java’s War, Overanalyze, Goldencents.

Factoring in the positive and negative angles from the 45 race sample of Churchill Downs races this meet, here’s how the top 5 now looks, considering an off-track:
Oxbow, Java’s War, Goldencents are very equal, with Itsmyluckyday and Mylute just behind.

Recall that I still have Orb and Overanalyze and ‘field’ hooked up in exactas to each other and win bets from future wager pool 2.

I will update my picks after the 10th race in the hour before the big race itself.
Further, I’ll be wagering only on the stakes races, race 6 through 11, and give selections on the Twitter  @radiocblue

2013 Kentucky Derby future wager pool 1 analysis

Time to look at these series of wagers, where I have picked winners out of the last 2 years. Conventional wisdom suggests to pick one or two middle price horses along with the field. Makes some sense. But I will take my own path, as I often do.
What I’ll present are the series of variables I’ve studied along with my top 10 horses, Letterman-style:
The major arcana of categories:
*class (highest level of race won in)
*pace rating at Churchill Downs (measuring horses who have run on this surface, higher marks to those who have won here)
*overall pace rating (measuring last 3 races to determine pattern. See my prior post about the Bill James “Favorite Toy” sabermetric). For purposes of measurement I use the available Brisnet ratings.
*Distance: Longest race a horse has run in
*Dosage: Incorporating numbers from www.pedigreequery.com , taking the top 20% of the pedigree profiles matched against an average of the winners at Churchill Downs in 2012 (this average is at www.chef-de-race.com )
*2YO pace standard: Borrowing a system from Dave Litfin‘s classic “Dave Litfin’s Expert Handicapping” I measured all two-year-old campaigns to see how they progressed in pace numbers from Labor Day through the end of the year, in comparison to any races run prior to Labor Day.
*Average Winning Distance: Higher of the two AWD numbers from either sire or dam for each.
To break ties and for further analysis I included a minor arcana of categories, measuring current pace, not necessarily an indicator of how these will do 3 months from now:
Recovery: Horses who are bouncing back in pace after setting a standard just after layoff
ROI: Trainers with particular ROI angles that are proving fruitful (no jockeys assigned, of course)
Forging horses (those running a new lifetime best in the last 60 days)
Exploding pace: (those running just past their 2YO best in the last 60)
Layoff: Horses who are off layoff and have won off a layoff prior or who won in their first lifetime start
Track bias: Measuring Churchill Downs in 2012, top winning horses were speed demons, so they’ll get bonus points
Bounce: Horses who gained sharply in pace last time out
Bounce back: My own creation, watching who had an ‘off’ race after a bounce.Now for that top 10:
#10: FLASHBACK: 2 wins in 2 starts. Wire-to-wire winner of last week’s Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita, 8.5 furlongs. One of the 20% who had great dosage numbers (sire Tapit, dam Rhumb Line, with AP Indy, Pleasant Colony, Unbridled 3 generations back);
#9: FRAC DADDY. 2 races at Churchill, only lifetime win in 4 starts in a 50k maiden race. Lost by neck at the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes there afterward at 8.5 furlongs. First race was only in October 4 running 2nd with an 88 Brisnet number, improving in the races at Churchill.
#8: TESSERON (field). Won first race, 67k maiden on 9/3 with 99 score, followed up with 92 and 90 in Graded events. Last race was the aforementioned Kentucky Jockey Club stakes, finishing 4th. Oustanding dosage (sire Tapit, dam Cute Cognac, with AP Indy, Unbridled 3 generations back).
#7: UNCAPTURED: Winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes, also the Iriquois Stakes with a 99, both at Churchill. Winner of 6 of 7 lifetime races.
#6: BALANCE THE BOOKS (field): Winner of the With Anticipation and Bourbon Stakes, both at 8.5 furlongs. All 4 lifetime races were turf routes. AWD peak of 7.9 from sire Lemon Drop Kid.
#5: ITSMYLUCKYDAY won the Holy Bull last time out at 8.5 furlongs. Current pace is the best of the 70 horses in the pool (last 3 races from the 2nd call: 105, 116, 91)
#4: PROUD STRIKE (field) 3 lifetime races,first 2 at Churchill, breaking maiden last time out at Fair Grounds (8.5 furlongs). Dam with an 8.2 AWD (Conella, by Pleasant Colony)
#3: GOLDENCENTS: Winner of Sham Stakes and the Delta Downs Jackpot (8.5 furlongs), 2nd in the Champagne, and first lifetime race, a 70k maiden event. Always first or 2nd in each call, each race. Strong pace numbers (last 3 from 2nd call are 104, 102, 95)
#2: OVERANALYZE: Alternating wins through 5 lifetime races. Winner of the Remsen (9 furlongs) and the Futurity. 3rd in the Iroquois at Churchill. The win at Aqueduct in the Remsen was a 104, just past his impressive maiden win of 101.

#1: REVOLUTIONARY: 4 maiden races, then a win in the Withers last week at 8.5 furlongs. Among the better horses in dosage (sire War Pass, dam Runup The Colors, with Seattle Slew 3 generations back, and championt 2YO colt Hoist The Flag in both pedigree sides) Average Winning Distance from Runup The Colors (multiple Graded stakes winner, from AP Indy-Runup The Flagpole) is 8.2, one of the best numbers from this group.What I plan to do is put $2 win bets on 3 horses who are no better than 9-1 in the pool. Top priority will be the horses that I rank highest. I might play 1 of these horses from the field leaving me with 2 from the standard 24. I will likely wait for the last hour to make any wagers. I will do likewise with pools 2 and 3 for the Derby, meaning there will be $18 wagered from the pool on my behalf, without duplicating win bets unless a prior selection is in the pool for worse odds than before. On Derby Day, I’ll do likewise with such horses whose locked odds from the pool are worse near post time.