Emerald Downs picks 5/13/16

This week I accepted a position at Emerald Downs, working as a mutuel clerk for the major days of the meet.  The position renders me ineligible to continue in the 123racing contest, but I will continue to do my picks strictly on this blog.  As schedule permits,  I will post selections the night before a race
Race 2: Dudley Studley, Outdidya, Justa Gusta.  Key variables for Dudley Studley: Best AWD numbers in the field, best track performance of the field, improved at 1st call 1st race after layoff.
Race 3: Trick Silver, Abeja (TRIP PLAY), Cozzabi.
Trick Silver enters with good workouts and tight pattern of speed figures. Abeja was rather wide in his 3rd try at maiden last time, should have won. Competitive pace numbers for this field especially for Emerald.
Race 4: Command Authority, Arms War, Cascade Cat:
Command Authority deserving favorite with consistent speed figures, best works.
Race 5: Fine Red Wine, Sanibel Harbor, Tiki Torch
Another favorite here, Fine Red Wine best pace numbers measured by run style, good works, good turn time gain between last 2 races. Track speed is best of this field
Race 6: Ready Set  Jet (BEST), Mike Man’s Gold, Betsy’s Gold
The lone longshot play and an easy one, Ready Set Jet best pace numbers per run style, jockey switch a positive one, back to Camacho-Flores. Shipping win in his past too. Best workouts coming in, and strong turn time showing.
Race 7: In Private, Portray Yr Vision, Hugs & Kisses
In Private the price play, in bounceback pace position, should benefit from track bias with the rail position.

Tomorrow early, I’ll post early thoughts on Emerald Saturday, 4 stakes to cover at Belmont Park, and a post mortem on the Kentucky Derby.

Emerald Downs picks races 5-10 5/1/16

You might be aware I’m playing the Emerald Downs 123racing free handicapping contest on each race day, with prizes for top earners based on the mutuel payouts at the end of the meet.  I’m in the middle of the pack entering today’s races.  The last 6 races are always the contest races and I have thoughts on each.
5th:  Top 3: 2-1-4: Great Ride, Racetrackrummy, Cat King
Great Ride winless in 9 EMD starts, 2 wins in 25 races, but today should be the 7YO gelding’s day. This closer makes his 4th straight try at the bottom level of claiming at $2500 and his 2nd start of 2016. Switching to Javier Matias, with whom he won at Prairie Meadows last October. He is the lone early closer of the field, and is on an upward pace tick. Also shows best turn time of the field.
Great Ride is my lone overlay in this field, figuring him at 5/2, against morning line of 8-1.
6th: Top 3: 1-7-2: Follow My Tracks, Ancient Mystery, Air Grinder.
Follow My Tracks 5 placings in 9 lifetime here, 13-3-3-1 overall. 81 Brisnet speed figure is best for the distance of this field, 82 best of EMD of field as well. Prior win 1st off layoff, in bounceback mode after bouncing from 80 to 66 last time out. Fastest pace numbers overall, plus fastest turn time last out.
No overlays in this one.
7th: Top 3: 9-2-6: Fable Haven, Doubledeesonthetee, Secret Harbor.
Fable Haven I’ve rated my best bet for the day. 2nd start of 2016, never placed at EMD in 5 starts. Only horse with improved pace form, a small new top from 68 to 70 achieved last out. Only deep closer in the field. Also has best turn time of the field.
Fable Haven is a longshot and easily my lone overlay here, 15/1 morning line, which I rank as even-money.
8th: 3-5-4: Parkers Bluff, Dare Me Devil, Southern Solution.
Parkers Bluff is 18 for 25 in placings at Emerald lifetime, makes his 2016 debut here as well. Owns best AWD numbers (Parker’s Storm Cat/Keep On Bluffing, out of Pine Bluff). Prior winner first off layoff, one race removed from an 86 figure, bouncing last time out to 69. Bunch of workouts to begin the year, all local, some of them rather fast. Won twice here last spring, hoping the similar conditions will be an improvement over recent races. Competitive turn time too.
Southern Solution the one overlay for me in the 8th.  3rd race after reclaim, also has good turn time coming in. Last out was 80 Brisnet upon a 4-wide trip.
9th: 7-5-4: Let It Flo, Mystic Appeal, Queen’s Rush.
Let It Flo all 9 races lifetime here at Emerald, 9-1-1-3.  Only backstretch speed of the field, this 4YO filly enters with 1 fast local work, and has waited 3 weeks to stretch out. Overcame wide trip with 68 Brisnet last out. One of two horses who improved at 1st call last time first after layoff.
Alpine Heir I have ranked at 7-1, with morning-line rank last and 15-1 of the field, proves to be my overlay here.
10th: 7-2-6: Stormin Cozzene, Good Scuffler, Cozzabi.
Stormin Cozzene makes 2nd lifetime start, debuting with a 41 Brisnet nearly a year ago at 5.5 furlongs.  Since then he has built up a solid work tab, and easily waiting longest to stretch out.
Dakota Firefly 2nd longest price on the morning-line listing is my one overlay in this one.

Idealistic Stats 8/13/15 podcast

11th edition of the Idealistic Stats podcast is now available.

RSS: http://idealisticstats.podomatic.com/rss2.xml

Also accessible permanently at the Internet Archive:
https://archive.org/details/idealisticstats081315

mp3: https://idealisticstats.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/idealisticstats081315.mp3

Main website: idealisticstats.wordpress.com

This week I focused on players to watch for the 2015 PGA Championship
Also: selections for the Barbara Shinpoch Stakes at Emerald Downs and the Arlington Million
Plus: Boxing analysis of Friday’s WBO cruiserweight title fight.

Music used in this program:
Annie Wenz “Play Ball” – Ride The Sky CD http://www.anniewenz.com
The Dan Sheehan Conspiracy “Have A Nice Summer” – Are You Conspirienced? CD http://www.dansheehan.net
Diane Durrett & Soul Suga “Woohoo” – s/t CD http://www.dianedurrett.com
DJ Flowerdove “Distant Project Gate (Remix)”

http://www.soundcloud.com/djflowerdove

Thanks for listening!

Dan Herman
idealisticstats.wordpress.com
dan@radiocrystalblue.net
Twitter: @idealisticstats

Enlightened Derby Trail update, analysis of stakes at Emerald, Remington

The Enlightened Derby Trail continues it’s trek toward next year’s Run For All Those Roses with today’s Gottstein Futurity at Auburn, WA’s Emerald Downs.   This will be my home track as I’m moving, somehow, to the Seattle metro area in the next few weeks. Great timing on my part as it’s actually closing day.
Here’s my look at the contenders:

1 PRIME ENGINE won his maiden debut at the 18k level in pure cruise control in the stretch.  Best average winning distance from pedigree (Northern Afleet/Gravy Train’s Song, by Unbridled’s Song).  ML odds: 8/5. My odds: 20/1 Dark horse.

2 VAL DE SAIRE is the one horse who was a steady increase in pace. Ater his 2nd place finish in his maiden debut in August, he increased Brisnet speed to 66 in another ungraded stakes race. Finally he breaks maiden status in his most recent race at the 18k level, pairing up the 66 with a 69. It could be a sign of better things. He’s the best of the 3 late threats should there be a pace duel. ML odds: 15-1. My odds: 9/2. Contender, overlay.

3 OLD FASHIONED GRIT won his maiden debut with a good stalking effort. 3 works since, then, 1 rather fast, best work tab of the field. He’s the x factor here. Will he keep pace with Trackattacker? ML odds: 10/1.  My odds: 7/1   Contender, possibly an overlay.

5 TRACKATTACKER is the other ML fave at 8/5 and deservedly so.  He leads in nearly every variable I track.  After winning his maiden debut, he was on layoff, then won 3 straight ungraded stakes also at Emerald, all at 50k, and wiring the field, winning each race with ease.  This is a superbly exciting horse to see.  I am declaring the race the Trackattacker Invitational, and he easily should pick up the 100 points for the EDT race.

Top 4
5 Trackattacker
3 Old Fashioned Gift
2 Val de Saire
1 Prime Engine
*****
Now the capsule view..just the top 3 contenders profiled…for the 6 ThoroEnduro contest races at Remington Park.

Race 2 is the a 5.5 furlong claiming race for fillies and mares who are non-winners of 2 races.

5 DELIGHTFUL DELILAH graduated from maiden status in his 4th try last time out, his first race at RP. He wired the field with a 69 Brisnet score. This, paired up with  65 in previous may indicate better things today.  Best jockey/trainer combo: Jareth Loveberry (21% wins), JR Caldwell (30%). ML odds: 4/1. My odds: 2/1. Favorite,.
4 DAKAMO DENIA broke maiden in 2nd start nearly 2 years ago, and has had trouble in higher class ever since. 89 Brisnet score from 2 years ago is best speed on RP surface of this field. Off a year long layoff, she’s worked out steadily since, with 1 recent work being rather fast, and having run 4 furlongs in those works in the last 3. Respective to post position, she runs the fastest of these.  ML odds 2/1. My odds: 6/1.
10 ETASONG graduated last year at Lone Star, and also had trouble against better fillies since, even with recent switch to route and turf. She switches back to dirt and sprint here.  This sprinter has the best early and consistent speed for her style in her class.  Looking for a bounceback, after scores of 47, 57 and 47 in the last 3 races.  ML odds: 30/1. My odds: 6/1. Overlay.

Not much value for this race. Frankly I think it’s a one horse race, with the real race being for 2nd.
Race 5 is the Remington Green Stakes, 9 furlongs on turf, for 3YO+., 100k.
5 HOLIDAY MISCHIEF comes out of a 6th place finish in the Unbridled at Lousiana Downs, and prior to that, 2 dazzling Brisnet scores of 105 and 107, the John Bullit and a 35k allowance race respectively.  Top jockey/trainer here: CM Berry is 20% Joe Offolter 10%. Nice pace overall from a middle post. I’m expecting a bounce back up considering the 85 he posted in his last race.  Track bias in his favor also: Sprinters in turf routes are winning 36%, and posts 4 through 7 are 13% winners. ML odds: 20/1. My odds: Better than 2/1. Favorite, overlay.
6 GENTLEMAN’S KITTEN won a 50k ungraded stakes last time out, matching his lifetime best with a 102 score. 5 wins in 12 lifetime on the turf. That 102 score is the best of the field on turf. 95 for the distance, achieved in Fair Grounds this winter, is also tops of the field.  Only hose in the field with good pace progression considering the 102 and the gain from his previous start. I rank this stalker as fastest of the field. Another horse who can benefit from the middle post. ML odds: 8/5. My odds: 2/1.
4 GREENGRASSOFWYOMING last won in February in a 50k allowance race. On a 2 month layoff, posted 4 works at Churchill, with 2 works very fast. Also prefers a middle post.  ML odds: 6/1. My odds: 8/1.
Challenging contest race here, which is really between 5 and 6, calling for a major upset by 5.
Race 6 is the Flashy Lady Stakes, 50k, fillies and mares 3YO+ going 6 furlongs.
4 SNAPPY GIRL is 12 of 18 in the money lifetime, 7 wnis, and a streak of 7 in the money, and won 2 ungraded stakes in the process. Switches from turf to dirt and back up from 5 furlongs, a frequented switch in her career as of late. Best class win was a 100k stakes win at Evangeline Downs earlier this year. Comes out of 2 races posting her lifetime best Brisnet scores of 99 each. 3 workke s since last at RP, 2 of them very fast. Very good trip last time out, wiring the field. ML odds: 9/5. My odds: 2/1. Favorite
7 LASTING BUBBLES ships from TX, has 6 wins and 2 2nds at the distance, plus a 102 lifetime best for the distance, best of this field. Trainer Kevin Peek has 7 wins and 13 placings with horses shipping in, for a decent return of 2.37.  On the bench since mid-July, she has proven to win without rust previously. Gained from 84 to 100 in last race, with a great stalking trip in the Valor Farms. She is definitely the speed of the field.  ML odds: 2/1. My odds: 9/2.
8 AMERICAN SUGAR is the lone closer. Best AWD numbers here (Harlan’s Holiday/I Love America, by Quiet American). 2 wins in 4 here at RP, with a 95 Brisnet, which is best of this field. That score was achieved last November. Posted scores of 82 in a 6 furlong sprint on dirt, then 90 in a turf sprint, then 82 in a turf route.  With the distance and surface switch, this may aid in a bounceback.  ML odds: 30/1. Me: 8/1. Overlay.
Another tough race to figure but the chalk should bear out.
Race 9 is the marquee race, the Oklahoma Derby, a Grade 3 race for 3YOs, going 9 furlongs. 14 horses going at it. This to me was the toughest race I’ve had to study in a long time.
3 STREET PRANCER in the money 4 times of last 5 races, including 3 wins.  Posted a lifetime best 87 2 races back in a 75k stakes win, then trailed off to 74 in a distant 2nd place finish in a 50k stakes event. Best works of the field, with all 3 at RP, 1 very fast. Won 2 races from an inner post. Aiming for a bounceback in this effort today.  ML odds: 30/1  Me: 3/1. Favorite and overlay.
7 TONITO M started his career south of the 48 in Puerto Rico, then has had alternating mixed results in the US, but all in sharp company. Best horse in pace progression of the field.  In studying the generally blank races he ran at Canonero Race Track, he’s definitely improved overall with the stateside runs, including a 95 Brisnet last time out in a 200k stakes race. It can be surmised it’s his lifetime best.  ML odds: 8/1. My odds: 9/2. Overlay.
10 IBAKA has 6 wins in 8 lifetime, and a 5 race win streak.  Also has 2 wins and a show with a 94 best score at RP, best score of this field. That was his graduation out of maiden status in November 2013. Outside post should not be an issue.  Looked good in his stalking effort last time out in a 44k statebred allowance race here in August.  ML odds: 15/1. My odds: 5/1. Overlay.
Yes, 3 overlays per morning-line, in what should be an exciting event.  This is one to savor.

Race 9 is the Remington Park Oaks for 3YO fillies going 8.5 furlongs, 200k at stake.

4 SHANNON NICOLE is a runaway fave here. The closer had won a 200k race at Indiana Downs last time out after mixed blessings in other races of lesser class. She’s also unaffected by rust, having won off layoff in that prior race. Gained from 88 to 94 Brisnet, which is her lifetime best, and a short new top at that. That is a good sign.   She’s also the speed of the field with a great stretch kick, has 4 works since last race, 3 very fast, one a bullet. More? Also likes a middle post. and is one of 2 horses with a relatively clean trip coming in. ML odds: 3/1. I fully agree, and probably better than that.
6 LADY FIFTY TWO won the Washington Oaks last time out at Emerald in August, then headed to the bench. Pace progression is her best feature. Gained a new top going from 82 to 90 in the race at Emerald.   Has to be considered to get a piece.  ML odds: 12/1. My odds: 9/2. Overlay.
3 HAVEYOUGONEAWAY won a 40k allowance race last time out in her only start at Remington, with an 86 Brisnet. That’s best for the track in this field.  Best jockey/trainer combo here: Jareth Loveberry has 21% wins, and Allen Milligan has 9%.  ML odds: 12/1. My odds: 9/1. Possible overlay.
One horse race here, as Shannon Nicole is my lock between all 6 races.

Race 10 is the Remington Park Sprint Cup Stakes, 3YO+ going 6 furlongs for 150k.

7 ALSVID won ungraded stakes at Prairie Meadows and Zia in the last year. 4 wins and a 2nd lifetime at RP. 107 Brisnet is best of those who have raced at RP. 7 wins and 6 2nds in 15 lifetime for the distance with a lifetime best of 113; clearly he’s master of the distance of the field.  Jockey/trainer combo advantage is this: CM Berry with 20% and Chris Hartman with 13%. No rust for this gelding, having won off layoff prior. I have the stalking horse rated as fastest of the field. Nice works too: 6 in all, 5 at RP, 2 very fast, last one a bullet.  ML odds: 5/1. My odds: better than 2/1. Favorite.
8 CASTLETOWN won a 40k restricted stakes effort at Cantebury last time out, surging in Brisnet from 93 to a lifetime best 104.  That new top is slightly better than a 101 she ran 2 years hence.  Good sprinting effort last time too.  ML odds: 9/2. My odds fully agree.
6 HEITAI is the only other sprinter here. Switches from turf and gains a furlong after a 3 month layoff and a great sprinting effort in a 300k stakes race.  4 works in the layoff at RP, last one a bullet. Middle post should help chances.
Very good betting race here tho I have 7 the clear choice at mild value.

Weekly handicapping contest update

This would have been the next week in the Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trails…if only Colonial Downs kept their 2014 thoroughbred season. There is always next year….or is there? Read on http://www.tidewaterreview.com/news/va-tr-colonial-downs-appeals-racing-commission-order-20140701,0,962335.story
The next races for the Enlightened Trails are:
Fillies: Prairie Gold Lassie at Prairie Downs, 7/19
Colts: Mountaineer Stakes at Mountaineer, 8/2
Emerald Downs http://www.emerald123.com
I start this weekend’s handicapping once again in the number 1 position at Emerald Downs, with $1442.30 (virtual $, people!). Coming out of 4 days of racing Thursday through Sunday, I had some nice surprises Thursday, 7/3: ….Stolen Forum paying $48 in mutuels, 1 win, 2 2nds, 2 3rds.
Here’s what I posted on the emerald123.com board: “Stolen Forum ships from Turf Paradise, slight drop in class, plus layoff, gets Richard who is 3.24 ROI in last 60 with trainer Joe Toye. 2 good works, one a bullet since last race. Handled 4.5 furlongs great last time out in win. Seems to run best with inside post as well.”

I believe he was helped by riderless horse flanking my winner along the rail.

Friday 7/4: 1 show and then 3 straight wins to round out the 6 race contest card, including $22 on Mister Breeze in the feature, gate to wire.. Saturday 7/5: 2 value picks, one of whom scratched at gate….earned 3 more wins, 1 2nd, 1 3rd. Best showing was $10 on Miss Fast Eddie. Sunday 7/6: I picked all chalk except for Madame Pele who didn’t place. I didn’t mind seeing Stopshoppingdebbie go 8 for 8 lifetime, best such record on the continent. As for me… how about 3 more wins….and 1 2nd. Earned double digits on all cashes, including Tsarina Haven for $28.80, 8-1 odds with one big single run.
Currently I have $18 on the 2nd place player, and $9 more over 3rd. From there, there’s a gap of $29 out of cash position to 4th.

Survival At The Shore (Monmouth) http://www.survivalattheshore.com
Lost my 2nd of 3 lifelines as I got thoroughly shut out of Monmouth picks. 2 horses didn’t bother to keep up to speed, and one just had a bad trip and slow start. Good ol’ racing luck. Need to stay afloat and have at least one horse on podium tomorrow.

**
The Racing Biz, representing all that’s good of racing in the Mid-Atlantic states, has the 5th leg of their monthly handicapping contest on Saturday. I have to register best score using win/place in 10 races. Delaware and Parx are the traks involved. Care to take me on? http://www.theracingbiz.com/racing/maryland-handicapping-series-picks/
I have 5 entries out to the grand prize drawing in October, 4 for entering, plus one for getting a 2nd place finish in one monthly contest.
**
Not to be outdone, there is the Del Mar online contest which runs Wednesday-Sunday every week starting next week. http://www.dmtc.com/contest/21

general Enlightened Trail and contest update

Giving you an update on 3 handicapping series I’ve involved in, each of which is hosted by 123racing.com. The contests are free, and it’s simply a matter of selecting one horse per race to win. Each contest has their own set of ways and means.
With these contests, my approach is simply selecting the one most likely horse to win, not to simply contend. I don’t hold out for value horses, and you can’t skip a race with these contests. What I actually do in practice is nominate my top 3 horses. In actual wagering I might play these along with actual favorites for partial exacta wheels and straight win bets if the odds suggest an overlay. In my own system, I create my own betting line and compare it to the odds a few minutes to post time. These contests are true pick-and-pray; you have to get your selections in x amount of minutes before the first contest race, usually 30 minutes.

SURVIVAL AT THE SHORE began 2 weeks into the Monmouth Park meet. To survive, a player must have at least 1 podium finish each day between 3 pre-selected races, wagering a mythical $2 WPS ticket. You are allowed one lifeline, and more are added the longer one survives. A second total miss on 3 races eliminates you. You survive (read ‘win’) if you make it to the end of the meet. Cash prizes for top 3, also one for most winners, and merch for week’s best bankroll.
I already have lost my safety net so it’s a matter of cashing the rest of the long summer. I did survive this last year, so I know it can be done. 1708 players remain out of 6777 that have entered. I’m actually ranked 1178th with $204.80. My single best score came on Sunday, with a win by Hampton Bays Sun. $27.40 was the payout. On day 4, I had 2 wins and a place for my best day of the 14 so far, $37.80. Next ‘life preserver’ comes 6/29, so I must cash on Friday and Saturday to get that far. I really don’t expect to finish high in earnings. I’m happy to survive this one.

GRAND RIVER CHALLENGE is non-elimination, basically picking 1 horse each in 3 races with a mythical $2 WPS wager. From now through mid-August, 22 race days in all, it’s a matter of cashing. Top 5 get cash prizes. 6th through 30 get merch prizes.
Grand River Raceway hosts standardbreds. I’m still rather rusty with this sort of handicapping but I stumbled upon a system melded from a few introduced by Bob Pandolfo. It’s not a terribly scientific method and there’s mostly faves and overall fast times involved, but I’m cashing. There are 1685 players involved, and yours truly is currently 93rd overall in winnings, and 7th in overall wins. 7 players have 8 wins in the 12 races contested. I’m in the next tier with 7 plus one show finish. Big score so far was Windsun Kenda at $18.20. Each day’s total, in fact, has succeeded itself, from 12.20 in day 1 to 36.30 in day 4. Overall I have $97.90. Curiously tho, if I really did play across-the-board wagers in 12 races, would I have profited? $6 x 12 races = $72. So I’d realize about a 36% profit. I suppose it’s fine, but my confidence in real wagering would go toward wins with value horses, and exactas (er, exactors) with my top 2 or even top 3 horses.

EMERALD DOWNS runs their contest through September. Also non-elimination, it involves the last 6 races each race day (weekend dates plus Friday and sometimes a Thursday or Monday), and also involves a mythical $2 WPS wager. Scoring is ranked on the $ won. Top 3 placing at the end of the challenge earn a cash prize. There are also prizes for most winners during the challenge and most $ earned during a calendar week. The thing with Emerald is that there aren’t a lot of shippers, and the ones that do might come from the lower Cali tracks or western Canada. Plus the fields are smaller, and you’ll often see the same horses running every month.
I’m cblue456 during the challenge. Why not have a look at how I’m doing?


Absolutely true, folks. 2nd in the overall challenge, and nearly won the weekly merch prize at that this past week. On the bulletin board, I made my picks for Saturday with this quote:

$78.60 was the payout for Kiss Em, the longest shot of 7 running.
Here are the stats through 180 races:
58 wins, 31 seconds, 25 thirds, 20 fourths.
That’s 32% win rate, 63% in the money. Figure that I’ll get 2 wins and 4 placings on an average day
My overall earnings are $1153.80, which is an average of $6.40 earned per race. Figure that against a $6 WPS wager and I’m barely breaking even. And I’m #2! Again, I don’t recommend WPS wagers in real life but they’ll do just fine in contests.

If I played my top 3 in these races the way I usually do, with wins and exactas, I wonder if I’d do more than break even .Maybe. Just maybe.
You can jump any time you want tho you’ll have a ways to go before catching up to me. http://www.emerald123.com
***
Coming up this Saturday is a one-day event from the folks behind the Breeders Cup: Million Dollar Finish. They are involving one race a week that serves as a win-and-you’re-in event for the BC races later on (I don’t like this approach to entry but that’s a rant for a different post). You have to predict the exact order of finish for the top 10 horses. I’m intrigued enough to want to join. Care to partake? www.milliondollarfinish.com

The Enlightened Derby/Oaks Trails will begin with 2 races at Oak Tree @ Pleasanton. The two races in my focus are the Everett Nevin Stakes for 2YO, and the Juan Gonzalez Memorial for 2YO fillies. http://www.race-track.info says that this track is the oldest of its kind in the US. Probably a fitting beginning for the trail!
The key quote in a story by the San Francisco Gate relates to the power of what a publicly-owned track can do. http://www.sfgate.com/sports/article/Oak-Tree-bolsters-Alameda-Fair-meet-5563101.php

Also,at Colonial Downs, site of the next track on my trails, there is serious talk about scrapping their 2014 season to provide a 2015 season instead. News came just hours ago:
http://www.tidewaterreview.com/news/va-tr-colonial-downs-ordered-to-sign-2015-thoroughbred-season-contract-would-forgo-2014-race-season-20140623,0,6902185.story

Emerald Downs 123racing handicapping analysis for today

No time for Friday Night Fight viewing but I did work on 6 of the races in tonight’s portion of Emerald Downs handicapping challenge. Cutting to the chase, I’m find that the most important variables in the arsenal include:

Results from trip handicapping…seeing which horses have had some trouble, got out of trouble, and still finished like a contender. Or those with ideal trips that had some traffic trouble.
Track bias: matching the patterns from the meet to the run styles and post positions of the applicable horses
Horses who have won multiple races from a general selection of posts (near the rail, near the outside, or somewhere in middle), or otherwise had a better average pace in those areas
Horses bounding back in pace after having an ‘off’ race

I have other sets of data involving jockeys and trainers, plus the application of pace and recent form and lifetime stats. Combining it all, I feel more confident about making intelligent selections.
Tonight at Emerald, I chose these:
Race 2: 7 MOJAVE SECRET: Trainer has 2 wins in 3 races, 3rd also in money, when claiming a horse, then dropping to lower claim price first race used (2.13 ROI). Juan Guitterez/Blaine Wright jockey/trainer combo has best win % in field. Had an off race of 64 last time out, and should bounce back here. Had a very good trip in last race, yielding race in stretch very late.
Race 3: 7 MERRY SHERRY has longest price of my 6 picks. Recovering in pace from last 2 races. Has exploding/forging pace angles as well. Best pace numbers per post, also comes out of a great trip,rallying at finish.
Race 4: 7 BIG PAYDAY should bounce back after a 67 race, that from an 81 lifetime best 2 races ago. Had tough trip but finished competitively in large field.
Race 5: 5 SILVER SNEAKERS has done with a middle post, raced against his closing type last time and was competitive really should have saved more ground prior.
Race 6: 5 DUCOTI is my best. Has outstanding edges in most categories including pedigree, best jockey/trainer, 1st race off reclaim, fastest rated horse and good works.
Race 7: 3 JORDAN’S JEM is best in class, good pace numbers for the track, also has Juan Guitterez/Wenzel connection, both over 20% wins. Wenzel great with horses dropping 2 classes.

Sometime overnight I’ll have trip analysis and ratings of my contenders for the Travers Stakes and Pacific Classic.