This year’s HOFM class (never, ever forget this is a
museum too, folks) appears pretty strong, with a few
first-timers looking to become first-ballot entrats, and
there are none facing elimination from next year’s ballot.
Jack Morris and Alan Trammell got in via the Modern
Baseball group, to lower the bar somewhat overall. I felt
that Morris was somewhat marginal, and Trammell
reaching at best to be in the conversation. Hall of Fame?
I suppose. More like the Hall of Pretty Consistently
Good. For A While.
As with my previous rankings, I took the top 10 in
various categories, all listed in Baseball-reference.com:
Black Ink, Grey Ink, HOF Monitor, HOF Standards, JAWS,
JAWSpos, WAR, WAR/7, most similar players to careers
totals within top 10, most similar cumulative by age
within top 10. From these I counted who were top 10 in
the most categories, and broke ties simply using side-
by-side comparisons. Every position was considered
equal to another.
Results of the initial spreadsheet plus the alternate
Chipper and Thome are easily in among those appearing
for the first time. Johan, among pitchers, proved to be
best of the first-time pitchers. With the Black Ink, Grey
Ink, and WAR stats, he’s in the conversation, but he
lacks in all other areas. Notably he has no similar stats
to other pitchers by others per career and age. Lefty
Grove might have been the best match, but now more
like very good but not oustanding pitchers such as Cole
Hamels or David Price.
Andruw Jones also is best of the rest among batters. He
ranks well within his WAR and JAWS stats, and matches
up well historically to Reggie, Frank Robinson and Duke
Snider, including best match Dale Murphy. I have always
liked him; maybe with a weaker class he’ll move up
There was a tie for the last spot, between Vladimir,
Edgar Martinez and Sheffield. Here’s how they ranked
Black Ink: Edgar by a mile
Grey: Guerrero, comfortably
Monitor: Guerrero, easily
Standard: Guerrero, big
WAR: Here’s where there is a closer argument between
the three. Edgar with the narrow advantage.
WAR7: Edgar in another close shave.
JAWS: Edgar again, close.
JAWSPOS: Edgar, 11th at 3B, nicely over Vladimir and
Sheffield in RF.
Similar career in stats: Sheff ranks just ahead of Vladimir
here. Sheff compares to these HOF’ers: Ott, Reggie,
Griffey, Mickey, Billy Williams, Frank Robinson, Frank
Vladimir: Bagwell, Rice, Stargell, Billy Williams, Duke
Similarity, age: Guerrero, easily.
Edgar narrowly gets the edge over Vladimir for my
virtual vote over the others.
IN: Clemens, Bonds, Thome, Ramirez, Walker, Sosa,
Jones, Mussina, Schilling, Edgar.
As for my own, sabermetric version of the ballot, there
were 19 batters, 10 starters, and 4 relief pitchers. Kerry
Wood I count as both starter and reliever, as he switched
mid-careeer from his starter role.
I decided on creating a vote by taking the top 6 batters,
3 starters, and the one best reliever.
From the total amount of batters, Bonds, Chipper,
Ramirez, Sheffield, Thome are in…there is a tiebreaker
between Guerrero, Sosa and Andruw Jones. Let’s see how
Games played: Sosa by about 200 over others
WPA/LI: Guerrero narrowly over Sosa
MVP Shares: Guerrero slightly over Sosa
Franchises played for: A bit of a tie. Sosa with the edge,
playing for just 4.
HR/PA: Sosa wins here, a few PAs ahead of the others
Postseason games: Andruw Jones leads here with 76,
dwarfing Vladimir’s 44.
Zen factor: Vladimir slight edge over the others at 416.
Sosa and Guerrero in a tie after these. Using them
head-to-head, here’s who matches up better:
Sosa leads in G, franchises, HR/PA. Guerrero leads in all
others. I will give him the edge here.
SP: Between the 9, I chose the top 3 for each variable and
collected the details. Clemens and Schilling are an easy
1-2. Then there’s a tie between Wood and Johan for the
last spot. Here’s how they match up:
Johan leads in these categories: WPA/LI, MVP, CYA,
franchises. Wood leads in G, K/BF, postseason G, Zen
Gee, flatfooted tie. Do I put them both in? I could. Maybe
it’s just easier to leave them in and go with a 5-4-1
framework….5 batters, 4 starters, 1 RP.
If we do this, then here’s how my ballot would work:
Bonds, Chipper, Thome, Ramirez, Sheffield
Clemens, Schilling, Johan, Wood
Combining both lists, here’s my bona fides:
Clemens, Bonds, Thome, Ramirez, Schilling
On the doorstep….these are on either one of the other
Sheffield, Chipper, Johan, Wood, Hoffman, Walker, Jones,
Mussina, Sosa, Edgar.
Everyone else is out, including McGriff,
Kent, Wagner, and all the other first-time ballot