|2014-03-29||14:51:36||Bet||Derby Future Wager||4||Exacta||$1.00||5+15+22/24||$3.00|
|2014-03-29||14:51:20||Bet||Derby Future Wager||4||Exacta||$1.00||24/5+15+22||$3.00|
|2014-03-29||14:51:00||Bet||Derby Future Wager||4||Exacta||$1.00||22/5+15||$2.00|
|2014-03-29||14:50:47||Bet||Derby Future Wager||4||Exacta||$1.00||15/5+22||$2.00|
|2014-03-29||14:50:28||Bet||Derby Future Wager||4||Exacta||$1.00||5/15+22||$2.00|
|2014-03-29||14:50:06||Bet||Derby Future Wager||4||Win||$2.00||BX 5+15+22||$6.00|
|2014-03-01||13:08:30||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Exacta||$1.00||19/9+18||$2.00|
|2014-03-01||13:07:56||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Exacta||$1.00||18/9+19||$2.00|
|2014-03-01||13:07:25||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Exacta||$1.00||9/18+19||$2.00|
|2014-03-01||13:04:34||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Exacta||$1.00||9+18+19/24||$3.00|
|2014-03-01||13:04:17||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Exacta||$1.00||24/9+18+19||$3.00|
|2014-03-01||13:03:47||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Win||$2.00||BX 9+18+19||$6.00|
|2014-02-08||14:55:23||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Win||$2.00||BX 1+19+21||$6.00|
|2013-11-30||10:48:19||Bet||Derby Future Wager||1||Win||$2.00||BX 2+9+15+19+21||$10.00|
2013: $31 wagered, $139 won
|2013-05-04||15:58:51||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Exacta||$1.00||11/1+12+24||$3.00||$103.50|
|2013-05-04||15:58:51||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Win||$2.00||BX 1+11+12+24||$8.00||$26.20|
|2013-03-03||14:47:15||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Exacta||$1.00||11/1+12+24||$3.00|
|2013-03-03||14:45:53||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Exacta||$1.00||12/1+11+24||$3.00|
|2013-03-03||14:45:26||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Exacta||$1.00||1/11+12+24||$3.00|
|2013-03-03||14:44:28||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Exacta||$1.00||24/1+11+12||$3.00|
|2013-03-03||14:43:00||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Win||$2.00||BX 1+11+12+24||$8.00|
|2012-05-05||12:14:55||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Win||$2.00||12||$0.00||$46.20|
|2012-04-01||14:51:41||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Win||$2.00||21||$2.00|
|2012-04-01||14:51:34||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Win||$2.00||20||$2.00|
|2012-04-01||14:51:23||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Win||$2.00||16||$2.00|
|2012-04-01||14:51:16||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Win||$2.00||4||$2.00|
|2012-03-04||12:14:55||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Win||$2.00||12||$2.00|
|2012-03-04||09:19:16||Bet||Derby Future Wager||2||Win||$2.00||5+6+10||$6.00|
|2012-02-12||08:59:31||Bet||Derby Future Wager||1||Win||$2.00||4+12+21||$6.00|
|2011-05-07||14:40:37||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Win||$2.00||1+8+9||$0.00||$64.60|
|2011-04-03||14:40:37||Bet||Derby Future Wager||3||Win||$2.00||1+8+9||$6.00|
total of 91$ wagered in the pool, $249 won.
There’s your proof that I can spot a Derby winner a few calendar pages out.
From Derby pool 2:
Tapiture 38-1 win
I have these live horses from that field over and under Tapiture in exactas:
Ride On Curlin
California Chrome 9-1
We Miss Artie 36-1
I have the field at 5-1 over and under these in exactas.
Live from the field:
That covers 9 horses of the 19 running on Saturday. Now let’s go horse-for-horse.
VICAR”S IN TROUBLE…surely is. You knew it from the boos when he got the post position draw. Winner of two graded races down at Fair Grounds. One of two horses have outstanding progression in pace overall. After layoff he broke maiden with a 103 Brisnet score, then ran lower when being introduced to Graded and 3YO horses in next 2 races, then forged a new top with a 104 in the LA Derby. Never mind that he surged from 92 in winning that race. For this race, more evidence is required he’ll win. For my Enlightened Derby Trail (more on this in a prior post), he is definitely the best from the Gulf Coast tracks. But for this race, he has an outside chance at best.
HARRY’S HOLIDAY won an ungraded stakes event at Turf Paradise, and that’s about it, really. Did finish 2nd in the Spiral. One of 2 horses whose Brisnet took a dive. He went from 93 to 67 in the Blue Grass. Generally I’d call for a bounce-back. But I don’t see it. See, he’s never run a dirt route. His last 4 have been on the all-weather. Too much to adjust too. Despite great representation of horses racing in Kentucky, I suggest throwing this one out. I’ve stated on Twitter (@idealisticstats) in response to @Danonymousman’s query that this is the horse most likely to finish last.
CALIFORNIA CHROME, everyone’s favorite it seems, has run since last April, all of the runs on the West Coast. (like, dude,where else, right?). Wins in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby in last 2. Pace progression is the key for him. After layoff in early December, he won an ungraded stakes race at Betfair Hollywood Park with a 101 Brisnet, then bounced with a 94 after, then matching and exceeding his lifetime best in the San Felipe in March, and then further with a 106 last time. He’s been built into a new level of consistency especially with Espinoza aboard. Contender.
DANCE WITH FATE has raced in different racing locales and has largely been successful, with a win in the Blue Grass last out at 6-1. Another horse who has some of the built-in makeup of a winner. He has had repeated success in a middle post. It was only in the Blue Grass that he rated faster than his 2YO best. That effort, a 99 Brisnet is his best by a wide margin. Bounce potential, therefore is strong. And consider this: No races on dirt since turning 3, never mind that he already ran 2 dirt routes with mixed results. Dark horse.
CHITU wasn’t part of my EDT, as he didn’t race in any of my Derby preps for my version of the Trail. What am I missing? A win in the Sunland Derby. 1st or 2nd in every call point in his 4 races. Martin Garcia at the helm. Set new tops in both 3YO starts. Yes he could bounce from his 103 in the Sunland. But did you see how he’s been working? 4 works, 2 at Churchill, 1 nearly a bullet (2nd best of 46). Contender.
COMMANDING CURVE was the best of the rest of the horses in my EDT. The 3rd place finish in the LA Derby, with a 98 lifetime best, isn’t enough for me, but I was intrigued. Running at Fair Grounds at 3, he’s a different horse but the Kentucky Derby will truly prove his worth. Going in, I can find nothing to suggest he will succeed here. Throw out.
WICKED STRONG did the classic NY/FL/NY shuffle in his career thus far. Winner of the Wood Memorial. ROI angles: Rajiv Maragh has 2 wins in 2 races with trainer Jim Jerkens in the last 60 days, for a return of 11.10. That, of course, includes the Wood Memorial at 9-1. Also: Jerkens has a good record in 2014: 8 wins and 18 in the money from 32 starts, for a return of 2.47. Exceeded his 2YO best 2 races back in an optional claimer at Gulfstream, then surged to a 103 Brisnet last out. A tough ask to duplicate that number. Outside contender at best.
My selections for this year’s Derby:
1st: 10 Wildcat Red
2nd: 6 Samraat
3rd: 13 Chitu
4th: 5 California Chrome
PS: I did profit in the Oaks Future Wager. Initially, for whatever reason, I thought I had lost out with Untapable winning. But I had the win and the exacta from the pool. My Miss Sophia was a field horse in the pool and I had Untapable as one of my 3 straight win choices. I used the field over and under her. Wagered $24, earned $36.