Stakes action/Enlightened Trails update for today.

The penultimate week for my Enlightened Trails has come upon us. This week, 3 of 4 divisions on the Oaks and Derby portions will be resolved, with just the Arkansas Derby left to contend with on 4/16.  It’s the biggest day for the Trails, which will largely set up my mythical Derby and Oaks fields.  With little time to get this post in, I’m just posting the top 3 selections, and analysis of my chosen pick, and any overlays based on morning-line.
Points are 1000-500-250-125 for each race.  More about these Trails in a separate page on my website, which includes the updated spreadsheet.
This post will be edited upon scratches/changes.
KEENELAND
ASHLAND STAKES: Weep No More, Banree, Carina Mia, as I attempt to get 2 longshots ahead of the highly favored in this 5-horse field.  Weep No More is the one filly with improving pace form coming in….68 in her debut in November, then 77 spike in January, then 89 last out in the Suncoast at Tampa Bay in February.  Only late closer in the field. Lots of speed in this field, a situation which can help her chances. Possible bounce in this race, tho also owns a shipping win. Best turn time of the field.
Overlays: Weep No More (my odds 1-1), and Banree (8-1).  The rest: Rachel’s Valentina 14-1; Carina Mia 3-1.
BLUE GRASS STAKES: Zapperini, Cherry Wine, Crescent Drive, another race I see longshots succeeding.
Zapperini with speed ratings in the 80s, is waiting the longest to stretch out. 5th in the Risen Star at 8.5 furlongs on 2/20. Gained slightly on leader from the back in that race, and ran one second faster in turn time, best of today’s field.
Overlays: Zapperini (8-5), Crescent Drive (5-1)
The rest: Brody’s Cause 9-1, Zulu 29-1, Donegal Moon 7-1, Cherry Wine and Laoban 14-1,
AQUEDUCT:
GAZELLE STAKES:  Behrnik’s Bank, Lewis Bay, Clair de Lune
Behrnik’s Bank has the bounceback angle going….running an 88 last time in the NY Stallions Stakes, prior was a 103 in the Blue Mountain Juvenile, which was a spike up. I’ve ranked this sprinter as having the best speed of the field. Good series of Aqueduct works, 2 of them were bullets. Edwin Gonzalez, with whom she’s got both lifetime wins with, returns to ride here.  Waiting since 12/20 to stretch from a sprint.
Overlays: Behrnik’s Bank 3-1.
The rest: Lewis Bay 4-1, Dreams To Reality 14-1, Royal Obsession 14-1, Mo d’Amour 3-1.
WOOD MEMORIAL: Flexibility, Matt King Coal, Trojan Nation, Adventist.
Flexibility won the Grade 3 Jerome, and was 2nd in the Remsen and Nashua to Mohaymen. 4th last time out in the Withers.  Best speed rating for Aqueduct and the 9 furlong distance (100 in the Remsen). Laid off since 1/30, but no rust here;  has worked out frequently at Belmont with fast fractions.  Won his debut with Manuel Franco, who returns to ride him here.  Best turn time gain of the field last time out.
Overlays:  Flexibility (1-1), Trojan Nation 9-1.  The rest: Matt King Coal 4-1, Shagaf and Tale of S’Avail 14-1, Adventist 29-1.

SANTA ANITA:
SA OAKS: Forever Darling, Mokat, Songbird, as I pull for the upset
Forever Darling with 2 lifetime wins coming off layoff, including the Santa Ynez 2 races back. Bounced from 92 to 67 last out, running 9th in the Rachel Alexandra. Horses with her early/pressing style are winning 8.5  furlong races at a 37% clip, with posts 4-7 taking 19%. 1st-time blinkers. Only horse with shipping win.  Approaching uptick, with her upside in the mid90s.

Overlays: Jade Princess 6-1, Forever Darling 5-2, Mokat 3-1. The rest: Songbird 7-2, Bellamentary 11-1.
SA DERBY: Exaggerator, Diplodocus, Rare Candy, 3rd choice in morning line over the 2 longshots. I liked Exaggerator in the Future Wager. Dominant speed of the field, this early-presser has triple digit Brisnets in last 3…3rd in the San Felipe, 2nd in the San Vincente, winner of the Delta Jackpot.  Best AWD numbers coming in (sired by Curlin; damsire Vindication).
Overlays: Diplodocus (3-1), Danzing Candy 14-1, Rare Candy 8-1, Uncle Lino 3-1).
OAKLAWN PARK:
FANTASY STAKES: Ready To Confess, Florida Bird, Terra Promessa, choose big value over favorites.
Ready To Confess is the only filly to win first after layoff. Bounced from 94 to 82 in a 100k race on 2/6. Waiting since then to stretch out from a mile. She ran wide for much of that race, and it’s a race I can toss.  Only early speed in the race. 4 local works, 2 early ones very fast.
No Clammrs today, given the large workload.  I will give you thoughts on the Aintree Grand National in the next post.

Enlightened Trails update: Stakes analysis for Aqueduct, Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Keeneland

The Enlightened Oaks Trail wraps up on Saturday with 4 divisions to be decided, racing at Aqueduct, Keeneland, Oaklawn and Santa Anita.   The colts in the Enlightened Derby Trail have 3 divisions being decided in the same tracks, save Oaklawn Park (the Fantasy Stakes will be contested 4/11).
On this major day, I’ll post my top 3 in the 7 races and explain my reason for choosing the particular top pick.
Following this I’ll give you the possible scenarios for those who may qualify for my Enlightened Derby and Oaks fields.   A lot will be happening over a series of hours; Twitter is the best place to stay abreast, at @idealisticstats

Santa Anita Oaks:
Top 4: #6 Stellar Wind. #4 Singing Kitty  #2 Glory, #7 Wild At Heart
Stellar Wind is the class of the field, winning the Grade 3 San Ysabel last out here 5 weeks ago.That race came just after layoff and claim, and at today’s 8.5 furlong distance. Broke maiden with a 90 Brisnet, and followed it up to begin her 3YO campaign with a 95 in the San Ysabel. Track bias is favoring stalking-type horses in 8.5 furlong races at a 41% win rate. Posts through 4 through 7 are winning at 16% at that distance. Only possible bounce risk in the field.

Enlightened Trail impact: Doesn’t get much simpler: First 2 finishers are in the mythical Oaks field. 3rd place finisher here may outrank the others.
Santa Anita Derby:
Top 4: #1 Dortmund. #2 One Lucky Dane #4 Bolo. #5 Prospect Park
No stopping the top 3YO in the country. Dortmund won the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, then raced at SA, winning the San Felipe and Robert B. Lewis in triple-digit Brisnets. Forging small new tops of that height at 3 makes him a very strong candidate.  From 6 races contested on this track, stalking horses won 2 of them, plus a win from an inside post.
EDT impact: Metaboss is locked in with 1000, as is Cross The Line with 500. There are just a few scenarios that would knock Dortmund out of the picture…4th place finish, with Cross the Line 3rd or out of the top 4; or finishes 5th or 6th and Cross The Line finishes worse than 2nd. Top 2 or 3 finishers may well get into my Derby field here. American Pharaoh and Conquest Typhoon remain alive with 250 but need help.
Gazelle Stakes:
Top 4: #5 Condo Commando #2 Sweet Corine #7 Noble and a Beauty #3 Money’s oncharlotte
Condo has a nice advantage against this field. Winner of the Spinaway (Grade 1) at Saratoga and Demoiselle (Grade 2) here with a 102 Brisnet. 4 works in prep here, 2 very fast, 1 a bullet. Track bias is favoring sprinters with an 8 race sample of races at 9 furlongs; 6 winners in those 8, in fact! Last out winner of the Busher here on 2/21 with a 97 Brisnet. Already a winner moving up in class and stretch out. Also switches back to Joel Rosario, with whom he won the Demoiselle.
EOT impact: Dortmund is very close to being a lock. Only finishing out of 4th will eliminate her.  Wonder Gal has 12 scenarios that favor here out of a possible. By The Moon sitting with 350 has 10 scenarios. Outside of that, it will likely go to whomever finishes 1-2.
Wood Memorial
Top 4:  #4 Frosted  #2 Toasting Master #6 Daredevil #3 Lieutenant Colonel
So far this is a rather competitive race.  Frosted broke maiden here in 3rd start with 94 Brisnet. Following a 2nd in the Remsen (at today’s 9 furlong distance) and layoff he was shipped to Florida, placing 2nd in the Holy Bull (matching 98 Brisnet lifetime best), and 4th last out in the Fountain Of Youth.  This stalker is the speed of the field; last 3 2nd call figures are 111, 93 and 98. 4 works at Palm Meadow, all 4 very fast with 2 bullets.
EDT impact:  Daredevil is locked into the mythical Derby field.  Even if he finishes out of the money, he wins a tiebreaker based on longer distance entered. 12 scenarios see El Kabeir win, all of which mean placing in the top 3. Top 2 in this race get in regardless.  Competitive Edge wins all tiebreakers against Conquest Typhoon for getting points in a Grade 1 race prior but must finish in the money for that to take place.
Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn:
Top 4: #5 Lady Tapit #2 Sweet Opportunity #9 Super Saks #4 Feathered
Looks like another strongly competitive race, and an upset pick this time, including the first 3 spots.  With a name like Lady Tapit, being sired by Tapit, you’d have to be really good, right?  She was 5th in her maiden debut, 56k level, going 6.5 furlongs at Santa Anita. 5 weeks later, she defeated 42k maiden company at Los Alamitos. Tapit gives her 7.4 average winning distance. Damsire Kingmambo grants 8.5 AWD.  Best works of the field. Laid off since the 12/12 race at Santa Anita, John Sadler has worked her 10 times, 7 of them very fast, last one a bullet. Freshest among those stretching out too.
EOT impact: All new shooters to the EDT here. This means the current top 2, I’m A Chatterbox and Birdatthewire, are locked in to the Oaks field with their 1000 points.  Winner today joins them. Nothing simpler than that.  Quality Rocks, also with 1000, is reportedly off the real Trail so that disqualifies her from my list.
And off to Keeneland for the last two:
Ashland Stakes: Top 4:
#3 Peace and War  #5 Silverpocketsfull #6 Lovely Maria #4 Angela Renee
This race looks rather dominant in favoring Peace and War. On the bench 6 months, she made her US debut here in the Grade 1 Alcibiad, posting an 86 Brisnet paying off at 23-1. Her prior 3 races were in GB, which doesn’t provide Brisnet numbers but I gathered that she’s actually peaking here, as she ran slower mph in her prior 2 races.  Very hard to discern easily but that’s what I had to do to figure this out.  Best track performance of this field. She won her prior race off layoff so don’t expect rust. In a relative sense this closer had the best trip coming into today’s race.
EOT impact: West Coast Belle is the only filly with points in the division running today. If she finishes in the money, she’s in the mythical Oaks field. Don’t Leave Me is already locked in with 1000 points, which means Sweet Success is out at 500 points. Winner of this race is in the show, and all circumstances save one will allow the 2nd place finisher advancement to the Oaks field.

Finally the Blue Grass Stakes:
Top 4:  #5 Carpe Diem #2 Gorgeous Bird #3 Pepper Roani #4 Unrivaled

Carpe Diem is the odds-on choice in the morning line but he barely ranks ahead of my contenders.  The inherent influence is prominent. Sire is Giant’s Causeway (8.3 AWD), dam-sire Unbridled’s Song (7.2). Won the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Futurity on this track in October, 100 Brisnet. This stalker I’ve rated fastest of all. One of 2 horses coming out of very good trip.
EDT impact: None of this field have points in the Heartland division.  Dubai Sky will advance with 1000 points, and so too Conquest Typhoon with 500.  Top 2 finishers in this race will join them
Keep watch for all the madness with updates as fast as I can churn them out, as the Enlightened Trails reach the near-end point.  Twitter: @idealisticstats
Refer to the main page to read how the Trails work.

First look: Ashland & Blue Grass Stakes

With the announcement of the Blue Grass and Ashland Stakes entries I can now give you a better projection of who is in my mythical Derby and Oaks fields.  I am presenting a very first and fresh look at both races in this post, using a general collection of variables. Obviously, with some racing in the meet this week taking place, some variables likely will change. My final update will likely be Saturday morning, once scratches and changes are announced.
The Ashland Stakes is Grade 1 for leading fillies, 8.5 furlongs on the dirt.  Yes, dirt, unlike the synthetic, the issue of which was at the heart of my wanting a better system for the actual Derby Trail.

Pedigree: Angela Renee leads here, with both sire Bernardini and dam-sire Deputy Minister having an average winning distance of 7.6.  Bernardini had won the Preakness and was injured much of his early 3YO campaign, tho did win the Withers after the recovery period. His success really came late in 2006 with several Graded wins. Deputy Minister was injured for much of his 3YO campaign and never was on the Derby Trail, tho showed much success at stud.
Inherent pace: Peace and War’s debut in the US happened to be on this track in October, winning the Alcibiad (Grade 1) with an 86 Brisnet. I don’t often like horses in their 2nd start in the US after running in Europe or elsewhere. Be that as it may, he’s run just one race on a fast track, and that was her debut, on the all-weather in Lingfield, then ended up on ‘good’ surfaces on the turf in Ascot and Haydock Park, then wet fast dirt at Keeneland. Back to Angela Renee, she’s run nothing but Graded events since her maiden debut last June.  She’s placed in 4 of those events, with a win in the Grade 1 Chandler at Saratoga.

Connections: No jockey/trainer info here as the meet begins today, 3/31.  Peace and War’s win in the Alcibiad does represent trainer Olly Steven’s lone entry of the year. Having this be a 2nd Graded event for him, and a route on dirt, winning at a very nice price, there is hope he will catch lightning in a bottle again. .
Pace progress: Lovely Maria is the lone horse with any factor in this category. She peaked with an 89 in November, then forged a 93 on January 28. Considering the length of time, it’s been too long to be influenced from that effort. But she did pair it up with another 93 last time out, finishing 2nd to I’m A Chatterbox in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra, Fair Grounds, 2/21. That latest 93 score holds up here today. Peace And War’s the only horse in the field who  has won directly off layoff.
Recent developments: Lovely Maria comes in with 3 bullet works, all at 5 furlongs, breezing, at Fair Grounds. Silverpocketsfull also put in 3 works at 4 and 5 furlongs at Palm Meadows Training Center, all fast. Lassofthemohicans is the speed of the field, measured by her recent 2nd call numbers (109 in the Davona Dale, 96 in the Forward Gal). Both of Temper Mint Patty’s wins, in fact, her first 2 races lifetime, were with an inner post.
Top factors influencing this race: Lovely Maria is a bounce risk with her 93 scores ahead of a 78 prior to that. She is also the lone speed of the field. Silverpocketsfull posted a lifetime best 92 and 90 ahead of an 86. Along with good works coming, she also has Brian Hernandez Jr back in the saddle, with whom she has her lone win. She’s stretching from 6.5 furlongs and her 6th place finish in the Grade 2 Davona Dale.
My odds for the contenders:
Temper Mint Patty 12-1
Peace and War 5-2
Angela Renee 10-1
Silverpocketsfull 7-2
Lovely Maria 2-1
In terms of Enlightened Oaks Trail matters: West Coast Belle is the lone filly in the race with any points, 250. This means the following scenario is in place:
If West Coast Belle wins:
West Coast Belle is IN the KY Oaks with 1250 points, Don’t Leave Me (1st in the Bourbonette Oaks, is already locked IN the KY Oaks with 1000 points). 3rd place finisher of the Ashland would WIN a tiebreak over Sweet Success (2nd in the Bourbonette) with 500 points and Grade 1 placing. Sweet Success would be eligible as a wild-card to replace any fillies who are removed from the real life Oaks Trail along with duplicate divisional qualifiers.
If West Coast Belle finishes 2nd:  Winner of the Ashland is IN with 1000, Don’t Leave Me is IN with 1000. West Coast Belle is IN with 750.
If West Coast Belle finishes 3rd: Ashland winner is IN with 1000, Don’t Leave Me is IN with 1000,
West Coast Belle is IN with 500, winning tiebreak over Sweet Success.
If West Coast Belle finishes 4th: Ashland winner is in with 1000, Don’t Leave Me is IN with 1000. 3rd place in the Ashland is in with 500.
Now turning to the Blue Grass Stakes, a Grade 1 9-furlong effort for top colts on the dirt.
Pedigree: Carpe Diem leads with an 8.3 average winning distance from sire Giant’s Causeway who was racing in Europe instead of the Derby Trail. Dam-sire was Unbridled’s Song, Florida Derby and Wood Memorial winner who finished 5th in the 1996 KY Derby.
Inherent conditions: Carpe Diem won the G1 Breeders Cup Futurity here at Keeneland, a 100 Brisnet score over 8.5 furlongs. Also won the G2 Tampa Bay Derby and was 2nd in the BC Juvenile.
Connections: Junior Alvarado is aboard Classy Class. He and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin have combined for 4 wins and 5 placings in 7 races last 60 days, for a decent profit of 2.23 ROI.
Pace progess: Classy Class scored a small new top at 3 of 93, 3rd place in the Withers. Followed it up with a 91 in the Gotham.  Solid numbers in all 4 lifetime starts.
Recent variables:  Gorgeous Bird has 3 works coming in, 2 fast ones, last one at Keeneland. Both lifetime wins, his maiden win in 2nd start, then following start in 75k optional claimer, from an early post.
Latest variables:  Gorgeous Bird posted scores of 86, 93, then 86 last out. I’m playing the bounceback angle here. Won her maiden race stretching from 6.5 to 7 furlongs. Switches back to Brian Hernandez who got her that maiden win, shipping from Saratoga to Churchill. Last 2 races following end-of-year layoff were at Gulfstream.  Last race was The Fountain Of Youth,  2/21 at 8.5 furlongs. Trainer Ian Wilkes has gathered this colt the most changes coming in. Meanwhile, Unrivaled’s last 2 races of 92 and 94 are strong new tops over his previous run of 72..so a possible bounce here. This stalker comes in with the best trip…from 6th and closing to win by 5 against non-winners of 2 in a 45k allowance, 3/15 at Parx.

Here are my odds for the contenders:
Gorgeous Bird 3-1
Unrivaled 6-1
Carpe Diem 3-1

Classy Class 2-1
And here’s the Enlightened Derby Trail implications: No horses in this race have points…winner of the Blue Grass gets 1000 to share a mythical Derby spot with Dubai Sky. 2nd place probably will also get to go in with Conquest Typhoon, tho he could qualify for the East Coast division as well. Lots of possibilities but essentially the top 2 from this race will secure a place in the Derby.  And there are the other major stakes races to factor as well.
I’ll provide a similar first after past performances are released Wednesday.

Graded stakes events analysis and predictions, 4/13/13

11 races to handicap today across 5 tracks, many at the Graded level.  8 of the races are part of a free handicapping contest run by the folks at Equibase. Last time I tried it out, I finished in roughly at the top-third of all players.
I’ll be actually wagering just two races, the two big ones: Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.
Very typically I’ll wager to win on any of my top 3 selections who may run worse than 5-1, and also add to exactas underneath favorites and/or with each other.  For sake of the handicapping contest, they want my top selection; I would score based on a mythical $2 win and place ticket. 

These three races are not part of the tournament nor am I wagering, but will be tracking these:
CALDER
Calder Oaks:
8-1-5: Number One Dancer (longshot), E B Ryder, Street Girl
Number One Dancer after races in Puerto Rico, has run at Gulfstream and Calder prior. She has the fastest Brisnet number of those who have run and won here (75, in her US mainland debut). Also has the best winning Brisnet of those who have won on off-track conditions (68 on a sloppy Gulfstream track last time out; her 75 score was at Camarero in PR on a muddy track). Today’s race here is off the turf and on a sloppy surface. 2nd consecutive race running on layoff. Would give benefit of doubt here, seeing that she won her debut race, also at Camerero, last August. Further, has relatively best class in field. All other horses’s best wins were at the maiden level.  ROI angle: Trainer Saul Matos has slight positive +2.21 return combining all races between 2012 and 2013 (10% wins, 22% in the money).

SANTA ANITA:
Las Cienegas Stakes:
6-4-2: Mizdirection, Givine (longshot), Schiaparelli
Can’t go against the ‘jungle karma’! Jim Rome partly owns Mizdirection, who is undefeated on the downhill turf course.  This horse has already defeated top class mares in the Breeders Cup last year, and really there’s no more hills to run. Shares best Brisnet winning speed on this track (100) with Schiaparelli (won 2012 Monrovia). 8 wins and 3 seconds in 11 races on this particular course, including the 100 win. Proven to have won off layoff before.

AQUEDUCT:
Distaff Handicap:
4-6-3: Cluster Of Stars, Miss d’Oro, (longshot), Nakano
Cluster of Stars is a morning-line 1-1 fave. Must I explain why? All 4 lifetime runs at this track, and undefeated, always at the lead by the 2nd call. Classiest horse of the field (won a 100k event 2 races back). 3rd race back won with a 100 score in the mud, high off-track number of the field, and the track is muddy again today. This early pace type filly has the fastest pace numbers to her style in the field, and already a master at 6 furlongs. Forged lifetime best score of 110 in last race, and could bounce down from that effort. .  Miss d’Oro is the one value pick here. She has best Average Winning Distance totals from sire Medaglia d’Oro and dam-sire Saint Ballardo. Also best winning jockey/trainer combo (Lezcano 16%, Servis 26%). Good workouts too, last two were strongly ranked at Belmont.

Now for the races that count!
KEENELAND:
Commonwealth Stakes:
1-5-3  Gantry, Bernie the Maestro, Bind.
Chalky prediction, but that’s how it should go with this short field.  Gantry is best in class (winner of a Grade 2 event last year). Fastest pace numbers to his style in the field (last 3 second-call numbers all in triple-digits). Explosive/forging form, scoring a 106 in a 150k 6f effort at Fair Grounds last race, just past his lifetime best of 104 in the aforementioned Grade 2 event).

Shakertown Stakes:
8-9-6 Perfect Officer, China (longshot), Next Question
The 7YO late-running Perfect Officer won this race last year by a nose, scoring a lifetime best 111 (also best score of this field on Keeneland, for turf, and 5.5 furlongs,). Winning this race on layoff last year and hasn’t raced since August 15th, so hoping the trend continues here.  As for value, China has the fastest pace numbers in the field , and was reclaimed by trainer John Good 2 years ago with fairly good results. Track bias is favoring early-pace horses from the 8 post position and deeper. China is the only horse fitting this description.

Jenny Wiley Stakes:
4-2-6: Ausus (longshot), Old Tune, Samitar
Calling for an upset in this one. Ausus has explosive/forging form currently. Scored a lifetime best of 96 2 races back in a 75k event on 1/26. This number is just past his best number at age 3, a 91 on 9/28. Then put in a 92 effort in the Bayou Handicap on 2/23, and comes off 7 week layoff.  Best workout tab of the field: 4 works, last one a bullet at Keenelend.

BLUE GRASS STAKES:
3-1-6  3 longshots: Undrafted, Dynamic Sky, Channel Isle.   Yes I dare. Here’s how:
Undrafted won his only start on this track with a 100 score in his maiden debut, fastest of this field on this track. Ran 2 7-furlong sprints last 2 races, and should be well set to run the 9 furlongs here. 
It was hard to separate this horse from the other two, and I can even give one of the favorites, #7 Uncaptured a very fair look here.

*******
OAKLAWN PARK:

Northern Spur Stakes:
5-3-4 Get Happy Mister, Bemata, Western Sadler (longshot)
Get Happy Mister was undefeated in 4 lifetime races at Arlington Park, then was 7th in last race, on this track. Won a 100k event last August, best race win of this field. This sprinter has fastest pace numbers of the field (first call Brisnet numbers are all in the 90’s). With that 65 effort on this track last time, he looks primed to bounce back. Good work tab too: 4 works, all on this track, and 3 bullets.

Oaklawn Handicap:
9-1-6 Fort Larned, Cyber Secret, Golden Ron (longshot)
Multiple Graded stakes winner comes out of race at Gulfstream where he stumbled at start, and lost his jockey. Best of field at this distance (109 his best score, gaining this in the Whitney at Saratoga). No reason to think why he shouldn’t return to his triple-digit Brisnet winning ways here.

Count Fleet Sprint Handicap:
3-5-2 Justin Phillip, Flashpoint, Apprehender.
Not a bettable race by any stretch. Justin Phillip shares best winning Brisnet number on this track, 103, with Apprehender, and Outta Tune. His 103 came last time out in an optional-claim 50k race on 3/21. Fastest horse in the field (consistent triple-digit Brisnet numbers at second call). Great AWD numbers from sire First Samurai and dam-sire Cryptoclearance. Best jockey/trainer win % combo (Ricardo Santana Jr 25%, Steve Asmussen 22%). Seems to be in recovery mode; Ran a 103 on 1/19 after 10 week layoff, then dropped to 100, then the 103 effort last time out. This suggests he’s poised to rise even further. Good competitive workouts; last 2 were on this track and strong compared to others.

ARKANSAS DERBY:
9-7-6 Overanalyze, Texas Bling, Heaven’s Runway (favorite over 2 longshots)
Overanalyze won the Grade 2 Remsen two races back with lifetime best 104. That score is best at 9 furlongs of this field. Threw in a 94 in the Gotham last time out; I suspect he will bounce back up from that number. 4 works since last race.