All-stakes Pick 4 picks for Belmont 5/14/16

Here’s my take on the all-stakes Pick 4 races at Belmont Park.    I’ll give you a capsule form of races 4-9 of the Emerald Downs races later on.

RUFFIAN Stakes is a Grade 2 event for top fillies, going 1 mile on the muddy main track.
Top 3 are Welcome Aboard, Cavorting, Carrumba.
In using the big longshot of the 6 of this field, I am hoping that Welcome Aboard will represent good positive hidden pace form with an improved turn time as of late. Only early closer of the field. Light weight of the field too, carrying 115. Competitive works and similar move vs leader at 2nd call, so can’t throw out.

Overlay: Welcome Aboard
Speed requirements: Cavorting, early presser, needs a pace that slows down between calls.
Include Betty, deep closer, needs slower fractions between also. Spelling Again, early presser, needs slow and slowing fractions. Calamity Kane, sprinter, needs slow pace in general.
BEAUGAY STAKES is for top older fillies, 4YO+, going 8.5 furlongs on firm turf.
Top 3 will use of the favorites: Ball Dancing, Ticking Kate, My Miss Sophia.
g a deserving favorite, winner of the Jenny Wiley last year and the Sands Point in 2014, plus several races in France. Enters with best AWD numbers (Exchange Rate/Ball Gown by Silver Hawk)Prior wins first off layoff. Best work tab of the field.
This is a race I’d totally key the longshot Ticking Kate against the faves, who is my overlay as well. The case for Ticking Kate: multiple stakes winner in England, 5th race in the States, goes back to Belmont and back to a route as well. I’m aiming for her to run back to her 94 in the Canadian at Woodbine 2 races back. Prior win off layoff, fastest turn time of the field at 23.8.
Speed requirements: Recepta, closer, needs a fast pace at the beginning that slows down later.  Tapitry, early presser, needs pace that slows down somewhat.
Sistas Stroll, closer, like Recepta, needs a fast pace that slows down.
Strike Charmer, closer, needs a fast pace.
Next is the Grade 2 PETER PAN, 9 furlongs on the ‘good’ Belmont dirt.
Top 3 are Singleton, Governor Malibu and Adventist. Totally using longshot and mild value, avoiding all chalk.
Singleton still a maiden after 4 races, showed promise 2 races back with a 98 score at Gulfstream at this distance. He is attempting to run back to that number after bounce last time. Track bias for distance and post is currently favoring posts 1-3.  Turn time gain, plus his bounced figure of 81 shows he’s got much more in the tank.
Singleton and Governor Malibu, plus Wild About Deb are my 3 overlays here. Governor Malibu owns best Belmont speed of these with 91. Dropping 6 lbs to carry here, won with a 4 lbs drop earlier in career. Positive jockey switch to Joel Rosario at 22% and prior win with him, 2 shipping wins also.
Wild About Deb broke maiden in 2nd effort with a 99 last month at Santa Anita on a sloppy track.  That score is best for the distance of this field.  Also best AWD numbers (Eskenderaya/Smarty Deb, out of Smart Strike). Only early closer in the race. Improved on 2nd call last time out 1st after layoff. 24 second turn time leads this field.
Speed requirements: Governor Malibu needs a very slow pace. Unified needs a moderate pace that slows up.
Finally the MAN O’WAR Stakes, 4YOs+ going 11 furlongs on the inner turf. Top 3: Go Around, Closing Bell, Biz The Nurse.
Go Around: Won the Turf Classic at Tampa Bay last time out. Only horse in good pace form: Set new small top last time with a 99 figure, a few points ahead of his 95 in the Saranac at Saratoga.  Fastest horse as measured by run style. Only early/presser type in the field, suggesting his tactical speed may be advantageous. All 4 of his wins are shipping wins, and he did win here a year ago today.
Overlays: Each horse in my top 3, basically. Closing Bell won a 300k stakes event at Kentucky Downs last year. Good work tab in comparison to these with 2 bullets. 2 shipping wins. Adds blinkers, Waiting 7 weeks to stretch out 2 more furlongs.  Biz The Nurse is the big longshot. Racing vs top horses in Italy, she did win her US debut 14 months ago, with no real success since.  Took a wide trip in the stretch last time, caused a DQ, still posted a 3rd straight 97 figure. I feel he can do better. This deep closer seems to have the fastest pace numbers of the field, and has consistent figures at that.
Speed requirements: Go Around, early presser, needs a pace that improves as the race goes on.

Enlightened Trails updates (Belmont Park edition)

This week, the Enlightened Trails reach Beautiful Belmont Park for its place
in my series. Both races are part of the corresponding East Coast division.
 Top 4 within the Derby Trail and top 3 in the Oaks trail make the show, before factoring in wild cards.
Quick recap of last week:
Coolidge, Concord Fast, Cattle Company, Heber in the Manzano.  No overlays
presented in the race. Coolidge worth a play as a win bet but never factored
in Concord Fast to spoil the exacta bid.  Coolidge now with 150 points in
the minors. Heber up to 110.
HOF: Fall Salute, Bird Of Prey, Discreet Lover, Formal Submission are the
top 4. Fall Salute now up to 150. Get Jets was a scratch.  My 2nd and 3rd
choices finish 3-4.   No real value within the race as there was just 4
horses, the worst at 5-1.
In the Gottstein, it was Gold Rush Dancer, My Heart Goes SOn, Cape Grace,
Love the Lion. I was reallly pulling for Wando Cat but he never showed
interest, nor did Packy’s Out. Gold Rush Dancer was the big fave who did win
The Frizette is a Grade 1 event for top 2YO fillies, $400K, 1 mile on the
Belmont dirt track.
Width enters as a considerable favorite. Won his debut vs 83k maiden fillies
at Saratoga, 80 Brisnet.
She’s All Ready dominates undefeated after 2 races at Saratoga, speed
figures of 84 and 91, wiring both fields.  Slight bounce possibility here
considering the disparity of those numbers.  She is the absolute speed
threat,and early speed at that. Already prior winner while stretching out
along with class rise, and has 2 bullet works coming in.
Width won her debut vs 83k maidens with 80 Brisnet at Saratoga.  Best works
of the field, 4 here, last 3 very fast, all at 5 furlongs and breezing.
Turn time of 22.8 is not shabby either.
Desert Tune may be the best hope for value.  70 speed figure in her debut at
the Spa, following up in slightly lower class of 75k maidens here at
Belmont, good track, winning that one.   Best pedigree here (Street
Cry/Sahara Gold, by Seeking The Gold) Her 82 speed figure last time out is
best for distance and track of these.
Suggested odds: Desert Tune 5-1. She’s All Ready 1-1. Anna Rae 29-1.
Nemoralia and Width, 8-1.   No overlays here. With my top 2 projected as top
betting choices in the morning line, I’d likely pass up this race.
The Champagne Stakes is for top 2YO colts going 1 mile, 500k.
Tale Of S’Avall, another of the great crop by Tale Of Ekati.  Won his debut
at Saratoga with 90 Brisnet vs 93k maidens.  Only horse in the bunch with
good-looking works.  Debut Lasix makes him dangerous. 4 works at Belmont, 2
of them quite fast.
Greenpoint Crusader 2nd vs 83k maidens in debut, then won at same level with
92 speed figure.  The pair of figures alone makes him a threat.
Too close to call between the best of the rest to find a 3rd
Suggested odds: Ready Dancer 3-1  Portfolio Manager 29-1. Sunny Ridge
14-1.Possible overlay compared tomorrow’s morning-line of 20-1. Already a
winner at the distance, 9/6 at Monmouth in the Sapling. The mile here should
be no problem, nor the shipping win.

Laurel Park, Belmont Stakes handicapping contest entries, Enlightened Trail recap

Today a look at the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Beautiful Belmont, and a full look at my top 3 for Leg 7 in The Racing Biz’s Maryland Handicapping Series.
For the Enlightened Derby Trail tomorrow I’ll analyze the Gottstein Futurity for my new home track of Emerald Downs, right on time for closing day. I’m actually moving to Tacoma WA at some point in October.  Beyond this race, Belmont will have their opportunity to shine on both Trails, with the Champagne and Frizette Stakes on 10/4.
Here are my top 3 for the contest races at Laurel:
Race 3: 9-2-11
Race 4: 2-7-6
Race 5: 1-10-2
Race 6: 3-5-2
Race 7: 4-2-5
Race 8: 10-1-7
Race 9: 6-5-3
Race 10: 5-8-13
Race 11: 11-8-10
I selected a value horse per morning line in races 5, 7,8, 10, and 11. 7,8, and 10 I have rated very close.   The one race that’s closest to a lock is race 4.
I used jockey/trainer standings alone to judge the finale, and I used my full arsenal of variables for the others.
Race 9 at Belmont: 3-1a-5
Race 10 (see below…)
Only my top horse counts for the contest, for a mythical $2 Win-Place wager. Top money earned wins a bag of swag, top 5 win an extra entry for the grand prize of the series.
In a recap of the prior EDT race at Presque Isle, 2 of the 3 horses with prior Trails were a factor.  Less Than Perfect gets 100 points for first place and now has 125. Bourbon Cowboy adds 50 to his total, which is now 75.  Draw Night joins the trail with 25, and Breakin The Fever 10 for his 4th place finish.
TALE OF EKATI: Pleasant Tales makes her racing debut in Race 5 at Churchill, an MSW race, 37k, 7 furlongs for fillies. Already she is listed at 15-1 morning line.   Does she have a chance?  Not at all. She doesn’t measure up at all in any of the variables I use, especially considering the poor record of trainer Dallas Stewart.  I see the race run as 3-11-10  Another first-timer, False Positive, will be at Belmont in an MSW race, 60k, 1 mile.
Later today I’ll take to Twitter to present picks for Emerald and Remington.
Now for the Jockey Club Gold Cup:
Just 5 of the 12 horses seem to have any real chance. This race is 10 furlongs, 3YO+, Grade 1, $1 million:
1 MICROMANAGE won the Grade 3 Skip Away and the ungraded Birdstone. Cuts back 2 furlongs tho moves up in class, along with a rider switch to Luis Saez, Track bias in his favor: In dirt routes here, stalking horses are winning at a 39% rate. Rail horses are winning 22%.  Ping-pong movement in Brisnet speed figures: A 111 in the Brooklyn, a 96 in the Suburban, a 105 in the Birdstone, then a 98 in the Garland Cup at Parx last time out.  I’m predicting a bounceback here. ML: 20/1. My odds: 5/2. Contender at a price, and overlay.
8 TONALIST is the Belmont Stakes winner as well as the Peter Pan. Christophe Clement removes blinkers for this race. Best track performance of the field, a 108 in the Belmont. Best jockey/trainer aboard: Joel Rosario 30% wins, Clement 25%. I’ve rated this stalker as fastest of the field.  Also 3 great works here since the Travers, 2 of them were bullets, and those were on soft ground at that. My suspicion is that he’s more of a true mudder but we’re fast and firm today.  ML odds: 4/1. My odds: 8/5. Favorite, contender. Might end up being an overlay, a cheap one at that.
9 STEPHANOATSEE stretches from 9 to 10 furlongs. Hasn’t won since 2012. Best average winning distance from pedigree here (AP Indy/Oatsee, by Unbridled). Progressed in pace to score a 101 last time out in the Woodward, just ahead of his 2013 best.  ML odds: 20/1. My odds: 6/1. Outside contender, and overlay.
10 VE DAY won the Travers and the Curlin, part of a 4 race streak where he emerged from top maiden company. Keeps Javier Castellano for this race. He and Jimmy Jerkens have 2 wins and placings in the last 60 days, for an ROI of 9.13 in a small sample.  Sharp increase in speed from 92 to 102 Brisnet. 3 works at Belmont since, 1 very fast. Seems acclimated to dirt after running turf in first four. ML odds: 5/1. My odds: 6/1. Contender.
11 MORENO won the Whitney 2 races back. Junior Alvarado has 1 win and 3 placing riding for Eric Guillot in last 60 days, for 3.50 ROI.  ML odds: 7/2, listed as the lukewarm favorite.  My odds: 20/1.  Dark horse.
Top 4:
8 Tonalist
1 Micromanage
10 VE Day
9 Stephanoatsee
Overlays: 8,1
Predicting strong value upfront for this one.

Belmont Park selections 9/20/14

Today’s a fine day or horse racing, with action at the track I currently live closest to, Parx, in Philadelphia. I do type “closest” as I’m in a spot where I must relocate within a few weeks. Where to? I’m not sure. For the short term I might remain in the city if there is work I can find straight away or I might follow the advice of several people and flock to the Northwest. I have received a rather interesting connection to Seattle and Portland, and I just might follow up on it. That would put me closer to Emerald Downs in the town of Auburn WA. Outside of that, I’ve received some interest in Madison WI, not far from Chicago and Arlington Park. I’ll let you know my decision when the time comesThe action at Parx includes 4 stakes races which I’ll outline here, including the Pennsylvania Derby, which stars California Chrome and Bayern.
I also took another stab at which is offering 1 cash prize for the highest point gainer at Belmont Park. Here’s my top 3 for all 10 races:
Race 1: 5-1-2
Race 2: 6-7-4
Race 3: 3-5-7
Race 4: 6-2-7
Race 5: 12-4-2
Race 6: 10-5-4
Race 7: 3-1-8
Race 8: 2-1-4
Race 9: 6-5-9
Race 10: 7-8-6
Fair amount of favorites and values between the top selections of each race.
I also had to make my selections by 3am ET, which meant I was at the risk of scratches and changes. Ignoring the also-eligible horses, I aimed to keep that number very low. Indeed, only scratch from Race 6 is impacting, the #5 will not run.
I still wish Multicapper would offer more than one prize, and have a point system that’s more reflective of the $ amount.

Stay tuned here as I’ll get you those Parx stakes selections a bit later.

Belmont Park 10/27/12 selections/analysis

Looking forward to 10 more races at Belmont for the year, plus a gentle look toward Santa Anita in prep for next weekend’s Breeders Cup. I will be covering those races and providing some advance analysis for you then. I’m not one to pore over numbers while trends are still being established, so I will privately monitor the Santa Anita races for today (Saturday), Sunday, and Thursday to see what trends are worth playing for and against.

Meanwhile for today, it’s Belmont one last time.

Here are the top 4 trends that have paid off in the 1st or 2nd position over the last 5 race days, Saturday through Friday:
Horses out of a race dueling with eventual winner and losing.
Horses benefiting from track bias, either by run style, or post position, measured by combo of meet and week totals.
Fastest horse by last 3 overall Equibase numbers
Horses who forge new lifetime top in last 60 days from 2YO or 3YO, 90 days if older.

Worst trends:
Horses currently under reclaim
Horses in ‘exploding’ form; slight gain in last year’s best lifetime race to set new top.
Horses with great ROI angles.
Horses in recovery form; horses dropping in pace after layoff then circling back to that number and increasing, anytime in the last 90 days.

Plus/minus will measure the horses that fall outside my top 4 selections to suggest the horses that may be worth a few more $ to play. The most sensitive areas are these: If the 4th selection is involved in the strong side of the plus/minus, I may use that in exactas more so with other strong horses and favorites, regardless of odds. Also: Any horses who are strong and outside of the top 4 and better than 5-1 will definitely be used as win. I might combine strong horses with each other for exactas, and also under favorites if they come at large price.

Outside of plus/minus, here’s how I’d ideally wager:

Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.

Here we go:

Race 1

plus: 1,2 (++) ,4,7 (+),10 (+),12 (+),3,5,11
minus: 7,2,1,13
EL CORRIENTE comes out of turf sprint, running competitively until the stretch, faded to 4th and finally gave way in stretch. Stretches from sprint to route here. Increased speed from 68 to 74 in this race, so slight bounce possible. No works since that 10/14 race.
Bring in #10 and #12 as outside contender to mix up with these! #10, RALLY POINT and #12 STEPHEN’S REVENGE, both can benefit from track bias: Closer-type horses running 8.5 furlongs on turf this meet are 37% winners, and 3 of 6 this week. Both horses also bounce risk,having increased speed between last 2 races, also both forging new lifetime tops in the process.

race 2: 6-2/1-7
plus: 6 +, 2,3,5
minus: 5,7

BRIGAND has best track speed of this field, a 102 winner from his last race on 10/12, optional claimer of 25k. This sprinter has fastest pace numbers of the field. Forged lifetime best with that 102 also.
Bring in #3 for confidence: EQUIVOCATION comes out of a speed duel in last race, back on 2/29 at Aqueduct, going 1 mile 70 yards. Ran 2nd by head much of the race, was 2nd by 3 in stretch, and only lost serious ground at that point.

race 3:

plus: 3,9,6,13
minus: 3,9,13 
CATALONIA is lone benefactor of track bias as lone early speed: Sprinters running 6 furlongs on dirt are winning 41% races in the meet, and 33% this week. Moved from 80 to 89 in last race, forging lifetime best and carries the ‘exploding’ pace variable (prior lifetime best was at age 2, an 85.

race 4: Banner Gala Stakes
3-6-2 and 7 or 1 (whoever has worse odds at post time)

plus: 1,6,3
minus: none
Definitely use the 1 here regardless of odds.
#3, ZULANITE has best track speed among winners here, a 93 scored in the Grade 2 Sands Point during the spring meet. Moved from 76 to 88 in last race. Her 93, 3 races back in the Riskaverse at Saratoga, is her lifetime best, and still could approach that number. No works since last race on 10/18.
#1 SEA ISLAND moved from 68 to 86 in an ungraded stakes last time out. Track bias angle: Horses with the rail in 9 furlong races on the inner turf this meet have won 2 of 6 races.
Race 5:
plus: 2,7,8,10,11
minus: 2 
#7 is DRINKSONTHEHOUSE. This early-pace filly has fastest overall pace of the field. Forged lifetime best number of 89 2 races back, 9/9 here. Also has best jockey/trainer combo in John R Velazquez (23 % winners) and Michael Trombetta (18%).
Bring in 8 and 11 as extra value horses. #8 WHITE SANGRIA and #11 DESERT BLISS also both forged lifetime best numbers in recent races. Desert Bliss paired up 85s in her last 2 races here in the autumn meet, and White Sangria broken maiden last time out with an 82 4 weeks ago.

race 6:
plus: 3,4,5,6,8,11
minus: 3,9,10 
Use #5 with top selections, regardless of odds.
#9 is PRECIOUS METAL who has best Belmont speed among winners on the turf (95 back on 5/11), along with having fastest winning turf speed (same race). Best jockey/trainer combo in John R. Velazquez along with David Jacobson (33%). I like the top 4 very strongly, not using the other plus horses. #5, CHIEF CARLSON forged lifetime win last time out, a 96 at Monmouth on 10/6. One of 6 horses (all plus horses) with early-pace style that will be helped by track bias. Horses of this style running 6 furlongs on inner turf are winning 47% (8 wins of 17) during the meet, and 1 of 3 this week.

race 7: 4-12-10-11 
plus: 4,10,12
minus: 5,9,10 
#4: GOING GOING GONE shares top Equibase speed figure at Belmont, a 78 that was run 2 races back on 9/15. This closer has fastest pace numbers of the field. That 78 score represents his lifetime best and should improve after having thrown an ‘off’ 72 last time out on 9/26.

Race 8: Turnback The Alarm Stakes.
plus: 2,6,3,8

minus: 3,1 
Definitely use #6 for extra value.
#3 is rather polarizing in my selections but giving benefit of doubt. GO UNBRIDLED, dead closer, has fastest pace numbers in the field. Forged lifetime best of 98 2 races back at Saratoga, then ran 93 4 weeks ago here. Carries the ‘exploding’ form factor, improving on prior lifetime best of 96 set last year. ROI angle: Junior Alvarado has worked with trainer Allen Jerkens for 3 races in the last 60 days, winning 2, for return of 3.87. Also: Jerkens has saddled 40 horses in Graded events this year, for 15% wins, 35% in money, for return of 2.52.
#6: ARENA ELVIRA should benefit from track bias: late-pace horses running 8.5 furlongs on dirt are winning 35% during the meet, and 1 of 4 this week.

Race 9: Bold Ruler Handicap:
plus: 10, 6
minus: 1,5,9 
#6, PRIVATE TALE moved from 92 to 99 last time out, forging lifetime best at Laurel on 9/27. Has the recovery angle going: Raced back in February with a 96 after an 18 month layoff, then ran 6 races below that with 5 in the 90s, then broke through with the 99.

race 10:
plus: 1,2,3,4,5,8,9,11,12
minus: 2,5,7,8
Best of these outside my top 4 is #11.
#5: CHRISTOPHER’S JOY is early-pace type with fastest pace numbers of this field. Also best jockey/trainer combo in Junior Alvarado, and Steve Asmussen (24%) ROI angle: This combo have one prior race together in the last 60 days, which they did win for return of 15.80.One of 8 early-pace types benefiting from track bias (see race 6).
#11 SPEECHLESS is another early-pace horse here. Moved from 71 to 79 lifetime best in last race, 3 weeks ago.
Updated analysis and more at my twitter thing: @radiocblue

Belmont Park 10/20/12 selections/analysis

New York Showcase Day at Belmont! I will cover 9 of the 10 races for you, featuring brief analysis of my top choice
The ‘plus-minus’ choices represent my level of confidence in a particular horse..The purpose of this angle is to bring in an extra contender in the event that one from my top 4 doesn’t figure in the finish.
Here are the top trends that figure on the plus side. Percentage totals are based on the week’s racing totals of what horses fit the particular variable, finishing first or second as a qualifier of that variable.
1: Win % at the current Belmont meet between jockey and trainer.
2: Absence of workouts since last race.
3:Fastest pace numbers to one’s run style of the field, based on last 3 races.
4: Best winning (or best overall) turf speed of the field.
5: (If race moved off the turf):Horses with best winning (or best overall Belmont track speed of field).

Worst trends:
Horses who are currently running under trainer who has reclaimed them.
Horses who must stretch from sprint to route race.
Horses who are exiting a losing speed duel in last race.
Horses in ‘explosive’ pace: slight peak in overall pace better than prior year’s best.

Now we’ll go race-for-race for selections.
I will update selections and plus-minus considerations here and on twitter at @radiocblue

Wager scheme goes outside of the above goes like this:
Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.

Race 1:

Plus: 8, 3
Minus: 11
MISS RUBYCUBES with 2 lifetime starts, both at Finger Links, both statebred stakes for fillies is a pure sprinter. She has best pace numbers of this field (first call numbers both in the 90s). Last race was the Rachel Alexandra, which she led by a length for most of the race, but weakened late in the 6 furlong effort to 3rd. Pace gain from 53 to 69, so a possible bounce down. ROI angle: trainer Jeremiah Englehart has saddled 70 2YO horses this year, with 16% wins, 49% in the money, for mild return of +2.03. Englehart has 11% wins in the autumn meet, combined with jockey David Cohen’s 38% win rate, makes this the best combo in the field.
Race 2: Iriquois Stakes
Plus: 3,2,1
Minus: 3,6 
I might opt to use 1-2 and 2-1 exacta here based on my ranking, regardless of odds.
AGAVE KISS has best track speed of winners on this track, coming out of a 2nd place effort in the Valor Lady stakes here on 10/3 and scoring a 103 Equibase number. She had led much of the race, and was just caught in the final 1/16th to lose by a neck. One of two horses who will benefit from track bias. Sprinters running 7 furlongs on dirt this meet are winning 40% of the time, and 50% this week. Also with fastest overall pace (first call numbers range from 94 to 105). Possible bounce as she moved from 97 to 103 overall pace.

Race 3:

Plus: 2, 12, 5
Minus: 2,3,5,7 
PRIME DEVIL with 3 maiden starts, last one at 57k level, has best track and turf speed of the field, scoring an 84 lifetime best in last race 9/29. He ran a game effort leading much of the 8.5 furlong race but lost by 3/4 lengths. Might bounce as he gained from 77 to 84.
Race 4:
Plus: 2,4,5
Minus: 2,3,4,6,7,9 
Building confidence in #5, ISN’TSHEWONDERFULL who has best jockey/trainer combo in Joel Rosario (16% wins) and Barclay Tagg (19%). Will certainly use between 2 and 4 for exacta and possible win.
Top choice tho is A PRETTYDIXIE. This 2YO filly with 3 starts, all at Belmont, running amongst other statebred fillies. Has best track and off-track speed of this field. A sprinter with fastest pace numbers in the field, who led a good portion of her last race over muddy going, tho was 2nd by a long distance in the stretch. ROI angle: Trainer Patrick Kelly has saddled 16 horses who were making their 2nd route appearance. Result is 13% wins, with 25% in the money, for return of +3.13.

Race 5:

Plus: 1,4,6,7,9,14
Minus: 9,12 
Lots of contenders for sure here. Extra confidence given to these 2. #1, LAILA’S JAZZ with no works since her last race on 9/27 here. #6 GOODTOLOOK with no works since last, here on 10/7. Might use for outright win or under favorites between the plus candidates (excepting #9) Top selection is #4, WEEKEND HIDEAWAY. Best off-track performance in the field, a 101 score breaking his maiden at Saratoga. Fastest pace numbers in this field (2nd call numbers ranging from 94 to 100)
I’m skipping race 6

Race 7: Ticonderoga Stakes

Plus: 1,2,4,6,9 
Minus: 5,9,11 
Extra confidence placed upon #2 and #4. #2 is FREEDOM RINGS who shares best turf speed overall (101) with #6 GITCHEE GOOMEE #4 is DREAMING OF CARA, who has no works since last race here on 10/7. Could use as straight win bets or favorites between the other plus horses excepting #9. GITCHEE GOOMEE is a pure closer with best stretch drives of the field (last 3 stretch call numbers are 123, 106, 91). This mare also has fastest Belmont speed among winners here. She scored a 101, finishing 2nd in the Beaugay during the spring meet.

Race 8: Joseph A. Gimma Stakes

Plus: 3, 10, 12
Minus: None
#12, MATCHMADEINHEAVEN had no works since last race on 9/29. One of 5 horses who will benefit from track bias. Horses from post position 8 and beyond in races on dirt for 7 furlongs are winning 17% this meet, and 25% this week. #10, Julesco will definitely get used in exactas, maybe win bet, with 3 and 12. #3 is GEE LINZ, from 2 lifetime starts, has 2nd call numbers of 89 and 97 and is fastest of this field. Also has best trainer/jockey win % combo, Javier Castellano (23% wins), and David Jacobson (33%).

Race 9: Empire Classic
Plus: 1a, 3,4,5
Minus: None.
#4, HALDANE, will be used with the others selected here for certain. This filly has has no works since last race on 10/5. Forged lifetime best 2 races back, a 95 earlier in the autumn meet. Put up an 84 last time, so might bounce positively this time. #5 BIGGER IS BETTOR deserves another look, also with no works since last race on 10/4. ROI angle: Jockey Wilmer Garcia has worked with trainer Rodrigo Ubillo in 14 races in the last 60 days, getting 2 wins and 6 in the money, for return of +5.41. Top choice is FIDDLERS AFLEET who forged and then paired up new lifetime score of 102 last 2 races, both statebred stakes races. Best jockey/trainer combo in field (see race 8).

Race 10:
Plus: 1a, 9, 11
Minus: 1a, 2,6,9,11
No real confidence in these selections outside of my top selection, #1a, STRONG IMPACT. This 6YO has best track and turf speed of the field, along with having fastest pace numbers and the best jockey/trainer combo in Castellano and Bruce Brown (25% wins). Absolute lock.

Belmont Park 10/13/12 selections/analysis

As you know I look at horses who are exacta-worthy to wager on. I measure those who have scored 1st or 2nd in the most recent races in the week to determine the trends going into Saturday’s action. With are the top trends that performed in the last 5 racecards at Belmont:
Track bias, measuring both run style and post position
Turf: Best winning turf speed in field
Absence of workouts before today’s race
Highest combined win % between jockey and trainer during the meet.

Worst 4:
Horses in exploding form (horses pushing past last year’s best speed rating by a few ticks in the last 60 days, 90 if 4YO+)
Distance bias: Horses moving up from sprints to routes here.
Horses in recovery: Horses with layoff who drop in speed from first race after layoff then equal or exceed the first race score (measuring horses in last 60 days, or 90 if 4YO+)
Positive ROI angles above +2.00 for jockey or trainer.

What I’m considering doing is building confidence on horses based solely on plus/minus of these particular angles. Whoever has the best scores will get bonus consideration or elimination, while still considering them in the top 4 selections.

Wager scheme goes outside of the above goes like this:
Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.

Watch for my selections and +/- picks here and on Twitter at @radiocblue

race 1: 1-5-4-7 LURE OF THE SOUTH has best Belmont and turf speed of this field, forging new lifetime top of 86 in last race on 9/27. Also has best score on an off track (today’s turf is rated currently as ‘good’), an 85 scored in the spring meet (that track was muddy) Moving from 80 to that 86 in last 2 races, he might bounce.
Plus: 1,5,7 (best), then 4,8,10,11,12
Minus: 8,7, then 13 (worst)
I’d concentrate on horses 1 and 5.

Race 2: 5-6-7-12 BAKIN’ WITH CINDY with best winning Belmont and turf speed. She got these back to back in the spring meet with scores of 83 and 89. One of several pure closers that can benefit from track bias. Closers going 8.5 furlongs on the turf are winning 30% during the autumn meet, and 67% this week. For an ROI angle, jockey Eddie Castro has teamed with trainer Rudy R Rodriguez for 3 races in last 60 days, winning 2, for a return of +4.07

Plus: 5,6,7,12 are best, then 1,3,8,9 
Minus: 5,7,8,12
Concentrating on 5,6,7,12, tho bullish on 6.
race 3: 1-6-4-3 MISSILE NICK has best jockey/trainer combo in Jose Ortiz (11% wins) and Thomas Bush (20%). ROI angle: Missile Nick adds blinkers. Bush has readded blinkers to horses in 7 races, winning 1, for overall return of $2.31.
Plus: 1 is best, then 2,3,4,6
Minus: 1,3
Concentrating on 1
race 4: 3-5-8-7 TERMINUS with best track speed from last race, a 92 on 9/29. Moving from an 83 in prior race to that and forging lifetime best, could bounce.
Plus: 5, 8
Minus: 6,5,8
No concentration on pick, sticking with top 4.

Race 5: 5-2b-1-1a MUDFLATS has best track speed in only lifetime start, an 82 on 9/15. He is the lone reported sprinter in the field. Sprinters running a mile on the dirt during the meet have won 55% of the races, and 75% this week.

Plus: 2b, 5
Minus: 1, 1a, 2b, 5.
No concentration on picks, sticking with top 4
race 6: 8-4-2-6 GREELEY’S LAW is a longshot but top choice for me. His best winning track speed here is 89, scored in the spring meet. In recovery mode right now: He had been on 2 month layoff before recording an 86 at Saratoga, then dropped to 76, then up to 91 on 9/1, then an 80 back at Belmont on 9/15. The necessary off race suggests a bounce back. That 91 race is his lifetime best mark. ROI angle: Jockey Edgar Prado has teamed with trainer Glenn DeSanto for 6 races in last 60 days, winning 1, for overall ROI of +16.33.
Plus: 4,2
Minus: 8
Yes, I’m cautious on the 8, so I’d roll with 4 and 2 with confidence.
Race 7: 1-6-5-3 LA CLOCHE has best winning track speed, a 99 in an ungraded stakes race during the spring meet 3 races back. Gets dual help with track bias. Closers running 8.5 furlongs on turf are winning 30% of the time during the meet, and 67% this week. Also: horses in first 3 posts are winning 13% for the meet, and 22% this week. Fastest horse in the field: last 3 late-pace numbers are 108, 97, 104. Also best jockey/trainer win % combo in Junior Alvarado (23%) and James Toner (20%)
Plus: 1 is best, then 6,2,3 
Minus: 6,3 
I’d focus on 1 and also 2, Ruthenia, who has early post and track bias edge.

Race 8: 4-2-10. That’s it. TIE DYE in 2 lifetime races has best track and turf speeds here, an 85 run on 9/9 with an outside run facing 11 other horses, yielding track, good kick home in stretch. ROI angle: Prado teamed with John Kimmel in 2 races in last 60 days, winning 1, for return of +2.80.
Plus: 4,10
Minus: 4.

Well, I do like 10, Never Touch A Star, who has best jockey/trainer combo in field, so nothing extra to add.

Race 9: Knickerbocker Stakes: 2-3-5-4 SKY BLAZER with best track speed, 1 105 scored in an allowance race during the spring meet. Track bias edge too: He will get rail trip today. Horses in 9 furlongs on turf have 40% of those races on the rail, and the only such race run this week. Also, late-pace horses of this distance and surface have won 40% of the time, and won the only such race this week. Last 3 overall pace numbers are 92, 102, 105, fastest of the field. Also has best jockey/trainer combo in Cornelio Velasquez and Barclay Tagg.
Plus: 2 over 3
Minus: 4,5

No change in my strategy.
Race 10: 8-5-12-2 PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL has fastest speed on an off track, a 96 scored earlier in his career. This early-pace horse is fastest of the field, with 2nd call numbers of 91, 83, 96 in last 3 races. Might bounce going from 78 to 91 overall pace in last 2. No works since that 91 race from 9/30. Also has best jockey/trainer combo in Junior Alvarado (23%) and David Jacobson (41%)
Plus: 8 is best, then 2,3,5,6,12 
Minus: 1,6,12, then 7 (worst)
Roll with 8,5,2 as usual here, but also 3, who also did not have works since last race on 9/29.

See you on twitter for more at @radiocblue