2012 Breeders Cup day 1 selections

(Edited 105pm ET to include latest changes)
And here we are. A year after a rather successful run of handicapping, at least from the major-race standpoint. I aim to follow up this up with even more winnings for the big Breeders Cup two-day event.

I studied the last 8 racecards, including yesterday’s races. Top 4 winning trends among my variables include these:
*Horses stretching from sprint to route.
*Horse identified as having fastest Equibase numbers in last 3 races, per run style.
*Horses identified as recovering in form. I calculate this by studying how the horse’s overall pace varied since last layoff.
*Horses receiving positive value from track bias during the meet and the week, divided by both post position and/or run style.
Worst 4 trends:
*Horses with identifiable ROI angle via jockey or trainer
*Horses under reclaim
*Horses who forged lifetime best figure in last 60 days ages 2 or 3. Older, 90 days.
*Horse identified as having fastest winning or overall best turf speed in field.

I will NOT be updating you all on twitter for the 2 day event but I will be editing these blog posts when scratches/changes occur. This will likely be finalized at about noon Eastern time.

Here’s how I will be wager. I WILL be wagering actual $ this time:

*Wins on horses going off worse than 5-1 in my top 4.
*Exactas between the horses in my top 3.
*If my 4th selection goes off worse than 9-1, place win bet on that horse, then place my top 3 PLUS any horses under 4-1 over my 4th selection in exacta.

Plus/minus will measure the horses that fall outside my top 4 selections to suggest the horses that may be worth a few more $ to play. The most sensitive areas are these: If the 4th selection is involved in the strong side of the plus/minus, I may use that in exactas more so with other strong horses and favorites, regardless of odds.
Also: Any horses who are strong and outside of the top 4 and better than 5-1 will definitely be used as win. I might combine strong horses with each other for exactas, and also under favorites if they come at large price.
Race 1: 5-4-11-13
Plus: 4,5
Minus: 2,9,11,12
#5 GOD OF WAR has 9 lifetime starts, beginning in Brazil, then adapting to West Coast racing. Just one race at Santa Anita, his last race, which was one mile on this turf. He won with a 94 Equibase number, top score on this track’s surface of the field. Further he has fastest overall pace numbers (2nd call numbers in last 3: 111,90, 103) He might bounce, as he increased from score of 85 in race prior to last. 20-1 morning line, could be value here.

Race 2: 1-10-4-3
Plus: 1,8,9,10
Minus: 2,4,3,6.
#1 AMY’S OUTBURST is an early-pace type will benefit from track bias: Horses of this style running 6.5 furlongs have won 38% of races this meet, and 1 of 2 this week. Only horse in field to have entered speed duel in last race and lost, actually losing 3rd late in a 6 furlong effort after leading through much of the race. Possible bounce: she moved from 77 to 89 overall pace in last race, also setting lifetime best number. That 89 score represents a recovery number as well. After 8 month layoff and trainer change to Kathy Walsh, she ran an 80, then the 77, then 89.
I’m also giving horses #8 and #9 opportunity for score via plus/minus. #8, MY BRITE CAROLINE, and #9, MAGICAL BRAND, are 2 of the other 3 horses who also have the early-pace style which will work to their favor here.

Race 3: 10-2-1-6 
Plus: 1,2,3
Minus: 1,4,11
#10 SOLAR ROCKET is 3 of 6 lifetime on Santa Anita’s main track, with best winning score in the field here, a 103 back on 3/24. In last race at 6.5 here on 10/19 he led much of the race, lost a real battle to finish ahead, held 3rd place. Moved from 65 to 92 in that race. No works since that 10/19 race.

I will also use #3 for extra value. PRIDE OF SILVER can be helped by track bias: Closer-type horses have won 2 of the 4 races this meet run at 7 furlongs on dirt.
Race 4: BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE SPRINT.
3-1-4-6
Plus: 3
Minus: 1,3,6
Not a very wagerable race the way it looks, especially with my top choice, #3 being morning line favorite. MERIT MAN, has won both lifetime starts. Shares best winning speed on track, scoring 98 in last race. Fastest pace numbers in field (2nd call numbers are 101, 100). ROI angle: Jockey Patrick Valuenzuela teamed up with trainer Robert Hess Jr on 3 races in last 60 days, winning 2 (this is likely based on Merit Man’s 2 wins), for ROI of 14.73.

Race 5: BREEDERS CUP MARATHON
1-14-3-10
Plus: 1,4,5,6,7,10,11
Minus: 1,5,7,8,10,11,14
ATIGUN has fastest pace numbers (last 3 stretch call numbers for this closer: 99, 91, 114). Moved from 101 to 108 overall place in last race, forging new lifetime best. 
I’m willing to bring #4,6 and #7 for extra value. All 3 can benefit from track bias. Looking at all horses running dirt route races this meet, 16% winners come from posts 4 through 7, along with 19% during the week. With 3 runners beyond 3 or 4 more to factor in, this could get complicated to wager.

Race 6: BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF. 16 entered, not all running of course.
13-1-8-2 
Plus: 1,3,10,12, 13, 15„8
Minus:6,5,8,9, 4, 11, 13
#13: FLASHY WAYS is 2 for 2 lifetime. Fastest winning track speed of these, a 91 in last race.Fastest overall pace, too (overall pace numbers are 89 and 91). ROI angles: Jockey Joe Talamo has worked 1 race with Richard Baltas in last 60 days, scoring that 1 win for 14.40 return. Also: Baltas is 2-for-2 in saddling 2YO horses this year for return of 18.40. This jockey/trainer combo is best in the field (Talamo 22% wins, Baltas 2-for-2).
I’d bring in as many as 6 horses that have extra value. #1 KITTENS POINT is the one reliable horse to benefit fom track bias. On turf miles during the meet, horses set on the rail have won 14% of races, and 20% this week. Horses #3, 10, 12, 15, 15 and 16 are all stretching from route to sprint.

Race 7 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES:
Plus: 8-1. 3,6,7 I like equally
Plus: 1,8
Minus: 1,3,5,6,7
#8 KAUAI KATIE is undefeated in 3 career starts. Lost after 35 starts but maintian smoke status. Benefits from track bias: In 15 races going 8.5 furlongs on dirt, horses from the #8 post and beyond have won 21% during the meet, and won all 3 such races this week. Stretches from sprint to route here. Also with fastest pace numbers of the field (last 3 2nd call numbers are 99, 99, 105). Best jockey/trainer win % combo in Rosie Napravnik (1 of 4), and Todd Pletcher (1 of 2)
Race 8: BREEDERS CUP FILLY & MARE TURF:
9-1-then 2 or 4 (I’ll take whoever has worse odds at post time)
Plus: All except 10
Minus: 1,8,9,10, 11.
#9: MARKETING MIX is identified with fastest winning speed on this track (99 in last race, 9/29), and fastest on turf overall (105 at Woodbine, 7/28). Overall best pace numbers of the field (pace numbers 99, 102, 105). Best jockey/trainer combo in field: Garrett Gomez 22 % wins, Thomas Proctor 25% wins).
3,6,7,12 should also be brought in for extra value. I’d probably keep it simple and go for straight win bets since there are more than a few to factor in still. Track bias will help each of these (3,6,12 have ideal run style, while 7 has advantageous post position)

Race 9 BREEDERS CUP LADIES CLASSIC

8-5-2-1 
Plus: 1,2,5,6,
Minus: 1,3,7,8 
#8: LOVE AND PRIDE has fastest track speed winning the Zenyatta Stakes here on 9/29 with a score of 106. Set new lifetime mark in prior race to that, a 107 on 8/26 at Saratoga, winning the Personal Ensign. Still under influence of that race.

Bringing #6 for extra value to use, tho likely not much more. ROYAL DELTA will get track bias help….she is one of 4 early-pace type horses in the field. 1 other turf race was run at 9 furlongs during the meet, won by an early-pace type.
Race 10: Twilight Derby:
9-6-4-8
Plus: 6
Minus: 1-8-5-9
#9 HUNTSVILLE has fastest numbers at this track. Lost pace duel in optional claimer with a 94 last time out, 3 weeks ago. Was reclaimed by Barry Abrams in August, has run 5 races since, winning 2 and finishing 2nd last time out.