Enlightened Derby/Oaks Trail update: Stakes action at Zia Park

Across gorgeous cloudy periwinkle blue Oho skies I travel Greyhound for the next levels of my journeying.    And, likewise the Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trails are in Zia Park in NM.

First is the Governor’s Cup, for 2YOs, going 6 furlongs, 55k purse.
Here are the contenders:
1 FORGE AHEAD FRANKI broke maiden 2 races back in August stretching to 5.5 furlongs. The single horse in the field who can repeat a win from such a move. Also it’s been 6 weeks since his last race…so he’s probably the freshest of those stretching out.  Considering race shape he is one of several stalker types that can succeed. Odds: 7/2. My odds: 6-1. Contender.
2 SKY T won the province-bred CTBA Futurity, 40k 2 races back, then was 5th in the Gold Rush Futurity. Appears to be the class of the field.  On the bench since mid-August, but that should not be concern, since he did win his maiden debut.  4 works at Zia since last race, 2 fast, one a bullet, all breezing. Odds: 4-1.  My odds: 12-1.  Dark horse.

3 SMUDGE was 2nd and 3rd in 2 ungraded stakes events last time out. This stalker is truly the speed of the field, especially with the way the race shape looks…2 sprinters, 4 stalkers.  Odds: 3/1. Me: 12-1. Dark horse.
4 PLASKA won his maiden debut, then was 7th in 20k allowance company in late August. That last race and today’s race are being run on layoff.  With a middle post, I’d hope he’d run with a comfortable spot and score like that 78 Brisnet today.  Working out at Retama with 2 bullet works.
Odds: 6-1. My odds: 10-1.  Outsider.
5 PAIN AND MISERY  graduated at 24k maiden level last out, here a few weeks ago. Best AWD numbers from his pedigree (Bob and John/Singing Doe, by Running Stag). His lone race here was a good trip, and a 77 Brisnet effort, best on Zia of this field as well as for the distance.  Odds: 5/2. My odds: 7/2.  Contender:
6 TRIBAL ECHO finally broke maiden in 6th try, here at Zia and first time off claim. Also posted a 77 Brisnet here at Zia last time out, decidedly his best effort.  Has best jockey/trainer combo of the field (Enrique Gomez 21% wins, Bart Hone 39%). Forging the 77 score after much lesser scores in his career suggests he is truly in much better hands.  Odds: 5-1. My odds: Better than 2-1. Favorite, possibly the one overlay here.
Top 3:
6 Tribal Echo
5 Pain and Misery
1 Forge Ahead Franki
Following this is the EOT Trail representative race at Zia, that being the Permian Basin Stakes. 2YO fillies going 6 furlongs.
1 COLINDA DAWN impressed in graduating last time out, wiring a field by 10 lengths over 5 furlongs at Albuquerque.   Trainer Ty Garrett has 3 wins and 10 placings this year with horses who are making their  2nd start off layoff, for a 7.12 ROI.  Forged an 82 Brisnet in that big race.  Track bias in her favor: Sprinters going 6 furlongs this meet are winning at the rate of 41%. Horses on the rail, 23%. Odds: 6/1. My odds: 9/2.  Outsider.
2 SKIM THE RAIL is the lone closer of the field.  Winner of the Manzano Stakes at Albuquerque last time out, good for 100 EOT points.  72 Brisnet from that race is best for the distance of the field.   Top jockey/trainer combo aboard: Elvin Gonzalez (22%) and Justin Evans (21%). Forged pair of better races with a 70 and 72 in last two.  Considering race shape,  he has a certain advantage, given all the speed upfront. Switches back to regular jockey  Elvin Gonzalez).  Odds: 5-1. My odds: 7/2. Contender.
3 EXIT WEST has wired fields of 5.5 and 5 furlong races in her 2 lifetime races.  Last out, 6 weeks ago,  scored an 83 ahead of her debut at 74.  Great work tab at Remington Park, 4 in all, one very fast. Up in class from the 30k allowance race last out, and stretching out again from 5.5 to 6. Ships from Remington as well.  Might repeat her 83 Brisnet victory here. Steve Assmussen certainly has strong intentions for her. Odds: 7/2. My odds are in agreement. Contender.
4 BROKEANLOVINGIT has best AWD numbers in this field. Wired field in her maiden debut race here with an 80, best of the track of this field.  Odds: 10/1. My odds: 20-1. Best to avvoid.
5 ROUSANNE won her maiden effort, and has not done all that well in stakes company. Forged lifetime best of 70 last time out in a 25k allowance race for fillies.  Possible bounce risk here. Odds: 8-1. My odds: 7/2. Contender, maybe overlay
Top 3 I have very close together but I see it like this:
3 Exit West.
2 Skim The Rail
5 Rousanne

Men’s final, Wimbledon 2013 analysis

Born some 1300 miles and one week apart, the top 2 seeds in the gentlemen’s draw do battle at the game’s most prestigious tournament.
Andy Murray is, of course, the UK’s great hope, He had not dropped a set until the quarterfinals, and that day saw him comeback 2 sets down to triumph.
Novak Djokovic, world #1, hadn’t dropped a set himself until the semifinals, going the distance vs Juan del Potro.
Here’s a head-to-head and biorhythmic look at the matchup:

This is the 19th meeting, the first taking place in 2006,  which was the ATP Masters in Spain. Djokovic has a match record of 11-7 overall, with a set advantage of 27-21. He managed to score the only bagels (6-0 score) between them. This happened twice early in their matchups.  Tiebreaks are split 5-5 between them. They’ve gone to a 5th set 3 times, twice in the Aussie Open, once at Forest Hills.  Currently, Djokovic has won 7 of the last 10 sets, and the last 3 matches.  This is their 2nd meeting on grass, a matchup Murray won 7-5, 7-5, enroute to a gold medal victory at the London Olympics.
I have interest in picking out some stats from the head-to-head stats to find any trends that seem to present themselves:

1st serve: Novak in wins has ranged 44-68% in wins, 57-68% in losses.  Murray 66-71% in wins, 41-63% in losses. There’s a very clear demarcation line there, needing to get the first serve in better than 63%.

1st serve pts: Novak ranging from 66 to 83% in wins, 53 to 75% in losses. Murray in match wins has led this category with 69-85% range, and 50-79% in losses. So for Novak, he needs to get  beyond 75%, and Murray beyond 79%. 

2nd serve pts: In wins, Novak has a range of 44 to 68%, with 29 to 71% in losses. Some overlap there.  For Murray, his range in wins is 47 to 62%, with 25 to 58% in losses.Loo ks like Murray needs 59% then to win in this category. 
Break points saved: Novak in wins has a range of 57-100%, with 16-80% in losses, so he must save at least 80% to guarantee a win. Murray in wins ranges from 50-66%, with 37 to 75% in losses.

1st serve return points: Novak in wins ranges from 28 to 50%, and 15 to 44% in losses, so he must get past 44% for a win. Murray in wins ranges from 32 to 46%, and 16 to 36% in losses, so we know Murray must get past 36%.

2nd serve return points: Novak in wins ranges from 45 to 69% and 37 to 75% in losses. Murray: 48-70% in wins, 28-62% in losses.

Break points converted: Novak in wins: 25-62 %. Losses: 33-50%   Murray: 45-80% in wins, and 0-83% in losses.

Total service points won: Novak is 57-73% in wins, 46-59% in losses.  Murray: 57-70% in wins, and 40-67% in losses. So Djokovic needs at least 59%, Murray 67%.

Total return points won: Novak is 32-59% in wins in this category, and 29-42% in losses. Murray: 40-54% in wins, 26-42% in losses. So both players needs 42% or higher in this category.

Hopefully there’s some good trends here for you to follow.

As for biorhythms:

These two weeks have been rather interesting for the #2 seed. Started tournament on a triple low, just easing out of it with a mental critical day 1 day in, while sweeping round 1. On July 3, he   had the physical critical day, coinciding with the grueling 5-set match in the quarterfinals, with the mental game all the while as strong as it ever has been for him.  Emotional critical day fell during the semifinals match (remember his plea to keep the game going minus roof without delay after 3 sets?).  Now he’s in a triple high period and he should be at the top of his game.


Novak started the tournament with supreme athletic ability and passion, not dropping a set until the semis. Went through a double critical day, affecting him in rounds 2 and 3 but you’d hardly notice that in the results.  Mental critical day came on 6/30, before his 4th round.  Since then, mental game has soared, and his passion has seriously waned, bottoming out 2 days ago.  His athletic ability is rather average but gaining only slightly.

Murray in 4 exciting sets. 


Stats: http://www.atpworldtour.com

Murray/Ferrer matchup in cycles, stats

Today in 30 minutes is the David Ferrer/Andy Murray final at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami, 3 sets on the hard stuff.

Murray has a 6-5 match edge, and 5-1 on hardcourt surface (losing only 2 sets in the process)
Here are the key stats:
Ferrer has consistently scored, even in losses in first serve %
2nd serve return points won %
break points converted %

As for Murray, his best stats against Ferrer are:
1st serve points won
1st serve return points won

So that first service success by Ferrer will be a vital stat for both players.

Average length of match: 2 hours, 19 minutes
Favorite Toy extrapolation method (thank you, Bill James): 2 hours, 33 minutes
(low: 70 minutes. high: 3 hours, 52 minutes)

Now to biorhythms. Here are Andy’s cycles:


Middle ground of two mini-highs and lows. May feel somewhat out of sorts today, feeling more negative than usual. Rather average cycles.

Here’s David Ferrer:

Triple high! Can’t be in any better shape than this.

Ferrer in 4 sets. 

2013 Australian Open men’s round of 16 (lower half)

Jeremy Chardy 

Brief triple high is over, on an emotional critical day, still under effect of mental critical. Not a good look. Going to lose some shots and challenges but his game is pretty strong otherwise.

#21 Andreas Seppi

You can’t get into any better situation than this one. Triple high with all cycles on the up and up. 
Straight set win for Seppi

#14 Gilles Simon

Absolutely weak here, challenges lost and errors by the dozen. Will have to rely on heart. 

#3 Andy Murray

Cycles are mixed, improving in all phases of the game, with triple high in 2 days. 
Murray in straight sets. 
#7 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

See Andy Murray’s cycles. Few errors, few double faults, brainpower at peak. 

#9 Richard Gasquet

Pure athletic ability very strong, might get a lift from the crowd but not terribly responsive. 
Best matchup of the 4 today. Tsonga in 5 sets. 
#13 Milos Raonic

General weakness here along with a looming physical critical day. Should have enough athletical ability to match shot for shot, even if stamina isn’t there. 

#2 Roger Federer  

 Physical critical day today, of all days. Blood on the court? Medical timeouts? For sure. Coming out of triple high, it will be at a minimum. Overall game still very strong, will surely out think his opponent. 
Federer in straight sets.  

US Open 2012 in biorhythms

Andy Murray (5/15/87) vs Tomas Berdych (9/17/1985)  in the men’s semifinals!

Here’s Andy’s chart first:

Cycles are nearly as high as they can be. 

Now for Berdych 

Not so robust for Tomas, who will make more unforced errors. His athletic ability is on a sharp downturn and will be lacking focus. Decision making at a nadir.
Murray in straight sets.