The Oaks Future Wager was the one I scored close
to $500 on, thanks to some solid picks that stuck
with me as others fell out of the actual Trail. Can I
score another upset?
I chose the top 7 horses from each category, then
ranked those with the most top-7 placements,
breaking ties as necessary.
Here are the benchmarks that were set in the Oaks
Combined AWD: 14.4
Best class: Grade 3
Best Churchill Downs BRIS: 78
Best Binomial Pace: 553, translating to a 92.
Longest distance win: 8.5 furlongs
8 horses had sufficient pace progress from 2YO to
I ranked 10 of the 23, with 2 in a virtual tie. I had to
break that tie based on the quality of the category.
Horse A has better AWD (or, breeding) stats, and a
faster run at the track.
Horse B has better back-class and faster pace.
Which one do you choose?
I’ll side with horse B, as pace is a better indicator of
future performance that stats regarding more
historical or inherent quality.
Here’s how I rank the 10 fillies:
10: Midnight Bisou was 2nd in her maiden debut at
Santa Anita, tho scored a 91 BRIS. Next was 2nd in
the 100k Desi Arnaz at Del Mar. Then she won the
Grade 2 Santa Ynez, and also the Grade 3 Santa
Ysabel (latter 2 at Santa Anita, and both with a 93).
I like the class, the great finishes, and the
consistent, fast numbers. Never raced prior to
Labor Day, doesn’ t match well in breeding.
9: Sassy Sienna is one of 4 fillies racing Saturday in
the Honeybee Stakes. Won her maiden debut at
Indiana Downs. 3rd in the PG Johnson at Saratoga.
4th in the Grade 1 Alcibiad Stakes at Keeneland.
2nd in a 62k allowance race at Churchill, removed
from turf, peaking at 87 BRIS, a fast number for this
field. Next, a 5th place finish in the Trapeze Stakes
at Remington Park. Then won a 62.5k optional
claimer at Oaklawn Park, and then nearly wired the
field last time out in the Martha Washington also at
Oaklawn. Good AWD numbers (Midshipman/Tap
for Gold, out of Pleasant Tap). Pace progress was
definite since her 3rd race. Class still in question,
pace has yet to breach 90, and she hasn’t won past
8: Red Ruby was Horse B in my example. Won her
2nd maiden race at 8.5 furlongs. Both races were at
Churchill, peaking at a strong 92. She then won the
aforementioned Martha Washington. Good AWD
numbers (Tiznow/Caroni, out of Rubiano. Caroni
herself is the dam of Beautician, who placed in
multiple stakes races. Rubiano himself was a
multiple stakes winner, many of them beyond age
3, tho never ran the Triple Crown races). Class is
good but she has yet to run in a Graded event. Pace
is a bit slow for the field of 23. Debuted in October. Will run in the Honeybee.
7: Caledonia Road is Horse A in the example above.
Won her debut at the 83k maiden level in Saratoga.
2nd in the Grade 1 Frizette, then won the Breeders
Cup Juvenile Fillies at 8.5 furlongs. Great pace
numbers of 98, 100, 89. AWD numbers a bit slow
for the field. No runs at Churchill. Debut came in
6: Paved took 3 tries to break maiden, and it was a
success with 100 BRIS at 9 furlongs. Then she
matched it with a 102, winning the 100k El Camino
Real Derby. Good AWD numbers: Quality
Road/Simione, out of Cozzene. No Graded stakes
entries, no runs at Churchill, debuted in October.
Next 5 horses scored in 4 of 6 categories.
5: Patrona Margarita won her maiden debut at
Churchill. 8th in the 100k Debutante. 3rd in the
Texas Thoroughbred Futurity. Won her Graded and
route race debut in the Pocahantas, back at
Churchill, with a lifetime best 88 and at 8.5
furlongs. It also represents great pace progress.
Watch that race here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDowwnwX–k
4th last out in the Rachel Alexandra, matching her
best effort. AWD and pace numbers still slow
compared to others.
4: Dream Tree is undefeated in 4 races. Won her maiden debut last October at Santa Anita. Won the 100k Desi Arnaz, the Grade 1 Starlet at 8.5 furlongs (94 BRIS), and the Grade 2 Las Virgiennes. Lifetime pace numbers range from 91 to 94. Great AWD numbers (Uncle Mo/Afleet Maggi, out of Afleet Alex). Might consider for wins if odds are
Watch her run of the Starlet Stakes here:
3: Coach Rocks has run 7 times as a maiden, finally breaking out with a 8.5 furlong win last time out and with a big jump in pace to 93. Best AWD numbers in the field (Oxbow/Mexican Moonlight, out of El Prado). Scored a borderline 78 BRIS at Churchill. Certainly her lack of class can be faulted as well as overall pace. But look at that maiden race winner:
2: Wonder Gadot won her maiden debut on Woodbine’s turf course last August. 3rd in the Grade 1 Natalma. 2nd in the Grade 3 Mazarine there also. 6th in the BC Juvenile Fillies on her dirt debut, with a small new top of 91. Won the Grade 2 Demoiselle at 9 furlongs, matching that speed figure. 2nd in the Silverbulletday, then 3rd in the Rachel Alexandra, with a 92. Good AWD numbers: Medaglia d’Oro/Loving Vindication, out of Vindication. Hasn’t run at CD yet, and pace numbers, tho consistent, are a bit low for this field.
See how she won the Demoiselle: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bjiFY2ZUGk
1: Monomoy Girl is highly regarded in the wager, and I agree, tho 5-1 ML might be low. Winner of 4 of 5 lifetime, his only blemish the Grade 2 Golden Rod, nearly wiring that field. He still managed his best race there at Churchill with a 99 BRIS. Won his maiden debut on turf at Indiana Downs. Won a 75k optional claimer race. Won the 80k Rags To Riches. Won the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra. Debuted only in September, and AWD numbers low for this field. Still she will be involved in my exactas, probably not for wins though.