Breeders Cup Classic 2017 prediction

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC, 10 furlongs, $6 million, 3YO+.

ARROGATE had that nice 7 win streak, capped by the Dubai World Cup. Since then, a 4th in the San Diego, and 2nd in the Pacific Classic. His 124 in last year’s Travers remains the best score for this field considering the distance. Prior winner off layoff. Considerable bounce risk given his increase of 16 in Bris last time out. One of two horses I’m forgiving for a wide or tough trip yet fast performance. Best turn time of the field…gained 1.4 seconds between last two races, :24.1 last race.
My odds: 6-1.
Prediction: Not in top 6
Winning pace: slightly slower than average overall.

War Decree debuts in the US, first time Lasix. Winner in GB and Ireland, twice at Graded levels. One of 2 horses who have created a small new top against last year’s best score. This was acheived last time out at Dundalk on 9/29.
My odds: 22-1
Prediction: 6th.

Win The Space with a pretty decent record running in Cali. 0-3 at Del Mar. Gained 4 lengths on the leader last time out in the Awesome Again…finished 3rd with 100 Bris.
My odds: none.
Prediction: Worse than 6th.
Winning pace: average throughout

War Story has prior win first off layoff.Winner of the Brooklyn 3 races back; prior win was back in January in the Queens Count on a good inner track at Aqueduct. Increased by 6 points to 98 last time out in the Woodward. Waiting now 8 weeks to stretch out another furlong. 5 works, 1 local, 4 very fast, 1 bullet.
My odds: 7-5. Overlay
Prediction: winner.
Winning pace: Slow at first call, average at 2nd.

Gun Runner: 1st or 2nd in every race since 9/16, 8 races in all, and 9 races with a triple-digit Bris. Prior winner first off layoff. He’s the other horse influenced by a small new top. 114 win last out in the Woodward, ahead of last year’s 112. Gained 7 points from prior, so he might bounce. Waiting 8 weeks to stretch out. :24.1 turn time last race.
My odds: 9-1
Prediction: 4th
Winning pace: slightly faster than average throughout.

Mubtaahij won the Awesome Again last time out..first win in nearly 2 years. Best AWD numbers in the field (Dubawi/Pennegale, out of Pennekamp). Splitted time between US and Dubai. Good consistent runs, 10 of 18 in the money.
My odds: Not considered.
Prediction: Worse than 6th.

Churchill has 7 wins in 12 races, debuts in the US with Lasix for the first time. No real competitive numbers or form to consider him.
My odds: 18-1
Prediction: 5th

West Coast is 8-6-2-0, winning this year’s Travers, PA Derby, Los Alamitos Derby, Easy Goer. 108 and 112 ahead of 96 amidst her last 3…possible bounce risk. Also lacks evidence to dominate in any one variable in this great field.
My odds: none
Prediction: worse than 6th.
Winning pace: slightly faster than average throughout.

Gunnevara 9 of 13 in the money, serious pro horse who ran 2nd in the Travers with big lifetime best of 109. Could be forgiven for a tough trip in that one, tho a big bounce risk. Prior winner first off layoff. Notably he’s the only deep closer in the field.
My odds: 18-1. Almost enough for an overlay pick.
Prediction: 3rd.
Winning pace: Average at first call, slow 2nd.

Pavel the least experience of these, but is 4-2-0-1, with a win in the Smarty Jones. Lifetime speed figures: 95, 96, 100, 108. Bounce risk considerable.
My odds: none
Prediction: Out of the top 6.
Winning pace: Very slow throughout.

Collected 11-8-1-0, winner of 4 straight. 111 lifetime best 2 races back. Last out 110 here in the Pacific Classic, best Del Mar race of this field. Prior first win off layoff. Easily the speed of the field, best pace pattern as well. :24.1 turn time last out.
My odds: 6-1.
Prediction: 2nd.
Winning pace: slightly faster than average throughout.

Top 4: 4-11-9-5
Overlays: 4, 9

Breeders Cup 2017 Saturday picks (minus the Classic)

Continuing now with the Saturday Breeders Cup card…
14 Hands Winery BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES, 8.5
furlongs, 2YO fillies, $2 million.
Top 3 are 7-13-9.. Moonshine Memories,
Separationofpowers, and Alluring Star. Overlays:
Caledonia Road, Blonde Bomber, Stainless. I figure
this race is more about the favored horses, and less
about value..but here’s what I am seeing:
Caledonia Road was 2nd in the Frizette with a 100, this
ahead of maiden debut of 89 over a sloppy track. Those
numbers are fastest of these. The Frizette trip was
slightly to very wide out late. This early closer had
very quick trips to rely upon to close.
Blonde Bomber took 5 tries to break maiden, then won a
75k stakes event with a nice 94. 5 straight gains in
pace. Waiting since 9/30 to stretch from 8 furlongs.
:24 turn time from last race.
Stainless was 3rd in the Schuylerville, then 4th in the
Adirondack, then 2nd in the Jessamin, debuting on turf
tdhen.
Most likely race thus far to produce favorites.

BREEDERS CUP TURF SPRINT, 3YO+, $1 million, 5 furlongs
on turf. Top 3: 3-6-10 Morning-line top 2 in Lady
Aurelia and Marsha. For 3rd I like Hogy. Overlays:
Stormy Liberal, Cotai Glory, Paquita Coqueta (AE).
Stormy Liberal twice has won first after layoff. Gained
a length on leader by 2nd call last time out.
Cotai Glory comes out of a pair of presumably lifetime
best speed figures.
Paquita Coqueta has shipping wins, a prior win on the
track, and gained a bit on the leader in her last
effort.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT, 7 furlongs, fillies/mares 3YO+,
for purse of $1000000, ”Top 3 are 4-1-11….Finest
City,Carina Mia, and heavily favored Unique Bella.
Overlays: Finest
City, Carina Mia, Highway Star, and Constellation.
Finest City has 15 placings in 19 races including the
Santa Monica and last years’ BC Filly/Mare Sprint. 102
in that BC race is fastest of this field for Del Mar.
Best turn time and turn time gain of the field too.
Carina Mia has wins in the Acorn and the Shine Again.
Was 2nd in a stakes race at Belmont 9/24, running a 96,
somewhat wide throughout.
Highway Star has 8 wins in 13 lifetime, including the
Gallant Bloom, the Ruffian, the Distaff and the Go For
Wand. Has several shipping wins, and switches back to
Angel Arroyo, regular rider.
Constellation has placed 11 of 12 races, won the La
Brea, the Phoenix, Ruthless and Furlough. Gained half
length on leader last time out, and worked out quite
well in prep; 5 works since last, 1 bullet.

 

FILLY & MARE TURF, 9 furlongs fillies/mares 3YO+, $2
million. Top 3: 10-5-13 Queen’s Trust (overlay),
Wuheida, Goodyearforroses (overlay)

Queen’s Trust has a decent record, but 2 wins in 13
lifetime, is the defending champion of this race. She
ran last year’s version at Santa Anita, nosing out a
win with a 109 Bris score. Frankie Dettori rode her to
victory, and is back in the saddle today. Has a prior
win while dropping 4 lbs in weight carried.
Wuheida makes her US debut after competing well across
Europe. Won her first 2 races, one a Grade 1 event in
France. Could be recovering well in pace, ever since a
nice showing first after layoff in July. Only filly to
be under influence of new small top (possibly a Bris
near 100 last two races). First time Lasix doesn’t hurt
either.
Goodyearforroses had a 3 win streak going through
March, then mixed results thereafter. Great AWD numbers
(Azamour/Guilia, by Galileo….notable Irish pedigree).
Proved best turn time of this field.4 works at sA, all
very fast, one a bullet.

SPRINT, 6 furlongs, 3YO+, $1.5 million. Top 3: 1-3-10
Calculator (overlay), American Pastime (overlay),
Imperial Hint. Totally going against favorites here.
Calculator was 2nd here last out in the Pat O Brien
with a lifetime-best matching 103. Owns prior win first
after layoff. Best turn time of this field.
American Pastime gained big in speed figure, 99 to 107,
coming out of older claiming company and into a Grade 3
event. Ran a bit slow at the beginning and was somewhat
wide in the Gallant Bob, but was fast enough to close
for 2nd. 2 bullet works.
Imperial Hint has 6 wins in his last 7, all convincing.
Good AWD numbers (Imperialism/Royal Hint, out of
Lahint). 111 last out is a new small top from his 2016
best mark.Definitely the speed of the field.

MILE, 3YO+, $2 million.
Top 3: 5-10-3 World Approval, Ribchester, Mr. Roary
(overlay). Om also an overlay here. Favorites likely
to win out here, so probably skipping this race.
Mr. Roary 0-5 at Del Mar. 4 works in prep, 1 at Del
Mar, 1 a bullet.
Om 16-19 lifetime in the money, and all 6 of his runs
at Del Mar. Hasn’t won since December of 2015. I am
banking on his works too…4 in prep, 2 bullets.

JUVENILE, 8.5 furlongs, 2YO colts/geldings, $2 million.
Top 3: 12-7-1 Hollywood Star, The Tabulator, US
Navy Flag. All 3 are overlays.
Hollywood Star won his debut vs maidens, 2nd in the
Saratoga Special, 2nd in the Iroquois, all with solid
pace numbers to each other. Gained nicely on the leader
last time out. 5 works, most of them very fast
including one local.
The Tabulator is undefeated in 3, including the
aforementioned Iroquois and the Prairie Gold Juvenile
(one of my Enlightened Trail races). Like Hollywood
Star, owns prior victory first after layoff. 5 works,
one local.
US Navy Flag is the lone European entry, with scores in
Ireland and England, 3 win race streak. Best AWD
numbers (War Front/Misty For Me, out of Galileo).
Appears to have the fastest speed figures. First time
Lasix for his US debut.

TURF, 12 furlongs, $4 million, 3YO+. Top 3: 3-2-10
Highland Reel, Bullards Alley, Fanciful Angel. Latter 2
are overlays, along with Cliffs Of Moher and Bigger
Picture. Could be a very tasty wagering opportunity,
with the ML favorite Ulysses scratched.
Bullards Alley comes out of an amazing 120 in his
Canadian International win; easily best numbers for
surface and distance. By default he must be the speed
of the field. Does he bounce?
Fanciful Angel began his career in Europe and Dubai,
with wins in both those continents. 3rd US race, having
finished 2nd in the Arlington Million and another Grade
1 event last out at Belmont 5 weeks ago. His run last
out was 107, but somewhat wide in his closing process.
Being that he gained well at 1st and 2nd call first off
layoff and claim, I must rank him high.
Cliffs of Moher makes his US debut, first time Lasix, a
win at GB and Ireland already. Best AWD numbers
(Galileo/Wave, out of Dansili). Only horse having to
recover from a bounce, and I think he will. One of 2
horses carries 122 lbs instead of the standard 126,
being a 3YO.
Bigger Picture 10 wins in 27 lifetime, runs pretty consistently overall. Won the United Nations in July with a 111, and the JB Conley with a 95 earlier this year. 6 works to prepare, 3 fast ones, 1 bullet.

Next post goes horse-for-horse in the Classic!

Breeders Cup 2017 (Friday) handicapping, picks..

Breeders Cup 2017 is upon us, with 4 big races, and 8
on Saturday. As usual, it’s a great handicapping
puzzle, with multiple distances, surfaces, and
international horses with vague pace/form info to rely
upon.

Here’s how I see Friday’s races:

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF, 1 mile on the Del
Mar turf track, for 2YO fillies, 1 million at stake.
Grade 1.
Top 3 are Capla Temptress, Happily and Madeline.
Overlay possibilities are Capla Temptress, Ultima D and
Madeline.
Capla Temptress is co-third choice per ML odds, winner
of the Grade 1 Natalma last time out, along with a
Grade 3 race at Newmarket prior to this. Winner first
off layoff, she had won her debut race at Chelsford
City on 6/21. 3 wins and 1 3rd lifetime. Slight bounce
risk with matching speed figures last two races
(adjusting for Racing Post ratings, converted to Bris).
4 works in prep, 1 at Del Mar.
Happily already one of the top 3 choices via ML, a
winner at the Graded level in France and Ireland.
Another grandson of Sadler’s Wells, responsible for a
great 10.4 AWD number. Best speed figure for turf, and
best pattern of figures overall.
Madeline is the big price horse among what will be
popular choices. Winner of 2 minor stakes events in GB,
stretches to route for the first time. I like the two
shipping victories, and prior win while cutting back
significantly in weight.
Ultima D won the Juvenile Fillies at Kentucky Downs
last time out, pairing up a lifetime best of 86 with an
85. Also owns a shipping win, and is waiting the
longest of these to stretch out (9/6). 5 works, 1
bullet.

BREEDERS CUP DIRT MILE, Grade 1 event, $1 million
purse, 3YOs +.
Top 3 are Practical Joke, Sharp Azteca and Iron Fist.
No overlays in this field.
Practical Joke 4th choice in the ML list with 6/1 odds.
Consistently running at the top levels of races, 10-
5-2-2 lifetime. Won the Dwyer first after layoff. One
of several horses carrying 123.
Sharp Azteca has won 7 of 14 lifetime, and has runs in
the 100s from his last 8 races, peaking at 113 in
February. Only pure sprinter in the field…may need a
slightly fast pace to win. 4 works, last one a bullet.
Improved in both of his 1st 2 calls in the Kelso, first
race after layoff.
Iron Fist is the longshot hope. Improved in 1st 2
calls last time out, first after layoff, in the
Governor’s Cup (9/24, Remintgton);

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE TURF, 1 mile on Del Mar’s turf
course, $1 millions for colts/geldings 2YO. My top 3
here are 11-3-10, Snapper Sinclair, Sands Of Mali, and
Flameaway. Those latter two I estimate as overlays.
Snapper Sinclair broke maiden at 83k level at Saratoga
on 8/14, then won a 350k stakes level 9/6 at Kentucky
Downs. Waiting since then to stretch out, he’s put in 7
works, 1 local, 2 very fast, include a bullet work.
Sands Of Mali won 2 of 4 lifetime at several GB tracks,
including a G1 and Class 5 level event. Via the Racing
Post information, he actually bounced last time out in
the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes, last of 12. First
time Lasix helps his cause.
Flameaway won his maiden debut, was 3rd in the Skidmore
at Saratoga, then 7th in the Iroquois, then 3rd in the
Bourbon, setting a 3rd straight noticeable gain in
speed rating. Best Bris pattern of this field.

 

BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF is the day’s feature, with top
fillies/mares 3YO+ going 9 furlongs, $2 million at
stake. Top 3: 4-6-3; Abel Tasman, Forever Unbridled,
and Mopotism (an overlay, as is Champagne Room)
Mopotism fared decently in her career, tho hasn’t won
beyond her maiden race. 2nd in the Santa Anita Oaks,
Island Fashion and the Las Virginnies. Peaked with 97
BRIS in her last 2 starts, the Grade 1 Cotillion and
Alabama. 4 works at Santa Anita, 3 of which were very
fast.
Champagne Room has a short and strong career, with wins
in the Remington Park Oaks and last year’s BC Juvenile
Fillies. Never worse than 4th in all 7. Only horse with
slight improvement over last year’s best mark (98 last
out in the RP Oaks).
In all 4 races, no real hope for any horse projected at
better than 4-1 to win.

Oklahoma Classics 2017 handicapping

I’m still in the back of the pack for
this year’s ThoroEnduro contest at
Remington Park, but am confident I will
outlast others and land on some good
value horses. Today is one such day to
catch up, as there is a 6-race day that
counts instead of the usual 3. Today is
OK Classics Night, with the best state-
bred horses competing in various
categories. Contest races are 4-7 and
9-10.

Race 4 is the OK Classics Lassie Stakes,
6 furlongs, 100k purse on a fast dirt
track. Top 3 here are 6-3-2: Talkin
Shannon, Annieruok and Cherokee Lass;
all three not expected to take much
money at all and should shock those
betting favorites. Projected overlays
include each of my top 3 selections,
along with Wimbledonbondgirl.
Talkin Shannon won her 2nd maiden race
here at the 42k level vs statebreds,
with a increase from 42 to 69 Bris. Only
early-presser type in the field.
AnnieruOK has the best turn time between
her two lifetime starts, :23 and :23.3,
plus that gain of .3. 74 Bris last out
facing 75k OC/nx2 fillies with a wide
and tough traffic trip. Best AWD numbers
in this field, courtesy of dam sire
Allawinir
Cherokee Lass has 4 starts, still a
maiden. Lifetime best of 60 set 2 races
ago, bounced to 55 last out as a first-
time Lasix recipient under similar
conditions.
Wimbledonbondgirl also a maiden did gain
in turn time despite downturn in speed
figure; carries just 114 today; small
gain vs leader last time.

Race 5: OK Classics Distaff. 145k for
fillies/mares 3YO+, 1 mile and 70 yards.

Top 3: 4-6-7; the highly favored Steel
Cut, then Another Bond Girl, and Sunday
Night Miss. Projected overlays: none.
Not the best race to wager, as my top 3
match the ML standard exactly. Sunday
Night Miss forged 5 straight new tops,
last out an 83 here on 9/15. Track bias
favoring sprinters (43% win rate for the
distance, plus 16% for posts 4-7).
Carries just 113 here, and is waiting
the longest to stretch out.

Race 6 is the OK Classics Sprint, at 6
furlongs for 3YOs+, 130k purse.
Top 3: 8-4-6 Johnny Whip, Star’s
Valentino, Mr. N; 2 longshots ahead of a
favorite. Projected overlays: Johnny
Whip, Star’s Valentino and Hunter’s
Humor. Good betting race here.
Johnny’s Whip has the best AWD numbers
via damsire Seeking The Gold. 101
lifetime best at the distance. 4 works
in prep, all at RP, all very fast.
Star’s Valentino is the lone early
closer of the field. The 8YO gelding
might need a slightly soft pace
throughout. :22.2 turn time last out,
with a 85 Bris, tho he ran 5 wide and
couldn’t maintain the speed.
Hunter’s Humor gained .8 in turn time
from his previous start. Carries just
117 here; waiting since 9/8 to stretch
from 5 furlongs.

Race 7: OK Classics Cup; 8.5 furlongs
for 3YOs+, 175k purse. Top 3: 2-1-9;
highly favored Shotgun Kowboy, value
horse Makin the Dough, and longshot
Phantom Trip. Overlays: Phantom Trip,
Makin the Dough, Suite Gossip.
Makin the Dough won the Will Rogers
Handicap, then was 2nd in a stakes race
here on 9/15, surging from 75 to a
lifetime best 85. I like that he did
this 1st race after layoff, with
improvements at each call.
Suite Gossip 2nd race since reclaim by
Brent Charlton, who is 0-19 at the meet.
Improved on leader last time out, he did
jump from 69 to 78 while going up in
class by 14k and switch from Houston to
here. Chances are Brent must see
something good in this horse.
Phantom Trip removes blinkers for this
race; 6-3-1-0 record at RP and is the
defending champion of this race.

Race 9 is the OK Classics Distaff. Top
3: 4-9-3…Okie Diva, Showtime Sis,
Mischievous Misty. Top 2 are overlays,
along with 6, Master’s Bouquet.

Okie Diva won last year’s Lassie here,
with lifetime best 81. Peaked 2 races
later with 92, bounced a 2nd time to 68
last time out. 6-2-3-0 lifetime,
carrying just 113 today. :21.4 turn time
last time out, a gain of 1.2 seconds
despite the bounce.
Showtime Sis’s best mark at RP was 96
last November, stil best of these.
Looked great first after layoff with
gain from 92 to 101 at 2nd call, overall
gain of 74 to 80 and half-length on
leader by 2nd call.
Master’s Bouquet with best AWD numbers
(Foreign Policy/Shhh Hush Hush, out of
Real Quiet). Prior winner 1st off
layoff. Exploded to lifetime best 86
from 76. 1st or 2nd at each call in the
last 4 races, competing vs maidens and
25k and 43k allowance runners. 4 works at RP since last, all very fast, 1 a bullet.

Race 10 is the OK Turf Classic; 8.5 furlongs for 3YOs; 130k purse. Top 3: 5-8-7: Charlie Webb, Ibaka, Perfect To Please. Overlays: Charlie Webb and Runandyrun.

Charlie Webb is the lone early closer here and may benefit from track bias: his run style has won 3 of 7 races at the distance. 2 works since the Red Earth here on 9/24, both fast, last one a bullet.
Runandyrun 3rd race under reclaim by Tyrone Shaw, 2 winners in 18 races. Both races at this distance have been won by closers and he’s the only other one in the race.

Ranwick picks for Everest Day 10/14

Being a bit of a rookie at Aussie racing, I noticed a lack of variables I’d normally use.  Without the benefit of Brisnet as the provider of stats, there was no info on run-style, track bias, or lifetime speed ratings to compare runners with.   Despite this, I managed to construct picks for 8 races….and here they are:

Race 1: 5-1   Zamex, Mercurial Lad.     Zamex bounced from 77 to 70 since a barrier trial. 76 at 7 furlongs lifetime is the best of these at the distance. Seems to have the fastest speed figures. Positive jockey switch to Tye Angland.

Race 2: 1-2   Two horse race on paper, and that’s how I see it…Santos over Spin here with no real $ to make this one interesting.

Race 3:  1-7-4  Regimen, Workdrinks, Sweet Deal.  ML top 3 also, so probably one to pass up.

Race 4: 6-8-7  After All That, Pumpkin Pie, Darts Away.   After All That 3rd in ML odds, best track score of the field, gained somewhat on the leader last time out. Positive jockey switch to Robert Thompson

Race 5: 4-8-9   Harper’s Choice, Oklahoma Girl, Pygmy.  Harper’s Choice co-3rd choice in ML.   Best pattern of speed figures, fast tough trip last time out. Also best for off-track and Ranwick.   3 2nds in 8 races lifetime here…is she due?

Race 6: 9-2-5  Cismontaine over favored Big Duke and longshot Havana Cooler.  Cismontaine has a bunch of equipment (gear) changes in prep. Gained a bit on leader despite late fade out.  One of my big longshot picks.

Race 7: 5-4-12   Kuro, Japonisme, In Her Time. 2 more longshots upfront.  Kuro with fastest pattern of speed ratings and fastest tough trip coming in.

Race 8 is the big one, the Everest.  top 3 are 4-3-5. Redkirk Warrior over Redzel and Clearly Innoncent.   Redkirk Warrior improved nicely first race after layoff, 104 to 112, and did well behind leaders at that.

 

 

 

Slight return from slight hiatus

It’s been too long between posts, what with my work schedule and other projects taking equal importance at this time.
I do owe you some updates, including the 2017 Fear Factor stat reveal, both batters and pitchers. I will likely take this slowly, 1 team a day until the final list can be posted and comparisons madeand reveal the stats as we go and provide a summary afterward.

Enlightened Trails continue to present a good deal of parity. This is normal as most of the smaller tracks are getting their races in, and the big ones come shortly, starting with the Breeders Cup races in November. After that race, I will hope to solidify the divisions for each track, and provide yet another summary. Hey, maybe even some handicapping of these races, which I do miss.
Lately I’ve done OK with handicapping in several contests. I play contests at DerbyWars (rather, did), TVG, and the ThoroEnduro contest at Remington Park. My next time wagering actual $ will be the two-day Breeders Cup races, and I do hope I can be off one of those 2 days to fully enjoy the experience.

Yahoo! Sports fantasy football has underwhelmed in all 5 weeks thus far, and I’m about middle of the pack in my 10-team live draft league  https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/888387/6

Enlightened Derby Trail spreadsheet is updated at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZMfIOPgnbXXmYUKlxStJ0K6sOwWPlPhsRNLyjeb5PMs/edit?usp=sharing

Oaks Trail update: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AeZ-2-yf2GW701zpzt-r62pzXQsxea4Km57h4sEunc/edit?usp=sharing

Enlightened Trails update (Lousiana Downs, Arlington Park)

Today’s Enlightened Trails take us to Arlington Park and Louisiana Downs. We’ll start at LaD and the Sunday Silence, an ungraded 1 mile race for 2YO colts, with a 60k purse. My top 2 here are High Providence and Smokin’ Truth (no confidence in picking 3) Smokin’ Truth and G’s Turn are the overlays.
Smokin’ Truth definitely will be my wiseguy selection. Winner of his maiden debut here on 6/14, he took 7 weeks off, ran 4 workouts, with 2 of them pretty fast. In the LA Cup Juvenile, first time vs state-bred, he started and finished among contenders, ending up 3rd, and matching his pace number in his debut. Of these 2YOs, he’s got the fastest ones of the field. Henry B Johnson is the trainer here, and he adds Lasix to this colt for the first time.

G’s Turn has run somewhat slower and only in maiden company. I like that he did run a pair of 3rds, and wound up with the best troubled trip coming into today’s field. I am taking out the money-line favored Sitting Bull, but will use over my overlays.

Next is the Happy Ticket, for leading 2YO fillies going 1 mile on the LaD turf course, also a 60k purse, also an ungraded race. Top 3 here are Frisco Girl, Lady O’Toole, and longshot/overlay Putsumdirtonit.

Putsumdirtonit won in her 3rd try vs 20k level maidens, the last one her debut vs state-breds and on a wet fast track. She scored a 59 BRIS.Track bias in her favor: in 17 turf routes, the majority (6) have won with her early/presser style. Also, the top posts in those races were the first 3.

Now to Arlington Park and the Arlington-Washington Futurity. This is for top colts going 7 furlongs for a 75k purse. My top 3 begin are all overlays in Captivating Moon and Ghaaleb’s Winner, followed by PR Radio Star. With the scratch of track 2nd choice Soul Of Discretion, I am going against the favored Barry Lee and setting up for a big score.
Captivating Moon enters with a single race and win, a nice 82 score vs 28k maidens here on 7/30 tho it was on the turf course. 4 works here in prep, 2 bullets.
Definitely better than 5-1 ML.
Ghaaleb’s Winner won his debut too, tho at Fairmount Park and vs 9k maidens and with a 66 score.
He is debuting on Lasix here. Track bias for 7 furlong races on the all-weather surface is kind to posts 8 and out (30% hit rate).
PR Radio Star edged out other contenders in The X and East Rand for my 3rd spot. I mainly like him because he had the fastest run of all horses coming in with some trouble in his last trip and no win. That race was here on 8/12, 5.5 furlongs

Finally there is the Arlington-Washington Lassie, for 3YO fillies going 7 furlongs, 75k purse. Top 3 here are Saucy At Midnight, Southampton Way, and Espressa. Overlays are Saucy At Midnight, Espressa and Bet She Wins. Can’t totally rule out favorite; be prepared for nice exacta payout.

Saucy At Midnight already has a win off layoff, so don’t expect rust. Her late closing style and outside plays into track bias. 5 works at AP, with 1 bullet.