Zen Factor baseball stats

The original post that begets the formula is here

2017 Batter/pitcher stats are being published, a team a day, until the results are complete, at my Google Drive spreadsheet

In the briefest description, Fear Factor is my stat that measures hitters by a simple combo of power and average statistics. It also measures the equivalent allowed by pitchers. In so doing, I attempt to answer the question “Who is the most dangerous and most balanced hitter at the plate in the game’s history, and in the game right now?”

The formula itself:
Fear Factor:
[PA – (BB + K + HBP) / PA ] x (SLG/BA)

The balance part is Bill James’ OV% (Percentage Of Offensive Value). 50% is the ideal target. Lower is for power hitters, higher for sacrificial lambs. Again it’s not my stat but it’s part of the mix:
% = H(squared) /AB / RC

I don’t marry these two stats, ultimately. I rank hitters in the two categories. Whoever has the highest rank in both comparatively is the most valuable, and most dangerous hitter among them.

The matrix of stats, the types of hitters, fall in this set of extremes:
High FF, High OV%
High FF, medium OV% (around 50%). These are the most ideal hitters.
High FF, low OV%
Low FF, high OV%
low FF, medium OV%
low FF, low OV%


PFF (Pitcher Fear Factor, patent pending) = BFP -{ (PA – BB – K – HBP) /PA } x (SLG/BA)      (SLG, BA allowed, that is)
The first multiple takes into account every PA, and subtracting every result
that resulted in no contact by the batter to settle the issue. This can be
referred to as Opposition Contact Average.
The second multiple is the Opposition Bases per Hit, a simple division
equation here, expressed as a whole number, to 3 decimal places.
Multiplying these 2 formulas to make the product PFF, as with FF for
batters, we come to a number, expressed as a whole number, and to 5 decimal
places that is the adjusted amount of opposing bases per hit. It is the
number of bases per hit that a pitcher allows per plate appearance if all
the batters made contact against him.  It favors the pitcher who keeps the
result to home plate and off the bases (more walks and strikeouts, and less
balls in play).
The best pitchers are those who are most capable of upping the strikeout total, or otherwise most likely to take away HR threats.
Since it’s the pitcher who initiates the action at the manager’s call, there is more control and evenness between the Bases Per Hit numbers, all with a range of 1.3 to 1.6, the plain difference between allowing singles and doubles. It’s the Opposition Contact Average that makes or breaks a pitcher, the number of times a batter fails to make contact in his plate appearance.
To this I added

I constructed a Pitcher’s Allowance of Runs Created, the pitcher equivalent of the hitters OV%:
Pitcher’s Allowed Runs Created (PARC):
[Hits Allowed (squared)/AB] /RC.

For purposes of this essay, I used the original RC stat and using what the pitcher alllowed:
[(BB +H) x TB]/(AB+BB)

With PARC, now we see the percentage of all runs allowed to be created by a batter, inclusive of extra base hits, divided into all opportunities.   Within this stat, we can see which pitchers are naturally likelier to allow singles more than doubles, and vice versa.

Generally the contact average is driving all the numbers, while the bases per hit stats helps hone in on that a bit, while the resulting number, PFF shows us the true power of the pitcher. The PARC number isn’t necessarily ranking players as much as its placing pitchers on a scale, with the most centered pitchers (closest to .500) in the center.  The pitcher you cannot figure how to beat is the pitcher you will lose to. If you know you can reliably beat a pitcher at the plate via the sacrifice or the longball, that pitcher is relatively weaker because of that known tendency.

Through the posts I made here I explain the matrix and provide historical samples.   Given more time and $, I can expand the current stats, which have gone unworked on.  And with more time, I have a theory that goes further down the rabbit hole a bit:   Can the FF and PFF scores, along with the OV% and PARC stats, present a truly enlightened batter-pitcher matchup?   Years ago, we learned about the matter of platoon via handedness. Then we evolved to study ground-ball and fly-ball types.  Now, we look at more inherent qualities that I believe I’ve successfully quantified in stats.  And with this info, I believe we can truly divide batters and pitchers promptly, and make the best predictive determination as to which batter has a pitcher’s number and vice versa.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s