Enlightened Kentucky Derby/Kentucky Oaks Trails

Here’s the 2017-2018 Enlightened Derby Trail
and the 2017-2018 Enlightened Oaks Trail

Final 2016-17 Enlightened Derby Trail results
2016-17  Enlightened Oaks Trail final results 

This page expands on the initial posts and introduces to you the concept of a better version of the KY Derby and Oaks trails. The point system is here to stay, and hopefully there is enough $ to keep the trails relevant so that owners can point horses on the right path. My version of the trails begin not with the major tracks in 1 or 2 hubs, but in small tracks in many locales.

Here’s how I put the Trails together: I first examined all races between July 1 and December 31 for 2YOs, and January 1 through 2 weeks before the Blue Grass Stakes. Using this 9.5 month scale, I take the track’s one best representative race that would fit on a Derby Trail.

Here’s the final results of the Derby & Oaks trails for 2014-2015

And here are the final results from the  2015-2016 trail:

2015-6 ENLIGHTENED DERBY-OAKS TRAILS

 

The top ranked tracks are those whose single best race that would fit is a Graded event for 3YOs. Unlike the real trail, which is top heavy with the points and locales, here each track gets their best representative. The points go to the top 4 finishers: 1000-500-250-125.

Next lower are the tracks where the best race that would normally fit on the trail is an ungraded race for 3YOs. Points are 500-250-100-50.

Next lower are tracks whose best races are Graded events for 2YOs. You can guess that the top race for 2YOs in the country is always at the Breeders Cup.  Points :250-100-50-25

Finally there are all the minor tracks, whose best race is ungraded for 2YOs. 100-50-25-10

I created geographic divisions based on the major hubs of the included tracks, with similar divisions between colts and fillies.

The top 4 point-getters from each of the 5 divisions  all gain entry into the Derby. I’ll also list those who fall outside out the top 20 and post who would be next in in case of defections.
Since the Oaks is maximized to 14 horses, I’d select the top 3 from each of the major divisions, and the top 2 from the minors.

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