Oklahoma Classics 2017 handicapping

I’m still in the back of the pack for
this year’s ThoroEnduro contest at
Remington Park, but am confident I will
outlast others and land on some good
value horses. Today is one such day to
catch up, as there is a 6-race day that
counts instead of the usual 3. Today is
OK Classics Night, with the best state-
bred horses competing in various
categories. Contest races are 4-7 and
9-10.

Race 4 is the OK Classics Lassie Stakes,
6 furlongs, 100k purse on a fast dirt
track. Top 3 here are 6-3-2: Talkin
Shannon, Annieruok and Cherokee Lass;
all three not expected to take much
money at all and should shock those
betting favorites. Projected overlays
include each of my top 3 selections,
along with Wimbledonbondgirl.
Talkin Shannon won her 2nd maiden race
here at the 42k level vs statebreds,
with a increase from 42 to 69 Bris. Only
early-presser type in the field.
AnnieruOK has the best turn time between
her two lifetime starts, :23 and :23.3,
plus that gain of .3. 74 Bris last out
facing 75k OC/nx2 fillies with a wide
and tough traffic trip. Best AWD numbers
in this field, courtesy of dam sire
Allawinir
Cherokee Lass has 4 starts, still a
maiden. Lifetime best of 60 set 2 races
ago, bounced to 55 last out as a first-
time Lasix recipient under similar
conditions.
Wimbledonbondgirl also a maiden did gain
in turn time despite downturn in speed
figure; carries just 114 today; small
gain vs leader last time.

Race 5: OK Classics Distaff. 145k for
fillies/mares 3YO+, 1 mile and 70 yards.

Top 3: 4-6-7; the highly favored Steel
Cut, then Another Bond Girl, and Sunday
Night Miss. Projected overlays: none.
Not the best race to wager, as my top 3
match the ML standard exactly. Sunday
Night Miss forged 5 straight new tops,
last out an 83 here on 9/15. Track bias
favoring sprinters (43% win rate for the
distance, plus 16% for posts 4-7).
Carries just 113 here, and is waiting
the longest to stretch out.

Race 6 is the OK Classics Sprint, at 6
furlongs for 3YOs+, 130k purse.
Top 3: 8-4-6 Johnny Whip, Star’s
Valentino, Mr. N; 2 longshots ahead of a
favorite. Projected overlays: Johnny
Whip, Star’s Valentino and Hunter’s
Humor. Good betting race here.
Johnny’s Whip has the best AWD numbers
via damsire Seeking The Gold. 101
lifetime best at the distance. 4 works
in prep, all at RP, all very fast.
Star’s Valentino is the lone early
closer of the field. The 8YO gelding
might need a slightly soft pace
throughout. :22.2 turn time last out,
with a 85 Bris, tho he ran 5 wide and
couldn’t maintain the speed.
Hunter’s Humor gained .8 in turn time
from his previous start. Carries just
117 here; waiting since 9/8 to stretch
from 5 furlongs.

Race 7: OK Classics Cup; 8.5 furlongs
for 3YOs+, 175k purse. Top 3: 2-1-9;
highly favored Shotgun Kowboy, value
horse Makin the Dough, and longshot
Phantom Trip. Overlays: Phantom Trip,
Makin the Dough, Suite Gossip.
Makin the Dough won the Will Rogers
Handicap, then was 2nd in a stakes race
here on 9/15, surging from 75 to a
lifetime best 85. I like that he did
this 1st race after layoff, with
improvements at each call.
Suite Gossip 2nd race since reclaim by
Brent Charlton, who is 0-19 at the meet.
Improved on leader last time out, he did
jump from 69 to 78 while going up in
class by 14k and switch from Houston to
here. Chances are Brent must see
something good in this horse.
Phantom Trip removes blinkers for this
race; 6-3-1-0 record at RP and is the
defending champion of this race.

Race 9 is the OK Classics Distaff. Top
3: 4-9-3…Okie Diva, Showtime Sis,
Mischievous Misty. Top 2 are overlays,
along with 6, Master’s Bouquet.

Okie Diva won last year’s Lassie here,
with lifetime best 81. Peaked 2 races
later with 92, bounced a 2nd time to 68
last time out. 6-2-3-0 lifetime,
carrying just 113 today. :21.4 turn time
last time out, a gain of 1.2 seconds
despite the bounce.
Showtime Sis’s best mark at RP was 96
last November, stil best of these.
Looked great first after layoff with
gain from 92 to 101 at 2nd call, overall
gain of 74 to 80 and half-length on
leader by 2nd call.
Master’s Bouquet with best AWD numbers
(Foreign Policy/Shhh Hush Hush, out of
Real Quiet). Prior winner 1st off
layoff. Exploded to lifetime best 86
from 76. 1st or 2nd at each call in the
last 4 races, competing vs maidens and
25k and 43k allowance runners. 4 works at RP since last, all very fast, 1 a bullet.

Race 10 is the OK Turf Classic; 8.5 furlongs for 3YOs; 130k purse. Top 3: 5-8-7: Charlie Webb, Ibaka, Perfect To Please. Overlays: Charlie Webb and Runandyrun.

Charlie Webb is the lone early closer here and may benefit from track bias: his run style has won 3 of 7 races at the distance. 2 works since the Red Earth here on 9/24, both fast, last one a bullet.
Runandyrun 3rd race under reclaim by Tyrone Shaw, 2 winners in 18 races. Both races at this distance have been won by closers and he’s the only other one in the race.

Ranwick picks for Everest Day 10/14

Being a bit of a rookie at Aussie racing, I noticed a lack of variables I’d normally use.  Without the benefit of Brisnet as the provider of stats, there was no info on run-style, track bias, or lifetime speed ratings to compare runners with.   Despite this, I managed to construct picks for 8 races….and here they are:

Race 1: 5-1   Zamex, Mercurial Lad.     Zamex bounced from 77 to 70 since a barrier trial. 76 at 7 furlongs lifetime is the best of these at the distance. Seems to have the fastest speed figures. Positive jockey switch to Tye Angland.

Race 2: 1-2   Two horse race on paper, and that’s how I see it…Santos over Spin here with no real $ to make this one interesting.

Race 3:  1-7-4  Regimen, Workdrinks, Sweet Deal.  ML top 3 also, so probably one to pass up.

Race 4: 6-8-7  After All That, Pumpkin Pie, Darts Away.   After All That 3rd in ML odds, best track score of the field, gained somewhat on the leader last time out. Positive jockey switch to Robert Thompson

Race 5: 4-8-9   Harper’s Choice, Oklahoma Girl, Pygmy.  Harper’s Choice co-3rd choice in ML.   Best pattern of speed figures, fast tough trip last time out. Also best for off-track and Ranwick.   3 2nds in 8 races lifetime here…is she due?

Race 6: 9-2-5  Cismontaine over favored Big Duke and longshot Havana Cooler.  Cismontaine has a bunch of equipment (gear) changes in prep. Gained a bit on leader despite late fade out.  One of my big longshot picks.

Race 7: 5-4-12   Kuro, Japonisme, In Her Time. 2 more longshots upfront.  Kuro with fastest pattern of speed ratings and fastest tough trip coming in.

Race 8 is the big one, the Everest.  top 3 are 4-3-5. Redkirk Warrior over Redzel and Clearly Innoncent.   Redkirk Warrior improved nicely first race after layoff, 104 to 112, and did well behind leaders at that.

 

 

 

Slight return from slight hiatus

It’s been too long between posts, what with my work schedule and other projects taking equal importance at this time.
I do owe you some updates, including the 2017 Fear Factor stat reveal, both batters and pitchers. I will likely take this slowly, 1 team a day until the final list can be posted and comparisons madeand reveal the stats as we go and provide a summary afterward.

Enlightened Trails continue to present a good deal of parity. This is normal as most of the smaller tracks are getting their races in, and the big ones come shortly, starting with the Breeders Cup races in November. After that race, I will hope to solidify the divisions for each track, and provide yet another summary. Hey, maybe even some handicapping of these races, which I do miss.
Lately I’ve done OK with handicapping in several contests. I play contests at DerbyWars (rather, did), TVG, and the ThoroEnduro contest at Remington Park. My next time wagering actual $ will be the two-day Breeders Cup races, and I do hope I can be off one of those 2 days to fully enjoy the experience.

Yahoo! Sports fantasy football has underwhelmed in all 5 weeks thus far, and I’m about middle of the pack in my 10-team live draft league  https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/888387/6

Enlightened Derby Trail spreadsheet is updated at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZMfIOPgnbXXmYUKlxStJ0K6sOwWPlPhsRNLyjeb5PMs/edit?usp=sharing

Oaks Trail update: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AeZ-2-yf2GW701zpzt-r62pzXQsxea4Km57h4sEunc/edit?usp=sharing

Enlightened Trails update (Lousiana Downs, Arlington Park)

Today’s Enlightened Trails take us to Arlington Park and Louisiana Downs. We’ll start at LaD and the Sunday Silence, an ungraded 1 mile race for 2YO colts, with a 60k purse. My top 2 here are High Providence and Smokin’ Truth (no confidence in picking 3) Smokin’ Truth and G’s Turn are the overlays.
Smokin’ Truth definitely will be my wiseguy selection. Winner of his maiden debut here on 6/14, he took 7 weeks off, ran 4 workouts, with 2 of them pretty fast. In the LA Cup Juvenile, first time vs state-bred, he started and finished among contenders, ending up 3rd, and matching his pace number in his debut. Of these 2YOs, he’s got the fastest ones of the field. Henry B Johnson is the trainer here, and he adds Lasix to this colt for the first time.

G’s Turn has run somewhat slower and only in maiden company. I like that he did run a pair of 3rds, and wound up with the best troubled trip coming into today’s field. I am taking out the money-line favored Sitting Bull, but will use over my overlays.

Next is the Happy Ticket, for leading 2YO fillies going 1 mile on the LaD turf course, also a 60k purse, also an ungraded race. Top 3 here are Frisco Girl, Lady O’Toole, and longshot/overlay Putsumdirtonit.

Putsumdirtonit won in her 3rd try vs 20k level maidens, the last one her debut vs state-breds and on a wet fast track. She scored a 59 BRIS.Track bias in her favor: in 17 turf routes, the majority (6) have won with her early/presser style. Also, the top posts in those races were the first 3.

Now to Arlington Park and the Arlington-Washington Futurity. This is for top colts going 7 furlongs for a 75k purse. My top 3 begin are all overlays in Captivating Moon and Ghaaleb’s Winner, followed by PR Radio Star. With the scratch of track 2nd choice Soul Of Discretion, I am going against the favored Barry Lee and setting up for a big score.
Captivating Moon enters with a single race and win, a nice 82 score vs 28k maidens here on 7/30 tho it was on the turf course. 4 works here in prep, 2 bullets.
Definitely better than 5-1 ML.
Ghaaleb’s Winner won his debut too, tho at Fairmount Park and vs 9k maidens and with a 66 score.
He is debuting on Lasix here. Track bias for 7 furlong races on the all-weather surface is kind to posts 8 and out (30% hit rate).
PR Radio Star edged out other contenders in The X and East Rand for my 3rd spot. I mainly like him because he had the fastest run of all horses coming in with some trouble in his last trip and no win. That race was here on 8/12, 5.5 furlongs

Finally there is the Arlington-Washington Lassie, for 3YO fillies going 7 furlongs, 75k purse. Top 3 here are Saucy At Midnight, Southampton Way, and Espressa. Overlays are Saucy At Midnight, Espressa and Bet She Wins. Can’t totally rule out favorite; be prepared for nice exacta payout.

Saucy At Midnight already has a win off layoff, so don’t expect rust. Her late closing style and outside plays into track bias. 5 works at AP, with 1 bullet.

Enlightened Trails update

Charts are now updated with all races through yesterday’s feature at Kentucky Downs.
Song From Above remains the one horse with multiple scores on the Oaks Trail. On the Derby side, 2 horses now have placed twice: Toledo Pache (Texas Futurity, Evangeline Downs Prince), and Land Battle (Prairie Gold Juvenile, Evangeline Downs Prince).
Next up on the Trails are Arlington Park, Woodbine and Louisiana Downs. I will give you analysis of the Trails races there, plus selections from The Racing Biz’s latest free handicapping contest for 9/9 at Laurel Park.

Derby Trail: http://bit.ly/2eQIzDz

Oaks Trail: http://bit.ly/2xICkGE

More weekend race prep analysis

The races mentioned here, as with yesterday’s post, are all part of my Enlightened Trails series.

Updating matters for Saturday: Rain postpones the Saturday racing at Kentucky Downs to next Wednesday.
Below I have thoughts on the remaining stakes races befitting the Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trails:

Del Mar Debutante: Gabrielleelizabeth, Gas Station Suzie, Just A Smidge.
Gabrielleelizabeth is the one overlay here. Best turn time in the field, a favorable sprinting speed while on the rail, won her 2nd maiden race stretching out 1.5 furlongs, stretches here again while carrying 118.

Evangeline Downs Princess: She’s Creative, Girls Life, Emily’s Lollipop.No overlays here.
Girls Life broke maiden with an 81, bounced to 59 in the LA Cup Juvenile Fillies on 8/5. I’m forgiving of the bounce and am seeking a return to the top 3.

Sorority Stakes at Monmouth: Pacific Gale, Mauk’s Tuff, Little Dipper.
Mauk’s Tuff is the one overlay. An 82 score in her maiden-breaker is best speed for distance of this field. She bounced to 66 last time out in the Ellis Park Debutante. She retains fantastic front-running speed and favorable rail position. Also owns best turn time of these.

Saturday prep race analysis

Lot of races to get to in the next 24 hours, including one today north of the border in Northlands Park, and the rest happening tomorrow on Saturday 9/2 at other tracks. This weekend is considered the first major one to determine which horses will be best considered for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks races. My Trail spreadsheets are updated with the sum total of prep races thus far.

I won out in the DRF $3k credit builder earlier in August. The next tourney in sequence is on 9/16.  Here was the tweet I did the day of the tourney..

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Onto the preps!

 

First on the list is the lone race for today, the Bird Of Pay Stakes at Northland. 6.5 furlongs, 2YO fillies, 50k purse. Top 3 here in this field of 6 are no surprise: Suzette (ML favorite), Dazzling Chic, and Red Bomber.
No real value in this race, as the 1st,3rd and 4th selections per morning line are who I have. No overlays to be found either.

Next is the Evangeline Downs Prince Stakes, for 2YOs going 6 furlongs, 50k purse. top 3 here are Cajun Creed, I Want A Picture (both 5-1) and favored Hardworkcleanlivin. No overlays. Not much value here either. Cajun Creed is a 6-1 choice though and I can take the favorite out of the top 2 positions. Cajun Creed won his debut, then increased slightly in BRIS speed last time out, under wet fast conditions gaining nicely by the 2nd call. 2 works since, 1 a bullet.

Next is the Fasig-Tipton Turf Showcase Juvenile Stakes, for 2YOs going 7 furlongs, 200k purse. Top 3 depends on the AE horses that are 13-16, and the possibility of rain that may take out some horses. Top 3 will come later on but I do see two horses that stand out at this time:
Sky Promise (8-1) took 4 tries to break maiden, the latter 2 on turf. Gained 8.5 lengths on leader between first 2 calls in last race. Best turn time of the field. He may become the lone deep closer based on scratches.
Pont Du Gard (10-1) won his maiden debut, 1 mile on the Arlington Park turf with 72 BRIS. 6 works in prep, 2 very fast, 1 bullet.
I will update choices tonight.

Next at Monmouth is the Sapling, 1 mile for 2YOs, 75k. Top 3 here are Admiral Jimmy, Coltandmississippi, and favored Kowboy Karma. None of these are of any great value between them. No overlays in this one.

Finally, the Spinaway at Saratoga, a Grade 1 race for leading 2YO fillies, going 7 furlongs. I have confidence in the 2 favorites, Pure Silver and Separationofpowers. No one else is definite for 3rd in this small field. The one overlay might be Obvious Two. 3 tries to break maiden and succeeding, sparking up to a 75, going 6 furlongs first time. Stretches out to 7 here and has a new barn.

Tonight I’ll update with 4 more Saturday races.