Breeders Cup Friday 2014 selections

As promised, an updated Breeders Cup selection post

I am planning to attenrd a Breeders Cup event at Emerald Downs on Saturday. It depends on my financial situation, but I have a feeling I’ll get my first chance to see the track that I’ve seen on TV the last 2 years.
Meanwhile, whether or not I get to Auburn, WA, I have for you an early first look at the Breeders Cup races for the big weekend. In this long post I’ll give you analysis of the horsea I select to win plus the top 3. Obviously, with this much lead time, there will be a lot of cuts made, plus the inevitable scratches/changes to figure, so a few variables won’t be factored in.  By Thursday night, I’ll have the 4 BC races figured out in full, and likewise on Friday night for the remainder.
BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE TURF is a mile on the Santa Anita course for colts and geldings. $1 million at stake.
3 LUCK OF THE KITTEN has run 1st or 2nd in all 4 starts, at Saratoga, Arlington, Kentucky Downs and here at Santa Anita. His performance last time out in the Zuma Beach stakes, a 91 Brisnet win, is the fastest of this field on the track. That score present his forging of a lifetime best, and a possible bounce risk. Sprinting successfully at a route race is always a big plus with me and my hope is that he can repeat.   ML odds are 8/1. My odds are 4-1. I think he’ll be an overlay.
Top 3:
3 Luck Of The Kitten
6 Conquest Typhoon
5 Hootenanny
I think it will be all value for this race, very good race to handicap.

BREEDERS CUP DIRT MILE is for 3YO+, $1 million.
Top 3:

GOLDENCENTS won the Pat O’Brien and last year’s version of this race here. Consistently running in the best races on the West Coast, with 6 starts, 3 wins and 2nds at SA. Top speed on this track of the field, a 107, achieved last year. Trainer Leandro Mora has 1 win and 3 placings in Graded stakes this year, for a return of 6.08. Mora’s overall record this year includes 12 wins and 21 placings, for a decent return of 2.56. His win rate is 26% at the meet, while Rafael Bejarano has 21% wins.   Projected has 6/5 favorite and deservedly so.
1 Goldencents
8 Fed Biz
10 Big Bane Theory

BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF is one mile, $1 million.

5 ISABELLA SINGS finished 2nd impressively in the Grade 2 Natalma Stakes up at Woodbine in September, her 2nd lifetime start. Won her maiden debut wiring a 75k maiden field at Belmont in July.  Her 95 in the Natalma is among the best on turf of this field. She was entered in her prior start as with today’s race under layoff. This sprinter is certainly the speed of the field and an impressive one at that who should have no problem matching her prior effort at one mile. Also: 4 works at Belmont, 3 on their turf course, all 3 works rather fast.
Top 3:
5 Isabella Sings
11 Conquest Harlanate

3 Sunset Glow
Another surprise winner here, with favorites out of the picture.

BREEDERS CUP DISTAFF hosts top fillies and mares, 3YO+ going 9 furlongs on dirt.

BELLE GALLANTEY ships from the NY tracks. Winner of the Beldame Invitational and the Delaware Handicap. Exploded in form last time out in the Beldame with a 104 Brisnet. With a very small sample, horses from posts 4 through 7 have done the best in dirt routes during the meet.
Top 3:
4 Belle Gallantey
2 Tiz Midnight
9 Ria Antonia
Another race that should shut out the favorite. Yes, the playing field is often quite level on Breeders Cup Day.