2019 Breeders Cup Classic analysis

I spent a good part of my off-time this week working on the Breeders Cup past performances, planning analysis and picks of all 14 races. Then, reality set in. I cannot wager on the races, as I am a Texas citizen, and the DAW websites like TwinSpires and TVG do not allow wagering from here. I’d likely have to travel to Lone Star Park or Sam Houston and wager there, or some OTB facility. None of which are in any close distance for yours truly, minus a car. That circumstance may change, but not counting on it.
I got frustrated over the wasted time, and decided instead to flesh out the blog some, and get you my take on the Breeders Cup Classic, horse-for-horse. Here’s how I see it:

1 MATH WIZARD comes out of a close win in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, 9/21. I like how his early closer set up the win on a super-slow pace. Not a great track record lifetime. Only other wins in his career was a 25k claimer, and his 2nd maiden race. In this race, he vaulted past a small top of 99, and his prior effort of 84, with a 100. I have to forecast a bounce as a possibility.
Forecast: Outsider, middle of the pack finish.
My odds: 30-1, compared to 17-1 morning line. Not an overlay, but nearly so.
$: Will take a few more dollars than normal, but not much of a mover.
Pace: Early closer, needs slow pace initially, quickens later tho still slower than normal.

2 SEEKING THE SOUL owns an impressive 20-of-29 in the money lifetime. Won the Stephen Foster at Churchill earlier this year, and the Ack Ack last year, also at CD. A few placings in between, and some great fast runs, but he doesn’t appear anywhere in my variables or odds charts.
Forecast: No chance, might even be last.
My odds: No data. Definitely worse than his listed 20-1 odds for morning line.
$: No data. He’ll be dead on the board as a longshot.
Pace will have to be super slow for this late closer to have a chance.

3 OWENDALE won the OK Derby at Remington last time out, the Ohio Derby at Thistledown in June, and the Lexington at Keeneland in April. Generally a very legitimate player in terms of pace and class. For this race, it’s still a tough ask. I am a fan of his last effort over 9 furlongs. But he sorely lacks appearance in my variables to rank fairly.
Forecast: Outsider, middle of the pack.
My odds: 17-1, right around his 15-1 ML status.
$: Slightly against his direction, meaning he’ll definitely be a double-digit longshot.
Pace: Early closer; normal speed by 1st call, slow by 2nd.
4 WAR OF WILL, the Preakness winner, enters with some questions re his overall pace. I’ll start with his pedigree, which ranks best among his peers (War Front/Visions Of Clarity, out of the mightly Sadler’s Wells). Combined 18.1 AWD is the best score here. Comes out of his 3rd place finish in the aforementioned PA Derby, with a small new top of 99. It was a good gain from 93 in the Jim Dandy, so there’s a possible bounce risk. He gets blinkers for the first time. I say Mark Casse has done the best job of the trainers here, a major reason why I think War Of Will will prevail today. Paulick Repot via the NYRA Press Office profiles War Of Will and Casse here https://www.paulickreport.com/news/breeders-cup/war-of-will-actually-focuses-in-new-blinkers-got-stormy-will-be-more-effective-at-santa-anita/
Forecast: Winner, easy to single in the ABC chart.
My odds: 5/2, way better than his posted 20/1 ML odds. He’s the lone overlay of the field.
$: Taking less $ than most others, being virtually ignored. Only horse who seems to be of this trend here.
Pace: He’s won race at either speed, so to say that his requirements are average isn’t entirely accurate. A good thing, tho.

5 YOSHIDA has raced rather consistently and at top level, but no wins since his Grade 1 Woodward last year. The one big stat I see here are his last-call numbers: 110 in this year’s Woodward, 113 in the Whitney, and 110 in the Stephen Foster. This late closer therefore has the best tactical speed of the field. His trip in the Woodward was very fast at 103 and a bit interesting, getting into traffic and making contact, yet still finding room late to place. His ability to gain on the leader late is always attractive.
Forecast: Outsider, middle of the road.
My odds: 17-1…a lot worse than his listed 8-1.
$: Some will flow both sides, but not enough to take a stand on, for or against. I’d go slightly against his 8-1.
Pace: Somewhat average throughout.
6 ELATE owns a strong in-the-money record through 18 races, including his last 8, all in Graded company. Unfortunately, he doesn’t show up in my variables, or odds. Will not consider.
Forecast: Out of the picture.
Odds: No data, tho he should be a real money burner, with his 6-1 ML odds.
$: No data
Pace: A bit slow throughout for this early closer.

7 HIGHER POWER has 5 wins in 14 races, including this year’s Pacific Classic. His 110 in the race is the fastest for the 10 furlong distance of this field. He did bounce last time out in the Awesome Again with a 96. With these 2 races being his most recent, a bounce back here should not be out of the question.
Forecast: 2nd.
$: He may be slightly ignored in the wagering, but still be attractive.
Odds: 14-1, a sure underlay.
Pace: Average throughout.
8 MCKINZIE is 12-7-5-0 lifetime, and never worse than 2nd in 7 races at Santa Anita. Wins include the Whitney, the Alysheba, the Malibu, the PA Derby and the San Felipe. His 107 in the San Pasqual earlier this year is the fastest SA race of this field. His 102 in the Awesome Again last time could be considered a bounce, as his Whitney score was a 109. I’m a big fan of his consistency, with 7 consecutive runs over 100. 4 works since the Awesome Again, all at SA, last one a bullet.
Forecast: 3rd.
Odds: 6-1, close to his 3-1 ML odds.
$: He’ll take a lot more $ than seems fair, maybe even bet down to even money.
Pace: Average early, slow late.

9 MONGOLIAN GROOM owns a decent record, and won the Awesome Again last time out with a small new top of 105. Besides these 2 races, he doesn’t rank with the others here.
Forecast: No chance.
Odds: No data.
$: Very little movement; likely to remain a longshot.
Pace: Slow early, average late.
10 VINO ROSSO has 5 wins in 14 races, including the Jockey Club Gold Cup on 9/28 at Belmont. Won the Gold Cup here on 5/27 in his SA debut with a strong 109. Only horse with the ‘exploding’ pace tag in this field…a small new top that represents a new lifetime best first set this year (as opposed to multiple times). Last 3 BRIS numbers: 109, 101, 102. With the big gain, he’s past the track par score for the distance, and would be the one to take a stand against, hoping for a bounce.
Forecast: Outside, middle of the pack.
Odds: 5-1, matching his 4-1 ML odds.
$: He’ll be the lightning rod for wagers, tho ultimately it should balance out, and remain a contender but not the favorite.
Pace: Fast all throughout.
11 CODE OF HONOR was nosed out by Vino Rosso in the JCGC last time out, matching the 109 score, a new top following a 109 in his Travers win. With the DQ in the JCGC and wide trip, I feel his 109 could have been even better. 5 wins in 9 lifetime, once out of the money. I rate this deep closer as the speed of the field.
Forecast: 4th
Odds:5-1, close to his 4-1 ML odds
$: Similar to Vino Rosso, he’ll attract a lot of suitors, both for and against. He’ll also stay around 4/1.
Pace: Normal early, slowing down later.
Top 4: 4-8-7-11 War Of Will, McKinzie, Higher Power, Vino Rosso.
Overlay: War Of Will.

How I wager: Win bets on any of my top 3 that are 6-1 or worse. Exactas involving my top 3, but avoiding the 1st-2nd, 1st-3rd public choices. I’d play overlays to win, and top 2 favorites by betting public over them.

Remington Park ThoroEnduro contest analysis,picks 10/18/19

I decided to join tomorrow’s 8-race free handicapping contest put together by The Racing Biz. Maryland Millions Day is Saturday. I get 2 entries; I will put outright win picks in one set, and 2nd place choices in another.
I remain in the ThoroEnduro contest at Remington Park, with 6 contest races tonight. Here’s how I see them:
Race 4 5-6-1 Cuando Again, Little Bit Okie, Lady Orchid.
Cuando Again should prevail here, this race being my biggest choice for a pricey upset. Best AWD numbers of the field (Dominus/Jezebella, out of Wild Again). This sprinter owns the best tactical speed of the field. Last 3 1st call numbers: 98, 83, 95. Floyd Wethey Jr returns to ride (prior winner with him last November). 11 cashes in 16 lifetime races at RP. Also a prior winner going from turf to dirt and removal of blinkers. Great increase at 1st and 2nd call in last start, after being 7 weeks away. He also gained well on leader, but falted afterward.

Race 6: 6-2-8 Drowningndiamonds, Sladens Dream, Welder.
Drowningndiamonds ran an 84 last time out, tho finished 5th out of 8, 6-wide at some point, yet gaining at nearly each call. 5 wins in 17 starts at RP. Waiting 3 weeks to stretch out. 2 works since at RP
Race 7: 1-6-2 Three Chords, Okie Diva, Jackson Hill.
Jackson Hill best of the non-favorites here. He surged to a 79, beyond his prior start of 42, absorbing a considerable drop in class, 50k to 30k, plus addition of Bute. Waiting since 5/4 to stretch out from 5.5 furlongs. 44% of sprinters in 6 furlong races have won during this meet. 14% of runners have won at this distance from posts 1 through 3.

Race 8: 2-10-3 Cowboy Mischief, Morhawk, Pacific Typhoon.
Morhawk ideal longshot for an upset. He’s the lone late closer of the field, tho has 1 lifetime win in 16, 9 cashes. Gained well vs leader at 2nd call last time out, and nearly won.
Race 9: 1-8-3 Shotgun Kowboy (best bet), Tuff Kid, D Toz.
Tuff Kid best of the rest here. Best AWD numbers (Don’t Get Mad/Tuff Chick, out of Wild Again). 6th race under reclaim by Karl Broberg. 1 win and 2 shows in those 5 races. In his last start, 1st after being 2 months away, and a distance/surface switch, he did better at 2nd call, and gained steadily on leader.

Race 10: 6-2-1 Sweet Mary M, Princess Asya, Special Treasure. Very mild value up front, but no real favorites. I like Special Treasure as a possible. Still a maiden after 3 races here vs 42k horses. Matched lifetime best of 66 last time out. Best tactical speed of these. 1st call numbers: 96, 90, 90. One of several fillies to carry 114, due to her maiden status. Similar track bias to Jackson Hill.

Charles Town race analysis & picks, race 2-9, 10-12-19

I joined the latest contest from The Racing Biz, with 8 of the 9 races on the Charles Town card today as part of it.
Contestants get to use 2 sets of entries. I’m going with winners in set 1, 2nd place predictions in set 2. Here’s how I’m going to play them, prior to seeing scratches and changes.

Race 2:
2-4-8: Killa Dee, Loving Touch, Scottish Man. Overlays: Merry Merry Mojo.
Scottish Man the value horse behind chalk. Had to shake off considerable rust, being away 6 months and not only facing older horses for the first time, but also getting blinkers for the first time too. He was never in the race, that one a 4.5 furlong effort here at CT. I say he bounces back, and gets some room and patience to close late. The pace will need to be somewhat slow by the far turn for this to happen.

Race 3: 8-10-5 The Better One, Twirling Owen, Manarola. Overlays: The Better One, Q’s Song
The Better One is still a maiden after 2 4.5 furlong races, against statebred fillies.She made modest gain from the back vs the leader last time out and also improved at 1st call, first race after a nearly 3 month layoff. I have to think there is more in the tank.

Race 4: 9-2-5 Parisian Diva, Sherwood Lady, Ocean Lilly. Overlays are the latter two: Sherwood Lady is a pure sprinter and has the best tactical speed of the race. She owns two wins from stretching out in distance, and happens to be the lone filly stretching out here. For the 7 furlong distance, sprinters have a nice advantage, winning 42% of the time, matched with a 16% strike for all horses running in the first 3 posts. Ocean Lilly cuts back from a route race last time, and she had shown some gain vs leader again 29k allowance horses here last month.

Race 5: 4-6-1 Dr. Tucker, Ihearyouknockin, Grumpelstiltskin. Dr. Tucker is the lone overlay here. This 6YO gelding has 5 placings in 7 races lifetime, all here. Raced straight off layoff 4 of those times, with 2 wins. Owns 1 prior stretchout win. Gets Jose Mantano back to ride, currently at 23% for the meet. Dr. Tucker has waited since Memorial Day weekend to race again. She’s also the lone late closer, and will need a slow pace throughout, especially late, to contend and win. 4 works in prep, the last 2 being bullets.

Race 6: 5-6-3: Aaron’s Tap, Rescue Five, Blue Plaid. Overlays are the latter two. Rescue Five has runs of 82 to 84 in his last 3 races, best such pattern of this field. Small new top of 84 acheived on 8/31. Stayed in contention last time out in the Last Enchantment here on 9/21, doing so minus the weight allowance for jockey Sunday Diaz Jr the race prior. Blue Plaid had bounced from 77 to 67 in going from statebred to open company and non winners of 3. It’s a bit troubling that this sprinter hasn’t been on the lead for his last three races. Track bias could be helpful: Pure sprinters are winning at a 67% clip for the 4.5 furlong distance.

Race 7: 1-2-6 Prime Lime, Groomed To Rock, Nellysford. All 3 are overlays. I see serious money being made here.
Prime Line has won 3 of her last 4. Set a big new top of 89 last time out. This pure sprinter has the best tactical speed of the field. Last 3 1st call numbers: 97, 98, 91. Waiting since 9/8 to race with the stretchout from 5.5 to 7 furlongs. 2 works at CT in that time frame. Prime Line is my best bet for a win today.
Groomed To Rock has placed in 19 of 31 races lifetime, all at this track. Best AWD numbers (Rock Hound/Chelsea Groomstick, out of Groomstick). Jumped up in pace from 64 to 71 after dropping from 28k allowance horses to 15k statebred optional claimers. Had a somewhat wide turn last race, which may have cost her the win, though maintained some progression on eventual winner throughout.
Nellysford has an interesting up-down pattern in her last 7 races, with the signs pointing up today.

Race 8 10-6-4: Buff’s Eye View, Runnin’toluvya, Jeffery Scott. Overlays: Buff’s Eye View, Jeffery Scott.
Buff’s Eye View barely qualifies as an overlay, given his morning-line odds. Only horse here to be on influence of small new top that’s past year’s best. Ran 83 last time out on 9/21 vs 28k allowance horses who were non-winners of two. Ran wide in the mud in that race, yet still closed to be 2nd. He showed improvement in each call with this 1st effort after 7 weeks away. Only early closer of this field.
Jeffery Scott had run in that same race on 9/21, finishing 5th. He was also running on layoff, tho was away since early May, and did show gain on the leader throughout and at each call.

Race 9: 4-6-1 Brass Magnolia, T Rex Express, Cameron Steel.
Brass Magnolia is the lone overlay. Since a spring overlay, she’s run consistently in the 60s to a high of 71 two races back. Jose Montano returns to ride her. Waiting about a month to stretch out half a furlong. 2 fast works here at CT in prep.

ThoroEnduro (Remington Park) contest picks, 9/29/19

I’m still towards the back of the pack in this year’s ThoroEnduro contest at Remington Park. Not faring well with winners, but have scored with a few longshot, and managed to stay consistent with payouts.
Today is OK Derby Day, with 6 contest races: 3,4, and 10 through 13. Here’s my take:

Race 3: 7-8-9…Valiant Defender, Pickens, Southgate.
Overlays: Valiant Defender, TC’s Image.
Valiant Defender owns the best AWD numbers coming in (Stay Thirsty/Northern Deputy, by Deputy Commander). All 3 lifetime races at 71 or 72, winning his maiden debut at Lone Star, then 2nd in the El Joven at Retama, 5th last out in the Sunday Silence. I have to give him points for consistency. Plus, he’s the lone early closer here, and did nicely last out vs leader at 2nd call.
TC’s Image was 4th in the EL Joven, his debut on turf, and also did well vs leader. Laid off 6 weeks since, slight bounce risk.

Race 4 picks: 11-2-7… Cayman a Bikini, Keetonville and Brilliant Stew. These 3 are all overlays.
Cayman a Bikini set the best distance and turf speed of the field, a 90, 2 races back vs optional claimers for 15k. That was on 8/14 at Retama, making her 2 for 2 on turf lifetime. Switches back to Sasha Risenhoover as well as turf here.
Keetonville has a prior 1st-off-layoff victory. Best work tab of the field with 6 of them since early May. Showed some backstretch gain last time out.
Brilliant Slew achieved her lifetime best of 90 2 races back last month at Retama, matched with an 88 since. She’s proven to be the true speed of the field; last 3 numbers are 88, 90, 70. Even her 88 could have been faster, as she ran just a bit wide at the turn, but contended throughout.

Race 10: 1-3-5: Spring Steen, Poets Dreamed, Brave Daisey.
Poets Dreamed is the lone overlay here. Never mind the 30-1 odds; she won her debut vs 100k maidens at Oaklawn in April, 75 BRIS. Followed up with an 81 vs 34k allowance horses here last month. Both were on dirt tho neither in optimal, fast conditions. The trip last out was somewhat eventful, with a bumpy start from the gate, and a wide trip around the turn, yet still showed some fight at the end. Only early closer in the field.

Race 11 picks: 4-1-11 Lookin At Lee, Keep Quiet, Net Gain. Overlays are Lookin at Lee and Net Gain.
Lookin at Lee won the Albuquerque Downs Handicap last time with small new top of 102, 2 races back. This late closer has the best tactical speed of the field. Last 3 stretch call numbers: 112, 100, 91. 4 works at RP since the Governor’s Cup on 8/23, 1 bullet amidst them.
Net Gain I mainly value for consistency. Last 3 BRIS numbers: 94, 89, 93. In fact, in the last 10 races, going back a year, he’s ranged from 86 to 96.

OK Derby: 9-10-4 Long Range Toddy, Mucho Gusto, Sleepy Eyes Todd.
Overlays: Long Range Toddy, Chess Chief, Sleepy Eyes Todd

Long Range Toddy’s lifetime wins include the Grade 2 Rebel, and 3 races here: The Springboard Mile, the Clever Trevor and his 2nd maiden race. 3 wins in 4 races here, with a top speed of 89 in the Springboard. Off since the Indiana (Downs) Derby on 7/13(briefly leader halfway through), he’s posted 4 RP works, last one a bullet. This is my best bet of the day.

Chess Chief hasn’t proven much since his maiden victory at Fair Grounds in March. He did post a lifetime best 99 last time out in the Travers, despite finishing 8th. Last 3 BRIS: 99, 91, 94. Only worried about a bounce here.
Sleepy Eyes Todd has 3 wins in 5, and debuts in Graded company as well as this 9-furlong distance. Won last time out with a 102 at Canterbury, good track, vs 25k optional claimers. David Cabrera is back in the saddle for him; this plus the familiarity of running at RP should be helpful.

Race 13: 11-3-10…Smart Lassie, Trixie Racer, Twirling Around. Overlays: Smart Lassie, Twiring Around, Tap and Spin, and Lone Star Lady.

Smart Lassie I judge on the relative quick trip, a 67 BRIS from her lone start. It was a slightly wide trip, that race here 10 days ago, though still gained a bit at 2nd call, and finished 4th.

Twirling Around took a bounce after graduating from maiden company and debuting both on turf, Retama, and at a route. She’d be expect to bounce back, cutting back to a sprint and a slightly smaller class.

Lone Star Lady took 3 tries to break maiden status and did so with a n 11-length win last out at Retama in August, 82 BRIS. Should do well with the 2nd small increase in distance and the 45 day layoff.

Tap and Spin ships from Lone Star, winning her maiden debut, then a distance 9th in a 100k event. Laid off since mid-July, she’s got 5 RP works, 3 of them very fast.

Delaware Park racecard analysis, picks for 9/25/19

I’ve passively observed the horse racing industry these past 3 months, and am not sure I can fully embrace it again, due in no small part to the ongoing controversies over full disclosure of improprieties re multiple parties. Combine that with my non-DAW status here in Texas, and I suddenly feel very disenchanted.
Maybe it’s a good thing. Having been involved in some way with horses since 2008, lost considerably more than won in most years, and yet still held hope that my approach to handicapping would be rather profitable, if not at least fruitful. If I had continued to reside in WA, my stance might be rather different.
So…..why bother keep this website or continue to follow? I suppose I like to see how the house of cards will fall….how the shell game continues to deceive those of us on the outside of the boardrooms.
If I ever move out of state, and into a DAW-friendly locale, I just may embrace the sport whole again, but will be more cautious about what’s happening with this fragile sport. I truly hope that it doesn’t go the way of greyhound racing, surely tarnished by the plight of humane treatment (and the lack thereof) for dogs.  Congressional Representative Eddie Lucio III had introduced a bill re regulation of horse racing, but that may have died in debate and not made it to a vote.

I also still like the occasional free handicapping tournament, and have thoughts on one such contest that takes place at Delaware Park. It’s the monthly free contest offered by The Racing Biz, the same folks from whom I won a contest and neat swag, back in 2016.. I’m also alive in the early going at Remington Park’s ThoroEnduro contest.
I will most likely opt out of following the Derby and Oaks Future Wagers, given my legal status. I could choose to be totally selfless and do the work of strategizing for you all, but for this blogger, I’d rather give you my take plus put up my money to back it up, even if I do lose it all like I did this year. It feels embarrassing but I still want to rest my laurels on past success, where I did make some nice scores and actually profit.

The Enlightened Trails did play out in early September as usual. The Trail charts will definitely get updated. As mentioned an earlier post, Serengeti Empress’ win in the KY Oaks justified my further concern for the sport, as she was no factor in my own Trails. She is a filly who never won the best race for a track that would properly represent in the Oaks, actually winning the race. This is the only time an outsider to my Trails actually won.

Let’s see how the 8 race card looks at Delaware. Rules for the contest: 1 pick, mythical $2 win/place wager, mutuel payouts determine winner, top 3 win prizes.
Race 1: 5-6-7. Lone overlay here, Given Achance, has top trainer Hugh McMahon. 2 months away from action, this sprinter has a modest pattern in pace, scoring in the 60’s. 2 works at Delaware, 1 a bullet. Track bias heavily favors front speed.
Race 2: 3-6-4 I like Stars in the Park as first-time starter due to my bias for his workouts leading up to the race. No other horse here seems close. Not exactly a true wagering race, either. Another grandson of AP Indy, has one of the better trainers at this track.

Race 3: 5-7-2 Unclenedwhodrank my top value play and 2nd overall. Best AWD numbers here (Cal Nation/Southafrican Queen, out of the South African-bred Horse Chestnut). Ever since his winter/spring layoff and return back, he’s put up mixed numbers, yet his last 2 races, both with current jockey Raul Mena, see him make a nice comeback to his best scores. Last 3 races: 69, 71, 67 BRIS.

Race 4: 12k claimers sprint on the turf here. No access to past performances for this one, so I opted to go with the best jockey/trainer win % combo. Mr. Maurice gets the nod here.

Race 5; 3-4-6. I predict a chalky finish, tho the ranked big longshot, True Prosperity may be the one value threat. 2 races back, this filly ran her lifetime best of 76 at this distance. She failed first time on turf and slight class upgrade shipping from Monmouth to Belmont. She tries again at the distance, comes back to dirt, and is the lone late closer of this field. She will have to rely on a fast pace early that slows up somewhat later for her to capitalize.

Race 6 involves 17k claimers at 6 furlongs on the dirt. No PPs here either. I did choose #2, Hoskins, featuring the connections of Halliday and Ness.

7th race feature: 1-6-4. Yowza Yowza Yowza (surely you remember this title from the 70s disco tune?) is my big overall upset on this card. His 84 last time out in similar class and conditions here was likely helped by his recent introduction to blinkers. Prior race was his 1st such outing, and he promptly beat 36k allowance runners at 8.5 furlongs. Taking a nother cutback in distance here, he also gets back Johan Rosado in the saddle, and has the low-carrying weight of 117 (this for having no wins in the last month). Only early closer of the field; he’d need fast fractions late to contend and win. I say it will happens, given the relative amount of speed in the field. Not to be outdone is another longshot, Frio Factor, who improved nicely at each call last time out first after layoff and switch to turf, along with 4 length gain on the leader by 2nd call.

8th race: 3-8-5 Orbidore adds blinkers for the first time. Has run between 53 and 60 all 3 lifetime starts. Gained a few lengths last time time vs leader before tiring out. Sergeant Azer, off 2 months, posted 3 works at Parx in prep, one pretty fast. Stylemeister as worst horse per odds might surprise. He has the best AWD numbers of the field (Bodemeister/Glamour and Style, out of Dynaformer).

Enlightened Trails update (Prairie Meadows, 7/26/19)

I’m venturing out of the gate a bit slow in regard to the blog and the Enlightened Trails. I’m currently at a temporary address while I seek something more permanent. Meanwhile, I’ve sharpened my focus on horse racing, despite my occasional doubt as to how the sport is functioning, in regard to its place as a respected sport. The deaths of a number of horses, the DQ’s, the lack of funding in some locations, not to mention that I’m in a non-DAW state (Texas) have caused me to ponder over whether I should even continue my interest. I’ve been a fan for about 40 years…from the days of racing “Racing From…” on WOR-9 in NYC, to my first forays in live wagering at the NYC tracks in the 2000s, I rooted hard for my favorites, and always prided myself on good selections between top contenders. Serious wins and losses have forever shaped my wagering strategy; all this without being a ‘pro’ and forking over huge money to play in tournaments.
I’m still passively following the sport and industry, hoping there will be some positive moment for us horseplayers in the Lone Star State. Last I checked, there was a bill introduced into the state legislature that would attempt to amend the Texas Racing Act. Those efforts were not successful. https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=85R&Bill=HB3926
Purses from racing in the state, however, are likely to get a boost, per this article from the Paulick Report:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/the-biz/texas-horse-racing-to-get-purse-boost-from-new-law/

Maybe I’ll have to move to have the chance to wager again. Meanwhile, I’ll continue providing thoughts on the Trail races.
Next up is the Prairie Gold Lassie at Prairie Meadows, a race for 2YO fillies, going 6 furlongs for a 65k purse.
My top 4 here are 2-4-5-6: She’s All Wolfe, A Girl Like Me, Flat Out Speed (really, a tie between these latter 2), and Kahului.
Projected overlay: A Girl Like Me
ABC: 2/4,5,6
A Girl Like Me has 3 races here, breaking maiden at 5 furlongs at the 32k level. Only filly here to run off of a paired top. With her best race just a month prior, this race could propel her to run better. Further, this is her 3rd straight race with a stretchout, and she’s the lone backstretch speed in a field with mostly early speed.

Enlightened Derby Trail 2019-2020 first look

Having completed a move from WA to non-DAW TX, I’ve found the time to post and link the first draft of the next EDT season.
Here’s how the spreadsheet looks:
Retama Park and Sweetwater Downs are off; the rest remain on the calendar as compared to last year’s 2YO season. The 3YO season remains intact, laying in wait until the individual tracks make their announcements. I source these details from the Bloodhorse Stakes Calendar page.
Belmont Stakes was a huge success, as I picked the trifecta box of Sir Winston, Tacitus and Joevia.  Keeping finances at a minimum, I did not play any races this day, but it would have been a nice payout of $22.40 for the win, and $1244 for the trifecta.

As DAWs are not allowed in TX, I have virtually nowhere to wager online in the state. I’d have to visit Lone Star Park, I suppose.  Outside of that, there’s the DerbyWars website, which is more head-to-head, and does involve $ in tournaments.   Sure wish legislation in TX would change their minds.   One bill was introduced to get wagering going again:

There’s one website I miss that allowed people to compete for glory, giving out points for the best mutuel picks. It folded a few years ago. Anyone remember?