Ranwick picks for Everest Day 10/14

Being a bit of a rookie at Aussie racing, I noticed a lack of variables I’d normally use.  Without the benefit of Brisnet as the provider of stats, there was no info on run-style, track bias, or lifetime speed ratings to compare runners with.   Despite this, I managed to construct picks for 8 races….and here they are:

Race 1: 5-1   Zamex, Mercurial Lad.     Zamex bounced from 77 to 70 since a barrier trial. 76 at 7 furlongs lifetime is the best of these at the distance. Seems to have the fastest speed figures. Positive jockey switch to Tye Angland.

Race 2: 1-2   Two horse race on paper, and that’s how I see it…Santos over Spin here with no real $ to make this one interesting.

Race 3:  1-7-4  Regimen, Workdrinks, Sweet Deal.  ML top 3 also, so probably one to pass up.

Race 4: 6-8-7  After All That, Pumpkin Pie, Darts Away.   After All That 3rd in ML odds, best track score of the field, gained somewhat on the leader last time out. Positive jockey switch to Robert Thompson

Race 5: 4-8-9   Harper’s Choice, Oklahoma Girl, Pygmy.  Harper’s Choice co-3rd choice in ML.   Best pattern of speed figures, fast tough trip last time out. Also best for off-track and Ranwick.   3 2nds in 8 races lifetime here…is she due?

Race 6: 9-2-5  Cismontaine over favored Big Duke and longshot Havana Cooler.  Cismontaine has a bunch of equipment (gear) changes in prep. Gained a bit on leader despite late fade out.  One of my big longshot picks.

Race 7: 5-4-12   Kuro, Japonisme, In Her Time. 2 more longshots upfront.  Kuro with fastest pattern of speed ratings and fastest tough trip coming in.

Race 8 is the big one, the Everest.  top 3 are 4-3-5. Redkirk Warrior over Redzel and Clearly Innoncent.   Redkirk Warrior improved nicely first race after layoff, 104 to 112, and did well behind leaders at that.

 

 

 

Slight return from slight hiatus

It’s been too long between posts, what with my work schedule and other projects taking equal importance at this time.
I do owe you some updates, including the 2017 Fear Factor stat reveal, both batters and pitchers. I will likely take this slowly, 1 team a day until the final list can be posted and comparisons madeand reveal the stats as we go and provide a summary afterward.

Enlightened Trails continue to present a good deal of parity. This is normal as most of the smaller tracks are getting their races in, and the big ones come shortly, starting with the Breeders Cup races in November. After that race, I will hope to solidify the divisions for each track, and provide yet another summary. Hey, maybe even some handicapping of these races, which I do miss.
Lately I’ve done OK with handicapping in several contests. I play contests at DerbyWars (rather, did), TVG, and the ThoroEnduro contest at Remington Park. My next time wagering actual $ will be the two-day Breeders Cup races, and I do hope I can be off one of those 2 days to fully enjoy the experience.

Yahoo! Sports fantasy football has underwhelmed in all 5 weeks thus far, and I’m about middle of the pack in my 10-team live draft league  https://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/888387/6

Enlightened Derby Trail spreadsheet is updated at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZMfIOPgnbXXmYUKlxStJ0K6sOwWPlPhsRNLyjeb5PMs/edit?usp=sharing

Oaks Trail update: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10AeZ-2-yf2GW701zpzt-r62pzXQsxea4Km57h4sEunc/edit?usp=sharing

Enlightened Trails update (Lousiana Downs, Arlington Park)

Today’s Enlightened Trails take us to Arlington Park and Louisiana Downs. We’ll start at LaD and the Sunday Silence, an ungraded 1 mile race for 2YO colts, with a 60k purse. My top 2 here are High Providence and Smokin’ Truth (no confidence in picking 3) Smokin’ Truth and G’s Turn are the overlays.
Smokin’ Truth definitely will be my wiseguy selection. Winner of his maiden debut here on 6/14, he took 7 weeks off, ran 4 workouts, with 2 of them pretty fast. In the LA Cup Juvenile, first time vs state-bred, he started and finished among contenders, ending up 3rd, and matching his pace number in his debut. Of these 2YOs, he’s got the fastest ones of the field. Henry B Johnson is the trainer here, and he adds Lasix to this colt for the first time.

G’s Turn has run somewhat slower and only in maiden company. I like that he did run a pair of 3rds, and wound up with the best troubled trip coming into today’s field. I am taking out the money-line favored Sitting Bull, but will use over my overlays.

Next is the Happy Ticket, for leading 2YO fillies going 1 mile on the LaD turf course, also a 60k purse, also an ungraded race. Top 3 here are Frisco Girl, Lady O’Toole, and longshot/overlay Putsumdirtonit.

Putsumdirtonit won in her 3rd try vs 20k level maidens, the last one her debut vs state-breds and on a wet fast track. She scored a 59 BRIS.Track bias in her favor: in 17 turf routes, the majority (6) have won with her early/presser style. Also, the top posts in those races were the first 3.

Now to Arlington Park and the Arlington-Washington Futurity. This is for top colts going 7 furlongs for a 75k purse. My top 3 begin are all overlays in Captivating Moon and Ghaaleb’s Winner, followed by PR Radio Star. With the scratch of track 2nd choice Soul Of Discretion, I am going against the favored Barry Lee and setting up for a big score.
Captivating Moon enters with a single race and win, a nice 82 score vs 28k maidens here on 7/30 tho it was on the turf course. 4 works here in prep, 2 bullets.
Definitely better than 5-1 ML.
Ghaaleb’s Winner won his debut too, tho at Fairmount Park and vs 9k maidens and with a 66 score.
He is debuting on Lasix here. Track bias for 7 furlong races on the all-weather surface is kind to posts 8 and out (30% hit rate).
PR Radio Star edged out other contenders in The X and East Rand for my 3rd spot. I mainly like him because he had the fastest run of all horses coming in with some trouble in his last trip and no win. That race was here on 8/12, 5.5 furlongs

Finally there is the Arlington-Washington Lassie, for 3YO fillies going 7 furlongs, 75k purse. Top 3 here are Saucy At Midnight, Southampton Way, and Espressa. Overlays are Saucy At Midnight, Espressa and Bet She Wins. Can’t totally rule out favorite; be prepared for nice exacta payout.

Saucy At Midnight already has a win off layoff, so don’t expect rust. Her late closing style and outside plays into track bias. 5 works at AP, with 1 bullet.

Enlightened Trails update

Charts are now updated with all races through yesterday’s feature at Kentucky Downs.
Song From Above remains the one horse with multiple scores on the Oaks Trail. On the Derby side, 2 horses now have placed twice: Toledo Pache (Texas Futurity, Evangeline Downs Prince), and Land Battle (Prairie Gold Juvenile, Evangeline Downs Prince).
Next up on the Trails are Arlington Park, Woodbine and Louisiana Downs. I will give you analysis of the Trails races there, plus selections from The Racing Biz’s latest free handicapping contest for 9/9 at Laurel Park.

Derby Trail: http://bit.ly/2eQIzDz

Oaks Trail: http://bit.ly/2xICkGE

More weekend race prep analysis

The races mentioned here, as with yesterday’s post, are all part of my Enlightened Trails series.

Updating matters for Saturday: Rain postpones the Saturday racing at Kentucky Downs to next Wednesday.
Below I have thoughts on the remaining stakes races befitting the Enlightened Derby and Oaks Trails:

Del Mar Debutante: Gabrielleelizabeth, Gas Station Suzie, Just A Smidge.
Gabrielleelizabeth is the one overlay here. Best turn time in the field, a favorable sprinting speed while on the rail, won her 2nd maiden race stretching out 1.5 furlongs, stretches here again while carrying 118.

Evangeline Downs Princess: She’s Creative, Girls Life, Emily’s Lollipop.No overlays here.
Girls Life broke maiden with an 81, bounced to 59 in the LA Cup Juvenile Fillies on 8/5. I’m forgiving of the bounce and am seeking a return to the top 3.

Sorority Stakes at Monmouth: Pacific Gale, Mauk’s Tuff, Little Dipper.
Mauk’s Tuff is the one overlay. An 82 score in her maiden-breaker is best speed for distance of this field. She bounced to 66 last time out in the Ellis Park Debutante. She retains fantastic front-running speed and favorable rail position. Also owns best turn time of these.

Saturday prep race analysis

Lot of races to get to in the next 24 hours, including one today north of the border in Northlands Park, and the rest happening tomorrow on Saturday 9/2 at other tracks. This weekend is considered the first major one to determine which horses will be best considered for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks races. My Trail spreadsheets are updated with the sum total of prep races thus far.

I won out in the DRF $3k credit builder earlier in August. The next tourney in sequence is on 9/16.  Here was the tweet I did the day of the tourney..

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Onto the preps!

 

First on the list is the lone race for today, the Bird Of Pay Stakes at Northland. 6.5 furlongs, 2YO fillies, 50k purse. Top 3 here in this field of 6 are no surprise: Suzette (ML favorite), Dazzling Chic, and Red Bomber.
No real value in this race, as the 1st,3rd and 4th selections per morning line are who I have. No overlays to be found either.

Next is the Evangeline Downs Prince Stakes, for 2YOs going 6 furlongs, 50k purse. top 3 here are Cajun Creed, I Want A Picture (both 5-1) and favored Hardworkcleanlivin. No overlays. Not much value here either. Cajun Creed is a 6-1 choice though and I can take the favorite out of the top 2 positions. Cajun Creed won his debut, then increased slightly in BRIS speed last time out, under wet fast conditions gaining nicely by the 2nd call. 2 works since, 1 a bullet.

Next is the Fasig-Tipton Turf Showcase Juvenile Stakes, for 2YOs going 7 furlongs, 200k purse. Top 3 depends on the AE horses that are 13-16, and the possibility of rain that may take out some horses. Top 3 will come later on but I do see two horses that stand out at this time:
Sky Promise (8-1) took 4 tries to break maiden, the latter 2 on turf. Gained 8.5 lengths on leader between first 2 calls in last race. Best turn time of the field. He may become the lone deep closer based on scratches.
Pont Du Gard (10-1) won his maiden debut, 1 mile on the Arlington Park turf with 72 BRIS. 6 works in prep, 2 very fast, 1 bullet.
I will update choices tonight.

Next at Monmouth is the Sapling, 1 mile for 2YOs, 75k. Top 3 here are Admiral Jimmy, Coltandmississippi, and favored Kowboy Karma. None of these are of any great value between them. No overlays in this one.

Finally, the Spinaway at Saratoga, a Grade 1 race for leading 2YO fillies, going 7 furlongs. I have confidence in the 2 favorites, Pure Silver and Separationofpowers. No one else is definite for 3rd in this small field. The one overlay might be Obvious Two. 3 tries to break maiden and succeeding, sparking up to a 75, going 6 furlongs first time. Stretches out to 7 here and has a new barn.

Tonight I’ll update with 4 more Saturday races.

 

Pacific Classic 2017 thoughts

Everyone’s handicapping the Pacific Classic, maybe riding Arrogate’s strong numbers and playing with the percentages…otherwise trying to beat him. Naturally, I fall into the latter category. Here’s how I see this race, which is 10 furlongs on the Del Mar dirt track, a Grade 1 event with $1 million at stake.
My top 3 are Hard Aces, Collected, and Donworth. Overlays are Hard Aces and Donworth.

Hard Aces had last won in April at Santa Anita in the Tokyo City, then last year’s Cougar II Handicap. I focus strongly on his run last out, the 2017 Cougar II. He had the lead for half of the 12 furlong race, nosed out in the finish. In the process he had to run wide, and also bumped a few rivals.With 3 runs in the 90s, he has the most consistent run of BRIS ratings. I like that he improved a bit at the 2nd call first after layoff, and assumed the lead at that point also.

Donworth hasn’t won since the 2015 Stanton, 3 races ahead of his maiden breaker. My focus is on the fact that he’s the lone early speed of the field. Also, he has the best fit for track bias. In 34 races at 10 furlongs during the Del Mar meet, early sprinters have won 14 of them, a 41% clip. Also, the range of horses in posts 4-7 in those races have the best scoring ability, at 16%. He does post a bounce risk, but I like the timing of his running here to overlook that fact.

I am likely to bet to win on those 2 horses, mixing in Collected, Accelerate and, yes, Arrogate to play over in exactas.