2018 Kentucky Derby Wager Pool 1/Sire wager aftermath, and picks

Ultimately, neither pool changed my impact. I was in no position, as with prior pools to wait until the last few minutes to get my wagers in, therefore missing out on the 7-1 odds of Bolt D’Oro. I stuck to my guns using my 2nd through 6th picks, figuring the Megdalia D’Oro colt would remain at 5-1 and not do worse.  If I had the opportunity, I would have put $2 more on this one.
Upon the running of the Kentucky Jockey Club, there seemed only little evidence to change my tune. No horses impressed me, outside of Enticed who became of my 5 with the win. Tiz Mischief’s speed rating put him a lot closer, but I ultimately left him off the list.  I did give Sporting Chance the edge for having the Grade 1 win.
The wagers:
$2 wins on
Avery Island 29-1
Enticed 56-1
Free Drop Billy 33-1
Good Magic 11-1
Untamed Domain 29-1
$1 exacta box:
Bolt D’Oro (7-1), Enticed, Good Magic, field
Best payout: Enticed over Good Magic, $663.

Sire Wager only solidified Megdalia D’Oro’s place further in my wagers.  Owing to a currently small budget, I decided not to pursue exactas for this pool.
$2 wins on:
Curlin (barely qualified at 6-1)
Into Mischief 16-1
Scat Daddy 26-1
Tapit 8-1
Union Rags 28-1

I did pass up on Megdalia D’Oro, who held at 5-1
If I had played the exactas, I’d have done this box:
Megdalia D’Oro, Tapit, Curlin, field.   Probably a good thing to pass it up, as no odds in this group is worse than 8-1.

2018 Kentucky Derby Pool 1 analysis

 

In studying the Future Wager, I kept to last year’s procedure for handicapping, duplicated from my previous post. Class, Churchill Downs pace, longest win, pace progress, AWD, run pace.
I kept the top 7 in each category, and added up the ranks in variables. Here first I’m listing the best of the rest, in the event one of my horses has too good of the odds.
8th: COPPER BULLET: Grade 2 winner of the Saratoga Special, following a 2nd in the Bashford Manor at CD, and his maiden win there with a 93 Bris. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/cd/2017/5/25/1/race-1-msw-at-cd-on-5-25-17
The 93 score ties for best CD effort of the 23 horses here. Lifetime runs: 94, 88, 93, 88.
7th: TIZ MISCHIEF: Won at maiden level in 3rd try at Keeneland 10/7, 8.5 furlongs, 90 BrIs.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/kee/2017/10/7/4/race-4-msw-at-kee-on-10-7-17

Prior race was 93 at CD, matching Copper Bullet’s best here. Maiden debut was 79, so the progress is hopeful.
6th: SPORTING CHANCE. Winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful after winning vs 83k maidens. Lifetime pace numbers: 98, 89, 79. Making good pace progress.
And here’s the top 5:
AVERY ISLAND Winner of the Grade 2 Nashua at Aqueduct on 11/5. Good AWD numbers (Street Sense/Kinda Spicy by AP Indy) Won maiden race at 8.5 furlongs.

UNTAMED DOMAIN: Won the Grade 2 Summer Stakes, 2nd last out in the BC Juvenile Turf with 89 Bris; 3rd in the G3 8.5 furlong With Anticipation. Good AWD numbers (Animal Kingdom/Ciao, out of Lear Fan). Progressing nicely in pace; 4 gains out of a possible race in each lifetime effort.

FREE DROP BILLY Winner of the Grade 1 8.5 furlongs Breeders Futurity, 2nd in the Hopeful (98 Bris) and Sanford. 9th last time out in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Union Rags/Trensa, out of Giant’s Causeway. Positive pace progress, with best at 98 coming in early September.

GOOD MAGIC: Already a superstar, winning the BC Juvenile while still a maiden. 2nd in the Champagne. Curlin/Glinda The Good, out of Hard Spun. Lifetime numbers: 105, 96, 92. Ideal pace progress, Grade 1 wins and 8.5 furlong victory
BOLT D’ORO is my most highly favored pick. 3 wins and a 3rd: Won his maiden debut vs 60k at Del Mar in August, then the Bashford Manor Futurity, and the Front Runner, then third in the BC Juvenile Medaglia D’Oro/Globe Trot, out of AP Indy. Lifetime numbers: 99, 105, 94, 91. Also with good pace progress and 8.5 furlong victory.

The plan is to wager on my top 5 for wins, and top 3 to each other in exactas, along with the field selections.

 

2017 Derby Sire Future Wager analysis

At last the results of both future wagers can be revealed. The variables involved are the same as in previous years:
AWD of the sire + grandsire of the horse (or the sire himself)
CLASS: Highest grade win by a horse
CD PACE: Fastest race at Churchill Downs by this horse
RUN PACE: Binomial method of determining current pace projection of horse for next race. Using the main Brisnet speed figures, the fastest is ‘the speed”. When using call numbers, I generally determine who has the best tactical speed.
LONG: Longest distance win by a horse
PACE PROGRESS: Any horse who has run before 9/1 and has since run faster before turning 3. Borrowed from Dave Liftin.
I add up who has most variables, and factor the top 5 for wagering. I keep others underneath this list in case the odds are very good.

WAGER GUIDELINES:
Betting $2 win with my top 5 in the Sire Future Wager. Avoid horses who are better than 6-1.
Continuing my theme from last year, I will play exactas between my top 3 and the field $22 in all.

Here’s who are in that 6-to-11 ranking…in the event I have to eliminate one of my top 5

11th: OVERANALYZE: Over Rider last time out posted a 90 Bris rating vs 40k claiming, 2nd as beaten favorite in that one. 7 offspring with pace progress. Longest win: 8.5 furlongs.
10th: WAR FRONT: 7.40 AWD is one of the better ranks here. 6 offspring with pace progress. Best class win: US Navy Flag, with 2 Grade 1 wins in GB.
Darley Dewhurst Stakes:

Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes:

9th: STREET SENSE: McKinzie’s lone run was on 10/28 vs 50k maidens, 100 Bris, winning going away by 5.5 lengths. 8.5 furlongs long distance win. Best class win: Grade 2 Nashua on 11/5 at Aqueduct, won by Avery Island.

8th: MORE THAN READY: Copper Bullet’s 2nd race was his maiden breaker, 93 Bris over 5 furlongs at CD.
Currently 4-2-2-0, including his other win, the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. Longest distance win: 8.5 furlongs.

 

7th: TIZNOW: 7.60 AWD. 6 horses with pace progress. Best win: Grade 1 Hopeful by Sporting Chance (now 3-2-1-0) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLLzW7_JseM

 

6th: UNION RAGS: 10 horses with pace progress. 8.5 furlongs longest distance win. Best class win: Grade 1 Breeders Futurity by Free Drop Billy.

 

Now for the prime top 5:
5th: CURLIN: 7.60 AWD. Run pace of 99 (Good Magic’s lifetime Bris: 105, 96, 92). Longest win: 8.5 furlongs. Best class win: Breeders Cup Juvenile, also Good Magic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ce30z5aHLA4

4th: INTO MISCHIEF: Best run at Churchill is 93, by Tiz Mischief, who ran 2nd in his 2nd maiden race. https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/kee/2017/10/7/4/race-4-msw-at-kee-on-10-7-17

 

Run pace of 93, courtesy of He’s Stylish, in maiden debut last month at Santa Anita, vs 50k maidens.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/sa/2017/10/28/8/race-8-msw-at-sa-on-10-28-17

 

3rd: TAPIT: 7.60 AWD. Best run at Churchill is also 93, by Arrival, defeating fellow 60k maidens on 11/8. Best run pace is 94, from the lone run of Airtouch, vs 83k maidens, 8/12, at Saratoga, losing by a nose. Longest distance win was 9 furlongs, by Biblical, vs 60k maidens, 11/17 at Aqueduct.
Airtouch: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/sar/2017/8/12/2/race-2-msw-at-sar-on-8-12-17

Biblical: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/aqu/2017/11/17/2/race-2-msw-at-aqu-on-11-17-17

 

2nd: SCAT DADDY: Best CD run was 90 by Combatant, defeating 60k maidens last month. 10 offspring with positive pace progress.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/usa/cd/2017/10/29/11/race-11-msw-at-cd-on-10-29-17

Longest distance win: 8.5 furlongs. Best class win: Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, by Mendelssohn, in his US debut.
http://www.breederscup.com/races/juvenile-turf

 

1st: MEGDALIA D’ORO: 7.70 AWD. 100 run pace (Bolt D’Oro’s lifetime Bris numbers: 99, 105, 94, 91). Longest distance win: 9.5 furlongs, by Gyllen at Deauville in France, winning his maiden debut.
Best class win: Bolt D’Oro’s Grade 1 Front Runner and Del Mar Futurity, here: https://youtu.be/14ud_gPCi8I

This post was written as the pools were opening. So far, the sires taking the most money are Megdalia D’Oro, all others, and Curlin. If the pools closed now (of course, they will truly change for good on Sunday once the stakes races on Saturday are resolved), here’s who I’d wager on:
Scat Daddy, Tapit, Into Mischief, Curlin (must watch those odds) and Union Rags.

Coming a bit later, my take on Pool 1 of the Derby Future Wager.

2017 sports dynasty update

Time to update the dynasty post again! 2 years since the last update, I am somewhat overdue on finding out for you what dynasties are new, in place, or ending.

I believe that the best teams and players are those who reach the top levels
and defeat the top competition, and get knocked down, and get back up again.
A dynasty is established by a player or sport who leads their group,
team/league through to the highest level of competition, through playoffs,
up the title game/series, for a period of at least 3 consecutive years.
Should that period be interrupted for 2 years, the dynasty continues, until
he/she/they cannot reach the top level a 3rd year. The dynasty can still
continue, tho, if our subject reclaims the top level from another, and only
one other to have at least 2 consecutive years at the top. Again, top
meaning league/conference title, up to the overall league championship
(World Series, Super Bowl, Stanley Cup), or, for an individual sport that
doesn’t have eliminations, winning outright.
MLB
The Yankees won 8 titles between 1996 and 2003, establishing
a dynasty only interrupted by the Indians and Angels, one year each. For the
dynasty to continue, the Yankees would have had to win the league by 2006,
or, if one other team won (leading to a dynasty) instead in the ‘gap’, and
the Yankees reclaimed from there, the streak would continue. Boston would
win in 2004, White Sox in 2005, and the Tigers in 2006, and the Yankees
didn’t get back until 2009. Boston came close to producing a dynasty,
having won in ’04 and ’07 but not winning by 2010.
Currently these teams are eligible to build a dynasty:
Kansas City (must reach the World Series in 2018 or 2019)
Cleveland (must clinch in 2018)
Houston (clinch by 2020)

Going back in time since the playoff era, here are all the dynasties in the
American League:
Orioles (1966-1971)
Athletics (1972-1974)
Yankees (1976-1981)
Yankees (1996-2003)
Minnesota comes close, winning in 1987 and 1991, interrupted by the
Athletics in the interim years, but could not win another title by 1995
(skipping the 1994 strike year). Ditto the Indians, winning in 1995 and
1997, interrupted only by those Yankees. After 2003, Cleveland would have
had to bookend that streak with a title but they have not been back since.

National League:
Reds (1970-1976)
Dodgers (1974-1981)
Cardinals (1982-1987)
Braves (1991-1999)
Giants (2010-2014)
Teams that can build dynasties:
New York (must get to the Series in 2018)
Chicago (by 2019)
Los Angeles (by 2020)

No dynasties in the playoff era met each other in the playoffs, but of
course did meet in the regular season. That would be, as we can guess,
Walter Alston’s Dodgers and Sparky Anderson’s Big Red Machine, from 1974 to
1976. The Dodgers won the season series 12-6, and in runs, 79 to 57. The
margin was different in 1975, as they won just 18 against the Reds, losing
in the run department, 69 to 64. Cincy would be the thorn in the Dodgers
side in 1976, as they would win 13 of 18, and outscore LA 77-57. Couldn’t
you just imagine what those contests in 1975 were like? And, that 3-year
period, 1974 to 1976 gave us 3 dynasty teams at once. Maybe baseball was
never better than that time. A long way down to the upstarts and parity that
baseball has given us since.
Dynasties did collide in the World Series, as you can imagine, in these
years:
1970 (Orioles over Reds)
1972 (A’s over Reds)
1974 (A’s over Dodgers)
1976 (Reds over Yankees)
1977, 1978 (Yankees over Dodgers)
1981 (Dodgers over Yankees)
1996, 1999 (Yankees over Braves)
1988 was the first year 2 teams not of dynasty type met in the Series. The
Dodgers had a singular year, and still won, thanks to Gibby, while Oakland
would get back to the series in 1990).
Let’s go further back in time to see what dynasties were made before the
playoff era.
American League:
Detroit 1907-1909
Philadelphia 1910-1914
Boston 1912-1918
NY Yankees 1921-1943
Washington 1924-1933
Philadelphia 1929-1931
Detroit 1934-1940
NY Yankees 1947-1964
And the NL:
Chicago White Stockings 1880-1886
Boston Beaneaters 1891-1898
Baltimore Orioles 1894-1896
Brooklyn (Bridegrooms-Superbas) 1890-1900
Pittsburgh Pirates (1901-1909)
NY Giants (1904-1913)
Chicago Cubs (1906-1910)
NY Giants (1921-1924)
St. Louis (1926-1934)
Chicago (1929-1938)
NY Giants (1933-1937)
Brooklyn/LA (1947-1959)
St. Louis (1942-1946)
NY Giants (1951-1954)
St. Louis (1964-1968)
LA (1963-1966)
The clashes of titans in the World Series occurred in these years. With less
teams and more familiar foes, there was a lot of repeats:
1907, 1908: Cubs/Det
1909: Det/Pitt
1910: Phila/Cubs
1911: Phila/Giants
1912: Boston/Giants
1913: Phila/Giants
1921, 1922: Giants/Yankees
1923: Yankees/Giants
1924: Washington/Giants
1926: St. Louis/Yankees
1928: Yankees/Cards
1929-30: Yankees/Phila
1931: St. Louis/Phila
1932: Yankees/Cubs
1933: Giants/Senators
1934: Cards/Tigers
1935: Tigers/Cubs
1936-7: Yankees/Giants
1938: Yankees/Cubs
1942: Cards/Yankees
1943: Yankees/Cards
1947: Yankees/Dodgers
1949: Yankees/Dodgers
1951: Yankees/Giants
1952-3: Yankees/Dodgers
1955: Dodgers/Yankees
1956: Yankees/Dodgers
1963: Dodgers/Yankees
1964: Cards/Yankees

NFL football dynasties in the Super Bowl era:
Packers (1961-1967)
Baltimore Colts (1961-1970)
Cleveland Browns (1963-1968)
Oakland Raiders (1967-1969)
Miami Dolphins (1971-1973)
Vikings (1973-1976)
Steelers (1974-1979)
Cowboys (1975-1978)
Denver Broncos (1986-1989)
Bills (1990-1993)
Cowboys (1992-1995)
Patriots (2001-present)
Steelers (2005-2010)
Indianapolis Colts (2006-2009)
So there was a period of 5 years, 1963 to 1967 that included 4 contending
teams between 2 leagues, then 1975-76 involving 3 teams, and 2006-09
involving 3 more in the same conference.
Outside of the Patriots continuing their outstanding dynasty, only the Broncos can actually build one but must get to the Super Bowl in the current or next season to make this happen. Seattle can build a dynasty by reaching the Super Bowl this season as well. Atlanta has this and 2 more seasons, Carolina has this and next season.
Note that I include teams from the AFL that participated in the AFL
championship as well.
Football dynasties have clashed in the Super Bowl in these years, Roman
numerically speaking:
I (1966 season): Packers over Chiefs
VIII (1973): Dolphins over Vikings
IX(1975): Steelers over Vikings
X (1976): Steelers over Cowboys
XIII(1978) : Steelers over Cowboys
XXVII (1992): Cowboys over Bills
XXVIII (1993): Cowboys over Bills. These two also had met in the 1993
regular season, week 2. Buffalo would go 2-0 with a late 13-10 victory in
Big D.
****
NHL:
Counting Stanley Cup finals-participants from 1967-68 to the present (the
first big expansion of the league):
Toronto (1958-66)
St. Louis (1968-1970)
Boston (1970-1978)
Philadelphia (1974-1976)
Montreal (1967-1978)
NY Islanders (1980-1984)
Edmonton (1982-1990)
Detroit (1995-1998)
NJ Devils (2000-2003)
Chicago (2009-present)
Chicago must get to the finals in 2018 to keep theirs going.
Pittsburgh can be added to this list if they can get to the finals in this or the next 2 seasons.
Tampa Bay, San Jose and Nashville also are eligilble to build dynasties.

 

Stanley Cup finals between dynasties:
1968-9: Montreal/St. Louis
1970: Boston/St. Louis
1974: Philly/Boston
1976: Montreal/Philly
1977-8: Montreal/Boston
1983: NY Islanders/Edmonton
1984: Edmonton/NY Islanders
Philly, Boston, Montreal were running dynasties at once from 1974 to 1976.
Was hockey any better than this period?
And here’s some 1974 history: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSLXSxIjfok

NBA:
Minneapolis Lakers (1949-1954)
Syracuse Nationals (1950-1955)
St. Louis Hawks (1957-1961)
Boston Celtics (1958-1969)
Minn./LA Lakers (1959-1973)
NY Knicks (1970-1973)
Washington Bullets (1975-1979)
Philly (1977-1983)
LA Lakers (1980-1991)
Boston (1981-1987)
Detroit (1988-1990)
Chicago (1991-1998)
San Antonio (1999-2007)
LA Lakers (2000-2004)
LA Lakers (2008-2010)
Miami (2011-present)
Cleveland (2015-present)
Golden State (2015-present)

Miami’s dynasty can extended through the 2018 season, if they get to the conference finals in this season (2017-18)
Cleveland and Golden State simply have to get back to the finals in the next 3 seasons to prolong their dynasty.
Eligible teams to complete a dynasty: San Antonio (must get to the finals in 2018)

NBA Finals that included a pair of dynasties:
1950: Minn/Syracuse
1954: Minn/Syracuse
1958: St. Louis/Boston
1959: Boston/Minn
1960-1: Boston/St. Louis
1962-3, 1965-6, 1968-69: Boston/LA
1970: NY Knicks/LA
1972: LA/NY Knicks
1973: NY Knicks/LA
1980, 1982: LA/Philly
1983: Philly/LA
1984: Boston/LA
1985, 1987: LA/Boston
1988: LA/Detroit
1989: Detroit/LA
1991: Chicago/LA
2015-2017 Golden State/Cleveland

Along with the recent Miami/Cleveland/Golden State troika, there were 3 rivalries ongoing in 1959-1561, and in 1981-1983. Imagine the
vitriol between the Sixers and Celtics. Actually, do more than imagine:

 

Now we’ll swing over to NASCAR, focusing on the Sprint Cup and its own
predecessors:
Ned Jarrett (1961-65)
Richard Petty (1964-67)
David Pearson (1966-69)
Richard Petty (1971-79)
Cale Yarborough (1976-78)
Darrell Waltrip (1981-1985)
Dale Earnhardt, Sr (1986-94)
Jeff Gordon (1995-2001)
Tony Stewart (2002-11)
Jimmie Johnson (2006-present)
Drivers who can build a dynasty: Kevin Harvick, who can win this year or next.
The Stewart/Johnson battle, 6 years in all) was the first battle of
dynasties since Petty/Yarborough, which put the sport on the national map
and beyond, 1976-1978.
http://www.racing-reference.com says that Stewart and Johnson have raced in the
same 420 races. In that span, Johnson managed the better positioning, wins,
top 5s and 10.
Here are the 3 races where either of them finished 1-2 to each other with
the closest finishes:
2013 Coke Zero 400 at Daytona http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKN4Wwc5qS8
2006 Aaron’s 499 at Talladega http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD5zKeqOZ6o
2009 Coke Zero http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lgd23wLlltw
And as for Petty/Yarborough, they dueled for 520 races, from 1959 to 1988.
And the stats are quite even:
Petty had 274 better finishes to Cale’s 246, and had more top 5’s (255-243),
top 10s (324-300), and better finishing position (11.4-12.3). Cale outpoints
the King in actual wins, though: 82 to 75.
The closest finish between them in a 1-2 finish was in 1976, the Music City
USA 420, in Nashville:

 

IndyCar (since 1996):
Dario Franchitti (2007-2011)
Eligible to build a dynasty: Simon Pageneau, Josef Newgarden.
Scott Dixon had 3 years to build a dynasty, but finished 3 in the season.

F1 (since 1950):
Juan Manuel Fangio (1951-57)
Jackie Stewart (1969-73)
Alain Prost (1985-89)
Ayrton Senna (1988-1991)
Michael Schumacher (2000-04)
Sebastian Vettel (2010-2013)
Lewis Hamilton (2014-present)
Eligible to build a dynasty: Nico Rosberg

Interesting that the Prost/Senna duel were the only dynasties that ever
clashed here. How did they do in the head-to-head? Glad you asked: They
were part of 141 races together, with Prost getting the better of Senna 71
to 70. Prost also ranks ahead on all the other categories. In 1988, either
driver finished 1-2 to each other 10 times; in 1989, 4 such races.
The closest 1-2 finish between the McLaren-Honda owned racers was the 1988
Hungarian Grand Prix. You watch and guess who won. Here’s Part 1

Part 2:

 

For tennis I’m focusing on the men’s singles Tour championship, currently
stylized as the ATP World Tour finals.
Ilie Nastase (1971-1975)
Ivan Lendl (1981-1987)
Pete Sampras (1991-1999)
Boris Becker (1992-1995)
Roger Federer (2003-2011)
Novak Djokovic (2012-present)
Novak has 2 years (this and next) to extend his dynasty. Andy Murray has 3 years (until 2019) to build to his 1 title.
1994 and 2012 were the only times two players currently in a dynasty met in
the finals of the ATP championship match
1994: Sampras/Becker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fAh3_T5EZ0
2012: Federer/Djokovic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-HgQD61IMc
As for the ladies, here’s the WTA Championship dynasties:
Chris Evert (1972-1977)
Martina Navratilova (1978-1986)
Steffi Graf (1987-1996)
Monica Seles (1990-1992)
Serena Williams (2008-present)
Petra Kvitova, who won in 2011, is the only player who can build up a
dynasty.
Graf/Seles never met in the WTA Final but they’ve locked horns 6 times in
Grand Slam finals: Seles won twice at the French, once at the Australian.
Graf was the victor in their lone matchup at Wimbledon, and two wins at the
US Open.
Here’s how the 1992 French Open turned out between them:

Breeders Cup Classic 2017 prediction

BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC, 10 furlongs, $6 million, 3YO+.

ARROGATE had that nice 7 win streak, capped by the Dubai World Cup. Since then, a 4th in the San Diego, and 2nd in the Pacific Classic. His 124 in last year’s Travers remains the best score for this field considering the distance. Prior winner off layoff. Considerable bounce risk given his increase of 16 in Bris last time out. One of two horses I’m forgiving for a wide or tough trip yet fast performance. Best turn time of the field…gained 1.4 seconds between last two races, :24.1 last race.
My odds: 6-1.
Prediction: Not in top 6
Winning pace: slightly slower than average overall.

War Decree debuts in the US, first time Lasix. Winner in GB and Ireland, twice at Graded levels. One of 2 horses who have created a small new top against last year’s best score. This was acheived last time out at Dundalk on 9/29.
My odds: 22-1
Prediction: 6th.

Win The Space with a pretty decent record running in Cali. 0-3 at Del Mar. Gained 4 lengths on the leader last time out in the Awesome Again…finished 3rd with 100 Bris.
My odds: none.
Prediction: Worse than 6th.
Winning pace: average throughout

War Story has prior win first off layoff.Winner of the Brooklyn 3 races back; prior win was back in January in the Queens Count on a good inner track at Aqueduct. Increased by 6 points to 98 last time out in the Woodward. Waiting now 8 weeks to stretch out another furlong. 5 works, 1 local, 4 very fast, 1 bullet.
My odds: 7-5. Overlay
Prediction: winner.
Winning pace: Slow at first call, average at 2nd.

Gun Runner: 1st or 2nd in every race since 9/16, 8 races in all, and 9 races with a triple-digit Bris. Prior winner first off layoff. He’s the other horse influenced by a small new top. 114 win last out in the Woodward, ahead of last year’s 112. Gained 7 points from prior, so he might bounce. Waiting 8 weeks to stretch out. :24.1 turn time last race.
My odds: 9-1
Prediction: 4th
Winning pace: slightly faster than average throughout.

Mubtaahij won the Awesome Again last time out..first win in nearly 2 years. Best AWD numbers in the field (Dubawi/Pennegale, out of Pennekamp). Splitted time between US and Dubai. Good consistent runs, 10 of 18 in the money.
My odds: Not considered.
Prediction: Worse than 6th.

Churchill has 7 wins in 12 races, debuts in the US with Lasix for the first time. No real competitive numbers or form to consider him.
My odds: 18-1
Prediction: 5th

West Coast is 8-6-2-0, winning this year’s Travers, PA Derby, Los Alamitos Derby, Easy Goer. 108 and 112 ahead of 96 amidst her last 3…possible bounce risk. Also lacks evidence to dominate in any one variable in this great field.
My odds: none
Prediction: worse than 6th.
Winning pace: slightly faster than average throughout.

Gunnevara 9 of 13 in the money, serious pro horse who ran 2nd in the Travers with big lifetime best of 109. Could be forgiven for a tough trip in that one, tho a big bounce risk. Prior winner first off layoff. Notably he’s the only deep closer in the field.
My odds: 18-1. Almost enough for an overlay pick.
Prediction: 3rd.
Winning pace: Average at first call, slow 2nd.

Pavel the least experience of these, but is 4-2-0-1, with a win in the Smarty Jones. Lifetime speed figures: 95, 96, 100, 108. Bounce risk considerable.
My odds: none
Prediction: Out of the top 6.
Winning pace: Very slow throughout.

Collected 11-8-1-0, winner of 4 straight. 111 lifetime best 2 races back. Last out 110 here in the Pacific Classic, best Del Mar race of this field. Prior first win off layoff. Easily the speed of the field, best pace pattern as well. :24.1 turn time last out.
My odds: 6-1.
Prediction: 2nd.
Winning pace: slightly faster than average throughout.

Top 4: 4-11-9-5
Overlays: 4, 9

Breeders Cup 2017 Saturday picks (minus the Classic)

Continuing now with the Saturday Breeders Cup card…
14 Hands Winery BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE FILLIES, 8.5
furlongs, 2YO fillies, $2 million.
Top 3 are 7-13-9.. Moonshine Memories,
Separationofpowers, and Alluring Star. Overlays:
Caledonia Road, Blonde Bomber, Stainless. I figure
this race is more about the favored horses, and less
about value..but here’s what I am seeing:
Caledonia Road was 2nd in the Frizette with a 100, this
ahead of maiden debut of 89 over a sloppy track. Those
numbers are fastest of these. The Frizette trip was
slightly to very wide out late. This early closer had
very quick trips to rely upon to close.
Blonde Bomber took 5 tries to break maiden, then won a
75k stakes event with a nice 94. 5 straight gains in
pace. Waiting since 9/30 to stretch from 8 furlongs.
:24 turn time from last race.
Stainless was 3rd in the Schuylerville, then 4th in the
Adirondack, then 2nd in the Jessamin, debuting on turf
tdhen.
Most likely race thus far to produce favorites.

BREEDERS CUP TURF SPRINT, 3YO+, $1 million, 5 furlongs
on turf. Top 3: 3-6-10 Morning-line top 2 in Lady
Aurelia and Marsha. For 3rd I like Hogy. Overlays:
Stormy Liberal, Cotai Glory, Paquita Coqueta (AE).
Stormy Liberal twice has won first after layoff. Gained
a length on leader by 2nd call last time out.
Cotai Glory comes out of a pair of presumably lifetime
best speed figures.
Paquita Coqueta has shipping wins, a prior win on the
track, and gained a bit on the leader in her last
effort.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT, 7 furlongs, fillies/mares 3YO+,
for purse of $1000000, ”Top 3 are 4-1-11….Finest
City,Carina Mia, and heavily favored Unique Bella.
Overlays: Finest
City, Carina Mia, Highway Star, and Constellation.
Finest City has 15 placings in 19 races including the
Santa Monica and last years’ BC Filly/Mare Sprint. 102
in that BC race is fastest of this field for Del Mar.
Best turn time and turn time gain of the field too.
Carina Mia has wins in the Acorn and the Shine Again.
Was 2nd in a stakes race at Belmont 9/24, running a 96,
somewhat wide throughout.
Highway Star has 8 wins in 13 lifetime, including the
Gallant Bloom, the Ruffian, the Distaff and the Go For
Wand. Has several shipping wins, and switches back to
Angel Arroyo, regular rider.
Constellation has placed 11 of 12 races, won the La
Brea, the Phoenix, Ruthless and Furlough. Gained half
length on leader last time out, and worked out quite
well in prep; 5 works since last, 1 bullet.

 

FILLY & MARE TURF, 9 furlongs fillies/mares 3YO+, $2
million. Top 3: 10-5-13 Queen’s Trust (overlay),
Wuheida, Goodyearforroses (overlay)

Queen’s Trust has a decent record, but 2 wins in 13
lifetime, is the defending champion of this race. She
ran last year’s version at Santa Anita, nosing out a
win with a 109 Bris score. Frankie Dettori rode her to
victory, and is back in the saddle today. Has a prior
win while dropping 4 lbs in weight carried.
Wuheida makes her US debut after competing well across
Europe. Won her first 2 races, one a Grade 1 event in
France. Could be recovering well in pace, ever since a
nice showing first after layoff in July. Only filly to
be under influence of new small top (possibly a Bris
near 100 last two races). First time Lasix doesn’t hurt
either.
Goodyearforroses had a 3 win streak going through
March, then mixed results thereafter. Great AWD numbers
(Azamour/Guilia, by Galileo….notable Irish pedigree).
Proved best turn time of this field.4 works at sA, all
very fast, one a bullet.

SPRINT, 6 furlongs, 3YO+, $1.5 million. Top 3: 1-3-10
Calculator (overlay), American Pastime (overlay),
Imperial Hint. Totally going against favorites here.
Calculator was 2nd here last out in the Pat O Brien
with a lifetime-best matching 103. Owns prior win first
after layoff. Best turn time of this field.
American Pastime gained big in speed figure, 99 to 107,
coming out of older claiming company and into a Grade 3
event. Ran a bit slow at the beginning and was somewhat
wide in the Gallant Bob, but was fast enough to close
for 2nd. 2 bullet works.
Imperial Hint has 6 wins in his last 7, all convincing.
Good AWD numbers (Imperialism/Royal Hint, out of
Lahint). 111 last out is a new small top from his 2016
best mark.Definitely the speed of the field.

MILE, 3YO+, $2 million.
Top 3: 5-10-3 World Approval, Ribchester, Mr. Roary
(overlay). Om also an overlay here. Favorites likely
to win out here, so probably skipping this race.
Mr. Roary 0-5 at Del Mar. 4 works in prep, 1 at Del
Mar, 1 a bullet.
Om 16-19 lifetime in the money, and all 6 of his runs
at Del Mar. Hasn’t won since December of 2015. I am
banking on his works too…4 in prep, 2 bullets.

JUVENILE, 8.5 furlongs, 2YO colts/geldings, $2 million.
Top 3: 12-7-1 Hollywood Star, The Tabulator, US
Navy Flag. All 3 are overlays.
Hollywood Star won his debut vs maidens, 2nd in the
Saratoga Special, 2nd in the Iroquois, all with solid
pace numbers to each other. Gained nicely on the leader
last time out. 5 works, most of them very fast
including one local.
The Tabulator is undefeated in 3, including the
aforementioned Iroquois and the Prairie Gold Juvenile
(one of my Enlightened Trail races). Like Hollywood
Star, owns prior victory first after layoff. 5 works,
one local.
US Navy Flag is the lone European entry, with scores in
Ireland and England, 3 win race streak. Best AWD
numbers (War Front/Misty For Me, out of Galileo).
Appears to have the fastest speed figures. First time
Lasix for his US debut.

TURF, 12 furlongs, $4 million, 3YO+. Top 3: 3-2-10
Highland Reel, Bullards Alley, Fanciful Angel. Latter 2
are overlays, along with Cliffs Of Moher and Bigger
Picture. Could be a very tasty wagering opportunity,
with the ML favorite Ulysses scratched.
Bullards Alley comes out of an amazing 120 in his
Canadian International win; easily best numbers for
surface and distance. By default he must be the speed
of the field. Does he bounce?
Fanciful Angel began his career in Europe and Dubai,
with wins in both those continents. 3rd US race, having
finished 2nd in the Arlington Million and another Grade
1 event last out at Belmont 5 weeks ago. His run last
out was 107, but somewhat wide in his closing process.
Being that he gained well at 1st and 2nd call first off
layoff and claim, I must rank him high.
Cliffs of Moher makes his US debut, first time Lasix, a
win at GB and Ireland already. Best AWD numbers
(Galileo/Wave, out of Dansili). Only horse having to
recover from a bounce, and I think he will. One of 2
horses carries 122 lbs instead of the standard 126,
being a 3YO.
Bigger Picture 10 wins in 27 lifetime, runs pretty consistently overall. Won the United Nations in July with a 111, and the JB Conley with a 95 earlier this year. 6 works to prepare, 3 fast ones, 1 bullet.

Next post goes horse-for-horse in the Classic!