Charles Town race analysis & picks, race 2-9, 10-12-19

I joined the latest contest from The Racing Biz, with 8 of the 9 races on the Charles Town card today as part of it.
Contestants get to use 2 sets of entries. I’m going with winners in set 1, 2nd place predictions in set 2. Here’s how I’m going to play them, prior to seeing scratches and changes.

Race 2:
2-4-8: Killa Dee, Loving Touch, Scottish Man. Overlays: Merry Merry Mojo.
Scottish Man the value horse behind chalk. Had to shake off considerable rust, being away 6 months and not only facing older horses for the first time, but also getting blinkers for the first time too. He was never in the race, that one a 4.5 furlong effort here at CT. I say he bounces back, and gets some room and patience to close late. The pace will need to be somewhat slow by the far turn for this to happen.

Race 3: 8-10-5 The Better One, Twirling Owen, Manarola. Overlays: The Better One, Q’s Song
The Better One is still a maiden after 2 4.5 furlong races, against statebred fillies.She made modest gain from the back vs the leader last time out and also improved at 1st call, first race after a nearly 3 month layoff. I have to think there is more in the tank.

Race 4: 9-2-5 Parisian Diva, Sherwood Lady, Ocean Lilly. Overlays are the latter two: Sherwood Lady is a pure sprinter and has the best tactical speed of the race. She owns two wins from stretching out in distance, and happens to be the lone filly stretching out here. For the 7 furlong distance, sprinters have a nice advantage, winning 42% of the time, matched with a 16% strike for all horses running in the first 3 posts. Ocean Lilly cuts back from a route race last time, and she had shown some gain vs leader again 29k allowance horses here last month.

Race 5: 4-6-1 Dr. Tucker, Ihearyouknockin, Grumpelstiltskin. Dr. Tucker is the lone overlay here. This 6YO gelding has 5 placings in 7 races lifetime, all here. Raced straight off layoff 4 of those times, with 2 wins. Owns 1 prior stretchout win. Gets Jose Mantano back to ride, currently at 23% for the meet. Dr. Tucker has waited since Memorial Day weekend to race again. She’s also the lone late closer, and will need a slow pace throughout, especially late, to contend and win. 4 works in prep, the last 2 being bullets.

Race 6: 5-6-3: Aaron’s Tap, Rescue Five, Blue Plaid. Overlays are the latter two. Rescue Five has runs of 82 to 84 in his last 3 races, best such pattern of this field. Small new top of 84 acheived on 8/31. Stayed in contention last time out in the Last Enchantment here on 9/21, doing so minus the weight allowance for jockey Sunday Diaz Jr the race prior. Blue Plaid had bounced from 77 to 67 in going from statebred to open company and non winners of 3. It’s a bit troubling that this sprinter hasn’t been on the lead for his last three races. Track bias could be helpful: Pure sprinters are winning at a 67% clip for the 4.5 furlong distance.

Race 7: 1-2-6 Prime Lime, Groomed To Rock, Nellysford. All 3 are overlays. I see serious money being made here.
Prime Line has won 3 of her last 4. Set a big new top of 89 last time out. This pure sprinter has the best tactical speed of the field. Last 3 1st call numbers: 97, 98, 91. Waiting since 9/8 to race with the stretchout from 5.5 to 7 furlongs. 2 works at CT in that time frame. Prime Line is my best bet for a win today.
Groomed To Rock has placed in 19 of 31 races lifetime, all at this track. Best AWD numbers (Rock Hound/Chelsea Groomstick, out of Groomstick). Jumped up in pace from 64 to 71 after dropping from 28k allowance horses to 15k statebred optional claimers. Had a somewhat wide turn last race, which may have cost her the win, though maintained some progression on eventual winner throughout.
Nellysford has an interesting up-down pattern in her last 7 races, with the signs pointing up today.

Race 8 10-6-4: Buff’s Eye View, Runnin’toluvya, Jeffery Scott. Overlays: Buff’s Eye View, Jeffery Scott.
Buff’s Eye View barely qualifies as an overlay, given his morning-line odds. Only horse here to be on influence of small new top that’s past year’s best. Ran 83 last time out on 9/21 vs 28k allowance horses who were non-winners of two. Ran wide in the mud in that race, yet still closed to be 2nd. He showed improvement in each call with this 1st effort after 7 weeks away. Only early closer of this field.
Jeffery Scott had run in that same race on 9/21, finishing 5th. He was also running on layoff, tho was away since early May, and did show gain on the leader throughout and at each call.

Race 9: 4-6-1 Brass Magnolia, T Rex Express, Cameron Steel.
Brass Magnolia is the lone overlay. Since a spring overlay, she’s run consistently in the 60s to a high of 71 two races back. Jose Montano returns to ride her. Waiting about a month to stretch out half a furlong. 2 fast works here at CT in prep.

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