Preakness Stakes analysis, selections

 

1 WAR OF WILL
Odds: 44-1
Rank: 8th
Placed 8th in the KY Derby, finishing with another 94 score,
close to his career best. Best AWD numbers (War
Front/Visions Of Clarity, out of Sadler’s Wells). One of four
horses who will be taking less money than others, which
makes his chalk position somewhat weaker.

2 BOURBON WAR
Odds: 10-1
Rank: 4th
Last raced in the Florida Derby back on 3/30; stretches out
half a furlong. Never finding much success in stakes races.
Only horse in the field with success first off layoff or a
winning debut race. This late closer has the best tactical
speed of the field. He requires an average pace early that
slows down later. Adds blinkers for the first time. Will
likely be ignored in the wagering.

3 WARRIOR’S CHANGE is one of three I’m absolutely
throwing out. Winner of his 4th maiden race and a 75k
non-winners of two OC race last out. Last race, in fact, was
a huge 99. I like the big number tho also must respect the
bounce pattern.

4 IMPROBABLE
Odds: 44-1
Rank: 9th.
Got 4th place last time out in the KY Derby. Best BRIS
speed for the distance. Besides this, no real factor today.

5 OWENDALE
This horse I’m considering a throwout. Won the Grade 3
Lexington last time out with a big 99. Prior, he won the
Risen Star; prior to that, an 84 in the Grade 2 Risen Star on
2/16. Big bounce risk here which I fully anticipate.

6 MARKET KING
Odds: 14-1. Overlay.
Rank: 7th.
Cold rank with bettors, finishing way out in the Blue Grass
last time out, and 3rd in the Grade 2 Rebel before this, with
a new top of 88. He is the lone sprinter of the field.
Probably needs to run with a fast pace all throughout. 4
works in prep, all very fast.

7 ALWAYSMINING
Odds: 14-1
Rank: 5th
7 of 12 lifetime, including 6 straight, all in classy races at
Laurel. Definitely the speed of the field, with scores
ranging from 87 to 99 in those 6 wins. Last 3 races: 99, 99,
98. Gains 4 lbs to carry for Daniel Centeno. He had
broken maiden with the same adjustment last year.

8 SIGNALMAN
Odds: 2-1
Rank: 1st
The horse I project to win hasn’t run since being 3rd in the
Blue Grass on 4/6, with a strong 97 and a wide trip early. 4
works in prep, all very fast, with 1 bullet.

9 BODEXPRESS
Odds: 7-1 Overlay.
Rank: 3rd
He was placed 13th in the KY Derby, bouncing in pace to
83. Prior to this, he scored a small new top, running 2nd in
the Florida Derby. I’d play the bounceback angle on him.

10 EVERFAST
This is the 3rd of my throwouts, no surprise in that his
morning-line odds are 50-1. I actually cannot find any
angle he has advantages on.

11 LAUGHING FOX
Odds 14-1
Rank: 6th
Running only at Oaklawn Park since turning 3, he comes
out of a small new top of 96 in the OP Invitiational. Prior,
he scored a 90 in the Arkansas Derby. Slight bounce risk
here. Ricardo Santana Jr returns to ride after RA Vaqzuez’s
turn last time out. He will likely be ignored in the wagering.

12 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE
Odds: 4-1
Rank: 2nd
1st or 2nd in all of his races save his maiden debut. Last
race was a 2nd place finish, 97 BRIS, in the Grade 3
Lexington. He had some trouble early in the race; maybe he
could have won. Great pace pattern; last 3 races were 97
to 99.

13 WIN WIN WIN is also considered a toss. 10th last time
out in the KY Derby. Just doesn’t rank with these horses on
any of my variables.

Top 3: 8-12-9. Signalman, Anothertwistafate, Bodexpress.
Overlays: Market King, Signalman, Bodexpress.
Taking less money than others: War Of Will, Bourbon Of
War, Laughing Fox.
ABC chart: 8/12,9,2/1,4,6,7,11

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s