2019 Kentucky Oaks undercard picks

As promised, here’s my take on the Oaks Day undercard:

Race 1: 8-3-9: Luck Of The Draw, Off Sixes, Coworker.

Off Sixes first of the value horses to be considered. Showed exploding/forging pace in last race with an 85 BRIS score, 2nd time beyond 1 mile. In fact, last 3 races have best pattern of these horses, all runs in the 80s. Ran 3 wide in last start yet finished 2nd. Prior win while cutting back in distance, only horse here to do so.

Race 2: 2-1-7 Awestruck, Annathela, Sultry.
Sultry recovering in pace following an 11-month layoff. Lone late closer of this field. Posted an 84 last time out, with a slow start, in a race she might have otherwise won.
Race 3: 3-1-4: Lady Kate, Shacklette, Mo Gayle.
Shacklette owns the best work tab of the field; 2 races here at CD, both very fast.

Race 4: 15-9-3. A race with many AE and MTO horses, so this is very difficult to get correct until changes are solid. Valdolobo has raced exclusively in top company in GB. Makes his US debut as well as receiving Lasix for the first time. Waiting since last October to stretch from a sprint race. A good deal of works as well in prep.

Race 5: 2-4-9 Proud Emma, Break Even, Mother Mother.
Proud Emma owns best AWD numbers of these: Include/Debutante Dreamer, out of Proud Citizen. Full pace recovery since 2 month layoff. Small new top of 90 last time out, 4th in the 9 furlong Gazelle at Aqueduct. She ran a bit wide in the turns, so there’s some possibility she could have finished better. Mike Smith returns to ride her, pilot of 2 of her 3 lifetime wins.

Race 6: 5-6-7 Concrete Rose, New Roo, Destiny Over Fate
Concrete Rose has 3 wins in 4, racing in the 80s range in BRIS speed. Winner of the Jessamin and Florida Oaks, 8th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. I like the close pace pattern of her races. Also, she’s the lone early closer, requiring a fast early place that slows somewhat.

Race 7: 10-4-8 Silver Dust, Casino Star, Seeking The Soul.
Silver Dust enters with 4 works at CD, each very fast, one a bullet.

Race 8: 2-7-3 Blue Prize, Teresa Z, Divine Miss Grey

Teresa Z had won the Monmouth Oaks in 2017, and the Obeah and 2 other stakes events in 2018. In fact, 2 races back, she posted a strong 104. Best AWD numbers here (Smart Strike/With Flying Colors, out of AP Indy). Only early closer in the field; she needs a fast pace early that collapses to an average pace late. 5 works since last, 3 very fast, 1 a bullet.

Race 9: 3-11-15 Cummings, Tiz Mischief, Soul Streit.
Cummings 1st off layoff goes up in class vs optional claimers. Forged new lifetime best 2 races back with an 89. Best workouts of the field…5 in all, 2 at CD, 3 straight bullets.
Watch for revisions of these picks by Friday. I will cover races 1 through 9 plus the KY Oaks via twitter at @idealisticstats.

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