Preakness Stakes analysis, selections


Odds: 44-1
Rank: 8th
Placed 8th in the KY Derby, finishing with another 94 score,
close to his career best. Best AWD numbers (War
Front/Visions Of Clarity, out of Sadler’s Wells). One of four
horses who will be taking less money than others, which
makes his chalk position somewhat weaker.

Odds: 10-1
Rank: 4th
Last raced in the Florida Derby back on 3/30; stretches out
half a furlong. Never finding much success in stakes races.
Only horse in the field with success first off layoff or a
winning debut race. This late closer has the best tactical
speed of the field. He requires an average pace early that
slows down later. Adds blinkers for the first time. Will
likely be ignored in the wagering.

3 WARRIOR’S CHANGE is one of three I’m absolutely
throwing out. Winner of his 4th maiden race and a 75k
non-winners of two OC race last out. Last race, in fact, was
a huge 99. I like the big number tho also must respect the
bounce pattern.

Odds: 44-1
Rank: 9th.
Got 4th place last time out in the KY Derby. Best BRIS
speed for the distance. Besides this, no real factor today.

This horse I’m considering a throwout. Won the Grade 3
Lexington last time out with a big 99. Prior, he won the
Risen Star; prior to that, an 84 in the Grade 2 Risen Star on
2/16. Big bounce risk here which I fully anticipate.

Odds: 14-1. Overlay.
Rank: 7th.
Cold rank with bettors, finishing way out in the Blue Grass
last time out, and 3rd in the Grade 2 Rebel before this, with
a new top of 88. He is the lone sprinter of the field.
Probably needs to run with a fast pace all throughout. 4
works in prep, all very fast.

Odds: 14-1
Rank: 5th
7 of 12 lifetime, including 6 straight, all in classy races at
Laurel. Definitely the speed of the field, with scores
ranging from 87 to 99 in those 6 wins. Last 3 races: 99, 99,
98. Gains 4 lbs to carry for Daniel Centeno. He had
broken maiden with the same adjustment last year.

Odds: 2-1
Rank: 1st
The horse I project to win hasn’t run since being 3rd in the
Blue Grass on 4/6, with a strong 97 and a wide trip early. 4
works in prep, all very fast, with 1 bullet.

Odds: 7-1 Overlay.
Rank: 3rd
He was placed 13th in the KY Derby, bouncing in pace to
83. Prior to this, he scored a small new top, running 2nd in
the Florida Derby. I’d play the bounceback angle on him.

This is the 3rd of my throwouts, no surprise in that his
morning-line odds are 50-1. I actually cannot find any
angle he has advantages on.

Odds 14-1
Rank: 6th
Running only at Oaklawn Park since turning 3, he comes
out of a small new top of 96 in the OP Invitiational. Prior,
he scored a 90 in the Arkansas Derby. Slight bounce risk
here. Ricardo Santana Jr returns to ride after RA Vaqzuez’s
turn last time out. He will likely be ignored in the wagering.

Odds: 4-1
Rank: 2nd
1st or 2nd in all of his races save his maiden debut. Last
race was a 2nd place finish, 97 BRIS, in the Grade 3
Lexington. He had some trouble early in the race; maybe he
could have won. Great pace pattern; last 3 races were 97
to 99.

13 WIN WIN WIN is also considered a toss. 10th last time
out in the KY Derby. Just doesn’t rank with these horses on
any of my variables.

Top 3: 8-12-9. Signalman, Anothertwistafate, Bodexpress.
Overlays: Market King, Signalman, Bodexpress.
Taking less money than others: War Of Will, Bourbon Of
War, Laughing Fox.
ABC chart: 8/12,9,2/1,4,6,7,11

Preakness Day stakes undercard analysis/picks 5/18/19


Top 3: 7-2-6 In The Lee, Inflexibility, Hogans Holiday
Overlay: In The Lee, Hogan’s Holiday
Odds: In The Lee 7-5; Inflexibility 4-1; Hogan’s Holiday 7-1; I’m So Fancy/Viva Vegas 10-1; Mitchell Road 14-1
Money movers: Horses taking more $: I’m So Fancy, Mitchell Road
Horses taking less: Hogans Holiday, In The Lee, Viva Vegas, Barkaa
ABC chart: 7,2/6/1,8,4

In The Lee has 4 wins in 10 races lifetime. Gained from 77 BRIS to 88 last time out in an 87k allowance at Keeneland. One prior win was from a 5 lb. gain in weight carried. It was 1st off layoff, with a gain at 2nd call and some improvement on the leader at that point. Takes on 4 lbs more today. Waiting 5 weeks to stretch out in distance.

Hogan’s Holiday has 5 wins in 15. Won a 75k ungraded stakes event last November, and had better success vs optional claimers. Fully recovered in pace by early March, following a 7 week layoff. She reached his peak with a 96 in the Grade 3 Honey Fox. That race was a small new top that she’s still under influence of.


Top 3: 8-3-7 Preamble, Malpais, Pyron
Overlay: Lexitonian
Odds: Preamble 2-1; Malpais 4-1; Gladiator King/Pyron 5-1; Lexitonian 9-1
Horses taking less $:Lexitonian, Gladiator King
ABC chart: 8/3,7/6,1

No real value in this race, as I do predict a chalk finish. The one I like here for value is Lexitonian. Winner of his maiden debut with an 81, he dropped to 70, finishing 6th in the Sanford. With 7 weeks off he finished 5th and 78 BRIS in a 75k optional claimer. Following trainer change from Todd Pletcher to Jack Sisterson, plus 6 months off, Lexitonian raced at Churchill on Derby Day, same class as previous race. He did finish 5th but scored an impressive 91. He had to run wide in that race, so it’s possible he could have ran faster.
You have to credit him for his performance first after layoff.

Top 3: 4-10-7 Paret, O Dionysus, Real Story
Overlays:These three, plus Just Howard
Odds: Just Howard 5-2; Paret 3-1; O Dionysus 7-2; Real Story 9-2; Catholic Boy 19-1
Horses taking more $: Just Howard, Real Story, O Dionysus, Inspector Lynley
Horses taking less $: Catholic Boy.
ABC chart: 2,7,10,4/12
Catholic Boy appears to be a false favorite in a race with a number of directions for value.
Paret has exclusively raced in Australia, in top handicap event. He gets Lasix for the first time, and takes a positive drop in weight carried. He had previously won with this variable in place. He’s also waiting since March to stretch out.

O Dionysus had won 2 events last year at Del Mar and an optional claimer here at Pimlico prior. Last time out in the 100k Henry Clark, he ran a small new top of 94, albeit wide throughout. Running first after layoff, he surpassed his prior 2nd call scores, plus gained a bit on the leader.
Real Story was 2nd last time out in the Henry Clark, first time vs 3YOs. Prior to this, 2nd again in an 75k OC race. 9th prior to this in the Secretariat. Won a Grade 3 race at Arlington on 7/7. Last 3 races, the BRIS scores were 93 through 96. Only horse with exploding/forging pace in the field. I rate this sprinter as the true speed. His own effort last time out in the Henry Clark was also a bit compromised, as he had to survive bumping at the start.

Just Howard has had rather mixed blessings in his career. Last won vs 25k optional claimers last August with a dazzling 100, best of the distance of today’s field. Prior to that he had won the 2017 Commonwealth Derby and the Find, both at Laurel. Best AWD numbers here (English Channel/Aruban Sandwich, out of Alphabet Soup). He also had a quality run in the Henry Clark, and had to be steadied late in the race. He ran with improved numbers first after layoff, and gained 1 length on leader by the 2nd call.

Preakness thoughts in the next post!

Pimlico stakes selections 5/17/19

Typing this, 11 days after the debacle that was the result of this year’s Kentucky Derby, I feel a bit shell-shocked. How does this happen, at this time, this DQ, and the fallout of drama after? How must this incident continue to be so controversial? People fear the breaking of tradition, as though something were truly lost. The loss, in this case, is that this American spectacle was tarnished because of a DQ, and that it happened to the very marginal favorite, in a race with so many suitors, in adverse weather. And, the eventual winner was 65-1. Not exactly a storybook ending like Mine That Bird.
Or, is it? Maybe it is a script. Maybe the favorite had to win, yet again, and still the trailing horse takes down the money and causes uproar in Vegas.
I am hurt by all this drama. I’m also hurt because I lost all that money I wagered that day and the future wager pools. The only way I would have won is if Improbable would have nosed out Tacitus. Field selections from the future wagers are treated as coupled entries for sake of the race. Maximum Security was one of my exacta plays from the Pool 3 field, before and after certain horses. Country House was as well. But Tacitus was already a player with his own odds, and that 3rd place positioning cost me that exacta.
I also lost out in the KY Oaks. In fact, Serengeti Empress, the winner, was not in my final 14 horse selection. She had to have enough points from her division. She did have some points for winning the Rachel Alexandra. By virtue of nothing more than an increase in purse, I rank the Fair Grounds Oaks the one points race for that track. She did not score in that race. From her lack of points, she should not have been in the actual Oaks.
This breach of my system is the reason I have the system in place. I deal with one representative race per track (Breeders Cup the lone exception). The sport can’t be top-heavy with multiple races at one track, let alone one geographic region, to tip the scaling of points for the real Trail.

With all that typed, the drama does find its way to Baltimore and to Pimlico, which may or may not be . the future site of the Preakness Stakes beyond 2020. In this blog I’m covering 4 of the races for the Friday card, and 4 more for Saturday.

Top 3: 7-4-11: Miss Imperial, Please Flatter Me, Fighting Mad
Overlays: Miss Imperial, Please Flatter Me, Best Kept Secret (also-eligible)
Odds: Miss Imperial 5-2; Please Flatter Me 9-2; Fighting Mad 5-1; Midnight Fantasy 9-1; Bye Bye J/Best Kept Secret 11-1; Covfefe 14-1.
$ movers: Taking less usual: Congrats Gal, Miss Imperial, Tomlin, Fighting Mad. No horses will be taking more than normal in the wagering.
ABC chart: 7/4,10,11,12,13/3,5,8,9

Miss Imperial finished 5th in her debut, then after a 3 month layoff won her next maiden start, and an optional-claimer race following claim by Jason Servis. Sticking with Manuel Franco and racing sprints at Aqueduct, she finished 2nd in the Ruthless and Cicada Stakes. Peaked last time out with a 93 score, a small new top beyond her 2YO best. She appears to have the best tactical speed of the field (last 3 2nd call numbesrs were triple-digits). Last 3 Brisnet numbers overall: 90, 88, 93. Ran typically wide race in her last 4, so there’s every reason she can improve from her last effort.

Please Flatter Me won her first 3 races, including the Blue Mountain Juvenile and the Gin Talking, then was 4th last out in the Busher, her route debut. 5 works at Pimlico, 1 very fast.

Best Kept Secret enters if there are scratches. Big forward gain in pace to 89, winning a 30k allowance race at Evangeline Downs last month. She had switched from route to sprint for that race. She is a bounce risk but she had won with a cutback in distance, so 1 less furlong may help her chances that much more.

Top 3: 4-5-9 Cover Photo, Dogtag, Introduced
Overlays: Cover Photo, Souper Escape
Odds: Cover Photo 3-1; Dogtag 9-2; Introduced 7-1; Makeme Dream/Souper Escape 8-1; Nova Sol, Fashion Faux Pas, Be Nimble 14-1.
$ movers: Taking on more: Introduced. Taking less $: Fashion Faux Pas, Cover Photo, Souper Escape.
ABC: 4/5,9,6,14,2,13/3

Cover Photo might be the big longshot here but I like her most. Dreadful first maiden race, then 2 months later finishes a respectable 5th with a 70 BRIS. Following trainer change to Trombetta, finally breaks maiden in 3rd lifetime race on a muddy Laurel track. Breaks out to an 82 last time out vs 25k optional claimers, on a ‘good’ track. One of two fillies here to have a recent new top. Only late closer in the field; she needs a strong fast pace ahead to win out.
Introduced already will get some favorable looks because of the tactical speed. Lifetime 1st call numbers: 90, 105, 98, 105. Owns the fastest turf speed of the field, a 93, set 2 races back, nosed out for the win in the Stewart Manor. After 4 month layoff, bounced from that 93 to an 83 in a 50k optional claimer. This filly has the best speed pattern of the field as well.
Souper Escape won her 2nd lifetime race and first route, with an 84. Debut on turf and vs 75k optional claimers, she finished 5th yet improved to an 87. Cutting back to a sprint for the Gasparlla at Tampa Bay, she posted a 76. Last time out, 3 months away, back on turf and a route, she nosed out a win with an 82 vs 50k optional claimers. The 1st and 2nd call numbers were a huge improvement.

Top 3: 4-12-9 Carlino, Wait For It, Unbridled Juan
Overlays: 4,12, 9
Odds: Carlino 2-1; Wait For It 3-1; Unbridled Juan/War Story 7-1; Flameaway 9-1; Just Whistle 29-1
$ movers: Taking on more $:War Story, Carlino. Taking on less $: Just Whistle, Bobby G, Wait For It.
ABC: 1,4,12,9/ 11/3,6,7,10,13,14

Carlino should be an interesting choice for value, perhaps the wiseguy horse in a race that promises a lot of value. He’s been away since September, finishing 4th in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. This deep closer has the best tactical speed of the field. Last 3 late pace numbers: 111, 94, 80. A ton of works at GP during the layoff, and most very fast. Concerned about the possible bounce and rust factor.
Wait For It not a very obvious choice. 6 wins out of 15 in his career. Peaked last time out with a 102 in a 50k allowance race. Prior to this was a 98, finishing 3rd at same class on a muddy Parx track. Only horse in the field with both exploding and forging pace. He’s the true speed of the field. Last 3 BRIS numbers: 102, 98, 94. He’s waited longest of those stretching out to the classic 10-furlong distance.
Unbridled Juan has a strong lifetime record of 30-7-9-9. Last year, this 7YO won ungraded stakes at Laurel and Del Mar. Mixed blessings this year, running routes vs fellow older horses, scoring a 101 3 races back. The difference here is that he gets back regular rider Alex Cintron.

Top 3: 3-6-4 Ulele, Always Shopping, Cookie Dough.
Overlays: Ulele
Odds: Ulele 7-5; Brill 4-1; Always Shopping 9-2; Point Of Honor 10-1; Cookie Dough 14-1; Our Super Freak 44-1
$ movers: Taking on more $: Point Of Honor. Taking less $: Ulele.
ABC: 3/6/4,7,1
Ulele is the lone filly here with exploding and forging pace: Her 87 last time out vs 75k optional claimer fillies was 87, just beyond her 2YO best of 85. Already a winner stretching out in distance, plus getting a shipping win, she is definitely a good one to land.

Final (?) 2018-2019 Enlightened Derby Trail results (5/3/19)

Scratches to Haikal and Omaha Beach have changed my outlook on the ideal Derby field. Here’s what changes took place:
Minors: Anothertwistafate was taken off the Trail. Into my mythical field goes Six Shooter.
Heartland: Omaha Beach scratched. He gathered all his points in the Heartland division. Improbable already qualified with enough points out of the Cali division, so I went down to the horse with the next amount of points in the Heartland, Country House.
Haikal’s scratch does not impact the Northeast division at all.
Comparing my current top 20 to the 19 that are starting, I match 11 of them.

Spreadsheet looks like this:

2019 Kentucky Oaks undercard picks

As promised, here’s my take on the Oaks Day undercard:

Race 1: 8-3-9: Luck Of The Draw, Off Sixes, Coworker.

Off Sixes first of the value horses to be considered. Showed exploding/forging pace in last race with an 85 BRIS score, 2nd time beyond 1 mile. In fact, last 3 races have best pattern of these horses, all runs in the 80s. Ran 3 wide in last start yet finished 2nd. Prior win while cutting back in distance, only horse here to do so.

Race 2: 2-1-7 Awestruck, Annathela, Sultry.
Sultry recovering in pace following an 11-month layoff. Lone late closer of this field. Posted an 84 last time out, with a slow start, in a race she might have otherwise won.
Race 3: 3-1-4: Lady Kate, Shacklette, Mo Gayle.
Shacklette owns the best work tab of the field; 2 races here at CD, both very fast.

Race 4: 15-9-3. A race with many AE and MTO horses, so this is very difficult to get correct until changes are solid. Valdolobo has raced exclusively in top company in GB. Makes his US debut as well as receiving Lasix for the first time. Waiting since last October to stretch from a sprint race. A good deal of works as well in prep.

Race 5: 2-4-9 Proud Emma, Break Even, Mother Mother.
Proud Emma owns best AWD numbers of these: Include/Debutante Dreamer, out of Proud Citizen. Full pace recovery since 2 month layoff. Small new top of 90 last time out, 4th in the 9 furlong Gazelle at Aqueduct. She ran a bit wide in the turns, so there’s some possibility she could have finished better. Mike Smith returns to ride her, pilot of 2 of her 3 lifetime wins.

Race 6: 5-6-7 Concrete Rose, New Roo, Destiny Over Fate
Concrete Rose has 3 wins in 4, racing in the 80s range in BRIS speed. Winner of the Jessamin and Florida Oaks, 8th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. I like the close pace pattern of her races. Also, she’s the lone early closer, requiring a fast early place that slows somewhat.

Race 7: 10-4-8 Silver Dust, Casino Star, Seeking The Soul.
Silver Dust enters with 4 works at CD, each very fast, one a bullet.

Race 8: 2-7-3 Blue Prize, Teresa Z, Divine Miss Grey

Teresa Z had won the Monmouth Oaks in 2017, and the Obeah and 2 other stakes events in 2018. In fact, 2 races back, she posted a strong 104. Best AWD numbers here (Smart Strike/With Flying Colors, out of AP Indy). Only early closer in the field; she needs a fast pace early that collapses to an average pace late. 5 works since last, 3 very fast, 1 a bullet.

Race 9: 3-11-15 Cummings, Tiz Mischief, Soul Streit.
Cummings 1st off layoff goes up in class vs optional claimers. Forged new lifetime best 2 races back with an 89. Best workouts of the field…5 in all, 2 at CD, 3 straight bullets.
Watch for revisions of these picks by Friday. I will cover races 1 through 9 plus the KY Oaks via twitter at @idealisticstats.

2019 Kentucky Derby analysis (revised 5/1)

This is a revised post re my horse-by-horse analysis, due to the scratch of Omaha Beach:

1 WAR OF WILL was a different horse on turf, but made more of an impact on dirt. Won a sloppy maiden route race, first time with Gaffalione up, scoring a 94. Won the Grade 3 LeComte, then the Grade 2 Risen Star, a small new top there of 96. Bounced to 89 finishing 9th in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Best AWD numbers of this field (War Front/Visions Of Clarity, out of Sadler’s Wells). He’s been off since 3/23, about as long a wait as a few others. He won the LeComte with a similar 4-lb gain in weight carried. The real difference is in the workouts: 3 at Keeneland, one at CD, all 4 fast, with 3 bullets.
Pace: Average early, slows a bit down late.
Outlook: Winner
Odds: 7-5. Overlay.
$: No significant movement from 20-1 morning line, ensuring overlay status.

2: TAX became a strong contender following Danny Gargan’s claim 2 races into career. 3rd in the Remsen with a 103 score. Won the Withers with a 102, and was 2nd in the Wood Memorial with a 101. I judge him to be the best speed of the field, and how about that pattern of scores? Only horse running 2nd after layoff here showing an increase in 2nd call speed figures.
Pace: Backstretch, average early, slightly faster late.
Outlook: 2nd
Odds: 4-1. Overlay.
$: Same as with War Of Will, he should still be an overlay at post time.

3 BY MY STANDARDS took 4 tries to break maiden status. Then won the Louisiana Derby with a big 102 score. This is the other workout superstar of the field. 4 works at CD, 2 of them very fast.
Pace: Early closer, needs an average pace throughout.
Outlook: 3rd.
Odds: 8-1. Overlay
$: See above.

4 GRAY MAGICIAN won in his 4th maiden attempt, then was 4th in the Sham to start his 3YO career. 5th in an 80k optional claimer race, then 2nd in the Miracle Wood at Laurel on 2/16. 2nd in the UAE Derby, with an estimated BRIS score of 99, a new top.
Pace: Backstretch, Fast early, slowing down to average late (based on one career win).
Outlook: Outside of the top 9
Odds: No chance.
$: One of a handful of horses taking less $ than usual, but he’s already 50-1 per the morning-line.

5: IMPROBABLE won the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity and the 100k Street Sense at 2. Stayed solid in BRIS, finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 Rebel and Grade 1 Arkansas Derbies.
With the scratch of Omaha Beach, Improbable’s 98 score in the Arkansas Derby is the best run on an off-track of this field.
Pace: Early closer, fast early, slowing to average later.
Outlook: 8th
Odds: 44-1
$: No impact, probably dead on the board.

6 VEKOMA won his maiden debut with a 96, then a 101 win in the Grade 3 Belmont. 3rd in the Fountain Of Youth, then won the Blue Grass with a 101. I’ve ranked him as having the best tactical speed. Last 3 2nd call numbers: 114, 96, 110.
Pace: Backstretch; Fast all throughout, especially early.
Outlook: Outside the top 9.
Odds: No chance.
$: This is the one horse that could be taking more than usual. His 20-1 odds could be more like 10-1 or 12-1, suggesting the ‘wiseguy’ label.

7 MAXIMUM SECURITY is undefeated in 4, all races at Gulfstream. Winner of the Florida Derby in his route debut. Lifetime speed figures: 102, 100, 96, 94.
Pace: Backstretch, needing a slow to very slow pace to win.
Outlook: Outside the top 9.
Odds: No chance.
$: No movement, tho will remain a decent longshot price for some.

8 TACITUS won his 2nd lifetime race, then won the Tampa Bay Derby (small new top of 95, debut on Lasix) and Wood Memorial, the latter with a big 103.
One of a few horses with exploding and forging pace. The big danger is that his 103 matches the track par, and is a bounce risk.
Pace: Early closer, fast all throughout.
Outlook: Outside top 9.
Odds: No chance.
$: No movement, similar to Maximum Security.

9 PLUS QUE PARFAIT was 2nd here at CD in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. At age 3 he finished 5th in the LeComte, and 13th in the Risen Star. Won the UAE Derby last time out. My estimate is that he reached a small new top of 99. That score proved his pace recovery since his 2YO campaign, and exploding/forging pace.
Pace: Backstretch, fast early pace, slowing to average late.
Outlook: 5th.
Odds: 7-1. Overlay.
$: One of a handful of horses taking on more $. He might still be a longshot, but still an overlay.

10: CUTTING HUMOR won his 3rd lifetime race, then started his 3YO campaign with a 2nd place in a 75k race vs optional-claimers. He set a small new top of 94. Bounced to 84 in the Grade 3 Southwest. Won the Sunland Derby last time out with a new top of 99. Also recovered fully in pace since starting at age 3.
Pace: Early closer; somewhat slow early, slow late.
Outlook: Outside the top 9.
Odds: No chance.
$: Will be taking on more $, tho may still be a longshot, deservedly so.

11 HAIKAL has run 5 times, each in the money, at Aqueduct. Won the Jimmy Winkfield with a new small top of 99. Then won the Gotham with a 102 in his route debut; 3rd in the Wood Memorial with a 98.
Pace: Late closer, fast pace collapsing to average.
Outlook: Outside the top 9.
Odds: No chance.
$: No movement, no threat to others with the ML odds at 30-1.

13 CODE OF HONOR: was 2nd in the G1 Champagne at Belmont, earning a 95 BRIS. 4th in the Mucho Macho Man at age 3. Matched his 95 in last 2 starts, winning the Fountain Of Youth and 3rd in the Florida Derby.
Pace: Late closer, fast early, collapsing to average late.
Outlook: Outside the top 9.
Odds: No chance.
$: No movement, will be a solid longshot.

14: WIN WIN WIN won (won, won) the Pasco to start at age 3 (101 BRIS); this after 2 prior wins and a 2nd. 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby, 2nd in the Blue Grass.
Pace: Late closer; average pace early, collapsing to slow pace late.
Outlook: Outside the top 9.
Odds: No chance.
$: No movement from his 15-1 odds.

15 MASTER FENCER is here for the storyline, and not much more. No way to truly handicap him, given the lack of pace info. He did already race at the 10 furlong distance, but won twice at 9 furlongs, both at age 2 and 3.
Pace: Unknown
Outlook: Outside the top 9
Odds: No chance.
$: No movement, forgettable at 50-1.

16 GAME WINNER was always highly regarded by me, with 4 wins in 4 races at age 2 (Del Mar Futurity, American Pharaoh, Breeders Cup Juvenile). At age 3, he finished 2nd in the Rebel and the Santa Anita Derby. His 103 score in the BC Juvenile is the fastest CD speed of the field.
Pace: Backstretch; average throughout.
Outlook: 9th.
Odds: 44-1.
$: No movement; he’ll stay around his 5/1 odds, tho I feel he’ll burn a lot of $.

17 ROADSTER was 3rd in the Del Mar Futurity, then won an 80k optional claimer in his route debut, and the Santa Anita Derby. His 98 last out proves exploding and forging pace.
Pace: Backstretch, average throughout, slowing up somewhat.
Outlook: 7th
Odds: No chance.
$: He’ll take on a good deal more $. Improving from 6-1, he could end up being a top 4 favorite.
18 LONG RANGE TODDY: won the Clevor Trevor and Springboard Mile at Remington Park at age 2. Small new top of 92 finishing 2nd in the Smarty Jones. 3rd in the Southwest with a 91. Small new top of 97, winning the Rebel. Bounced to 83 in the Arkansas Derby last time out. This is the other horse that may well bounce back.
Pace: Backstretch, slow throughout.
Outlook: 6th.
Odds: no chance.
$: No movement, remaining a very long longshot.

19 SPINOFF has improved in each of his races…maiden debut was an 82 win. 3rd in the Saratoga Special with an 89. Won his route debut in a 75k optional-claimer race. 2nd in the Louisiana Derby with a huge 102 score. Had a rather troubled trip in the Louisiana Derby, getting bumped at the start, and running wide throughout.
Pace: Backstretch; very fast early, slowing to a moderately fast pace later.
Outlook: 4th.
Odds: 9-1. Overlay
$: WIll take on more $ than others, maybe do as well as 20-1, maybe better, but still a longshot.

20 COUNTRY HOUSE won his 3rd maiden race at age 3, then was 2nd in the Risen Star, 4th in the Louisiana Derby (new top of 95 BRIS), 3rd in the Arkansas Derby.
Pace: Late closer, very slow throughout.
Outlook: Outside the top 9
Odds: No chance.
$: WIll take on $, more so than others. Could improve the same way as Spinoff.

21 BODEXPRESS: Still a maiden, he’s in due to his 2nd place finish in the Florida Derby, a 98 score. Prior to that, he ran a 97 in a maiden race.
Pace: Backstretch.
Outlook: Outside the top 9
Odds: no chance.
$: Stuck as a longshot around 30-1.

Top 4:
1-2-3-19….War Of Will, Tax, By My Standards, Spinoff
Overlays: War Of Will, Tax, By My Standards, Plus Que Parfait, Spinoff.

ABC chart: 1/2/3,19,9,18,17,5,16

Horses taking most money:
Plus Que Parfait, Cutting Humor, Roadster, Spinoff, Country House.
Horse taking least money: Vekoma.

I’ll place win bets on my top 4 horses who are 6-1 or worse, and exactas to each other. Also: win bets on overlays, with top 2 public favorites over them in exactas.

Future wager impact:

Pool 1:
Win bets
Game Winner 5-1
Improbable 17-1
Vekoma 36-1

Win bets in the Sire Future Wager:
Candy Ride: Game Winner, Vekoma 7-1

Pool 2:
$2 win bets on
War Of Will 17-1
Tax 63-1
$1 exactas between ‘field’ (5-2), Game Winner (5-1), Improbable (7-1), and War Of Will.
Field currently is Plus Que Parfait, Roadster, By My Standards, Maximum Security, Code Of Honor, Haikal, Long Range Toddy, Cutting Humor, Country House, Gray Magician, Spinoff, Master Fencer, Bodexpress,

Pool 3:
$1 exacta box: Game Winner 6-1/Tax 59-1 /War Of Will 12-1/field 9/2, over same.
$2 win bets: Code Of Honor 14-1

Field: Tacitus, Plus Que Parfait, By My Standards, Maximum Security, Haikal, Long Range Toddy, Cutting Humor, Gray Magician, Bodexpress, Master Fencer,

Pool 4
Win bets on
Plus Que Parfait 55-1
War Of Will 26-1 (double dip)
Improbable 8-1

Exacta box:
Game Winner 7-1
Plus Que Parfait 55-1
Improbable 8-1
field: 19-1
Field: Tax, Country House, Gray Magician, Master Fencer.