Lexington Stakes analysis

The Lexington Stakes isn’t a race on the Enlightened Trails, but I share it for the sake of seeing how horses on the actual Trails will be impacted.
This race is a Grade 3 event. It is 8.5 furlongs on Keeneland’s main track, racing for a 200k purse.
Top 3: 7-4-2-8 (2 and 8 are hard to separate)….Knicks Go, Anothertwistafate, Hawaiian Noises, Owendale.
Overlays: Knicks Go, Hawaiian Noises, Owendale.
ABC chart: 7,4,2,8/9,10
Which way the money should be going: Less on Hawaiian Noises, Roiland, Harvey Wallbanger

Hawaiian Noises, indeed, might be ignored more than the other horses here. Harvey Wallbanger is 2nd choice in the morning-line at 7-2, and I feel his stock will drop (and therefore more value). Hawaiian Noises won his 2nd maiden race, lone appearance on dirt, 84 BRIS. Followed this up with a win in a 50k optional claimer, 85 score. Then won the Animal Kingdom, a 50k event on 3/9, with an 87. I like the expression of forging and exploding pace. Also, his run in the Animal Kingdom was first off layoff, showing a strong increase in 2nd call speed.
Knicks Go is a sentimental choice as much as a pick here; I have several win bets on him in the Future Wager pools. I had such high hopes for him since his Breeders Futurity win at Churchill. His stock really dropped since the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and he hasn’t even taken the lead in his last 3 races. He still, tho, has the best distance and track speed of this field, and switches back to regular rider Albin Jimenez. Only pure sprinter of the field.
Owendale took 3 tries to win his maiden effort, then was competitive in several optional claimer races between Fair Grounds and Churchill. Lifetime best of 96 set 2 races back on 1/19, then bounced to an 84 in the Grade 2 Risen Star. Best pedigree of the field (Into Mischief/Aspen Light, out of Bernardini). 5 works in prep, all very fast, 2 bullet works.

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