Firstly, here’s the updated Enlightened Derby Trail chart:
Here’s an explanation of the tiebreaks: The ideal result is that the top 4 horses of each division on points get into my ideal mythical KY Derby. Often, this will not be the case, as a handful of horses each year will place in more than one division. From here, I go to tiebreaks and one important rule: No horse can possibly represent more than one division. I take the next horse within the divisions the ties exist (just those divisions only) and select the horse with the most points overall that would not have qualified otherwise. That way, the best horses still represent.
Between horses when there is a tie for points, I use this ranking system:
Best class race
Pending the Arkansas Derby results, I can safely rank about 15 of 20 horses. Somelikeithotbrown has enough for 4th in the Heartland, but with the top 2 finishers getting at least 500, that would knock him out. He already has 1000 points and 5th place in the crowded South division, so he gets the last spot. Tacitus has 1000 in the South and the Northeast. I let Somelikeithotbrown get the temporary nod for his 1000 point total. Tacitus is 5th in the South, as he did not win a Grade 1 race. The one such race available in his division was the Florida Derby.
Haikal is out of the picture despite a tie for 3rd place with Fog Of War and Complexity with 250 in the Northeast. His 3rd place finish in the Grade 2 pales in comparison to the Grade 1 2YO wins by the other 2 horses. In this example, I give not only class the edge, but the winning result as the factor.
Six Shooter loses out in the Minors despite the 500 total. He won the Big Drama at Delta Downs, but this race was a sprint, 7.5 furlongs, compared to Broka’s mile win at Portland Meadows.
Vekoma and Win Win Win are the top 2 in the Heartland. They should remain in the top 4 of the division after the Arkansas Derby, tho this does depend on nominations and eventual starters. Among those with points in the division that is not already locked in for the KY Derby, the only one with points is King For A Day, at 25.