2019 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 picks

My final pool picks are in…here’s how I came to the decisions:

I reranked horses in 3 variables after I read the Brisnet repots, specifically #5037, which allows you to look at a horse’s last speed rating. Calculating 1 length behind=1 point, I was able to construct speed figures and binomial pace for horses in the pool that were racing yesterday. I had to adjust for 9 horses re pace, keeping the top 7. WIth a total of 7 horses who now have won at least at 9 furlongs, this took down a step all those whose fastest run was at 8.5. Vekoma went up in class win (Grade 2), as did Roadster (Grade 1). I drew up a new list, ranking 9 horses who were in my top 7 in at least 3 variables:
9th:BY MY STANDARDS took a slight drop from 8th, and is the actual Derby anyway. FInished Pool 4 at 32-1

8th: VEKOMA won the Santa Anita Derby with a 101, putting him inside my top 7 for pace. And his Grade 2 victory kept him at pace with the slight majority of horses in this field of 23 who also have at least a Grade 2 win. Further, that race was at 9 furlongs, enough to be in the show. He went from off my original list to this 8th place showing, which is rather positive. A bonus: I already have him at 36-1 from pool 1. I figured he won’t be near that low point again. He did finish Pool 4 at 15-1. No double-dip here. I like my chances with him.

7th: TACITUS also made this list via his Grade 2 wins, his overall pace, and 9-furlong win in the Wood Memorial. Finished pool 4 at 8-1. Ranked a bit low for me to consider.

6th: MAXIMUM SECURITY moves up from 6th. Already ranked in class, pace and distance without racing again, he’s already in the Derby too. 7-1 his final price.
5th: SIGNALMAN I had already wagered in prior pools at 28-1 and 38-1, tho not considered for exactas. Moved from 6th in my rankings. Ranked in class and pace, plus pace progress at age 2. Also posted a 99 BRIS at Churchill. Final pool 4 odds: 70-1! I was shocked, but elated, to consider these odds in a triple-scoop move. WIth 38 points on the actual Trail, it’s a matter of watching the scoreboard following this coming weekend’s preps.
4th: WAR OF WILL: Ranked in all categories except for pace and distance. Dropped in rank from 3rd, meaning I would not need to put him in exactas again. As mentioned in a prior post, Mark Casse has the intention of keeping him on the road to the Derby. FInal pool odds: 23-1.
3rd: IMPROBABLE is also on the Derby bubble. He drops from 2nd to 3rd, so he’s still a major hope for me. Final pool 4 odds: 8-1. Ranked in all except for distance and 2YO pace progress. Arkansas Derby next.
2nd: PLUS QUE PARFAIT moves from 4th to 2nd here, meaning he’s now an exacta factor. Already ranked in all areas except for pace. Final odds: 55-1.
1st: GAME WINNER. Finishing a narrow 2nd yesterday didn’t really hurt his chances. Final odds: 7-1.

The wagers:
Win bets on
Plus Que Parfait 55-1
War Of Will 26-1 (double dip)
Signalman 70-1 (triple dip)
In my haste to get wagers in on time, I accidentally put an extra $2 on Improbable, 8-1. I already have him at 17-1 from a prior pool.

Exacta box:
Game Winner 7-1
Plus Que Parfait
Improbable 8-1
field: 19-1

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