Rebel Stakes, plus Enlightened Trails update, 3/16/19

Into the latter stages of the Enlightened Trails, I look at the Laurel Park
representative tracks for both, plus both divisions of The Rebel Stakes.
BEYOND THE WIRE STAKES: 1 mile, 3YO fillies, 100k purse.
Top 3: 8-5-2 Our Super Freak, Afleet Destiny, It Justhitthe Wire
Overlays: 8 Our Super Freak,
Throw-outs: 4,6 Discreet Sister, Pat’s No Fool
ABC chart: 8/5,7,3,2
Only race of the 4 I’m covering that has one horse with a clear advantage. I’m not
sure Our Super Freak should even be an overlay coming down from a morning-
line of 5-1. She’s more like 4-5. She appears to the best speed horse here. Last 3
BRIS figures: 82,80,77. It’s a pattern that definitely ranks best of these. Last time
out in the Wide Country on 2/16, first race after 7 weeks away, she improved in
her 2nd call speed and gained a bit on the leader.
The way the morning-line appears, there just isn’t much value to be found among
my contenders. But I like the value in my top 3 amongst the comparative
favorites.
My odds: Afleet Destiny, Crafty’s Dream and It Justhitthe WIre: 9-1. Las Setas:
11-1. Destiny Over Fate: 14-1. Our Super Freak: 4-5.

REBEL STAKES, First Division: 8.5 furlongs, 3YOs, 750k purse.
Top 3: 2-9-4 Long Range Toddy, Improbable, Easy Shot
Overlays: Extra Hope, Easy Shot, Proud Nation, Classy John
Throw-outs: Corruze, Ninth Street, Galilean
ABC chart: 2,9,4/1,7,5
My odds: Improbable 5-2; Extra Hope 7-2; Long Range Toddy 7-1; Easy Shot 7
-1; Classy John 8-1; Proud Nation 11-1.
Long Range Toddy is 6-3-1-1 lifetime. Winner of the Springboard Mile, 2nd in
the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn on 1/25, then 3rd in the Grade 3 Southwest on 2/18.
His 92 score in the Smarty Jones is best OP score of this field. It’s also a small
new top compared to his Springboard Mile run last year.
Easy Shot, after finishing his 2YO run by breaking maiden status, ran 5th in the
Grade 3 Sham, and 3rd in the Grade 3 RB Lewis. Both of those races were at Santa
Anita, and the latter saw him move from a 3rd consecutive 84 score to a small
new top of 89. 4 works since the RB Lewis, all at SA, last 2 were bullets.
Extra Hope was 4th in the Grade 3 Bob Hope, 3rd in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos
Futurity, and winner of an 80k optional-claimer at Santa Anita last time out,
1/31, kicking off his 3YO campaign. That last race represents a new small top.
He gained 18 points at the 2nd call compared to previous, and seized the lead at
that point, winning out by 3.25 lengths. I have to wonder if the very fast pace of
that race, and/or the sloppy track made a big difference in his winning.
Regardless he’s waiting the longest of these to stretch out in distance.
Proud Nation enters still a maiden. Failed with blinkers first time out to start his
3YO campaign, dropping to a 42 and a 9th place finishing vs 93k maidens. My
only real reason for liking him is the slight track bias. 17 of the 56 races run at
the distance have been won by pure sprinters, more so than other types. 6 of the
56 have been won in posts 4 through 7.
Classy John has run competitively only in state-bred company. Winner of the LA
Juvenile and LA Futurity, 2nd in the Premier Prince, with a small new top of 92.
1st or 2nd in 5 lifetime races. Like Proud Nation, he can benefit from track bias
via his pure speed ability.

REBEL STAKES, Second Division, 8.5 furlongs, 3YOs, 750k purse
Top 3 7-5-9 Our Braintrust, Game WInner, Kaziranga
Overlays: 3,4, 9 Parsimony, Jersey Agenda, Kaziranga
Throw-outs: 6,8: Omaha Beach, Gunmetal Gray
ABC chart: 7,5/10,9,4
Our Braintrust: 5 for 5 in the money lifetime. 3rd last time out in the Grade 3
Withers, with 4th straight increase in BRIS speed to 101. It was his first race
without front bandages, as well as beyond one mile and versus Graded company.
It was on a pace that was consistently fast. He did have some traffic trouble in
the Withers despite the triple-digit BRIS number. I feel he can run just as fast
without the trouble. Blinkers on for the first time.

Kaziranga, granted, for a pure sprinter, hasn’t been one to find the lead. But I like
how he responded last time, first race after layoff. He increased his speed at 2nd
call as well as gain on the leader. For his first time beyond a mile, in a fast pace,
he did manage 5th. He previously won first off layoff while breaking his maiden.
A dark horse for sure, but I have always like the positive 2nd race after layoff
angle.

Parsimony is still a maiden after 7 starts and 4 2nd place finishes. First stakes
race of any kind, making his 2nd turf to dirt switch. 2 races prior he set a new
small top of 88, bettering his 2YO best of 87.

Jersey Agenda bounced from 91 to 82 last time out in the Grade 3 Southwest
here. I like the track bias angle with him (See Proud Nation, Rebel division 1 race)
Captain Von Trapp: Set a small new top of 90 last time out in his first route race,
vs 50k optional-claimers. Consistent runs between 81 and 90 in his 5 races, 2
wins and 2 2nds.

PRIVATE TERMS STAKES, 8.5 furlongs, 3YOs, 100k. This is the final race in the
Minors division for my Enlightened Derby Trail. Winner is in my mythical
Kentucky Derby, joining Six Shooter, Broka, and Anothertwistafate.
Top 3: 5-3-1 Makes Mo Cents, Alwaysmining, Tybalt
Overlays: Makes Mo Cents, Dixie Drawl
Throw-outs: Still Dreaming
ABC chart: 5/3/6,1,2
My odds: Tybalt 8-1; Dixie Drawl 10-1; Alwaysmining 2-1; Joevia 5-1; Makes Mo Cents 5-2; Red Gum 44-1
Makes Mo Cents has raced just once, here at a sloppy Laurel track, 7 furlongs with an 83 BRIS. That was on 1/19. This deep closer was 6 lengths behind the leader at 2nd call and closed to win by 1 length. He’s waited 7 weeks to stretch out. In this race, he’s the lone deep closer and enters with 4 local works, 1 was very fast.

Tybalt sports a top pedigree in this field (Kitten’s Joy/El Prado, out of Tale Of The Cat). Last run in the Miracle Wood here at Laurel, he matched his lifetime best with a 93, running 6 wide and finishing 3rd.

Red Gum has won three of his last 4, breaking maiden status in the process. Coincidentally, the three races since claim by Kelly Rubley were on non-fast tracks. Last time out, his run of 92 is best Laurel speed for this field. There is risk of bounce with the move up in class.

Dixie Drawl ran 2nd in his maiden debut vs 50k level maidens. Won with an 80 at the 40k level, first at a route. 75 of the 220 races run this meet at 8.5 furlongs have been won by pure sprinters. Also, 40 races were won by posts 1 through 3.

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