2019 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager analysis

With one shot to get it right, there’s also just 2 races that will tip the scales in some way toward a very likely Oaks appearance.
I’ll use the same variables as with the other pools… Class, CD pace, longest distance win, best AWD numbers, binomial pace, and evidence of pace progression at age 2.
Here are the rankings:
7th: SERENGETI EMPRESS: 4 wins in 6 races, including the Ellis Park Debutante (98 BRIS), the Grade 2 Pocahontas at CD (92 BRIS), and the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra (94), her 3YO debut.
6th: CHASING YESTERDAY was to run in the San Felipe, tho that race has been postponed. 4 wins in 5, including the Grade 1 Starlet, the Desi Arnaz, and the Anoakia. 7th in the Grade 1 Spinaway. The win in the Anoakia was evidence of pace progress.
5th: I had to split hairs between Chasing Yesterday and POINT OF HONOR. I rank the latter horse here because of the overall pace….93 and 94 in her 2 lifetime starts. The Suncoast Stakes win was her 3YO debut. Definitely one of the faster fillies here. Also has good pedigree (Curlin/Zayanna, out of Bernardini).
4th: BELLAFINA already ranked well in the predicted odds. 5 wins and 1 2nd in 7 lifetime, including the Grade 2 Sorrento, the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante, the Grade 1 Chandelier, and the Grade 2 Santa Ynez and Las Virgiennes. Her lone blemish was a 4th-place finish in the BC Juvenile Fillies, tho it was a nice 92 there at CD. I rank her as the fastest filly of the bunch.
Now for my top 3, which will be wagered on with exactas plus field to each other. I will wager win bets on my eventual top 3 that are about 6-1 or worse by 3pm Sunday.
3rd: RESTLESS RIDER: 6-3-3-0 lifetime. Winner of the 100k Debutante at CD with a 91, 2nd in the Grade 1 Spinaway, winner of the Grade 1 Alcibiad, 2nd in the BC Juvenile Fillies (96), 2nd in the Grade 2 Golden Rod, first time on a sloppy track. Yet to race at 3. Positive pace progress identified. One of the fastest of the 23.
2nd: LIORA is 6-2-1-1. Winner of the Grade 2 Golden Rod (89 BRIS at CD), 4th in the Silverbulletday, 2nd in the Rachel Alexandra, matching her 2YO best score of 89. Positive pace progress identified. Best AWD scores of the field (Candy Ride/Giant Mover, out of Giant’s Causeway)
Top selection is Jaywalk, a highly regarded filly who won the BC Juvenile Fillies at CD with a 103 score. In her 3YO debut last week, she bounced to an 85 in the Grade 2 Davona Dale. Still ranks as one of the fastest fillies of this field of 23.
3 fillies of the 23 are in Saturday’s Grade 3 8.5 furlong Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn Park: Motion Emotion, Marathon Queen and Power Gal. For sake of this wager, I like Power Gal a bit. She does have good pedigree and did reveal positive pace progress. Should she win, it just might get her into the mix. But that’s before determining the pace parameters. There is, at cost, a Brisnet feature that does reveal the speed figures hours after the race. I’ll definitely need to that for several races involving horses in both future pools.
I don’t like Orra Moor but she is running in the one-mile Busher at Aqueduct, a listed stakes event.
Even if she wins, she still lacks evidence in the categories to be a factor for this future wager.

I will give you my take on the Honeybee and Busher races late on Friday.

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