2019 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3 analysis

Now to the fun part of the weekend, with the pair of future wagers!
On the Derby side, we’re up to Pool 3. A recap of what I’ve wagered on so far.
Pool 1:
Win bets on Cairo Cat 59-1
Game Winner 5-1
Improbable 17-1
Knicks Go 44-1
Vekoma 36-1

Win bets in the Sire Future Wager:
Cairo Prince 30-1
Candy Ride 7-1
Giant’s Causeway 47-1
Into Mischief 7-1
Uncle Mo 23-1

Pool 2:
$2 win bets on
War Of Will 17-1
Tax 63-1
Knicks Go 78-1
Signalman 28-1
Maximus Mischief 38-1 (whom is now off the Trail)
$1 exactas between ‘field’ (5-2), Game Winner (5-1), Improbable (7-1), and War Of Will.

Not sure I’d bet any further on Knicks Go at this point, nor Tax.
Cairo Cat may be a true bust…hasn’t run yet at 3. No word anywhere about him.
Improbable, Tax and Vekoma are top 20 in actual Derby points but certainly will need more.

Looking at the Triple Crown nominations, here’s whom I have that are alive to the Derby from the sires:
Cairo Prince (11): Admire, Cairo Cat, Cairo Cutie, Castle Casanova, Dyn, Harmon, Mihos, Napoleon’s Empire, Oncewewerebrothers, Shazier, World Affairs
Candy Ride (8): Americandy, Capernaum, Game Winner, Get The Prize, Kaziranga, Mr MIke, Shared Legacy, Vekoma
Giant’s Causeway (3): Higgins, Magnificent McCool, Sweet Giant
Into Mischief (15): Chess Chief, Comedian, Corruze, Honest Mischief, Incorrigible, Instagrand, Into Morocco, Market King, Maximus Mischief, Mr Ankeny, Owendale, Punchline, Rowayton, and 2 unnamed colts, one out of Ford Gallop, the other by Morningbird.
Uncle Mo (11): Bandon Woods, Fifty Over, Forty Under, Galilean, General Mo, Good As Money, King For A Day, Machine Learning, Mo Mississippi, Mo Reserve, Scalper

Now for the Pool 3 rankings…..
8th: HARVEY WALLBANGER is one of just a few late closers here. Won the Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream following a 10 week layoff, in his 3YO debut. It was a nice gain from his runs in the 80s prior to a 95. Ran an 86 and 81 at Churchill in the races prior, breaking his maiden in November. He is being pointed to the Florida Derby
7th: CODE OF HONOR won the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth at GP last time out with a 95. He’s had considerable time off between all of his races. 2nd in the Grade 1 Champagne, where he posted his initial 95 score. Positive pace progress indicated with that race. He should be in either the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial.
6th: DREAM MAKER, as mentioned in my prior post, is a horse I do like in the Tampa Bay Derby. 83 in his maiden debut at CD. Showed positive pace progress from there at age 2, with an 85 in the Hopeful. One of the better AWD numbers here (Tapit/To Dream About, out of Monarchos). He scored his lifetime best with a strong 91, winning in his 3YO debut in a 50k optional claimer event. Always bet favorably, he should be rather interesting should he come close to that 91 score and a top 4 finish.
5th: SIGNALMAN might get another look from me. He’s not to run until the Blue Grass Stakes. Grade 2 winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club at CD with a 95. Was 3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile with a 99. Those 2 races showed his early promise in gaining pace strength. Bounced to 7th and an 87 in his 3YO debut in the FOY.
4th: IMPROBABLE won’t be in the San Felipe this weekend. His 3-race undefeated mark is undisturbed. 92 in his maiden race, a 99 win in the Street Sense at CD, and a 100 in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity. One of the faster horses of this field of 23. Maybe he gets pointed to the Rebel, which could be run in 2 divisions.
Top 3, whoever it shall be, will be the primary subject of win bets, and definite exactas to each other and the field selections.
3rd: TAX is still rather attractive. Grade 3 winner of the 9-furlong Withers last time out, in his 3YO debut. 3rd in the Remsen prior to it. 83 in his maiden debut. Very good AWD numbers (Arch/Toll, out of Giant’s Causeway). I rate him 2nd fastest of this field. Next race should be the Wood Memorial.
2nd: WAR OF WILL now has won 3 straight, including this year’s Grade 3 LeComte, and Grade 2 Risen Star. Last 3 races, 96 and a pair of 94s. Broke maiden just 3 races back at CD with a strong 94. Showed pace progress even before this, finishing 5th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, with a score of 89. Best AWD numbers of the field (War Front/Visions Of Clarity, out of Sadler’s Wells). He is Louisiana Derby bound.
Top choice here remains GAME WINNER. Undefeated in 4 races; winner last out at CD in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile, scoring a 103. Superb pace progress between each race. Yet to race at 3. Good AWD numbers (Candy Ride/Indyan Giving, out of AP Indy). I rate him the speed of this field of 23.

Coming up in a bit, my take on the single Kentucky Oaks pool.

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