As with prior versions of the Sire Future Wager, I take the following approach: I create a composite horse, rating the best performance per variable of a sire’s offspring. I stick to these variables to determine my top 5: Best class win, fastest Churchill Downs pace, longest win for distance, number of offspring with positive pace progress, best AWD numbers, and best binomial pace. I count horses with the most Top 7 positions between them.
Out of the 23 sires, I was able to rank 10, splitting hairs between positions 4 throught 10. As with the standard Future Wager, I’ll play win bets on the top 5. Also, I’ll stick to win bets instead of playing exactas, saving $ for the time being.
#10: TAPIT. Tight Ten scored a 91 at Churchill in a 2nd place finish in the Iroquois. 7.6 AWD is among the better numbers here. Magic On Tap scored a 95 in his maiden debut at Del Mar on 9/1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWmRV6Wq7_c
#9 SCAT DADDY Van Beethoven’s speed figures in GB and Ireland seem to hold their own against others. Grade 2 victory in the GAIN Railway Stakes at Curragh, 6/30. http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer/VOD/1047909
Federal Law earned an 8.5 furlong win in a 75k allowance at Woodbine earlier this month. Junkanoo won at the same distance in his maiden debut, and on turf and Lasix, at Belmont Park. 7 horses with pace progress.
#8 MORE THAN READY: Sir Truebadour won the Grade 3 Bashford Manor at Churchill with a 76 speed figure; it was the slowest of his 4 lifetime races. 6 horses with pace progress.
#7 PIONEER OF THE NILE: Amino was a winner at 8.5 furlongs, 87 BRIS just 3 days ago at Laurel.
5 horses with pace progress. Good AWD number of 7.5.
#6: CURLIN: Current won the Grade 3 Bourbon at Keeneland last month with a lifetime best of 87. https://preview.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafbvideos/2018-dixiana-bourbon-stakes-current/vi-BBPh7qn
Curlin’s other winner at 8.5 furlongs is Washington Tesoro, who won a stakes race in Japan earlier this month by 9 lengths.
#5 GIANT’S CAUSEWAY: Aster Pegasus was a multiple graded stakes winner in Japan.
Global Access won at 8.5 furlongs at Woodbine on Halloween, 81 BRIS. Best AWDs of the sires, at 8.10.
#4 INTO MISCHIEF: Instagrand owns 2 wins in 2 races, both at 10 lengths. Won the Grade 2 Best Pal last time out at Del Mar back in August.
9 offspring with pace progress, tying
Cairo Prince for the most of any sire. Maximus Mischief also is 2-for-2, and won a 43k allowance race at Parx last month with a 104 speed figure.
Top 3 here are a cut above the rest:
#3: CAIRO PRINCE: Cairo Cat won the 8.5 furlong Grade 3 Iroquois last time out, at Churchill, with a 92 BRIS. 9 off spring with pace progress.
#2 UNCLE MO: Forty Under won the 8.5 furlong Grade 3 Pilgrim at Belmont on 8/29, with a nice 93 speed figure. King For A Day also won at the same distance in a 75k maiden race 10/4, also at Belmont. Speed figure of 96 certainly impresses. And another: Moon Colony won at 8.5 furlongs in his maiden breaker, 10/5 at Keeneland, 83 speed figure. 5 horses with pace progress. Galilean might be Uncle Mo’s fastest Won his debut in the Barnetts Juvenile at LRC, 87 BRIS. Followed it up with a 2nd place 97 in the Golden State Juvenile at Santa Anita.
#1 is CANDY RIDE. Undoubtedly earns the mark thanks to being the sire of multiple Grade-1 winner Game Winner. 103 last time out at Churchill, in the Breeders Cup. Juvenile.