Breeders Cup 2018 analysis (Friday Juvenile card)

The preparation is just about halfway through for my Breeders Cup analysis. I’ve gone through each of the Friday races, and started on 2 of the 9 for Saturday. I’m wagering live dollars for each day. I also have Future Wager pool money on a few races.
I use my usual array of variables with these races, tho, owing to the presence of many foreign horses, I also use the Racing Post ratings from the UK. As suggested on at least 2 websites, I make adjustments based on the purse size of the race as well as for age and distance, to determine what the corresponding BRIS number would be.
Friday’s weather at Churchill Downs suggests there will be rain on the track. I am factoring in an off track for those races just in case. I also am taking into account all AE horses.

JUVENILE TURF SPRINT: Soldier’s Call, So Perfect, Stillwater Cove. This race has no predominant favorite; prices should be plentiful.
Predicted overlays: So Perfect, Stillwater Cove, Moonlight Romance.
So Perfect has posted small new tops in his last 5 races (out of 6 lifetime!). Last out was a hard-luck 3rd place finish in the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Grade 1) at Newmarket. Equating to a 97 Brisnet, I feel her trip cost her somewhat, and she should be ready for a win. The race came following a 7 week layoff.
Stillwater Cove won her maiden debut, was last in the Albany Stakes at Ascot, then won a 100k stakes event at Saratoga, then was 5th in the Natalma. One should expect a win today, right? Won debut and also 1st off layoff; she’s been off since mid-September. Switches back to prior winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. 4 workouts, 1 a bullet.
Moonlight Romance had won her 2nd maiden race at the 100k level at Belmont (also her turf debut), then ran last in a stakes race over at Ascot, then won the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Special last time out. 5 works in prep.
Suggested odds: Soldier’s Call 3-1; Well Done Fox 14-1; So Perfect 9-2; Stillwater Cove 5-1; Shang Shang Shang, Sergei Prokofiev, Big Drink Of Water and Comedy all 18-1; Moonlight Romance 8-1.
Update: Following changes, I’m changing my order to 2-4-10, tho for sake of my handicapping that won’t make any real impact outside of overlays.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF: My Gal Betty, Lily’s Candle, East. Overlays: My Gal Betty, The Mackem Bullet.
My Gal Betty has raced 4 times at Woodbine, with 3 wins and 1 2nd, last out, in the Natalma. Twice a winner 1st off layoff. Forged 3 small tops in her last 3 races. Slightly wide trip last time out may have cost her undefeated status. 5 works, 4 of them very fast.
Lily’s Candle has raced 5 times in France, with 3 wins. Owns best speed for distance. Best race was her last once, in a Grade 1 race at Longchamp (Criterium des Poulches; Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac). Appears to have the best pace pattern of these.
East has impressed in her 2 lifetime races, both wins. Last out win at the Grade 3 level in France. First-time Lasix recipient, which should help her cause.
The Mackem Bullet has 6 races in GB, all but her debut in the money. Is the speed of the field. She has grown well with new tops in every lifetime race.
Suggested odds: Just Wonderful 7-1; Newspaperofrecord 2-1, The Mackem Bullet 7-2; My Gal Betty 8-5; Lily’s Candle 9-1; East 12-1.
Update: Changing my top 3 to 13-2-12: My Gal Betty, The Mackem Bullet, Summering. My Gal Betty has become my best bet between the 5 races.

JUVENILE FILLIES: Splashy Kisses, Cassies Dreamer, Reflect, each of which are overlays.
Splashy Kisses was 2nd in the Pocahontas last time here at Churchill. Should bounce back from 69 after that 19th-length loss. 5 works in prep, 2 very fast.
Cassies Dreamer was 3rd in the Spinaway and Frizette; definitely suggesting placement in the Oaks Trails lists soon. A little trouble at the start of the Frizette, which cost her the win. Only deep closer in this field; she might need a slightly slow pace to win.
Reflect won her debut, then didn’t much impact since. Track bias in her favor: In 22 races at the 8.5 furlong distance, horses with an early closing style have won 32%. 14% wins out of posts 1-3.
My odds: Serengeti Express 7-1; Reflect 6-1, Restless Rider 9-1; Cassies Dreamer 9-2, Jaywalk 7/2, Splashy Kisses 2-1.

JUVENILE TURF: Anthony Van Dyck, Opry, Somelikeithotbrown. Overlays: Uncle Benny, Opry.
Opry 3rd in his maiden debut, won the With Anticipation at Saratoga. 4th in the Pilgrim at Belmont. 3 works, 2 of them very fast, one a bulet.
Uncle Benny is 2 for 2. Last out he won his turf debut in the 150k Futurity at Belmont. Early-presser types like himself, who run fastest on the backstretch, have won 2 of 7 turf miles during the meet. This combined with 14% from posts 1-3 make him a strong contender.
My odds: Anthony Van Dyck 2-1; Somelikeithotbrown 9-1. Uncle Benny & Much Better11-1, Opry 2-1.

JUVENILE: Code Of Honor, Dueling and the favored Complexity. Overlays: Well Defined, Dueling.
Dueling did take 3 tries to break maiden, but did win first time in a route. Improved to 89, with nice pace pattern. Wears blinkers for the first time. In 22 races during the meet for distance/surface, early closers are winning 32%. Posts 1-3 are 14%. Only early closer in the field.
Well Defined 4 for 4 in the money. Best speed figures for distance, achieved last time out with a 103 at Gufstream in 9/29. Overall has the best speed. Lifetime stars are 103, 101, 76, 85.

Update: Following the scratch of Code Of Honor, my new top 3 are 1-6-4: Dueling, Complexity, Tight Ten.
Dueling was my erroneous Juvenile Sire Future Wager selection, 29-1.

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