Grouping horses by my personal rank of variables, here’s how I see the race, counting the top 14 and ignoring (for now) the remaining 5:
Accelerate had won the Pacific Classic by 12 lengths. For that, he scored a 114, a small new top.
Thunder Snow’s 106 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup was good just for 2nd to Discreet Lover. Maybe his somewhat wide trip kept him from that win.
Roaring Lion continues to have the fastest pace pattern of this grouping, including his win in the QE2 at Ascot last week. I judge based on Racing Post numbers.
City Of Light had a previous stretchout win (Oaklawn Handicap, going up 2 furlongs). Also owns 3 shipping wins. He’s also waiting the longest to stretch of these, 11 weeks by post time since finishing 2nd in the Forego.
Mendelssohn is the only pure sprinter of this field. I gather he will need a very fast pace to win out, much as he did in last year’s Juvenile Turf.
Yoshida has one stretchout win, the Woodward, his most recent start, on 9/1. He also won with a similar 4-lb gain in weight carried; that was this year’s Turf Classic here at Churchill. Also owns 3 shipping wins.
McKinzie had progressed well at all points of call while winning the Pennsylvania Derby, first race after a 6 month layoff. He had also seized the lead at the 2nd call. So far, he’s put up 2 bullet works at Santa Anita.
Mind Your Biscuits won the Lukas Classic had a similar progression, tho 7 weeks off. 2 quick works at Churchill.
if the Breeders Cup were today…
Considering the top 14 that would go in, I’d choose Accelerate, Mendelssohn, Roaring Lion, and then either Yoshida or City Of Light. Discreet Lover and West Coast officially did not show up in my rankings. The one horse I can safely throw out is Thunder Snow.
My projected odds right now, based on my own values and discounting horses who did not show up in my variables:
McKinzie, Mind Your Biscuits: 5-1
Roaring Lion, Thunder Snow: 8-1
City Of Light, Yoshida: 9-1
These odds are being used to compare to the actual live odds. If I see a difference of more than $4 payout less to $1 wagered than in my own odds, then there is an overlay. For example, if my horse is 5-1 and the live odds are 9-1, overlay. 8-1, no overlay.