Breeders Cup 2018 Turf future wager analysis/selections

 

Examining the BC Turf contenders within this wager, a lot of work went into converting Racing Post numbers. I use the TS numbers to convert to its BRIS equivalent. I subtract more for sprints and 2YO races, and more for Graded races than for maidens.
I used the same variables as with the BC Classic. For this 12-horse field, I chose top 4 for each. The most top 4 placements for horses earned the better ranking.

12th: LIAM THE CHARMER (#8) Despite recent wins in the John Henry Turf Classic and a 100k optional claimer, serving as his sole 2018 races, he’s no match for this field.

11th: QUARTERO de CORDAS (#9) has raced all 14 times in Brazil, at Gavea. No notes are available as to how he can fare. I did see he won at 12 furlongs in a Grade 1 race there, the Grande Premio Brasil,

10th: SADLER’S JOY (#12): Hasn’t won since a Grade 2 race at Gulfstream to start his 5YO season. He’s come rather closer in Graded company since, both in FL and NY tracks. Won the 12 furlong Sword Dancer at Saratoga last summer.

9th: TALISMANIC (#13) Wins in France and Cali, plus entries into Hong Kong and US racing, on differing surfaces, this 5YO horse is hard not to root for. Owns a 14-furlong win, the Prix Maurice de Nieuil at Saint Cloud in France.

8th: ROBERT BRUCE (#11) had raced in Chile for his 3YO year, then 3 races at Belmont, one at Arlington. Winner of the Fort Marcy and the Arlington Million. His final Chilean race was the Grade 1 El Ensayo Mega, 12 furlongs in all.

7th: CARRICK (#2): Won the Secretariat on 8/11 at Arlington. That race produced his lifetime best of 100. He bounced to a 75 in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic last week. Does he bounce back? He just might.
6th: GLORIOUS EMPIRE (#6): Won the 12 furlong Sword Dancer last time out on 8/25 with a 97. Prior to that he posted his lifetime best score of 98.

5th: ROARING LION (#10) See my notes from the BC Classic Future Wager. Given that he’s yet to be pointed to being here or the Classic, and I rank him best in the other race, he’s probably not going to get bet in this one unless my top choices are favored considerably.

4th: ENABLE (#5): Much-ballyhooed UK horse, winner of 8 of 9 lifetime. 12 furlong wins in his last 6 races (188bet September, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Darley Yorkshire Oaks, King George VI/Queen Elizabeth Stakes, the Darley Irish Oaks, and the Investec Oaks). Owns the best pace of this group and best pace pattern.

3rd: CRYSTAL OCEAN (#4): 11-5-4-2 lifetime. Last win was the Grade 2 Hardwicke at Ascot, 12 furlongs. Others at that distance: the Al Rayyan Aston Park, and the Bet365 Gordon Richards. Best speed figure was set just last time on 9/8 in the 189bet September Stakes. His pace and pace pattern are just a fraction lower than Enable’s. Runs again on 10/20.

2nd: ARKLOW (1) Runs in the Canadian International later this month. Ran a 99 at Churchill in the Grade 2 American Turf on Derby Day 2017. 12 furlong win last time out in the KY Turf Cup at Kentucky Down. It produced a figure of 105.

1st: CHANNEL MAKER (#3): Ran in this year’s Turf Classic at Churchill, 5th with an 81 score. Winner at 12 furlongs last time out in the Turf Classic Invitation at Belmont just last week. Has one of the better pace and pace pattern variables.

Based on current live odds, I’m confident in wagering on my top 3 for win bets. If more $ is taken, I may have to consider Roaring Lion, even tho I’m set on him for winning the Classic. Enable, win or lose in the Arc on Sunday, probably won’t impact my eventual wager all that much.

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