2018 Breeders Cup Classic future wager analysis/selections

The 2nd of 2 Breeders Cup Classic Future Wagers are already underway. I’ve only just now completed my research on the current field and how I feel it will be impacted.
Here are the variables I’m using for this wager: longest distance win, best pace at Churchill Downs (as the race is being run there), any forward or forging pace in the last 90 days since this weekend, measured by how fresh the fastest race was; fastest binomial pace; pace pattern. Horses that rank in the top 6 of each category the most are the ones I will wager on. Ties are broken based on the better individual numbers. I default to horses with best pace pattern or better pace if ties are still deadlocked.
11 of the 19 horses potentially qualified with 2 categories in the top 6. 3 horses stood out in particular. 8 horses had a place in either 0 or 1 category.
Here are the horses I like:
12th PAVEL (#13) Best CD run was 106 in this year’s Stephen Foster Handicap. One of the better pace patterns of the field. I have him at 24-1 from pool 1.
11th: DIVERSIFY (#7) won this year’s Suburban, and last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup at 10 furlongs. Fastest CD run was last year’s Clark Handicap at 100. I have him at 10-1 from pool 1
10th: TOAST OF NEW YORK (#17) won a 10 furlong allowance race in GB. Best score at CD was actually his most recent, a 104 in the Grade 3 Lukas Classic.
9th: WEST COAST (#18) won last year’s Travers at 10 furlongs. He also has one of the faster pace scores. Last 3: 104, 100 (adjusted from Racing Post), and 116.
8th: : AXELROD (#2) ranked with a 110 lifetime best mark in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby on 9/22. His current pace is actually one of the fastest of the field. Don’t know where he’s being pointed to next.
7th: MIND YOUR BISCUITS (#12) His best CD race was in the Lukas Classic, with a 109, best of this field here. Also owns a good overall pace.

6th:: COLLECTED (#5): Winner of last year’s Pacific Classic at 10-furlongs. 2nd best pace pattern of the field.

5th: McKINZIE (#10): Earned a strong gain in pace for his lifetime best, last time out…a 112 winning the Pennsylvania Derby. One of the fastest of this field.
Top 4 seem to the edge and am likely to wager on:
4th: CATHOLIC BOY (#4) He won the Travers, and the Belmont Derby Invitational, both at 10 furlongs. The Travers win earned him a new top of 108. One of the faster pace patterns. I have him at 7-1 from pool 1.
3rd: BRAVAZO (#3): He finished 6th in this year’s Kentucky Derby with a 93 but it’s good enough to be a fast CD pace. Peaked at 102 in the Travers before bounce in the PA Derby. Fast pace pattern

2nd: ACCELERATE (#1): WInner of the Santa Anita Gold Cup, the Pacific Classic and the Santa Anita Handicap, all at 10 furlongs. Peaked at 114 on 8/18 in the Pacific. 2nd best pace pattern of the field.

1st: ROARING LION (#14) Longest distance win of the field, 1-5/16, in the Juddmonte International at York. That same race is where he achieved his best speed, based on Racing Post info. Ranked fastest overall and best pace pattern. Don’t know if he’ll run in the Classic or the Turf but I’m likely to hedge.

As odds stand as I type this on Friday evening, I feel comfortable putting another win bet on Diversify at 26-1. Roaring Lion and Bravazo definitely getting bet. I’d have to go down to my #6 seed, Bravazo to wager a $2 win.

Later tonight, a look at the Breeders Cup Turf possibles via the future wager.

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