Remington Park stakes analysis, 9/30/18

Even though I temporarily am ‘in the barn’
with the ThoroEnduro contest at
Remington Park, and am missing out on
the 6 races all-stakes contest day, I
decided to give you my picks and analysis
for the 6 races:

6th race is the Red Earth Stakes, 7.5
furlongs on the turf course, open to
3YOs+ OK foals. Top 3 are 3-9-
7….favored Pacific Typhoon, then longshot
overlays Night Strike and Tenspeed.
Curmit is another overlay here.
I actually have both overlays very close in
this one. Night Strike I like on the strength
of his most recent race, facing OK breds at
the 43k allowance level. It was a slow
paced race for this deep closer, who stayed
closed to the lead in this 8-horse field. He
had improved 5 points at 1st call from his
last effort 2.5 months prior, and improved
a bit at 2nd call within the race.
Tenspeed has a very similar
pattern…improvement 6 weeks after layoff
at 1st call, and a gain of 2.5 lengths at 2nd
call in his last race vs 10k claimers. Gets
positive trainer change to Lynn Chleborad,
currently at 24% wins.
Curmit could bounce back in pace after
acheiving his lifetime best of 89 2 races
back last December. He bounced to 79
last out to begin his 4YO campaign route-
to-sprint. He’s the lone early closer of this
field. He might require a fast pace to win.

7th is the David M Vance Stakes, 150k
purse for 3YO+ going 6 furlongs. Top 3
are 2 of the favorites in Pop Keenan and
Welder, followed by Devil’s Halo. Leadem
in Ken is the lone overlay. 7-2-3
Devil’s Halo has 2 wins in 4 lifetime, his
maiden debut at the 58k level, then an 87k
allowance with a 94 BRIS score. He remains
under influence from that score and
should run back to it. Leadem in Ken gets
positive jockey switch to Israel Hernandez,
with whom he has 2 recent wins, tho
hasn’t been part of the RP meet. Early-
presser horses have won 15 of 42 races at
6 furlongs during the meet so far. Posts 4
-7 are winning 15% of them.

9th is when we really get going with the
values. This is
the Bob Barry Memorial Stake, for
fillies/mares 3YO+ going 7.5 furlongs on
turf, for a purse of 70k. Top 3 are 8-7-4..
Fiddler’s Tsumai, Just Leave and Penguini.
Overlays: Fiddler’s Tsunami, Penguini,
MImi’s Money, Rosie O’Prado and Sunday
Night Miss.
Fiddler’s Tsumani as an early.-presser has
the best tactical speed of the field. Recent
pattern of BRIS scores: 86, 84, 80.
Finished 4th and wide last time but well vs
40k horses in a 5-furlong allowance race,
just her 2nd time on turf.
Penguini was 6th in this race last year.
This race serves as her 6YO debut. She’s
done a number of works here since
October, last one very fast at 4 furlongs.
Mimi’s Money could benefit from track
bias. In 7 turf sprints during this meet, late
closers have won 2; 18% winners have
come from posts 4-7.
Rosie O’Prado owns strong AWD numbers
here (Paddy O’Prado/Nashwan Rose from
GB, out of Nashwan). Carries the low
weight of 112 in this field due to non-
winners allowance and 3YO status.
Improved at 2nd call upon her 3YO debut
just 2 weeks ago here.
Sunday Night Miss did well in her 4YO
debut, improving 11 points at 2nd call
since her prior race, and closed up 2
lengths against the leader then, winning by
1.5 lengths in a 46k allowance race vs
fellow OK fillies.

10th race is the Remington Park Oaks,
Grade 3 event for 3YO fillies, an 8.5
furlong race, with a 200k purse. Top 3 are
10-5-3…Hold Her Tight, She’s a Julie and
Hold Her Tight is one of the 2 overlays.
Prior winner fresh off layoff. Track bias
from small sample can benefit the outside
post. Busy worktab with 3 bullets in prep.
Remedy recovered in pace progress 4 races
after layoff and the beginning of her 3YO
season. 91 winner last time out vs 25k
optional-claimer, running on dirt following
2 on turf. That 91 is her new lifetime best
tho could bounce from there. She is the
lone sprinter of the field.

11th is the marquee race, the Oklahoma
Derby. This event is Grade 3 for 3YOs, 9
furlongs on dirt, for a $400k purse. Top e
are 3-1-11….Believe in Royalty, Lionite
and First Mondays.
Believe in Royalty is an overlay here.
Winner last tims in Iowa Derby with an 88.
Waiting the longest of this field to stretch
out. 4 works in prep with 1 very fast.
Improved well vs leader at 2nd call last
time out.
First Mondays owns the best pace pattern
of the field. He has 3 lifetime runs, with
BRIS scores of 93, 94, 94, and 2 wins plus
a 3rd. 3rd last time out in the Grade 3
Smarty Jones.

12th is the Ricks Memorial, 8.5 furlongs
on turf for fillies/mares 3YO+, 75k purse.
Top 3 are 1-6-8, all longshot overlays:
Little Code, Titled, Strive.
Little Code receives great training in prep
from Steve Asmussen, a 23% winner here.
Drops 4 lbs here, a move that granted
Little Code a win 2 races back. 3 works in
prep, last 2 being very fast.
Titled comes out of her lifetime best, a
small new top of 86. This early/presser
has the best tactical speed of the field. Ran
6th with an 86 in a 50k ungraded stakes
event last time out, tho could have done
better if it weren’t for traffic issues.
Strive was reclaimed by 18% winner Donnie
Von Hemel. Best distance, track and turf
speed of the field, a 94, which was
achieved in last year’s running of this race.

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