Remington Park stakes analysis, 9/30/18

Even though I temporarily am ‘in the barn’
with the ThoroEnduro contest at
Remington Park, and am missing out on
the 6 races all-stakes contest day, I
decided to give you my picks and analysis
for the 6 races:

6th race is the Red Earth Stakes, 7.5
furlongs on the turf course, open to
3YOs+ OK foals. Top 3 are 3-9-
7….favored Pacific Typhoon, then longshot
overlays Night Strike and Tenspeed.
Curmit is another overlay here.
I actually have both overlays very close in
this one. Night Strike I like on the strength
of his most recent race, facing OK breds at
the 43k allowance level. It was a slow
paced race for this deep closer, who stayed
closed to the lead in this 8-horse field. He
had improved 5 points at 1st call from his
last effort 2.5 months prior, and improved
a bit at 2nd call within the race.
Tenspeed has a very similar
pattern…improvement 6 weeks after layoff
at 1st call, and a gain of 2.5 lengths at 2nd
call in his last race vs 10k claimers. Gets
positive trainer change to Lynn Chleborad,
currently at 24% wins.
Curmit could bounce back in pace after
acheiving his lifetime best of 89 2 races
back last December. He bounced to 79
last out to begin his 4YO campaign route-
to-sprint. He’s the lone early closer of this
field. He might require a fast pace to win.

7th is the David M Vance Stakes, 150k
purse for 3YO+ going 6 furlongs. Top 3
are 2 of the favorites in Pop Keenan and
Welder, followed by Devil’s Halo. Leadem
in Ken is the lone overlay. 7-2-3
Devil’s Halo has 2 wins in 4 lifetime, his
maiden debut at the 58k level, then an 87k
allowance with a 94 BRIS score. He remains
under influence from that score and
should run back to it. Leadem in Ken gets
positive jockey switch to Israel Hernandez,
with whom he has 2 recent wins, tho
hasn’t been part of the RP meet. Early-
presser horses have won 15 of 42 races at
6 furlongs during the meet so far. Posts 4
-7 are winning 15% of them.

9th is when we really get going with the
values. This is
the Bob Barry Memorial Stake, for
fillies/mares 3YO+ going 7.5 furlongs on
turf, for a purse of 70k. Top 3 are 8-7-4..
Fiddler’s Tsumai, Just Leave and Penguini.
Overlays: Fiddler’s Tsunami, Penguini,
MImi’s Money, Rosie O’Prado and Sunday
Night Miss.
Fiddler’s Tsumani as an early.-presser has
the best tactical speed of the field. Recent
pattern of BRIS scores: 86, 84, 80.
Finished 4th and wide last time but well vs
40k horses in a 5-furlong allowance race,
just her 2nd time on turf.
Penguini was 6th in this race last year.
This race serves as her 6YO debut. She’s
done a number of works here since
October, last one very fast at 4 furlongs.
Mimi’s Money could benefit from track
bias. In 7 turf sprints during this meet, late
closers have won 2; 18% winners have
come from posts 4-7.
Rosie O’Prado owns strong AWD numbers
here (Paddy O’Prado/Nashwan Rose from
GB, out of Nashwan). Carries the low
weight of 112 in this field due to non-
winners allowance and 3YO status.
Improved at 2nd call upon her 3YO debut
just 2 weeks ago here.
Sunday Night Miss did well in her 4YO
debut, improving 11 points at 2nd call
since her prior race, and closed up 2
lengths against the leader then, winning by
1.5 lengths in a 46k allowance race vs
fellow OK fillies.

10th race is the Remington Park Oaks,
Grade 3 event for 3YO fillies, an 8.5
furlong race, with a 200k purse. Top 3 are
10-5-3…Hold Her Tight, She’s a Julie and
Remedy.
Hold Her Tight is one of the 2 overlays.
Prior winner fresh off layoff. Track bias
from small sample can benefit the outside
post. Busy worktab with 3 bullets in prep.
Remedy recovered in pace progress 4 races
after layoff and the beginning of her 3YO
season. 91 winner last time out vs 25k
optional-claimer, running on dirt following
2 on turf. That 91 is her new lifetime best
tho could bounce from there. She is the
lone sprinter of the field.

11th is the marquee race, the Oklahoma
Derby. This event is Grade 3 for 3YOs, 9
furlongs on dirt, for a $400k purse. Top e
are 3-1-11….Believe in Royalty, Lionite
and First Mondays.
Believe in Royalty is an overlay here.
Winner last tims in Iowa Derby with an 88.
Waiting the longest of this field to stretch
out. 4 works in prep with 1 very fast.
Improved well vs leader at 2nd call last
time out.
First Mondays owns the best pace pattern
of the field. He has 3 lifetime runs, with
BRIS scores of 93, 94, 94, and 2 wins plus
a 3rd. 3rd last time out in the Grade 3
Smarty Jones.

12th is the Ricks Memorial, 8.5 furlongs
on turf for fillies/mares 3YO+, 75k purse.
Top 3 are 1-6-8, all longshot overlays:
Little Code, Titled, Strive.
Little Code receives great training in prep
from Steve Asmussen, a 23% winner here.
Drops 4 lbs here, a move that granted
Little Code a win 2 races back. 3 works in
prep, last 2 being very fast.
Titled comes out of her lifetime best, a
small new top of 86. This early/presser
has the best tactical speed of the field. Ran
6th with an 86 in a 50k ungraded stakes
event last time out, tho could have done
better if it weren’t for traffic issues.
Strive was reclaimed by 18% winner Donnie
Von Hemel. Best distance, track and turf
speed of the field, a 94, which was
achieved in last year’s running of this race.

TVG Super 8 contest picks 9/22/18

I thought I would enter the TVG Super 8 contest, having the work day off. 5 wins out of the 8 earns me cash. For brevity’s sake I’ll focus on my actual pick, the win horse. Here’s how I see them:

Belmont race 5: Statebred 25k maidens going 6.5 furlongs on dirt, 33k purse. Top 3 are 5-3-4. The Vow Is Lit gets blinkers for the first time while also debuting at a sprint. Last race was here 3 months ago, against older horses. He seemed to make up some ground against the leading horse by the 2nd call, helped by a very past pace. Very good work tab coming in. Longshot play to begin.

Belmont race 6: 25k claimers, 3YO+, going 7 furlongs on turf, $50k purse. Top 3: 9-10-3 Canarsie Kid last ran on 8/6, and has the longest layoff of those who are stretching out. That race on 8/6 at Saratoga saw him run 6-wide with an 89 BRIS score.

Gulfstream Park race 8 I didn’t find free PPs for, so I leaned to Equibase and their latest stats for jockeys and trainers per track. I combined the win% for both sides. Best combo here belongs to #3, Straightaway May.  25% wins this meet for Gallegos.

Laurel Park race 10: Frank J De Francis Memorial Dash. Grade 3 event, 6 furlongs, 3YO+. Purse $250k. Top 3: 3-5-4. Colonel Sharp in the money 7 of her last 8. He’s also the lone early closer. Nice, steady race last out enroute to his 6th lifetime win, and a 75 BRIS.

Gulfstream Park race 10: $6250 claimers going 1 mile, $17k purse. Top 3:12-9-6
America’s Simmard as a late closer made a big move from 1st to 2nd call last time out, closing late but ran rather wide, still finishing 6th. I’m banking on a better effort today, considering that he ran on a sloppy track that day and matched his maiden debut from a year ago with a 72 BRIS.

Laurel Park, race 11 is the Grade 1, 9 furlong Pennsylvania Derby, for leading 3YOs. Purse of 1000k. Top 3: 2-10-3 Hofburg, 2nd in the Florida Derby, then 7th in the Run for all those Roses, 3rd in the Belmont, won the restricted ungraded Curlin Stakes last time out 2 months ago, 105 BRIS. With the chance of rain in PA today, and considering his success on an off track, it legitimizes his pattern of triple-digit scores. 5 workouts since the Curlin, all at Saratoga, 2 bullets.

Belmont Park race 9: 40k claimers going 7 furlongs, fillies/mares non winners of 2.Purse of $42k. Top 3: 6-1-7 Havana Affair gets back blinkers today. Only early speed in this field. Couldn’t sustain last time despite flat pace. She might need or otherwise need to set fast pace for any chance.

Belmont Park race 10: 40k statebred filly maidens going 6 furlongs on the inner turf course, 41k purse. Top 3: 8-12-2. Ma Mo has competed decently against other NY-bred fillies in 4 races, peaking at 77 two races back, matched with 75 cutting back to 5.5 furlongs. Last race saw him get off to a stumbling start but overcame this to finish 3rd and close. I like the pace pattern.

Post-mortem of last weekend’s races and Future Wager thoughts (and a rant)

An opinion (rant) before we begin..
I’m feeling miffed about Brisnet lately. Never have I had to contact them about the lack of available information that can make the difference between wagering and wagering (and profiting) intelligently.
In the past, I have questioned the timing of the future wagers with the horses and races involved. This past weekend was no exception. A number of races were, indeed, held before the wager would close. Some of the bigger races were being held the same day and on Monday. A handicapper cannot realistically wager on a future pool without hard data as well as some instinct on how the race was run. BRIS ratings aren’t usually made available until days after, tho the Twinspires Twitter HAVE (my insistence) posted winning numbers after the fact for some races on a Sunday. They’ve also included fastet BRIS numbers for the week prior. It’s something, but I need more.
Why can’t Brisnet simpy have a product that will publish the BRIS numbers of the winning horses for each track, each race, per day? I’d pay for that info if I knew I’d use that info to make a wager with. Pace is certainly a major factor, like many others, in determining whom to wager on. It’s not the only big one but it’s up there.
Speaking with Brisnet customer service people, they don’t list BRIS numbers at all for a horse until it’s his/her turn to run again. Then why are some numbers published on social media? If it’s behind a pay wall, how does one get access? Those questions could not get answered to my understanding.

I had wanted the BRIS numbers of related races this past weekend to help create a hypothetical situation: If BRIS numbers were published on Tuesday, what would be the way I’d bet in the future wager? Obviously it’s hard to wager on missing data.
The only info I could gleam was from the Brisnet tweet re top BRIS scores from the week ending 9/3. One of the best was in the Del Mar Futurity….a 97 by Game Winner. Fine. One tiny piece of the puzzle. Where’s the Sapling? The Hopeful? The races that involve the actual Derby 2YO hopefuls??
Let’s see how I did with my picks from that abbreviated Saturday post:

Sapling: Blazin Liason was scratched. Unionizer, my next choice in order, did win. My 3rd choice, Stage Left, did finish 3rd.
Kentucky Downs Juvenile: Dragic, my top pick, finished 3rd.
Sunday Silence: 4-8-6 My top 3 finished 2-3-1, in Ice City Ghost, Cabo’s Rumor and Big Bobby Brown. Not a bad trifecta of $432.50 if you put in 50 cents. It’s what you get with a favorite, a mild value horse and a longshot involved!
Hopeful: Nitrous, my 2nd choice, finished 3rd/
Del Mar Futurity: Scored natural exacta of Game Winner and Rowayton. $16.10 exacta per $1 wagered.
Sorority: Decorated Ace, my 3rd choice, won.
Del Mar Debutante: Bouje Girl, my top choice, finished 3rd. Mother Mother, my 3rd choice, finished 2nd.
Spinaway: Restless Rider, my 3rd choice, finished 2nd.
Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies: Miss Technicality, my top pick, did win out.
Happy Ticket: Scored the natural exacta of Taylor’s Spirit and Flatoutandfoxy
As mentioned on Twitter (@IdealisticStats), my haste in wagering at the time I did caused human error. I intended to wager on the Juvenile pool, not the Sire pool. Twinspires doesn’t have a separate listing for the products, just a separate package for both and an individual one for the Juveniles. When it came time to wager, I was using the mobile site, and I had to choose race 1 and 2. I discovered that I had the screen set up on Race 2, which was the Sire wager. My picks, therefore, went to that race, and not to the Juveniles. I was crushed to learn that this took place. If I was on the laptop, it would have been somewhat easier, as at least the races are listed by name, tho they won’t list horses until you hover over the numbers.
Here’s my wayward and unintended picks for the Juvenile Sire Wager:
$2 win bets on
Dialed In 40-1
Orb 27-1
Tapizar 41-1
Uncle Mo 28-1
Violence 29-1
Any shots at winning the Juvenile with these? Let’s see. Dialed In has Pocket Dynamo, who was 2nd in the Grade 2 Norfolk in UK. Orb has the filly Sippican Harbor who won the Spinaway. As for colts, no one showing up yet. Nothing at all from Tapizar yet, and no mo’ from Uncle Mo it seems for this season. The chances for Violence seem promising. Strike Silver was 2nd in the Grade 3 Sanford at the Spa.
The 5 horses I had meant to take but erred on wagering on were these:
Endorsed
Mucho
Tight Ten
Tobacco Road
Unionizer

Enlightened Trails picks for stakes races this weekend:

Given a very short time frame to get analysis in, I’m simply posting my top 3 of the major races involved in my Enlightened Trails:

Sapling: 3-5-6
Kentucky Downs Juvenile: 7-3-10
Sunday Silence: 4-8-6
Hopeful: 5-3-8
Del Mar Futurity: 7-2-1
Sorority: 4-6-2
Del Mar Debutante: 1-2-4
Spinaway: 5-7-11
Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies: 7-4-6
Happy Ticket: 6-1-3

Working this weekend, so no real time to check out these races as they happen. Might have to spend the $2 for the Brisnet speed results tomorrow so as to figure out the Juvenile Future Wager.