2018 Breeders Cup Juvenile Future Wager analysis

In examining these wagers, new wrinkles for the future wager experience, I struggled with which varialbles to use this time around. I had hoped for these wagers to evoke more of the Derby Pool 1 and Derby Sire wagers. Alas, this is not totally the case. Brisnet provided lifetime sire info, but nothing on their progeny for the linked past performances to the future wager product. The long way around this would be to recreate the 2YO progeny experience. To do this, I’d have to do the following:
Look up all sires in the sire pool.
Use Bloodhorse to get a list of 2YO progeny per stallion. There are a number of them between leading runners, recent results of same, and upcoming entries likewise. I had planned to use the AWD numbers of the sires, plus these variables for the progeny: longest distance win, average BRIS speed, fastest CD speed, and best class win.
4 sires in out of 23, I waved the white flag. There’s too much data and not enough time in my day to make this a reality. I’ll need to wait for BRIS to design the Derby Sire Wager in November. I am therefore skipping the Juvenile Sire Future Wager.

Onto the Juvenile Future Wager itself, the lone pool for this race…. Here are the variables I’m using: Distance, Class, CD pace, overall pace, and AWD. I kept the top 7, plus ties, for all categories, and listed who I felt should belong after splitting tiebreakers. We’ll go in reverse order:

8th: #3 CODE OF HONOR (Noble MIssion, sire) 6 furlong win vs 85k maidens at Saratoga on 8/18, 93 BRIS, one of the faster horses profiled.
7th: #2 CALL PAUL (Friesan Fire) debuted with a 98 vs 34k maidens at Del Mar on 7/5. Stretching to 6.5 furlongs on 8/12 at Saratoga, he was favored to win the Grade 2 Saratoga Special…and indeed win by a length, with a 93 score.
6th: #22 UNIONIZER (Union Rags) debuted vs 75k maidens at Belmont on 7/7, finishing 7th with a 70 score. Switching barns to William Mott, he stretched to 7 furlongs and moved up to maiden 85k field, he won with a 79 score.
Top 5 are getting my money, provided the odds are 6-1 or worse.

5th: #10 MUCHO (Blame) was 2nd vs 75k maidens on 6/10 at Belmont, 71 score. 2 months later, moved up to 6 furlongs and 85k maidens, scorching the competition with a 96 and winning by 9.75 furlongs.
4th:#19 TIGHT TEN (Tapit) won his debut at Churchill on 6/28, 85 Brisnet. Finished 2nd in the Saratoga Special, 92 BRIS.
3rd: #8 INSTAGRAND (Into Mischief) won his 2 races by 10 lengths each. First was vs 40k maidens at LRC on 6/29, then winning the Grade 2 Best Pal on 8/11 at Delmar. Scores were 88 and 100.
2nd: #5 ENDORSED (Medaglia d’Oro) has one race, a win vs 85 maidens at Saratoga on 8/18.
Top pick is #20, TOBACCO ROAD (Quality Road). 5th in his debut at 6 furlongs at Churchill, 6/28, 71 BRIS. Won vs 42k maiden at Ellis Park, 7 furlongs, 7/29, 85 BRIS. Then won the Ellis Park Juvenile with an 87, 7 furlongs.

Here’s who, as best as I know, are running on Saturday, of these:

Hopeful: Dream Master, Mucho, Nitrous, Sombeyay
Sapling: Unionizer
Del Mar Futurity: Instagrand, Roadster.

2018 Breeders Cup Classic Pool 1/Distaff future wager selections

As hinted on in Twitter, I was dismayed for not getting to do more research post-Travers Day. Brisnet or TwinSpires did not tweet out the winning BRIS number of either the Travers or the Personal Ensign. Without this, and while waiting out the matter, I decided to plunk down $2 more at Brisnet’s website just to get the speed ratings, listed by horse. I failed to give myself time for researching the Personal Ensign itself, or to the number for Abel Tasman. I did locate the huge 108 number by Catholic Boy.  I hardly liked him, tho he did prove to be effective first after layoff.     The wins in both races did change the ranks in 3 of my 5 variables, and moved my overall rankings just enough to come up with a top 5.
Here’s how I wagered the first Classic pool:
$2 win bets on
Catholic Boy  7-1
Diversify 10-1
Good Magic 13-1
Hofburg 18-1
Pavel 24-1

Distaff selections…$2 win on
Blue Prize 26-1
Eskimo Kisses 12-1
Farrell 26-1
She’s A Julie 24-1
Wonder Gadot  14-1

Coming up this weekend will be a whole (Seattle) slew of major races, and some that are part of my Enlightened Trails, and thoughts on the next round of Future Wagers…the Breeders Cup Juvenile and BC Juvenile Sire.

 

2018 Travers Stakes (plus stakes undercard) analysis & selections

Travers Day is upon us, and with some cool ties to
the Breeders Cup Challenge Series. The Travers
itself, plus the Personal Ensign for the fillies, are 2
races that award automatic entries for winners of
those races. I suppose the others have to buy their
way in.
I have, as promised, the results of my handicapping
covering the Travers Stakes and the 4 stakes races
for its undercard (the Ballston Spa, which runs after,
is not included. Should that be considered the
‘post-card’ event?).
H ALLEN JERKENS STAKES: Grade 1, 7 furlongs,
3YOs, $500k purse.
Top 3 are 8-3-1: Firenze Fire, Engage, Promises
Fulfilled. Projected overlays: Seven Triumphs.
With the ML favored Firenze Fire ahead in my picks,
this is likely a race to pass up. I will say that Seven
Triumphs does warrant some attention. He switches
from Belmont after a 6 week layoff. He’s been 1st or
2nd first after layoff in 3rd lifetime situations. Won
a $100k optional claimer event on a sloppy
Churchill track late May, returning to his 2YO best
speeds. One of several with great worktabs: 4
works in all, all at Saratoga, 2 bullets. 2nd last time
out in the Grade 3 Dwyer. Closed on the leader by .5
lengths at 2nd call. I say to use him with my top 3.
Odds prediction: Firenze Fire is the lone mover.
Being an early main favorite, he should be taking a
ton of money. Wager at your peril.

PERSONAL ENSIGN STAKES: Grade 1, 9 furlongs,
3YO+ fillies, mares, $700k. Top 3: 6-3-4: Elate,
Fuhriously Kissed, Wow Cat. Overlays: Fuhriously
Kissed, and She Takes Heart.
Just a 6-horse field, and the front half taking most
of the money here. I will take the gamble on the 2
double-digit longshots. Fuhriously Kissed is the
one I see for a possible upset under the ML favored
Elate. 3 of 19 lifetime who hasn’t won since an
optional claimer race last summer at the Spa.
Generally mixed blessings since, with 3 3rd-place
finishes in stakes races. Despite his pace pattern
around 90, I like that he has a pattern at all, unlike
his peers here. Also he’s the lone late closer.
She Takes Heart set a huge lifetime best of 98,while
finishing 2nd in the Add Elegance, improving a ton
from the Princess Rooney late June. Despite the
bounce risk, I’ll play here. Also, do note the track
bias. Half of the 9-furlong races run on the Spa dirt
track have been won by sprinters. 18% of horses in
posts 1-3 at this distance have won.
Odds prediction: Only one trend here, and it seems
that Elate, morning-lane favorite, will actually take
less money. She is potentially bouncing back in
pace after 3 double digit scores, and is the lone
horse to excel at 2nd call vs leader last time out.
Pretty good race to wager.

BALLERINA STAKES: Grade 1, $500k purse, 7
furlongs, for fillies/mares 3YO+. Top 3 are 9-4-
5…Highway Star, Cairenn, Finley’sluckycharm.
Overlays: Highway Star, Cairenn, Union Strike.
Undoubtedly a very attractive race to wager.
Highway Star was 2nd in 4 of her last 5 races, and
last won in last year’s Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes
with a 96. Finally surpassed this with a 100 last
time out in the Grade 3 Bed O’ Roses at Belmont,
June 8. That score matched her lifetime best. She
actually could have won that race had she not run
3-4 wide in pursuit of Lewis Bay. Best works of this
field: 4 in all, 3 at Saratoga, 1 with a bullet.
Cairenn, following trainer switch to Graham Motion
from 25% winner Mark Reid, has run her best
lifetime races…98 running 3rd in the Bed O’ Roses,
then a 93 in a 75k stakes race, then 97 in a 100k
stakes event early this month at the Spa. Last win
came on 4/2, vs 25k optional claimers. I am a fan
of the recent pace pattern.
Union Strike is just out of the barn of Alvin Ruis,
and into the company of Steve Asmussen, winning
at a 21% clip. Last win was in April of 2017, in the
Santa Paula at Santa Anita. Not much success in
Graded company since those races, save a 2nd
place finish in last year’s Eight Belles at Churchill.
She’s the lone late closer of the field.
Odds movement: Two of the prominently favored
horses should be taking more than usual:
Finley’sluckycharm, and Lewis Bay. Meanwhile, two
others might get ignored by the public: the
aforementioned Union Strike, and longest of
longshots in Tequilita. Tequilita has very steady
fast pace figures 4 races into her 4YO career, since
a 6 month layoff.

Update: Following this morning’s scratch of Highway Star, I’m going with Cairenn, Finley’sluckycharm, and Union Strike as my new top 3. Overlays are the same.

FOREGO STAKES: Grade 1, $600k purse, 7 furlongs
for 3YO+. Top 3 here are 7-8-1: Warrior’s Club,
City of Light, and Limousine Liberal. Overlays:
Warrior’s Club. Last win was the Commonwealth,
Grade 3 event at Keeneland back in April. Finished
2nd in the Churchill Downs Stakes with a 99, 10th
in the Metropolitan with a 92, 3rd in the Kelly’s
Landing with a small new top of 101, and 2nd last
out in the AG Vanderbilt a month ago, with a 100. I
like the paired up high scores, even if it comes at a
bit of a bounce risk. Ran a bit wide in the
Vanderbilt, and might have ran a faster race off the
slightly fast pace. D Wayne Lukas has done well
with her since that effort; she’s a month away from
the track, longest layoff of those stretching out
here.
Odds movement: I don’t like longshot No Dozing or
4th ML choice CZ Rocket, but both threaten to take
a lot more $ than normal, more so than in the other
races on this undercard. No Dozing exploded to a
104 last time out a month ago, and is quite the
bounce risk. CZ Rocket did likewise last time out
while winning the Kellys Lounge, but his
connections haven’t run at Saratoga this meet, and
also face a bounce. Tough call as she’s got the best
speed rating for the distance, a huge 108. As for
those who may take less money, Whitmore, who is
3rd ML choice, could be ignored. Good pedigree
compared to these (Pleasantly Perfect/Melody’s
Spirit, out of Scat Daddy) I’d still key Warrior’s Club
among the threatening chalk in another possible
upset.

SWORD DANCER STAKES: 12 furlongs on Saratoga’s
inner turf course. Grade 1, $1000k purse for 3YO+.
Top 2 here are easily the favored Sadler’s Joy
(lukewarm ML edge at 7-2) and Funtastic. I can’t
separate those behind them, mainly Spring Quality
and longshot Revved Up, who appears to be the
lone overlay here.
Revved Up could shake up this relatively chalky
field. He goes from Shug McGaughey’s barn to Jorge
Abreu’s (16 to 19%). Last won in November in an
80k optional claimer, with a year’s best 98. Mixed
blessings since: 3rd in the River City, 6th in the
Gulfstream Park Turf, 9th in the Muzin Memorial,
4th in a 100k OC race, and 2nd last out in the
Arlington Handicap. Owns at least one win first off
layoff. 5 works in prep…all at the Spa, tho none
very fast. This late closer did improve on the leader
last time out, and does need a fast pace late to set
up a win.
Odds movement: Lots of money flying about here..
Horses that I predict to be bet down: Funtastic, plus
longshots Glorious Empire and Highland Sky.
Glorious Empire is just off his lifetime of 98, paired
with a 93 prior to that, 2 straight wins. Highland
Sky has had very similar story, a new small top of
99, plus a similar run of 94 last out.
Horses getting ignored here include Hi Happy and
Bigger Picture, 2 good value horses. Hi Happy
could be the sleeper of the Travers undercard.
Started his 6YO career with a 3rd place in the GP
Turf, 1st race after switch from Felipe Souza to 17%
Todd Pletcher. Won the Pan American and Man
O’War with 101s. 3rd in the Manhattan with a 96,
then bounced to a 90 in the Bowling Green last
month here. I’m rooting for him to do a nice
bounceback. I also like his last 3 2nd call numbers
very much…111, 102, 95.
Bigger Picture is the lone early closer here. Also, he
ran a 97 in the Bowling Green last time out, and ran
it increasingly wide throughout the 11-furlong
race.

TRAVERS: 10 furlongs of championship racing,
$1250k purse for leading 3YOs. Top 3 are Vino
Rosso, Wonder Gadot, and King Zachary. Overlays:
Vino Rosso, King Zachary, Mendelssohn. This is
the other major race today worth playing.
Vino Rosso, following his triumph in the Wood
Memorial with a 102, bounced to 91 in the KY
Derby, then up again to 105 in the Belmont, then
down again to 93 last time in the Jim Dandy just a
month ago. Uptick again? Sure, why not? I’ll figure
he’ll return right back to triple digits.
Wonder Gadot, carrying 121 to the boys’ 126, may
have the edge right there. She was 2nd in the
Fantasy Stakes with an 84, peaked to a 102 in the
KY Oaks, was 2nd in the Woodbine Oaks with a 91,
then won the Queen’s Plate with a 98, and also the
Prince of Wales with an 88. Also choosing the
bounceback angle here.
King Zachary was 6th in the Wood Memorial, then
won a 75k OC race, also won the Matt Winn at
Churchill with a lifetime best 99, then bounced
again to 93 while finishing 4th in the Indiana Derby.
Best AWD numbers of these (Curlin/On My Way,
out of Giant’s Causeway). Owns the best work tab
too: 4 works, 3 at the Spa, 2 very fast, 1 a bullet.
Mendelssohn won last year’s BC Juvenile Turf, then
the UAE Derby and Dubai World Cup. Finished last
in the KY Derby, and then 3rd in the Grade 3 Dwyer
in early July. Might bounce from that 90 effort last
time, tho he’s waited longest of those stretching
out.
Odds: I see outright longshot Trigger Warning
taking more $. He’d put up a 99 and 96 as a new
pair of tops. He placed in the Indiana and Ohio
Derbies. Prior to that, he won the 100k Tom Ridge,
and a 28k allowance. I don’t like him but he’s
bound to get bet down by others. Meistermind will
get some attention, too. A lifetime router, it took
him 5 tries to break maiden. Then he paired up that
95 score with a 90 last time on a muddy Saratoga
track. I think he’s being set up for a bounce today.

Wonder Gadot naturally deserves attention for being
the filly, but it won’t translate into $. The savvy
horseplayers will definitely give her a favorable look
but most will sense she’s got too much to
overcome.

Update: Following the scratch of Meistermind, my top 3 are basically the same, with a new order of Vino Rosso, King Zachary, Wonder Gadot. Overlays remain the same.

2018 Breeders Cup Classic and Distaff future wager thoughts

I am overjoyed to learn that the Breeders Cup had put in place several Future Wager pools for some of the BC races.
I have begged for these pools to be instituted for some time, at least some expansion of the pools. Before this, outside of a sportsbook, the only way to wager on the KY Derby or KY Oaks would be the 4 pools that run between November and April. Now there is new juice available, and I’m ready to make a run at these.
23 horses are in the Classic Future Wager (doesn’t that just sound lovely?) and 22 in the BC Distaff. Bets are individual $2 wagers. No field selections in these pools. Nice and simple.

5 horses have already qualified in the BC Challenge Series. The next races to impact the Classic will be the Awesome Again at Santa Anita in September, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont in October.
For the Distaff, there are 3 that will impact: the Personal Ensign, being run this weekend; the Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita in September, and the Spinster at Keeneland in October. In the Personal Ensign, these horses will contend: Abel Taman, She Takes Heart, Fuhriously Kissed, Wow Cat, Farrell and Elate.
All BC Challenge races award an entry to the winner of the corresponding BC race. The field gets filled further by nominations; that is my best guess, anyway.

There are 2 pools for the Classic, one this weekend, the other on the first weekend in October. the BC Juvenile, plus a Juvenile Sire pool, will be open next weekend! The Distaff pool is this weekend, and the Turf will be on the first week of October.

For my strategy, I know this much: It will be different than for the Derby or Oaks because we’re taking into account a lot of lifetime and recent stats, and very little inherent stuff. Of course, these horses will run 1 or 2 more times before November, so it’s still rather risky. Aside, there is the matter of actually winning the challenge races, or having the earnings or nomination to get into the field.
I won’t be using the field selections of these wagers, tho I know they’ll definitely take some money, as usual. Without an exacta opportunity in these 6 pools, it’s probably not wise to choose this option.

Here are my variables. I have had to take a limited view as I’m using Brisnet’s past performance services, and they allow me to see just the last 10 races, not lifetime stats. It’s something of a drawback, but not entirely.
I have just 5 variables in play. I choose the top 7 in each plus ties. Those with the most rankings get top consideration, up to 5 horses.
My wagers will be the mandated $2 win on the first 5 in the list that I believe will be 6-1 or worse by pool’s close.
0
DISTANCE: Longest distance win, as published in Brisnet. Exactly 7 horses had won in 10-furlong races.
CHURCHILL DOWNS PACE: Fastest listed pace run at Churchill. 9 have had any recent runs there.
FORGED PACE: Any horse who set a new speed figure ‘top’ since May. I choose the most recent 7 of these tops, measured by date set.
BINOMIAL PACE: Multiply the most recent speed figure by 3, next most recent by 2, third-most by itself gets added in. The totals get added up. The raw number is what I’m looking for. In the case of hores running outside of North America, I have my own system that uses the British Racing Post numbers, adjusting based on distance, age and class. Looking for the highest raw numbers.
PATTERN: I look for either of 2 patterns: Up/down in speed figure, and a variance in the horse’s last 3 races that is no greater than 7 points. Fastest patterns get in.

11 horses in all qualified with at 2 in the top 7. Here are those 11:
11th: #4 CATALINA CRUISER has just 3 starts but all doozies. 2.25 lengths win in his maiden debut vs fellow 3YOs at Santa Anita last October, 95 Brisnet. Off 7 months he wins by the same margin vs optional claimer 40k horses, same 6 furlong distance. Speed was 106. Wins the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar going away, after a 2 month layoff and his first time at a route distance, winning with a 108. 15-1 are nice odds if I have to bet down this far to get him.
10th: #6 COLLECTED has 8 wins in 14 lifetime. No races since the Pegasus World Cup in January, he peaked at 111 in 2 Graded races last year. Last year’s Pacific Classic win was a 10-furlong race. Current pace projection for pace is slightly downward but still plenty fast compared to these other 22 horses.
9th: #23 WEST COAST ran a game 2nd last out in the Dubai World Cup and in the Pegasus prior to that. Winners of last year’s Travers Stakes at 10 furlongs. Very fast pace numbers based on his last 3 runs.
8th: SAXON WARRIOR a wild card here as he’s raced only in the UK. Winners of his first 4, and never worse than 4th. The Racing Post suggests his pace numbers are very fast in comparison to the others in this pool. He even sports a very fast pace pattern.
7th: #20: THUNDER SNOW still a true mystery horse, as he was removed from the Triple Crown races. Winner of this year’s 10-furlong Dubai World Cup and last year’s Prix Jean Prat in France. Pace pattern is competitive to these.
6th: #3 BRAVAZO hasn’t won since February, that being the Risen Star. Has had limited success in Graded company since. Set new top on June 9th in the Belmont, with a 101. Best run at Churchill was this year’s Derby, with a 93 while finishing 6th.
Now for the top 5:
5th: #17: PAVEL was 4th in this year’s Dubai World Cup, and since then was 6th in the Santa Anita Gold Cup, won the Stephen Foster with a 106 at Churchill (best CD score of these horses), and was 2nd in the Pacific Classic. Overall pace and pace pattern is in the top 7 here. Love the 30-1 odds.
4th: #22 VINO ROSSO was 3rd in the Jim Dandy, and 4th in the Belmont, where his 105 set a new top. Ran a 91 in the Kentucky Derby. Pace is decent but pace pattern is as good as others here. 30-1 is also a nice price.
3rd: #12 HOFBURG won his 2nd maiden race with a 96, 2nd in the Florida Derby with a 104, was 7th in the KY Derby, 3rd in the Belmont, setting a new top of 106, and then paired up with a 105 while winning a sloppy Curln Stakes at Saratoga on 7/27. Pace and pace pattern here very competitive. Also one to like at 30-1
2nd: #7 DIVERSIFY has won 10 of 15 lifetime, including his last 3; the Whitney with a 101, the Suburban with a new top of 114, and the Commentator at Belmont with another 101. No pace pattern for him here but he qualified in all other categories. Ran a 100 in last year’s Clark at CD. 5-1 odds are not attractive enough to wager on but that can certainly change.
1st: ACCELERATE is touted as the big favorite and I must agree. 18 of 20 in the money lifetime; 1st or 2nd in his last 6 races. Very fast pace and pace pattern. Set new top of 114 last time out, winning the 10-furlong Pacific Classic by 12.

Hofburg, Vino Rosso, Pavel, Bravazo and Thunder Snow most likely to be wagered upon, $2 each for win.
Here’s how I see the Distaff:
7 horses qualified out of the 22 for my consideration for betting for win here:

7th: #9 FARRELL: Winner last out of the Grade 3 9-furlong Shuvee at Saratoga. Peaked prior to that with a 100 in the Fleur De Lis on 6/16 at Churchill, scoring 100. 30-1

6th: #18 SHE’S A JULIE: Best race was in July, winning the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks with a 99. Followed up with a 96 running 2nd in the Alabama. One of the faster fillies of the field, with last 4 races in the 90s. Worth a shot at 50-1

Top 5 here for my consideration:
5th: #1 ABEL TASMAN ran lifetime best 112 in last year’s Distaff, finishing 2nd. Since then, she was 4th in the La Troienne, then won the Ogden Phipps, scoring a 101. Twice a winner at 9 furlongs. Winner of the Kentucky Oaks with a 102. One of the faster pace figures of the field. Hard to like at 4-1.
4th: #8 ESKIMO KISSES Won the Alabama with a new top of 103 last week. Great pace profile, tho no real pattern. Might be good for value at 8-1.
3rd:#3 BLUE PRIZE won this year’s Top Flight Invitational and the Fleur De Lis, the latter being a small new top of 102, set on 6/16. That 9-furlong race at CD ties 3 others for the best CD score of the 22 in this pool. Also has one of the leading pace totals. Good pick here at 30-1.
2nd: WONDER GADOT: Winner of this year’s Queen’s Plate and Prince of Wales, she ran her best at CD in the KY Oaks, scoring a 102. Not the fastest here but has a competitive pace pattern 5-1 is an iffy pick here.
1st: MONOMOY GIRL is highly favored in the pool at 7/2. Probably not going to pick here but she deserves her place. Winner of 8 of 9 lifetime except for last year’s Golden Rod. Peaked at 102 in her KY Oaks win, and since then ran a 100 in the Acorn, and a 96 in the CC American Oaks. Competitive pace and pattern here.

I’m likely going with these five, depending on the movement of odds and the outcome of the Personal Ensign: Blue Prize, Eskimo Kisses, She’s A Julie, and Farrell. I know I need a 5th. Will split those hairs on Sunday if need be!
Post coming Friday night as I preview the major stakes action that is Travers Day at the Spa.

Pacific Classic, Alabama Stakes predictions

I haven’t totally ignored the Enlightened Trails. In fact, I do have an update of both spreadsheets, published on the blog. Once we reach September, I’ll analyze and forecast more of those races.

Today I focus on 2 of the big races for Saturday, the TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar, and the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga.

For the Alabama Stakes, my top 3 going in are 4-1-3: She’s a Julie, Piedi Bianchi and Midnight Bisou. I do see 2 overlays here in Piedi Bianchi and Auspicious Babe.

Piedi Bianchi, since her maiden win, was 2nd in last year’s Del Mar Debutante, 3rd in the Chandler, 5th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies, 3rd in the Starlet, and 3rd last out in a 77k allowance race; that most recent race was after claim by Pletcher from O’Neill and 2 layoffs. Only early closer in the field. Waiting since June 24 to stretch out from a sprint.
Auspicious Babe debuted in May at Churchill with a 73, then won with an 81 3 weeks later, then another win with an 87 vs 75k optional claimers. 5 works since that race on 6/29, the majority of them rather fast, the last 2 at Saratoga.

In the Classic I like 1-5-7…The Lieutenant, Accelerate, and Pavel. The Lieutenant appears to be the one overlay here. Won the All American 2 races back with a 96, his debut on an all-weather surface, then 2nd in the Suburban at Belmont, stretching to 10 furlongs, and scoring a dazzling 107. If not for the wide trip, he might have won out. Switches jockeys back to Drayden Van Dyke. Won here at Del Mar last year in a 40k optional claimer event. Gained 2.5 lengths between calls last time out too.