Stephen Foster Handicap analysis

The Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs is a race for 3YO+, 9 furlongs, with a 500k purse, at the Grade 1 level.
My top 3 horses here are 6-2-9…Backyard Heaven, Patch and Pavel.
Overlays: Patch, Lookin At Lee.
Patch won his 2nd maiden race with a 101 score, was 2nd in the Louisiana Derby with a 98, then bounced in the KY Derby. He would finish 3rd in the Belmont, then 4th in the WV Derby, then won an allowance race last month debuting as a 4YO. He is the only early closer in this race.
Lookin At Lee comes out of a 62.5k optional claimer win here at CD, scoring a 98, a small new top that was just better than his runs in the Triple Crown races.Slight possibility of a bounce, as he paired his 98 with a 95 in the Oaklawn, ahead of an 88 in another allowance race. 4 works here at Churchill in prep.

I plan to use Lookin At Lee and Patch for wins, and use under Backyard Heaven for exactas. Lots of ways to score, as I’d likely use Pavel with some exactas here as well, assuming the ML odds.

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