Enlightened Derby/Oaks Trails (Gulfstream Park)

Gulfstream Park Oaks is set for 13 fillies today, 8.5 furlongs, Grade 2, $300k purse. My top 3 here are Eight Thirtyone, Princess Warrior, and Daisy. Overlays are Eight Thirtyone, Mihrab and Alter Moon.
Odds impact: Coach Rocks, a horse I gave full attention to in the Oaks Future Wager, should be bet down somewhat, possibly to 3rd favorite. I also foresee Take Charge Paula, the ML favorite, to be bet down even further. Among those being ignored: Eight Thirtyone, CS Incharge, and Princess Warrior.

Eight Thirtyone has just 2 starts, both wins, at MVR. His debut was vs 22k maiden fillies, then an allowance race vs 23.5k allowance fillies, non winners of 2. Speed figures were 85 and 76. Great tactical speed for this pure sprinter. Track bias is kind to sprinters at the 8.5 furlong distance: 35% of sprinters have won. 21% have won via the rail post. Mihrab won her 2nd try at maiden at the 40k level, and debut on dirt and sprint. 4th in the Gin Talking, 3rd in the Suncoast, switching from Laurel to Tampa Bay. Gained 3 lengths on the leader at the 2nd call point in the Suncoast.
Alter Moon won her 2nd maiden race at 50k, then was 6th in the Grade 2 Davona Dale. Races have been between 6 and 8 furlongs, with speed figures of 87 to 91. Love the consistency.

 

The Florida Derby pits some of the best 3YOs, going 9 furlongs, for a $1.1 million purse. Top 3 here are favored Catholic Boy and Strike Power, then overlay Hofburg. I also like Millionaire Runner and Tip Sheet as overlays.
Hofburg dazzled in his 2nd maiden race and first in a route. Switching from Saratoga to Gulfstream, he went from a 79 to a 96, improving on both first and 2nd call following a 6 month layoff.
Millionaire Runner has had a busier career. Switching from route to sprint and turf to dirt, he set a small new lifetime best of 86 last time out in a 75k optional claiming race here a month ago. In a small sample of 5 races, sprinters have won 4 of the 5 at this distance, not to mention 13% at posts 1-3.
Tip Sheet I mainly like being that he’s the lone deep closer of the field.
Odds impact will be minimal. Audible will be even more of a favorite choice.  Mississippi, the wise guy selection at 12-1, should get bet down to single digits, but not as a major contender.  Tip Sheet may well be ignored by the public.

2018 Dubai World Cup racecard selections/analysis

Amidst a busy work schedule, I found time to handicap the 8 thoroughbred races at Dubai’s Meydan Racecourse. I’ll be checking some of these races live, and will be anticipating the odds for the Dubai World Cup in the late morning. Post time is 9:50 PT.
It was rather time consuming to handicap these races, mostly for watching the trips and for having to create my own speed figures for the horses I felt were best in contention. That typed, I present my top 3 for each of the races:

GODOLPHIN MILE: Rosa Imperial, Economic Model, Second Summer. Overlays: Akito Crescent, Rosa Imperial, Second Summer, and Muntazah. Rosa Imperial in 6th lifetime race shipping via France, she was improving in form first after layoff. Trainer Andre Fabre starts her at a lightweight 121.

Skipping race 2, as there is a lack of available info and there being Arabian horses, I move to race 3, the DUBAI GOLD CUP. Parviz, Sheikhzayedroad, Vazirabad. Overlays are my top 2 here. Parviz has raced in Germany and France, plus even once in Qatar. Waiting a month to stretch from 1-9/16 to 2 miles, he carries just 121.

UAE DERBY: Mendelssohn, Seahenge, Ruggero. Overlays: Seahenge, Ruggero, Reride, Taiki Ferveur. Mendelssohn a deserving favorite here. Seahenge my top value horse here. Running in the UK in 6 lifetime races, he has a Grade 2 win plus also his maiden debut. I like that he improved first after layoff.

AL QUOZ SPRINT: Stormy Liberal, Washington DC, Blue Point. Overlays are my top 2. Stormy Liberal with 8 wins in 24. Last win was last year’s Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. He had won 5 of 6 to that point. 2nd in the Daytona at Santa Anita last time, following a 10 week layoff and first race since the layoff. Fastest of horses entering the race with some trouble in his last trip.

GOLDEN SHAHEEN: Mind Your Biscuits, Roy H, Wild Dude (single overlay). Wild Dude has raced mainly in Dubai. 3rd in a Grade 3 event there last time out while just off layoff, he improved well on the leader.

DUBAI TURF: Deirdre, Neorealism, Real Steel. Overlays:include my top 2, plus Monarchs Glen and War Decree. Deirdre has only raced in Japan. A switch back to jockey Christophe Lemaire, with whom he won the Grade 1 Shuka So 3 races back. Cuts back 2 furlongs and carries just 121 here.

DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC: Cloth Of Stars, Idaho, Khalidi. 2nd and 3rd choice plus Desert Encounter are overlays. Khalidi a champion runner in GB winning at good class level tho not at the very top levels just yet. 7th first after layoff last time out tho with an increase in speed (perhaps he liked the switch to Lingfield’s all-weather).

 

DUBAI WORLD CUP: Forever Unbridled, West Coast, Pavel. Overlays: involve my 1st and 3rd selections plus Furia Cruzada.
Forever Unbridled has multiple Grade 1 wins here in the US, including the Personal Ensign, the Beldame and the Apple Blossom. 17-8-3-4 lifetime. Prior wins straight off layoff. Waiting since November to stretch 1 furlongs.Carries just 121 pounds.

A bit later, I’ll get you my Florida Derby and Gulfstream Park Oaks analysis.

my latest PGA Tour player rankings

Entering the Houston Open…here are 3 players I’m targeting for a good tournament, with top-5 placements in different categories…

Justin Thomas: Holes per eagle, scoring average, fairway proximity, approaches from over 200 yards, scrambling 10-20 yards (leader), par breakers, round 1 scoring, round 3 scoring, round 4 scoring, final round, front 9 scoring, back 9 scoring, early scoring, par 4 and par 5 scoring, par 4 and 5 birdie or better.

Kevin Chappell: approaches 200-225 yards, round 4 scoring, final round scoring, bounce back

Dustin Johnson: Holes per eagle, birdie and scoring average, rough and right rough proximity, approaches from over 275 yards and over 100 yards, putts per round, putts per round in round 1, birdie or better conversion percentage, par breakers, round 2 and 3 scoring, front and back 9 scoring, early and late scoring, par 4 and 5 scoring, birdie or better, bounce back.

my TVG Super 8 picks and analysis

This week’s TVG Super 8 contest (5+ wins out of 8, and you cash) covers various races at Santa Anita and Gulfstream. Here’s how I see them:
Santa Anita race 2: 3YO maidens at the 54k level, 7 furlongs, dirt. Top 3 are all faves: Once On Whiskey, Paddock Pick and Facts Matter. Totally a passable race. No overlays to be found. Odds movement is proportional to the morning-line.

Santa Anita race 3: Optional-claim race 40k, non-winners of 2, fillies/mares 4YO+ running 6 furlongs on dirt. Top 3: Powder, Bad Ju Ju, Time For Ebby. No overlays here either. Odds, however suggest that Powder will be largely ignored and fall into overlay status. I think she’s an easy favorite, so I’d play her at 5-1 or worse. Stretch out to 6 furlongs is no problem here. She’s also been on layoff for about a month, and she’s won previously on layoff. Track bias is kind to pure sprinters, at a 43% over 80 races during the meet. Posts 4-7 are winning 16% too. Last out run was a small improvement at 1st call, seizing the lead for a while at 2nd call.

Gulfstream Park race 9 is a 5 furlong turf race for 4YOs+, optional claimers at 25k, non-winners of 2. Top 3 are Imprimis, Lost for Words and Our Independence. Overlays are Lost for Words and One Lucky Step. No real impact will be felt by any changes in odds.
Lost for Words is the only horse in the field with a recent small new top, even if he is a slight bounce risk. Was 86 speed last out vs 16k maidens here and at this level of claim, nearly wiring the field. Has blazing speed down the backstretch. 7-2-1-1 at GP lifetime. Gets 5-lb jockey allowance.
One Lucky Step also a bounce risk, moving from 75 to year’s best of 83. Very nice run last time out…3rd consecutive run directly off layoff, increasing at 2nd call point, and one place and 1 length on leader at that point.

Gulfstream Park race 10: Maiden race, 3YOs, 6 furlongs, 55k. Top 3 are Gran Togoshi, Elusive Hero, Breaking The Rules. Gran Togoshi the live overlay here. Stretches .5 furlong from his debut, a 71 last month here at similar class, tho a bit of a tough trip. He did improve a bit in pace and order by the 2nd call there. Breaking the Rules as a first time starter l like for the good pedigree (War Front/Protesting out of AP Indy). Very good work tab in prep…most works at GP, and a few bullets.

Gulfstream Park race 11: 8.5 furlongs on the turf course, for 4YOs+, 62.5k optional claimers. Top 3 are overlay Bronson, then favorites Conquest Sandman and Deeply Undervalued.
Bronson has superbly consistent numbers, running 84 to 88 in 8 straight. Blinkers off for this race, first time in 7 races. Prior shipping wins and similar cutback win early in career. 6 works here in prep, 4 of them rather fast.
Odds prediction: Look for Conquest Sandman to take favorite status here. Rocketry should drop from public favorite here. JR’s Holiday should take more $, considering he’s 2 removed from his lifetime best, and has a great work tab himself. The horse that will be largely ignored is Keep Quiet. I don’t believe he will drop far enough to be an overlay. I like the breeding (Elusive City/Luminosity, out of Sillery). Also he’s been off since November and is 2 races removed from a Grade 3 win.

Santa Anita race 6: 30k maiden fillies event, 3YOs, 21k purse, 6 furlongs. Top 3 here are favored Tengs Rhythm and Lucky Lula, then Stylist. Overlay is Quizlet.
Stylist impresses for me as a first time starter…a bunch of runs here, the majority of them were competitively fast.
Odds change: Little to no impact on the morning-line. I’d use Stylist with favorites here.

Gulfstream Park race 13: 7.5 furlongs on turf for maiden 3YOs, 20k level. Top 3 are all overlays: Particularly, Calypso Deep and Time For War.
Odds should not move much at all compared to morning-line.
Particularly 2 races back improved on his 1st race following layoff, suggesting he’s back in form now. Peaked at 74 first after claim at 5 furlongs, dropping to 66 last time tho increased in lengths vs leader by 2nd call for the first time. On a good uptick in pace. Adds blinkers for the first time.
Calypso Deep is waiting about a month to stretch from 6 furlongs. Gained 2 lengths on leader at 2nd call last time out.
Time For War is a first time starter with a few good fast works to prepare.

Santa Anita race 8 is for 3YO maiden fillies, running 6 furlongs, 30k claiming level. Top 3 are longshot overlay Calimonco Action, Ride Lady Ride and Dee Way To Go. Heather’s Wish also an overlay here.
Calimonco Action I suppose is quite the risk at 30-1. I happen to like the fact that she carries 5 lbs at 117, and she’s waited a month to stretch out half a furlong. Gained a length on leader last time out also. Ride Lady Ride set new top of 70 last time out vs 54k maiden fillies in debut on turf. Adds blinkers here and is up for a tag for the first time. Heather’s Wish as a first time starter has a number of fast local works.
I would not expect the odds to change all that much compared to morning-line.

Enlightened Trails update (Fair Grounds, Sunland Park)

4 big races in the Enlightened Trails this weekend, both at Sunland Park and Fair Grounds. I’m planning to follow these races and also check out the Super 8 wager by TVG…5 wins, and I split $3k. I’ve had as many as 4. I’m feeling good about trying for 5. Last weekend I scored 4 wins of 8 in The Racing Biz’s mostly monthly contest, all races at Laurel Park. I finished 2nd overall. No word on prizes just yet.

 

Going in race order we start with the Fair
Grounds Oaks, 3YO fillies running 8.5
furlongs in this Grade 2 event, for a 400k
purse. My top 3 are America’s Tale, favored Wonder Gadot, and Eskimo Kisses.
Others that seem worthy but outside shots at best are favored Classy Act, and my other overlay, Saguaro Row.

America’s Tale dazzled in his 5th attempt to
break maiden, reaching 100 BRIS. Followed it
up with a 91 vs 50k claimers, then fell to 7th
and a 56th in the 150k Silverbulletday. She’s
waited the longest to stretch out, 10 weeks.
4 works at FG, last 2 very fast.
Saguaro Row impressed in his debut race vs 40k maiden fillies, 4.5 length win over 6 furlongs at Laurel last September, 80 Brisnet. Not fared as well running routes, burning money with finishes of 4th and 5th, with runs in the 70s. Jockey Gary Stevens has yet to ride this meet. The only reason I like him is that he actually improved on his 2nd call number last time out, first after claim and 3.5 month layoff.
Odds movement:  All horses with some ability will take more money, but it will all move proportionately, no advantage being found here.

 

***************
Next is the big one for the colts, the Grade
2, $1 million Louisiana Derby, 9 furlongs on
the Fair Grounds track. Top 3 are favored
Noble Indy and My Boy Jack, plus
overlay/longshot Givemeaminit.
Givemeaminit broke maiden status after 8
races, with a 91 Brisnet against 41k
maidens. Prior to that race, after 3 routes he
was switched to routes and ran a close 2nd
in the statebred LA Futurity with a 97.
Generally competitive speeds and finishes
through his career. Last out, he was 8th of 9
in the Risen Star, with an 86. I figure that
with that bounce he should bounce back
stronger here.
As for the odds changes…favored Bravazo,
Snapper Sinclair should be bet way down.
Dark Templar should be bet down to 8-1 or
9-1, out of double-digits. Hyndford will
stay as a value horse but bet down some.
Noble Indy will also be a big favorite at post
time. 2 horses will be rather ignored:
Retirement Fund and the aforementioned
Givemeaminit. Dark Templar is off of 2
small new tops starting his 3YO career. Not
sure I like him enough as a contender here.
Hyndford has posted a pair of good pace
numbers beyond his debut but also is a dark
horse for me. Retiirement Fund is only
interesting in that his breeding is rather
good compared to these
(Eskendereya/Northern Station, out of Street
Cry). I’m choosing to ignore, at my peril,
that’s he’s 2-for-2 here, with a peak 94
Brisnet number.

 

********************
Next up is the Sunland Park Oaks, for 3YO fillies going 8.5 furlongs, and a 200k purse. Top 3 in this small field are Kram, Blamed and longshot Bella Be Ready. No overlays projected in this race.
Bella Be Ready is the one filly I’d focus on for any value. Maiden no more after 5 races, scoring big with an 81 and small new top last time vs older horses. She makes her 3rd straight race here, and first as a route and beyond maiden status.
All except Exotic Beauty will see a good amount of interest by the public. The favored horses will stay that way. Bella Be Ready will get bet down from longshot to respectable value, pretty much as a wise guy pick. Exotic Beauty has good breeding but otherwise doesn’t really belong in this race.

******************
Finally there is the Sunland Derby, a Grade 3 event for top 3YOs, going 9 furlongs for $800k. Top 3 here are overlay Hollywood Star, Seven Trumpets and Choo Choo. Note that the ML favorite, All Out Blitz is set at 4-1. It may well be a race to capitalize on odds, regardless of choice.
Hollywood Star is the lone early closer of the field. Won his debut vs 47k maidens last June with an 85. 2nd in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special with an 88, then 2nd in the Iroquois (Grade 3) with a 91, his route debut. 86 and 6th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, then 4th last out in the SF Davis, scoring a 90. 4 fast works in prep, last one a bullet at Gulfstream. Improved 2nd call score last time out, 3 months removed from layoff.
Seven Trumpets won his 2nd maiden race, then won a 75k claimer, then was 2nd in the 150k Jerome. All three races were run in the early 90s. 7th last time out in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes, scoring a 75. His last 2 races were his first routes, tho both were muddy tracks. I like the pattern of figures and he’d be best mudder if we see rain on Sunday. His claiming win came carrying 4 lbs extra, and carries 5 more to 122 on Sunday.
Choo Choo won his 3rd maiden race with an 81, then was 4th in the Cecil B DeMille scoring an 86, folowed by a 3rd in the Eddie Logan, posting an 87. Matched the 87 score in the California Derby (debut on all-weather), then 5th last time out in the El Camino Real, posting a 94 and taking a 3-wide turn. I like his pedigree (English Channel/Cho Cho San, out of Deputy Minister), and I like the slow progression of fast figures. I expect him to be fastest among those in the backstretch.

Odds changes: This is going to be a busy race, odds flying back and forth, tho probably not too much true variance. Runaway Ghost should be bet way down from 8-1, possibly to being the favorite. All Out Blitz likely will be bet as 3rd favorite. Hollywood Star to be ignored, and fall down to 5th in wagering. Dream Baby Dream should get some more attention to middle of the pack. Prince Lucky and Choo Choo will be ignored somewhat too. Fortified Effort, whom I think is truly the best horse outside of my own 20 in the Enlightened Trails, should see a good deal more action but remain a longshot. Ditto for Shane Zain but not as much. Seven Trumpets may be overlooked a bit here.

 

 

A few handicapping insights

 

I’ve wanted to revisit my older posts and dust off a few thoughts that may help contribute to your handicapping. I have let go of turn-time, mainly because it’s a ton of extra math that I don’t always have time for. It’s cut my research time somewhat, and I’ve needed to.
One such matter re handicapping is zigging where others zag. Or zagging, zig. You want the perceived advantage, or the horse that not many are looking to that is still commanding some $.
A big race, or a track with a large attendance/handle will move money consistently, and therefore you’ll see a quicker change in odds. I like to see the odds be more gradual, but this is how it is. If you play a nondescript race at Laurel, there won’t be nearly as much $ as would the Kentucky Derby at Churchill. When the odds are stable for longer, you can be more confident and bet accordingly instead of hanging onto every last minute, wondering if the odds will move that extra bit, triggering a fit in your system. That hesitancy caused me to miss out on playing exactas in the Oaks Future Wager.
ML odds are set by the track handicapper, who theoretically wants every horse to have an equal chance to win. To that end, if the ML favorite is as low as 3-1, or even 4-1 or 9/2, this may indicate a lack of confidence in the best horse. Those are races you should pounce on…especially if it’s, again, a big class race, or it’s a major track, or on a weekend. The other types of races you want to seize upon are where there is the one favorite better than 4-1. It’s a race you may want try more mutuel bets on, maybe even some exactas, within reason. Also, as a general handicapping rule, look for races where your top 2 horses are not favorites…races where at the very least you can play against the favorite(s) in the win column, and definitely out of the win and place column.

I have attempted to figure out why some horses are bet more than others on a regular basis. It can stem from many factors. But the truth is, there are so many that bet recreationally (based on lucky numbers, colors, what’s in the paper program at the track, what-have-you), and the popular, available sort of stats, that one ignores angles and buys into the hype… A smaller number of players have some smarts about the game but maybe not enough know-how (or bankroll, or time) to devote to the sport. Fewer still are those true pros who pay big for handicapping contests and create their own angles and systems, trusting in their beliefs and instincts. WIthin these classes of players, I pick out which variables seem important to some than others. My job is to anticipate where the $2 bettors’ money is going…and to where it isn’t.
Here are examples of angles that are overbet: Any pace/track trend related stats
Jockeys/trainer % (except for trainer angles)
Trainer reclaims
Workouts

What gets underbet: Layoffs, horses recovering in pace, false sprinters (those who lately haven’t found the lead in a race), trips, specific trainer angles, track bias, changes by trainer and related improvements by horse last time out
What I will do with future analysis is to weight the positives with negatives and guess which horses will move the most or least, and by how much.

 

Enlightened Trails update 3/18/18

It’s about time that i deliver a
comprehensive update on the Trails. I’ve
updated all point totals and projections on
who are in my field of 20 if the Derby Trail
ended today.
Remember that I’m choosing one race per
track (Del Mar 2, as they hosted the Breeders
Cup) that best fits the Trail, with an
appropriate point ranking for the top 4 in
each race. More are given to Graded races
and 3YO races.
Top 4 of horses points within their own
division make the show. If there are ties,
they are first broken by the graded level,
then purse, then distance.
When defections from the Trail occur, or
there are horses in multiple divisions, I then
draw from horses between the divisions
where the tie exists, and then use points,
purse, grade and distance as the tiebreakers.

Here’s the updated spreadsheet:

 

 

MINORS
This division has wrapped up as of 3/17.
The winners of 4 of the 5 3YO races are all
in. Those horses are:
Reride, Primo Tech, Paced, and VIP Code.
Take Charge Deputy is on the outside here,
as he won a small stakes event in Portland
Meadows…15k too small compared to
others.

NORTHEAST
One race remains, that being the Wood
Memorial on 4/7.
Top 4 right now are Firenze Fire, Sporting
Chance, Untamed Domain and Good Magic.
Free Drop Billy and Hemp Hemp Hurray are
outside of these (but read on about how this
gets resolved)
The Wood Memorial will seal the fate of
these horses. It’s likely that a win or 2nd will
make my Derby Trail version a lock for such
a horse.

SOUTH
Each race is taking place for the 3YOs. With
just the Tampa Bay Derby in the books, the
top 4 there are in: Quip, Flameaway, World
Of Trouble and Vino Rosso. The Louisiana
Derby comes up on Saturday 3/24. Of
these, Quip and Vino Rosso are nominated.
Quip likely won’t need the race, but World Of
Trouble could use it. Flameaway should be a
lock in also.

CALI
3 of the races took place last year. One
remains, in the form of the Santa Anita
Derby on 4/7. Top 4 right now are Bolt d’
Oro, McKinzie, Good Magic, and Solomini.
Good Magic already has a top 4 spot in the
Northeast. To resolve, I looked at those who
ran in either the Northeast or Cali and took
the one with the most overall points. Free
Drop Billy broke a tie with Hemp Hemp
Hurray, Zatter and Intelligent Regard, having
won at Grade 1 and a 350k purse, that race
being the Hopeful at Saratoga. Free Drop
Billy qualifies out of Cali, with Good Magic
representing the Northeast

HEARTLAND:
2 races already took place for the 2YOs, and
1 for 3YOs. Another is on Sunday, the
Sunland Derby, followed by the Blue Grass,
and the Arkansas Derby. Top 4 here are
Blended Citizen (only other horse in 4
digits), Pony Up, Aramak (top 3 in the Jet
Ruby), and Enticed. Greyvitos on the outside
looking, scoring a win in a listed stakes but
not a graded win.

 

My own biggest snub is easily Fortified
Effort. 2nd to Primo Touch in the Turf
Paradise Derby, he was 2nd to Themistor in
the Gold Rush Futurity at Arapahoe Park.

Comparing my horses to the actual Derby
Trail, a number of horses stand out as
exceptions to my rule: Bravazo, Promises
Fulfilled, Bravazo, Magnum Moon,
Combatant, Snapper Sinclair, Strike Power,
Old Time Revival. Instilled Regard, Catholic
Boy, My Boy Jack, Greyvitos are not in the
field for me but they all have enough actual
points. A good deal of parity, but we’ll see
how this coming weekend’s races impact the
trails.

 

Here’s the Oaks spreadsheet:

 

 

The difference with the Oaks is that there
are actually 14 runners max, and I choose
top 3 from my divisions, and top 2 of the
minors. Speaking of those small tracks and
races:

MINORS:
Here again with just the Sunland Park Oaks
remaining, 2 horses remain in contention
following a big tiebreak: Go Noni Go and
Smokinpaddylassie. They both won 100k
races at the same distance. For this, I’ll
break the tie by awarding the edge to the
horse with more overall ponts. Go Noni Go is
that filly. She finished 3rd in the Kentucky
Downs Juvenile Fillies. The winner of the
Sunland Park Oaks will get the top spot, with
Go Noni Go 2nd, unless there’s some other
unforeseen result.

CALI
This division rather cut-and-dried. The winners of the 3 stakes races at 2 are in the forefront: Moonshine Memories, Caledonia Road (tiebreak edge), and Dream Tree. Notably, Piedi Bianchi is next out. FInal race is the Santa Anita Oaks on 4/7. Top 2 of that race, plus Caledonia Road, should be how the Trails resolve here.

SOUTH:
Just 3 races but all at 3. Fair Grounds Oaks next Saturday is the 2nd of the 3. So far, top 3 of the Florida Oaks qualify: Andina Del Sur, Goodthingstaketime, Altea. Winner of the Fair Grounds Oaks and Gulfstream Park Oaks project to be the 3 I use.

NORTHEAST:
The influence from this division comes from 4 races at 2. The last one is the Gazelle at Aqueduct. Between 4 winners, I had to eliminate (for now) Pacific Gale, who won the listed Sorority Stakes at Monmouth. The others have won more classy races: Separation Of Powers (1st Frizette, 3rd Spinaway), Lady Ivanki (Spinaway winner), Capla Temptress (Natalma winner)
Top 2 in the Gazelle should be a lock for a win via this region.

HEARTLAND:
2 races remain at 2YO, 2 remain for the 3YOs. Top 3 currently are Ultima D, Road To Victory and Monomoy Girl, who wins tiebreak over Best Performances. Next up is the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland 4/7, and the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn 4/13.

 

My snub here is Testing One Two, who won the 60k Take Charge Brandi at Delta Downs. The purse is 40k cheaper than ther Bourbonette Oaks and Beyond The Wire Stakes.

 

As for actual Oaks points, here are the discrepancies:
Midnight Bisou, Midnight Disguise, Cosmic Burst, Rayya, Take Charge Paula, Wonder Gadot, Thirteen Squared, Amy’s Challenge, Classy Act, Patrona Margarita, Red Ruby, Sassy Sienna, That’s a lot of fillies.