With the release of the past performances of the Triple Crown nominees and Future Wager Pool 2 entrants, I had a lot of work ahead of me. But it’s good, solid work, all leading up to those magic moments on the First Saturday in May. By the way, do get the DVD of that very title. Great drama about 6 different horses and their personnel on the road to the 2006 Derby. 50-1 is also an excellent movie, that being the story of Mine That Bird.
For the nominations, I examined my Sire Future Wager picks to determine what horses I have going for me, and compar6-1ed those to whom I , considered key horses when the Wager took place. I cannot find a reliable list at this time that outlines nominees by sires. Here are my 5 sires for 2018: Curlin 6-1, 11 horses; Into Mischief 16-1, 10 horses; Scat Daddy 26-1, 9 horses; Tapit 8-1, 22 horses; Union Rags 28-1, 7 horses.
The final Enlightened Trail lists are out. Updates are at the links at the home page.
On to Pool 2!
The same categories were used as with Pool 1: AWD, top class win, best BRIS speed at Churchill, fastest Binomial pace, longest distance won at, and pace progress qualifiers.
All but 1 horse qualified at one stat, 3 at 5, 5 more with 3, and 7 more with 2.
Here, to remind you, is who I already have win bets on:
Avery Island 29-1
Free Drop Billy 33-1
Good Magic 11-1
Untamed Domain 29-1
This pool’s benchmarks: Combined 15.0 in AWD, any run at Churchill, Grade 1 win, binomial pace number of 579 (translates to projected BRIS of 96.5), 8.5 furlong win, any pace progress
The wager will be $2 wins, based on my top 5 in the ranking, providing they fall within these guidelines: Such a horse must not be better than 6-1; also if I have a wager on that horse in Pool 1, it must be at least better in payout by $10. Look to the left-side number of the odds; if that number becomes higher by 5, and it’s not based on 2 or 5 on the right side, then that is a win play. For example, Good Magic must be worse than 16-1, or Free Drop Billy worse then 38-1).
I’ve the feeling we might have to dig deep to get to a solid top 5, so I’ll go those in the tiebreak for 2 variables.
13th: Copper Bullet, winner of the Saratoga Special (Grade 2) and 2nd in the Bashford Manor at Churchill. Still slow compared to these, has not run a route yet, and never ran past Labor Day at 2.
12th: Mendelssohn was bred in KY, raced at the Curragh in Ireland, winning his 2nd maiden race, then was 2nd in his 2nd GB race, which was the G1 Darley Dewhurst. Won his US debut, the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Only 1 BRIS number to go on, so I went with the Racing Post’s RPR rating and took 86% of that number to convert back to BRIS, and followed accordingly. Pace progress seems fine, but, outside of class, lacks in all other areas.
11th: Firenze Fire won the G3 Sanford, the G1 Champagne, and the Jerome. The Champagne was her best score yet, a 96. Still lacking in all other categories.
10th: Enticed I will play if 61-1 or worse. Chances are he’d have to be totally forgotten about here for that to happen. Won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill, 4th in the Holy Bull. Best speed was 93, in the KYJC. AWD numbers just a tad short of my benchmark. Never ran before Labor Day.
9th: Catholic Boy won his debut at 50k maiden, then the G3 With Anticipation, 4th in the BC Juvenile Turf, then won the Grade 2 Remsen in his dirt debut. Comes out of that 98 score, a sharp increase from his other races….still a bit slow overall. AWD numbers also a bit short. His 9 furlong win in the Remsen makes him one to be careful about. Positive pace progress also.
Next we get to those with 3 matching variables which extend into my top 5…these horses are more likely to earn my wagers:
8th: Tiz Mischief: Won 3rd maiden race. 2nd maiden was 93 BRIS at CD. 2nd in the KYJC, matching that number. 3rd last out in the Holy Bull. No win at the Graded level is some concern, as is the low AWD number. Speed is also a bit slow overall. I like the 8.5 furlongs win for his maiden breaker, which also qualified him for better pace progress.
7th: Untamed Domain must be 34-1 or worse for me to play. Since Pool 1, he was on layoff, and returned to be 3rd in the G3 Dania Beach at Gulstream Park last week. Best score is just 89, 2nd in the BC Juvenile Turf. Son of Animal Kingdom, dam is black-type producer Ciao, out of European Graded stakes winner Lear Fan. Won the With Anticipation, 8.5 furlongs, proved pace progress with his win in the Summer Stakes. Slow pace numbers, no runs at CD yet.
6th: Sporting Chance is a sprinter who has never been worse than 2nd at any call in 3 sprints. 2nd in his debut at CD, then won vs 83k maidens, then won the Grade 1 Hopeful with a big 98 score. AWD numbers are rather low as are his overall pace numbers.
Now for my top 5:
5th: SOLOMINI: Won his maiden debut vs 60k maidens, 2nd in the G1 Front Runner, 2nd in the BC Juvenile, winner of the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity. 3 small new tops in his last 3, peaking at 101. Never raced before Labor Day. AWD numbers just below threshold. One of the faster horses in the field of 23.
4th: AVERY ISLAND. Will play if 34-1 or worse. Somehow I don’t see that happening. Since Pool 1, he was 2nd in the Remsen, then won the Grade 3 Withers last week at 9 furlongs. Prior pace numbers a bit slow to rank him better. Sired by Street Sense, dam-sire is the world-class AP Indy. Positive pace progress, including 4 new tops (3 small).
3rd: GOOD MAGIC I will play if 16-1 or worse. Another I feel could be hugely played, and therefore one I could pass on. Status quo reigns, as he has not run since winning the BC Juvenile 11/4, earning a 105 BRIS. Sire is Curlin, dam-sire is Hard Spun. One of the faster horses in the group. Lot to like about him, tho he hasn’t run at CD yet.
2nd: FREE DROP BILLY I will wager on if he’s 38-1 or worse. Another who should be better than that anyway, so likely to pass him up. Since Pool 1, ran 2nd in the Holy Bull. Sired by Union Rags, damsire is Giant’s Causeway. One run at CD, a 77, winning his maiden debut at the 47k level last June. Somewhat uneven in pace, but did strike a 99 last time out in the Holy Bull.
1st: BOLT D’ORO: Only negative for him is that he’s stuck to racing in Cali and hasn’t seen CD yet. Otherwise, he’s fully qualified to be picked and to win. I avoided him last time because I felt he would be rather favored. Here it’s likely he’ll be better than 6-1 and probably one to pass. No races since Pool 1. Sire is Medaglia d’Oro, damsire AP Indy. 2 G1 wins, peak score of 105 in the Front RUnner, match with a 99 last out in the BC Juvenile.
The exacta wager will involve my top 3 to each other, plus the ‘all others” in spot #24.
Bolt d’Oro/Free Drop Billy/Good Magic are my top 3 here.
In Pool 1 I went this way:
Bolt D’Oro (7-1), Enticed (56-1), Good Magic (11-1), field